The Irish Banks and Eurozone Stability: Learning from the past, looking to the future

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Gregory Connor's presentation focuses on a number of key themes – what the effect was of Ireland joining the Euro, and how things may have worked out differently if our banking regulatory system had been stricter. Following with a look at how we might ‘cure our hangover’ Gregory addressed the housing situation, mortgage arrears and how Ireland might get out of debt.

This talk was part of 'The Irish Economy. What happened? What next?', a lecture series held in Dublin City Public Libraries during March 2012.

http://dublincitypubliclibraries.com/story/irish-economy-what-happened-what-next

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The Irish Banks and Eurozone Stability: Learning from the past, looking to the future

  1. 1. The Irish banks and Eurozonestability: Learning from the past, looking to the future Gregory Connor Department of Economics, Finance & Accounting National University of Ireland, Maynooth
  2. 2. Economics During Interesting Times
  3. 3. One Key Objective of the Euro Currency
  4. 4. The Brittleness of the Euro Currency Regime
  5. 5. Do Not Mention Optimal Currency Areas!
  6. 6. One Reason Irish Financial Economists Were Pro-Euro
  7. 7. What Ireland Got Instead: Credit Oversupply and Negative Investment Returns
  8. 8. Actual Domestic Banking SectorAggregate Balance Sheet, Assets
  9. 9. Actual Domestic Banking SectorAggregate Balance Sheet, Liabilities
  10. 10. What Might Have Been…
  11. 11. Simulated Domestic Banking Sector Aggregate Balance Sheet, Assets
  12. 12. Simulated Domestic Banking SectorAggregate Balance Sheet, Liabilities
  13. 13. Simulation Constraints
  14. 14. Domestic Bank Sector Risk Profile
  15. 15. Changes in Net Foreign Borrowing
  16. 16. Annual One-Off GDP Impacts
  17. 17. Irish House Party, with Invited Guests
  18. 18. Cumulative GDP Impact to 2010
  19. 19. Curing Our Hangover
  20. 20. Extraordinary Liquidity Support from the ECB
  21. 21. Shrinking the Asset Side of the Irish Banking Sector Balance Sheet
  22. 22. Reality Returns to Property Prices
  23. 23. Not Building Houses Does Not Make Them Go Away Quickly
  24. 24. Mortgages in Arrears: A Potentially Deadly Risk
  25. 25. What Are We Paying For?
  26. 26. Will Ireland Make It Out of Debt?Source: D. Cronin and K. Dowd, Central Bank of Ireland Working Paper 15/RT/11 2012
  27. 27. Can Irish Pharma and Tech Sectors Save Us?

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