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How VC Funds Identify Disruptive Trends … and How
Hedge Funds Can Do the Same
Where Is The Next Market-Moving Macro Trend?...
Intro Corporate Experts Network Next Steps
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com
AnalysisSources
David Teten
• Managing Pa...
Intro Corporate Experts Network Next Steps
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com
AnalysisSources
• Introduction
• Sources ...
Intro Corporate Experts Network Next StepsAnalysisSources
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com
• Introduction
• Sources o...
Intro Corporate Experts Network Next StepsAnalysisSources
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com
Peter Drucker’s Sources of...
Intro Corporate Experts Network Next StepsAnalysisSources
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com
Peter Drucker, Innovation ...
Intro Corporate Experts Network Next StepsAnalysisSources
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com Peter Drucker, Innovation ...
Intro Corporate Experts Network Next StepsAnalysisSources
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com
Peter Drucker, Innovation ...
Intro Corporate Experts Network Next StepsAnalysisSources
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com Peter Drucker, Innovation ...
Intro Corporate Experts Network Next StepsAnalysisSources
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com Peter Drucker, Innovation ...
Intro Corporate Experts Network Next StepsAnalysisSources
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com Peter Drucker, Innovation ...
Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com
• Introduction
• Sources o...
Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com
Track VCs’ investments to ...
Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com
A host of startups want to...
Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com
Use AskWonder* for custom ...
Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com
Some VCs are trying to bui...
Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com
Other data sets
• To quant...
Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com
Unique data sets give you ...
Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com
Earnest Research* offers p...
Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com
• Introduction
• Sources o...
Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources Corporate
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com
A new breed of companies b...
Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources Corporate
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com
Investing in VC funds give...
Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources Corporate
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com
• Introduction
• Sources o...
Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources Corporate
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com
Generalists
• GLG
• Colema...
Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources Corporate
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com
Investors use expert netwo...
Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com
• Introduction
• Sources o...
Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com
Join the online gated comm...
Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com
Investors can also connect...
Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com
• U.S. Jaycees Ten Outstan...
Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com
• Society of International...
Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com
• American Council of Youn...
Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com
• Aspen Institute Socrates...
Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com
Elite Short-Duration Mid-C...
Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com
• Robert Bosch Foundation ...
Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com
Target people who are one ...
Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com
• Introduction
• Sources o...
Experts Network Next StepsCorporateIntro AnalysisSources
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com
Any questions ?
Sign up for...
Experts Network Next StepsCorporateIntro AnalysisSources
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com http://innovation.utdallas....
Experts Network Next StepsCorporateIntro AnalysisSources
© 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com
Disclaimer
A representative...
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How Hedge Fund Investors Can Identify New Macro Investment Themes

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How VC Funds Identify Disruptive Trends … and How Public Markets Investors Can Do the Same

by David Teten, http://teten.com

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How Hedge Fund Investors Can Identify New Macro Investment Themes

  1. 1. How VC Funds Identify Disruptive Trends … and How Hedge Funds Can Do the Same Where Is The Next Market-Moving Macro Trend? http://flickr.com/photos/krikit/2745563123/sizes/o/ David Teten HOF.capital / @HOFcapital teten.com / @dteten New York, NY
  2. 2. Intro Corporate Experts Network Next Steps © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com AnalysisSources David Teten • Managing Partner, HOF Capital • Previously Partner for six years, ff Venture Capital, one of the best- performing seed- and early-stage VC firms in the U.S. • Founder, Harvard Business School Alumni Angels of Greater New York • Previously serial entrepreneur and Bear Stearns technology investment banker • Advised clients such as Goldman Sachs Special Situations Group, Icahn Enterprises, LLR Partners ($1.4b fund), Birch Hill Equity Partners (C$2B fund), and other institutional investors • Harvard MBA, Yale BA • Teten.com / @dteten / info@teten.com
  3. 3. Intro Corporate Experts Network Next Steps © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com AnalysisSources • Introduction • Sources of Innovation • Analysis • Your Investor Network • Expert Networks • Growing Your Investor Network • Next Steps Agenda
  4. 4. Intro Corporate Experts Network Next StepsAnalysisSources © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com • Introduction • Sources of Innovation • Analysis • Your Investor Network • Expert Networks • Growing Your Investor Network • Next Steps Agenda
  5. 5. Intro Corporate Experts Network Next StepsAnalysisSources © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com Peter Drucker’s Sources of Innovation Opportunity (1 of 7) Peter Drucker, Innovation and Entrepreneurship. http://500px.com/photo/24975643 First four are within the enterprise --- essentially symptoms: Unexpected success, failure or outside event
  6. 6. Intro Corporate Experts Network Next StepsAnalysisSources © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com Peter Drucker, Innovation and Entrepreneurship. http://500px.com/photo/3568550 The incongruity between reality as it actually is and reality as it is assumed to be, or as it “ought to be” Peter Drucker’s Sources of Innovation Opportunity (2 of 7)
  7. 7. Intro Corporate Experts Network Next StepsAnalysisSources © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com Peter Drucker, Innovation and Entrepreneurship. http://500px.com/photo/2750064 Peter Drucker’s Sources of Innovation Opportunity (3 of 7) Innovation based on process need
  8. 8. Intro Corporate Experts Network Next StepsAnalysisSources © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com Peter Drucker, Innovation and Entrepreneurship. http://500px.com/photo/19113541 Changes in industry structure or market structure that catch others unaware Peter Drucker’s Sources of Innovation Opportunity (4 of 7) © 2014 David Teten. More at teten.com
  9. 9. Intro Corporate Experts Network Next StepsAnalysisSources © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com Peter Drucker, Innovation and Entrepreneurship. http://500px.com/photo/2399314 Peter Drucker’s Sources of Innovation Opportunity (5 of 7) Demographics (population changes)
  10. 10. Intro Corporate Experts Network Next StepsAnalysisSources © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com Peter Drucker, Innovation and Entrepreneurship. http://500px.com/photo/2480850 Peter Drucker’s Sources of Innovation Opportunity (6 of 7) Changes in perception, mood and meaning
  11. 11. Intro Corporate Experts Network Next StepsAnalysisSources © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com Peter Drucker, Innovation and Entrepreneurship. http://500px.com/photo/26552303 Peter Drucker’s Sources of Innovation Opportunity (7 of 7) New knowledge, both scientific and nonscientific © 2014 David Teten. More at teten.com
  12. 12. Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com • Introduction • Sources of Innovation • Analysis • Your Investor Network • Expert Networks • Growing Your Investor Network • Next Steps Agenda
  13. 13. Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com Track VCs’ investments to learn what they’re focused on. • CB Insights • Crunchbase • Techcrunch • Mashable • Mercurynews.com/vc • Venturebeat
  14. 14. Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com A host of startups want to be the “Bloomberg of private companies”. • Among those focused on early-stage companies are CB Insights (the highest-profile, with an excellent newsletter), Bright*Sun, Crunchbase, Core 2 Group, DataFox, FuelUp, Funderbeam, Mattermark, Megabuyte, Pitchbook, Quid, Tracxn, Unomy.com, and VC Experts. • Similar companies more focused on later-stage investors include Avention, Bureau Van Dijk, Dow Jones, FactSet, Genesis, S&P Capital IQ, Dun & Bradstreet, DueDil, Core 2 Group, Hoovers, InsideView, LexisNexis, Preqin, PrivCo, Thomson Reuters, and Unquote. • A number of analysts target the customers of technology companies, e.g., Gartner and 451 Research.
  15. 15. Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com Use AskWonder* for custom research, e.g., “who are new entrants in industry X?” * ffVC portfolio company
  16. 16. Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com Some VCs are trying to build the equivalent of quantitative hedge funds. • Correlation Ventures • SignalFire • Google Ventures Quantitative VC Funds
  17. 17. Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com Other data sets • To quantify consumer trends and market opportunities, use IBIS World and eMarketer for “top down” assessments. • For more rigorous, bottoms-up sizing exercises, use tools such as Statista and the United States Census Bureau (also their North American Industry Classification System database) to help identify more specific data. • To measure product usage and traction over time, use tools like Alexa and Google Analytics. * ffVC portfolio company
  18. 18. Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com Unique data sets give you an edge in identifying new trends. Sample projects you might run: - Search for word clouds in news in your target industries. - Identify patterns in the topics of doctoral dissertations. - Identify to which companies and industries graduate students in your target discipline are flocking. Data Marketplaces Data Consultants • Quandl.com • Datamarket.azure.com • KDnuggets.com • Consumer databases: Bdex, BlueKai (acquired by Oracle) • Crowdflower • Domino • Tamr • Trifacta
  19. 19. Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com Earnest Research* offers powerful analytics based on their proprietary data sets, e.g., of credit card transaction data. * ffVC portfolio company
  20. 20. Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com • Introduction • Sources of Innovation • Analysis • Your Investor Network • Expert Networks • Growing Your Investor Network • Next Steps Agenda
  21. 21. Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources Corporate © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com A new breed of companies bridge large corporates and startups, identifying innovation in a targeted sector. Consultancies • GetKite.co • Fahrenheit-212.com • Pilot44.com • ReCorp.co • RocketFuel.cc • Theleanstartup.com • Iterate.ai • Technium.com Investors • HighNoteFoundry.com • NewVenturePartners.com • Techstars.com • TouchdownVC.com
  22. 22. Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources Corporate © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com Investing in VC funds gives you visibility into the next wave of public companies. Selected Searchable Databases of Private Equity and VC Funds All Investors Private Equity Venture Capital • Galantes • Grey House • LP Source • Pratt’s Guide • VentureXpert • Asia PE Research • Eurekahedge • Pitchbook • PrivateEquityFirms.com • ThompsonOne PE Module • Angel List * • CB Insights • CrunchBase * • PWC MoneyTree • LinkedIn * • TheFunded * • VentureDeal • Asian VC Journal • Venture Source * Has the most data for free
  23. 23. Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources Corporate © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com • Introduction • Sources of Innovation • Analysis • Your Investor Network • Expert Networks • Growing Your Investor Network • Next Steps Agenda
  24. 24. Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources Corporate © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com Generalists • GLG • Coleman Research • Guidepoint Specialty/Other Players • Advantus Global (Circle of Experts) • Intota • Kingfish Group • Primary Insight Selected Leading Expert Networks The expert network industry is the fastest-growing sector of the investment research space, with aggregate revenues over $300m.
  25. 25. Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources Corporate © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com Investors use expert networks to originate deals in three main ways: Based on interview with Michael Duran, GLG, and other sources • Facilitate top-down, “rainmaker” sourcing strategies. Connect to senior industry executives. • Support bottom-up, “boil the ocean” sourcing strategies. An investment team can exhaustively call experts to identify all the companies in a target sector or geography. • Enable thematic sourcing strategies. Identify experts and consultants to help develop investment themes.
  26. 26. Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com • Introduction • Sources of Innovation • Analysis • Your Investor Network • Expert Networks • Growing Your Investor Network • Next Steps Agenda
  27. 27. Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com Join the online gated communities where executives in your target industry talk shop. Sample Gated Communities for Executives • International Executives Resoure Group Online • Executive Forum • Sermo (medical) • Some LinkedIn groups
  28. 28. Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com Investors can also connect with one another via online gated communities. Sample Gated Communities for Investors Angel Group Platforms Angel Communities Consumer Loans Private Equity Public Markets Gust AngelList LendingClub Assoc. for Corporate Growth Albourne Village Proseeder CircleUp Prosper Axial FT Alphaville Long Room FundersClub Intralinks Deal Nexus Sum Zero OurCrowd MergerMarket Value Investors Club SeedInvest
  29. 29. Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com • U.S. Jaycees Ten Outstanding Young Americans • Renaissance Weekends • The Weekend to be Named Later • Technology Entertainment Design • World Academy of Art and Science • U.S.-Southern Africa Emerging Leaders Program • One Young World • DoLectures • Century Institute Elite General Interest Leadership Organizations/Conferences Attending exclusive conferences with industry leaders is a powerful way to get the inside scoop on the future.
  30. 30. Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com • Society of International Business Fellows • United Nations World Summit of Young Entrepreneurs • FLOW retreat • Fortune • Many others… (contact David Teten for update) Elite Business Leadership Organizations/Conferences http://www.500px.com/photo/1945025?from=editors
  31. 31. Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com • American Council of Young Political Leaders • Council on Emerging National Security Affairs • Council on Foreign Relations • Korber-Stiftung • White House Project • Abshire-Inamori Leadership Academy • International Institute of Strategic Studies Elite Policy Leadership Organizations/Conferences
  32. 32. Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com • Aspen Institute Socrates Seminars • Transatlantic Forum • Atlantic-Brucke German- American Young Leaders • Bucerius Summer School • Asia-Europe Young Leaders Symposium • Salzburg Seminar • Pacific Forum Young Leaders • Chautauqua • Henry Crown Fellowship Program at the Aspen Institute • Eris Society • Forum for Young Leaders • French American Young Leaders Program • German-American Young Leaders Conference Elite Short-Duration Mid-Career Learning Programs
  33. 33. Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com Elite Short-Duration Mid-Career Learning Programs • The Global Village for Future Leaders of Business • National Committee on US-China Relations Young Leaders Conference • Norfolk Fellowship • Reboot Annual Summit • Swiss-American young Leaders Conference • United States-Japan Leadership Program • World Economic Forum Global Leader for Tomorrow • Sandbox Network • Vancouver Board of Trade’s Leaders of Tomorrow • Wharton Entrepreneurial Program • TiE Leadership Program • Singularity University • The Feast
  34. 34. Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com • Robert Bosch Foundation / CDS International Inc. • International Affairs Fellowship in Japan • Coro Fellows Program • Council on Foreign Relations: Next Generation Fellowship • White House Fellowships • Unreasonable Institute • Kauffman Venture Fellowship • Presidential Management Fellows Program • David Rockefeller Fellows Program Elite Long-Duration Mid-Career Learning Programs
  35. 35. Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com Target people who are one step removed from you in logically adjacent networks. • By geography • By industry • By personal characteristics http://500px.com/photo/514237
  36. 36. Corporate Experts Network Next StepsIntro AnalysisSources © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com • Introduction • Sources of Innovation • Analysis • Your Investor Network • Expert Networks • Growing Your Investor Network • Next Steps Agenda
  37. 37. Experts Network Next StepsCorporateIntro AnalysisSources © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com Any questions ? Sign up for updates: teten.com @dteten
  38. 38. Experts Network Next StepsCorporateIntro AnalysisSources © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com http://innovation.utdallas.edu/documents/OpportunityEvaluation.pdf Further resources • Baron, R.A. Opportunity Recognition as Pattern Recognition. Academy of Management Perspectives. Feb 2006 • Drucker, P.F. 1993. Innovation & Entrepreneurship. HarperBusiness. New York. • Bhide, A. 1996. The Questions Every Entrepreneur Must Answer. Harvard Business Review. Nov-Dec 1996. • Gourville, J.T. 2006. Eager Sellers, Stony Buyers: Understanding the Psychology of New Product Adoption. HBR June 2006 • Teten, David, and Allen, Scott 2005. The Virtual Handshake: Opening Doors and Closing Deals Online. AMACOM, 2005. Free copy at TheVirtualHandshake.com • The Institute for Innovation & Entrepreneurship at UT Dallas: innovation.utdallas.edu • Recommendations for materials to prepare before pitching a startup idea: teten.com/pitch • Relevant blogs: Corporate-innovation.co , Startuplessonslearned.com, Teten.com
  39. 39. Experts Network Next StepsCorporateIntro AnalysisSources © 2016 David Teten. More at teten.com Disclaimer A representative of an asset management firm (“Firm”) is providing this presentation for informational purposes to the intended audience. Nothing in this presentation shall constitute an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security in any jurisdiction nor should anything in this presentation form the basis of, or be relied upon for, making any investment decision. Nothing in this presentation constitutes professional and/or financial advice of any kind (including business, employment, investment advisory, accounting, tax, and/or legal advice), nor does any information in this presentation constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed or the law relating thereto. This presentation and the information contained herein are provided “AS IS”. The Firm and the presenter make no representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to the information contained herein (including, without limitation, information obtained from third parties) and expressly disclaims any liability based on or relating to the information contained in, or errors or omissions from, these materials; or based on or relating to the recipient’s use (or the use by any of its affiliates or representatives or any other person) of these materials; or based on any other written or oral communications transmitted to the recipient or any of its affiliates or representatives. The Firm and the presenter undertake no duty or obligation to update or revise the information contained in this presentation.

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