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  1. 1. The Pons-Fleischmann Effect: <ul><li>How Bad Science Works and What We Can Learn From It. </li></ul>
  2. 2. “ Cold Fusion”? 60 Minutes: More Than Junk Science
  3. 5. So, What’s the Plan? <ul><li>Standard Fusion </li></ul><ul><li>History of P-F Effect </li></ul><ul><ul><li>MCF and the CF </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Press Conference, secrets, money </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>DOE </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Pariah Field </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Current Developments </li></ul><ul><li>Summary and Conclusion </li></ul>
  4. 6. Standard Fusion <ul><li>E=mc^2 and the Post - WWII boom </li></ul><ul><li>H-bomb & Cold War </li></ul><ul><li>Militarization far easier than controlled production </li></ul><ul><li>Plasma research </li></ul>
  5. 7. Standard Model <ul><li>H2+H3-> n +He4 + 17.6 MeV </li></ul><ul><li>He4, unusually high binding energy, all nucleons in ground state (PEP) </li></ul>
  6. 8. Standard Model <ul><li>Coulomb Barrier </li></ul><ul><li>Practical T’s => Plasma </li></ul>
  7. 9. Standard Model Known Reaction Rates for He Isotopes ->Gamma Ray branch highly improbable
  8. 10. Money Talks <ul><li>Civilian Power Production </li></ul><ul><ul><li>50 years </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>€ 20 BILLION thus far </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Another €60- €80 BILLION over next 50 yrs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>IN E.U., FUSION gets €750million/yr, rest get €850 million </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>No Excess Power thus far </li></ul></ul>
  9. 11. Pons-Fleischmann Effect: “Cold Fusion”
  10. 12. History Of Cold Fusion <ul><li>Original Premise was faulty, Nernst Eq </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Applies to equilibrium conditions, “inappropriate” for Dt pressure in Pl </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Funded by Fleischmann and Pons </li></ul><ul><ul><li>5 years </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>$100,000 </li></ul></ul>
  11. 13. The Other Utah Group: Muon-Catalyzed Fusion <ul><li>Jones et al. was preforming “cold” fusion too </li></ul><ul><li>Muons fired at frozen block of He isotopes (3K) </li></ul><ul><li>Massive muon bumps electron, shield coulomb potential </li></ul><ul><li>Nuclear force kicks in, fusion occurs </li></ul><ul><li>Release 5.5MeV (cost 6MeV), 100 rxns/muon, dies off </li></ul>
  12. 14. MCF: <ul><li>MCF Rate:~10^-24 /sec </li></ul><ul><li>Theoretical limits: ~10^-64/sec (Koonin,1989), ~10^-23/sec (Lamb,1990), </li></ul><ul><li>1-40 OoM disparity! </li></ul><ul><li>Still much less than the 10^-14/sec that P&F’s excess power would require </li></ul>
  13. 15. Standard Model <ul><li>Coulomb Barrier </li></ul><ul><li>Such T’s => Plasma </li></ul>
  14. 16. <ul><li>Feb 23, 1989 : P&F(UU) meet Jones(BYU), decide to simultaneously mail manuscripts on March 24 from Salt Lake City </li></ul><ul><li>March 13, 1989 : UU files patents </li></ul><ul><li>March 21, 1989 : UU decide to go public, own departments and Jone’s group don’t know! </li></ul><ul><li>March 23, 1989 : Press conference held, all hell breaks loose </li></ul>Critical Dates:
  15. 17. Let the Games Begin! <ul><li>Press conference circumvents PRP </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ ‘ SIMPLE EXPERIMENT’ RESULTS IN SUSTAINED N-FUSION AT ROOM TEMPERATURE FOR FIRST TIME ...Break through process has potential to provide inexhaustible source of energy” </li></ul></ul><ul><li>UU own physicist even didn’t know! </li></ul>
  16. 19. Fusion Fuels Furor <ul><li>Frenzy to replicate </li></ul><ul><li>Lack of information: data and specifications </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Pending and future patents </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>1st draft highly rushed, bypassed PRP </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>25% errata in 2nd draft </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Media a major source of info! </li></ul>
  17. 20. Money Yells, Hushes <ul><li>MO: </li></ul><ul><li>1) Billions in patents </li></ul><ul><li>2) Nobel prizes </li></ul><ul><li>3) New major research centers for Utah </li></ul><ul><li>4) Further economic development in Utah </li></ul>
  18. 21. Federal Funding <ul><li>National Cold Fusion Institute </li></ul><ul><li>-$5 million from Utah set aside </li></ul><ul><li>-Another $25 million asked of Congress </li></ul><ul><li>-Info withheld from Feds b/c of patents! </li></ul><ul><li>DOE panel created to: </li></ul><ul><li>1) Review experiments and theory </li></ul><ul><li>2) Identify research avenues to be pursued to better understand phenomena </li></ul><ul><li>3) Identify best direction for DOE for CF </li></ul>
  19. 22. Hand Wavingly Speaking... <ul><li>Huizenga’s “Miracles:” </li></ul><ul><li>1) ‘Fusion-rate miracle:’ </li></ul><ul><li>-Theoretical rates of 10^-64/sec 10^-23/sec </li></ul><ul><li>-MCF rates of 10^-24 </li></ul><ul><li>-CF (extrapolated) rates of 10^-14 </li></ul>
  20. 23. Hand Wavingly Speaking... <ul><li>2) ‘Branching ratio miracle:’ </li></ul><ul><li>-In solids, posited to jump to 10^6-10^9 </li></ul><ul><li>[In plasma, gamma-ray branch has probability of 10^-7 ] </li></ul>
  21. 24. Hand Wavingly Speaking... <ul><li>3) ‘Concealed-Nuclear-Products Miracle:’ </li></ul><ul><li>-23.85/5.5 Mev gamma ray taken up by lattice </li></ul><ul><li>-P&F posited ‘new type of nuclear process’ </li></ul>
  22. 26. Frenzy Peaks <ul><li>‘ YAY’-Camp: </li></ul><ul><li>-Statistically Significant Positive results (‘one is enough’ mentality) </li></ul><ul><li>Los Alamos, Stanford, Texas A&M, BARC, BYU, </li></ul><ul><li>-He3, n, excess heat all separately measured </li></ul><ul><li>-Large He3/n ratios and ‘sporadicity’ => new physics </li></ul>
  23. 27. <ul><li>‘ NAY’-Camp: </li></ul><ul><li>-Excess Heat dispro. to n’s dispro. to He3 </li></ul><ul><li>-No commensurate or simultaneous measurements of E.H.,n’s, He4, He3 </li></ul><ul><li>-Irreproducibility, inconsistent measurements </li></ul><ul><li>-Current model abhors it </li></ul><ul><li>-Secrecy, went to press before peers </li></ul>Frenzy Peaks
  24. 28. DOE Panel Concludes <ul><li>1) No convincing evidence of useful energy source </li></ul><ul><li>2) Many disparate claims of E.H. and fusion products imply non-nuclear process </li></ul><ul><li>3) Many null results for n’s, few near background, are not persuasive for a new nuclear process (CF). </li></ul><ul><li>4) Current model does not allow CF </li></ul><ul><li>5) CF runs contrary to all known data, would require new process </li></ul>
  25. 29. DOE Panel Recommends: <ul><li>1) No special funding outside of PRP </li></ul><ul><li>2) ‘Sympathetic’ towards modest future funding </li></ul><ul><li>3) Research should focus on E.H. measurements </li></ul><ul><li>4) Simultaneous measurements are encouraged, commensurate levels are expected for fusion </li></ul><ul><li>5) Excess tritium should be investigated </li></ul><ul><li>6) Collaborative efforts are highly encouraged to further field </li></ul>
  26. 30. Climate Change
  27. 31. Climate Change <ul><li>“ As in all areas of science, it was, of course, not possible to state categorically that all the claims for cold fusion had been convincingly either proved or disproved.” - J.R. Huizenga </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Yet DOE findings signaled end of debate to most </li></ul></ul><ul><li>No more cross-camp debate </li></ul>
  28. 32. Standard Model Known Reaction Rates for He Isotopes ->Gamma Ray branch highly improbable
  29. 33. Schwinger’s Heart Break <ul><li>Nobel in ’65 for QED </li></ul><ul><li>wrote 8 papers on CF </li></ul><ul><li>Published 2: “Cold Fusion: A Hypothesis.” and Nuclear Energy in an Atomic Lattice, 1” </li></ul><ul><li>On rejection from Phys. Rev. Letters, left APS </li></ul><ul><li>“ The pressure for conformity is enormous. I have experienced it in editors’ rejection of submitted papers, based on venomous criticism of anonymous referees. The replacement of impartial reviewing by censorship will be the death of science” </li></ul>
  30. 34. Pariah Field <ul><li>Little to no communication b/n CF and rest of community </li></ul><ul><li>Rarely, if ever, findings published in mainstream journals </li></ul><ul><li>Left to their own devices </li></ul><ul><li>Data is less scrutinized to reduce fuel for critics </li></ul><ul><li>-David Goodstein </li></ul>
  31. 36. Current Theories on LENR, CANR <ul><li> , over 300 theory papers, 1000+ in total. </li></ul>
  32. 37. Further Developments <ul><li>P&F went to France, funded by Toyota, £12 million later, stopped in ’98 </li></ul><ul><li>Japan funded ‘hydrogen energy research’ stopped after $20 million (’92-’97) </li></ul>
  33. 38. <ul><li>International Conference on Condensed Matter Nuclear Science, created in ’90 </li></ul><ul><li>Several trade magazines created to publish findings (4+) </li></ul>Subculture Forms
  34. 39. NAVY Restarts Dialogue <ul><li>In 2002, US NAVY revealed their long running CF research: “Thermal and Nuclear Aspects of the Pd/D20 System” </li></ul><ul><li>2004 DOE reviewed field again, less negative findings, smaller majority </li></ul><ul><li>2006 APS held CF session </li></ul><ul><li>2007 ACS held CF session </li></ul>
  35. 40. Current Developments <ul><li>2008 live demonstration in Japan (Osaka University) sparks research in India </li></ul><ul><li>2009 ACS held 4-day symposium on ‘New Energy Technology’ </li></ul><ul><li>US NAVY SPAWAR found neutrons with CF cell using CR-39 </li></ul><ul><li>SRI </li></ul><ul><li>SUPERWAVE Fusion (Energetics Technologies LLC) </li></ul>
  36. 42. Summery of Evidence <ul><li>-Statistically significant excess heat </li></ul><ul><li>-Neutron/He3 ratio very large </li></ul><ul><li>-Neutron and He3 decoupled from heat </li></ul><ul><li>=>No deadly radiation </li></ul><ul><li>-Sporaticity </li></ul><ul><li>-Mechanism Unknown </li></ul><ul><li>- </li></ul>
  37. 43. Conclusions <ul><li>Faulty premise serendipitously lead to novel results </li></ul><ul><li>Patent-and-Prestige dreams lead to secrecy and greed </li></ul><ul><li>Abandonment of PRP, scientific method </li></ul><ul><ul><li>BAD SCIENCE: ‘Pathological Science’ and ‘Pathological Skepticism’ created polarization </li></ul></ul><ul><li>New physics waiting for exploration </li></ul><ul><li>Possible commercialization </li></ul>
  38. 44. Done. Thank You!