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Exponential Planning

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Rethinking the way that project planning can evolve in government.

Published in: Government & Nonprofit
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Exponential Planning

  1. 1. EXPONENTIAL PLANNINGA PLAYBOOK TO PLAN FOR THE FUTURE
  2. 2. EXPONENTIAL PLANNING PROJECT MANAGEMENT INSTITUTE (PMI & PMP) PLANNING
  3. 3. RESOURCE MANAGEMENT PLANNING (RMP) EXPONENTIAL PLANNING
  4. 4. COMPREHENSIVE PLANNING EXPONENTIAL PLANNING
  5. 5. URBAN DESIGN PLANNING EXPONENTIAL PLANNING
  6. 6. THERE ARE MATERIAL WEAKNESSES IN THE WAY WE PLAN PROJECTS IN CITIES. EXPONENTIAL PLANNING
  7. 7. CONSTITUENT BEHAVIOR AND A RAPIDLY CHANGING TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE MAKE IT VITAL FOR GOVERNMENT (AND BUSINESSES) TO CONSIDER A VARIETY OF NEW FACTORS AND RISKS IN PLANNING. THIS APPLIES TO EVERYTHING - A CAPITAL PROJECT OR PIECE OF LAND. EXPONENTIAL PLANNING
  8. 8. EXPONENTIAL PLANNING IS AN OVERLAY ON TRADITIONAL PLANNING PROCESSES, DESIGNED TO EVALUATE FUTURE TRENDS & RISKS THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON GOVERNMENT PROJECTS, AS WELL AS A FUTURE-TARGET TO PLAN PROJECTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH. EXPONENTIAL PLANNING
  9. 9. DEFINE PROJECT, LAND USE, OR OTHER ELEMENT TO START PLANNING PROCESS. MAP ADJACENT IMPACT AREAS EXPONENTIAL ANALYSIS IDENTIFY MACRO-TRENDS PROJECT INITIATION IDENTIFY POTENTIAL IMPACTS (RISKS, CHANGES IN BEHAVIOR) TRADITIONAL PLANNING AND/OR PROJECT MANAGEMENT STEPS. (I.E. PROJECT EXECUTION / MANAGEMENT) STAKEHOLDERS BUDGET SCOPE PROJECTED OUTCOMES ETC. CREATE PREDICTION STATEMENTS EXPONENTIAL PLANNING OVERLAY EXPONENTIAL PLANNING INTEGRATE INTO OVERALL PLAN
  10. 10. EXAMPLE. EXPONENTIAL PLANNING
  11. 11. SCENARIO 1: THE CITY OF AUSTIN IS CURRENTLY CONSIDERING MODIFICATIONS TO MOPAC TO EASE TRAFFIC AND INCREASE CAPACITY. EXPONENTIAL PLANNING
  12. 12. TRADITIONAL METHODS WOULD ONLY INVOLVE ANALYZING TRAFFIC PATTERNS, ANTICIPATED GROWTH, RIGHT-OF-WAY AVAILABILITY, ETC. TO CREATE A SERIES OF RECOMMENDATIONS ON CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS. BUT, LET’S LOOK AT IT THROUGH AN EXPONENTIAL LANDSCAPE ANALYSIS. EXPONENTIAL PLANNING
  13. 13. STEP 1: LET’S MAP THE ADJACENT IMPACT AREAS SELF-DRIVING CARSE-COMMERCE RIDESHARING INDIVIDUAL BEHAVIOR EXPONENTIAL PLANNING
  14. 14. STEP 2: LET’S IDENTIFY CORRESPONDING MACRO-TRENDS E-COMMERCE EXPONENTIAL PLANNING
  15. 15. SELF-DRIVING CARS STEP 2: LET’S IDENTIFY CORRESPONDING MACRO-TRENDS EXPONENTIAL PLANNING
  16. 16. RIDESHARING STEP 2: LET’S IDENTIFY CORRESPONDING MACRO-TRENDS EXPONENTIAL PLANNING
  17. 17. INDIVIDUAL BEHAVIOR STEP 2: LET’S IDENTIFY CORRESPONDING MACRO-TRENDS EXPONENTIAL PLANNING
  18. 18. STEP 3: IDENTIFY POTENTIAL IMPACTS EXPONENTIAL PLANNING E-COMMERCE = INDIVIDUAL BEHAVIOR HAS FORCED COMPANIES TO ALSO ADAPT THEIR MODELS AND BECOME DIGITAL COMPANIES. THE RISE OF SAME DAY SHIPPING HAS MINIMIZED THE NEED FOR INDIVIDUALS TO DRIVE TO PHYSICAL PLACES.
  19. 19. STEP 3: IDENTIFY POTENTIAL IMPACTS EXPONENTIAL PLANNING SELF-DRIVING CARS= SELF-DRIVING CARS ARE NOT DECADES AWAY, BUT THEY HAVE A VERY PREDICTABLE PATH. IN FACT UBER IS ROLLING OUT THEIR FIRST SELF-DRIVING TAXI TEST IN SEPTEMBER 2016.
  20. 20. STEP 3: IDENTIFY POTENTIAL IMPACTS EXPONENTIAL PLANNING RIDESHARING= ONE OF THE MOST DISRUPTIVE IMPACTS ON TRANSPORTATION IS RIDESHARING THROUGH COMPANIES LIKE UBER AND LYFT. THEY ARE ALSO GOING THROUGH THEIR OWN BUSINESS MODEL DISRUPTION AS MORE PEOPLE (20% GLOBALLY) ARE OPTING TO SHARE THEIR SHARED RIDE WITH OTHERS (I.E. CAR-POOL MEETS UBER)
  21. 21. STEP 3: IDENTIFY POTENTIAL IMPACTS EXPONENTIAL PLANNING INDIVIDUAL BEHAVIOR= PREFERENCES ARE CHANGING BASED ON COSTS, COMMUTING, AND THE RISE OF A NEW GENERATION THAT DRIVES DIFFERENT (AND OWNS LESS).
  22. 22. STEP 4: CREATE PREDICTION STATEMENTS (WHERE APPLICABLE) EXPONENTIAL PLANNING RIDESHARING WILL REDUCE VEHICLES ON THE ROAD 10% BY 2020 Example
  23. 23. STEP 5: INTEGRATE INTO OVERALL PLAN EXPONENTIAL PLANNING Example PROJECTED REDUCTION IN VEHICLE OWNERSHIP BY 10% PROJECT START PROJECT COMPLETION 20202016 2025 THIS ENABLES YOU HAVE MAINTAIN A BIG PICTURE VIEW OF KEY VARIABLES THAT MAY IMPACT OVERALL PROJECT PLANNING.
  24. 24. THE OUTPUT FROM THIS PROCESS SHOULD BE INCORPORATED IN THE OVERALL PROJECT PLAN AND DETAILED IN CONJUNCTION WITH KEY PROJECT MILESTONES. EXPONENTIAL PLANNING
  25. 25. ADDITIONAL EXERCISES: EXPONENTIAL PLANNING
  26. 26. YOUR CITY IS ABOUT TO LAUNCH A BRAND NEW LIBRARY BRANCH. PERFORM AN EXPONENTIAL PLANNING ANALYSIS TO BETTER UNDERSTAND THE MACRO-TRENDS THAT APPLY. EXPONENTIAL PLANNING
  27. 27. WRITE THREE ADJACENT IMPACT AREAS THAT APPLY TO CITY- OWNED PARKING LOTS. EXPONENTIAL PLANNING
  28. 28. STUDY THE MARY MEEKER INTERNET TRENDS REPORT AND WRITE THREE PREDICTION STATEMENTS THAT MIGHT APPLY TO GOVERNMENT WEBSITES IN THE NEXT 5 YEARS. EXPONENTIAL PLANNING

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