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Exponential Government

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Keynote Presentation from Dustin Haisler & Paul W. Taylor at the New Orleans PCIO Summit in December 2015.

Published in: Government & Nonprofit

Exponential Government

  1. 1. @pwtaylor | @dustinhaisler
  2. 2. Exponen'al Defined Merriam Webster adjective ex·po·nen·tial ˌek-spə-ˈnen-chəl (1) very fast : increasingly rapid First known use: 1704
  3. 3. Something Different is Going On Chief Informa-on Officer Chief Technology Officer Chief Informa-on Security Officer Chief Innova-on Officer Chief of Performance and Technology Chief Data Officer Chief Data Scien-st Chief Digital Officer Chief Insights Officer Chief Architecture Officer Chief Research Officer Chief Resiliency Officer Chief Customer Officer Chief Analy-cs Officer Chief Privacy Officer Chief Connec-on Officer Chief Bicycle Officer Chief of Streets
  4. 4. Seeing Preferred Futures
  5. 5. Exponen'al Aging
  6. 6. Exponen'al Movement
  7. 7. Exponen'al Movement
  8. 8. Exponen'al Change Ray Kurzweil ”Technical progress is currently doubling every decade. The technological progress in the 21st century will be equivalent to what would require (in the linear view) on the order of 200 centuries. In contrast, the 20th century saw only about 25 percent of progress (at today’s rate of progress) since we have been speeding up to current rates. So, the 21st century will see almost a thousand times greater technological change than its predecessor.”
  9. 9. Exponen'al Change Singularity University
  10. 10. Brushes with the Exponen=al
  11. 11. Exponen'al Inves=ng
  12. 12. Exponen'al Inves=ng Vanguard
  13. 13. Bonds Int'l Small Cap Mid Cap Large Cap
  14. 14. Infrastructure Security xGov eGov Big Systems
  15. 15. Infrastructure Security xGov eGov Big Systems
  16. 16. Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U
  17. 17. Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U A G R I C U LT U R A L R E V O L U T I O N
  18. 18. Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U A G R I C U LT U R A L R E V O L U T I O N
  19. 19. Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U A G R I C U LT U R A L R E V O L U T I O N I N D U S T R I A L R E V O L U T I O N
  20. 20. Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U A G R I C U LT U R A L R E V O L U T I O N I N D U S T R I A L R E V O L U T I O N
  21. 21. Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U A G R I C U LT U R A L R E V O L U T I O N I N D U S T R I A L R E V O L U T I O N 8 , 0 0 0 Y E A R S
  22. 22. Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U I N D U S T R I A L R E V O L U T I O N 8 , 0 0 0 Y E A R S
  23. 23. Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U I N D U S T R I A L R E V O L U T I O N 8 , 0 0 0 Y E A R S
  24. 24. Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U I N D U S T R I A L R E V O L U T I O N
  25. 25. Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U I N D U S T R I A L R E V O L U T I O N L I G H T B U L B
  26. 26. Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U I N D U S T R I A L R E V O L U T I O N L I G H T B U L B
  27. 27. Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U I N D U S T R I A L R E V O L U T I O N L I G H T B U L B 1 2 0 Y E A R S
  28. 28. L I G H T B U L B Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U
  29. 29. L I G H T B U L B Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U
  30. 30. L I G H T B U L B M O O N L A N D I N G Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U
  31. 31. L I G H T B U L B M O O N L A N D I N G 9 0 Y E A R S Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U
  32. 32. L I G H T B U L B M O O N L A N D I N G 9 0 Y E A R S Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U
  33. 33. L I G H T B U L B M O O N L A N D I N G W O R L D W I D E W E B 9 0 Y E A R S Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U
  34. 34. L I G H T B U L B M O O N L A N D I N G W O R L D W I D E W E B 2 2 Y E A R S9 0 Y E A R S Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U
  35. 35. L I G H T B U L B M O O N L A N D I N G W O R L D W I D E W E B 2 2 Y E A R S9 0 Y E A R S Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U
  36. 36. L I G H T B U L B M O O N L A N D I N G W O R L D W I D E W E B 2 2 Y E A R S9 0 Y E A R S H U M A N G E N O M E S E Q U E N C E D Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U
  37. 37. L I G H T B U L B M O O N L A N D I N G W O R L D W I D E W E B 2 2 Y E A R S9 0 Y E A R S H U M A N G E N O M E S E Q U E N C E D 9 Y E A R S Adopted from Time Magazine & Singularity U
  38. 38. The World We Knew The ShiC The World Ahead Exponen'al Government Where to Start
  39. 39. The World We Knew
  40. 40. Finishing the eGovernment Experiment …
  41. 41. But Exponen:al is not just the new eGov …
  42. 42. Exponen:al is xGov …
  43. 43. Pivo=ng toward the Future
  44. 44. Pivo=ng toward the Future
  45. 45. Manual+Mechanical Means
  46. 46. Closed Expert Systems
  47. 47. . Infrastructure is King
  48. 48. A Compu'ng Mausoleum
  49. 49. Walled-Garden Mobility Pivot to Open PlaHorms
  50. 50. 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 Private Everything
  51. 51. Outsourced Change
  52. 52. • States on track to meet revenue projections: 41* • State debt levels decline for the first time in 28 years ** • Ending balances for cities nearing pre-recession highs, but still lower than 2006 levels • State pension shortfalls approaching $1 Trillion - gap between promised and available rising by 6% *** * NASBO ** Moody’s *** Pew Scarce Public Resources
  53. 53. IT’s Produc'vity Dividend State governments are leaving on the table $11 Billion
  54. 54. Exponen'al Bow Wave of 1% Raise Base: $50,000 Health Insurance: $15,000/year Source: Portland State University Hatfield School 1% Raise: $500 Health Insurance: $750 (+5%) PERS, PTO, FICA, UI, Payroll Taxes: $220 (45%) “Felt Raise” to Employee Cost to Public Employer Cost to Taxpayer Before Tax
  55. 55. Exponen'al Bow Wave of 1% Raise Base: $50,000 Health Insurance: $15,000/year Source: Portland State University Hatfield School 1% Raise: $500 Health Insurance: $750 (+5%) PERS, PTO, FICA, UI, Payroll Taxes: $220 (45%) “Felt Raise” to Employee Cost to Public Employer Cost to Taxpayer Before Tax $400
  56. 56. Exponen'al Bow Wave of 1% Raise Base: $50,000 Health Insurance: $15,000/year Source: Portland State University Hatfield School 1% Raise: $500 Health Insurance: $750 (+5%) PERS, PTO, FICA, UI, Payroll Taxes: $220 (45%) “Felt Raise” to Employee Cost to Public Employer Cost to Taxpayer Before Tax $400 $1420 $1800
  57. 57. The ShiC
  58. 58. Andy Grove’s Challenge
  59. 59. Moore, Metcalf and Reed
  60. 60. Moore, Metcalf and Reed Exponen'al Compu'ng, Networks, and Social
  61. 61. US Teens: Social Media is a Chore
  62. 62. Behavioral ShiCs
  63. 63. Individual ShiCs
  64. 64. Organiza:onal ShiCs S O U R C E : E X P O N E N T I A L O R G A N I Z AT I O N S
  65. 65. Societal ShiCs
  66. 66. IT Milestones
  67. 67. Everything-as-a-Service
  68. 68. Unbundled Everything
  69. 69. Unbundled Everything
  70. 70. What Does This Mean?
  71. 71. E F F O R T, A D O P T I O N C Y C L E S , T I M E T O M A R K E T C A P I TA L I Z AT I O N I S E X P O N E N T I A L LY D E C AY I N G . 1 2 3
  72. 72. Change Is Exponen=al
  73. 73. V The World Ahead
  74. 74. The Tech
  75. 75. Exponen:al Connected Devices
  76. 76. Exponen:al Compu=ng
  77. 77. Exponen:al Risks TODAY SOURCE: THE FUTURE X NETWORK (2015)
  78. 78. Exponen:al Cost Decay
  79. 79. The Future of Work
  80. 80. Work Today
  81. 81. F R E E L A N C I N G N O T F R E E L A N C I N G Work Today
  82. 82. Work in 2020 Freelancers Union
  83. 83. F R E E L A N C I N G N O T F R E E L A N C I N G Work in 2020 Freelancers Union
  84. 84. Millennials
  85. 85. Adap=ve Work Models
  86. 86. G O V E R N M E N T O R G A N I Z AT I O N S T H AT H A R N E S S E X P O N E N T I A L T E C H N O L O G I E S A N D M O D E L S O F W O R K .
  87. 87. P E O P L E
  88. 88. P E O P L E Infrastructure
  89. 89. P E O P L E Infrastructure People
  90. 90. P E O P L E Infrastructure People Intelligence
  91. 91. P E O P L E Infrastructure
  92. 92. Open Data Leveraged Connected Devices (IoT) Scalable Infrastructure Exponen:al Infrastructure Data Standards
  93. 93. Scalable Infrastructure
  94. 94. Leveraged Connected Devices
  95. 95. Open Data
  96. 96. Data Standards
  97. 97. Data Standards
  98. 98. P E O P L EPeople
  99. 99. Adaptive Organizational Structures On-Demand / Hybrid Labor Crowdsourced Work / Microtasking Exponen:al People
  100. 100. Crowdsourced Work
  101. 101. P R O B L E M S S O L U T I O N S F U N D I N G R E S E A R C H I M P L E M E N TAT I O N VA L I D AT I O N What Else Can Be Crowdsourced?
  102. 102. On-Demand/Hybrid Labor
  103. 103. Adap=ve Organiza:on Models L E A N - S TA RT U P M O V E M E N T A G I L E P R O J E C T M A N A G E M E N T H O L A C R A C Y
  104. 104. P E O P L E Intelligence
  105. 105. Predictive/Contextual User Experiences Exponen:al Intelligence Performance and Innovation Metrics Government-as-an-API Third-Party Data Integration
  106. 106. Third-Party Data Integra=on
  107. 107. Performance Metrics
  108. 108. Contextual Experiences
  109. 109. Piecing It All Together
  110. 110. P E O P L E Infrastructure People Intelligence
  111. 111. P E O P L E Infrastructure People Intelligence
  112. 112. Government-as-an-API
  113. 113. “Real people getting stuff done with — not despite — government has measurable economic and social benefits.”
  114. 114. In Ac=on
  115. 115. N E W U R B A N M E C H A N I C S I N N O VA T I O N I N C U B A T O R S
  116. 116. N E W U R B A N P R A C T I C E S P H I L A N T H R O P I C S U P P O R T F O R C I V I C I N N O VA T I O N
  117. 117. O F F I C E O F C I V I C I N N O VAT I O N
  118. 118. CHIEF INNOVATION/PERFORMANCE OFFICERS
  119. 119. I N N O VAT I O N L A B S
  120. 120. P U B L I C - P R I VAT E S H A R I N G PA R T N E R S H I P S
  121. 121. E N T R E P R E N E U R - I N - R E S I D E N C E D E L I V E RY S T R U C T U R E S
  122. 122. I N N O VAT I O N D E L I V E RY T E A M S
  123. 123. C O D E F O R A M E R I C A : B R I G A D E S
  124. 124. E M P L O Y E E - I N N O VAT I O N F U N D S
  125. 125. Where to Start With
  126. 126. Where to Start With 1. Start: The Covey Admonition 2. Take a Principled Approach 3. Non Linear Path: The Grove Imperative 4. Go Where the People Are 5. Launch and Learn 6. Educate Yourself & Your Employees 7. Experiment Like You Invest 8. Start a Conversation With Your Network 9. Embrace Constraints 10.Don’t Be Afraid to do Big Things
  127. 127. Paul W. Taylor, Chief Content Officer ptaylor@erepublic.com @pwtaylor Dustin Haisler, Chief Innovation Officer dhaisler@erepublic.com @dustinhaisler
  128. 128. www.exponentialgov.com

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