Grains World Markets And Trade February 2010

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Grains World Markets And Trade February 2010

  1. 1. United States Department of Grain: Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FG 02-10 February 2010 World Markets and Trade Barley: A Decade of Change & Export Redistribution 1999/00 2009/10 1.5 MMT Exports 10 MMT Exports EU Russia & Ukraine Other Once upon a time (just ten years ago), the EU dominated much of the international barley market, particularly in North Africa and the Middle East. Competitors, such as Australia and Canada, faced the EU’s comparative freight and logistical advantages (there were also small erratic suppliers, such as Syria and Turkey). The EU support programs guaranteed high prices and stimulated production, while export subsidy programs helped to ensure that EU barley had a competitive price advantage against other countries. However, it is all different now. Global barley trade dynamics have changed dramatically with the emergence of low-cost supplies and increased competition from Russia and Ukraine, which also happen to be competitive regional exporters that can match the EU’s comparative freight and logistical advantages. EU policies and programs have reduced market and support prices, stimulated domestic use, and de-emphasized export subsidies as a market- clearing mechanism. Recent regulation changes will soon eliminate intervention support for barley, which could cause some acreage to shift to more profitable crops, and further reduce exportable supplies. Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board - USDA
  2. 2. TABLE OF CONTENTS World Markets and Trade: Commentary and Current Data Wheat ................................................................................................................. 4 Rice .................................................................................................................... 8 Coarse Grains................................................................................................... 12 Historical Data Series for Selected Regions and Countries ............................ 31 Endnotes to Grain: World Markets and Trade ............................................... 50 The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution database for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 9 a.m. on the day the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is released. It is available on the FAS website (http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/). This circular is released at 10:00 a.m. on the same day, together with its downloadable data set. Grain: World Markets and Trade, February 2010 Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 2 Office of Global Analysis February 2010
  3. 3. All Grain Summary Comparison Wheat Rice, Milled Corn Marketing Year 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 Production United States (Jun-May) 55.8 68.0 60.3 6.3 6.5 7.0 331.2 307.1 334.1 Other 554.6 614.7 617.1 428.0 440.8 429.2 460.7 484.4 463.8 World Total 610.5 682.7 677.4 434.4 447.3 436.3 791.9 791.5 797.8 Domestic Consumption United States (Jun-May) 28.6 34.3 32.2 4.1 4.1 4.2 261.6 259.1 282.3 Other 584.6 599.1 612.2 422.4 429.6 430.4 509.2 514.7 525.1 World Total 613.2 633.4 644.4 426.5 433.7 434.5 770.9 773.7 807.4 Ending Stocks United States (Jun-May) 8.3 17.9 26.7 0.9 1.0 1.3 41.3 42.5 43.7 Other 112.7 146.1 169.2 80.0 92.4 91.2 88.4 103.4 90.4 World Total 121.1 164.0 195.9 81.0 93.3 92.5 129.6 145.9 134.0 TY Imports United States (Jun-May) 3.0 3.5 3.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 Other 110.6 136.1 118.4 27.6 26.1 28.1 99.4 81.2 82.3 World Total 113.6 139.5 121.6 28.2 26.8 28.9 99.9 81.5 82.6 TY Exports United States (Jun-May) 34.3 27.3 22.5 3.3 3.1 3.2 60.7 47.9 50.0 Other 82.1 115.2 101.8 26.5 25.9 27.7 37.6 35.3 34.9 World Total 116.4 142.5 124.3 29.8 29.0 30.8 98.2 83.2 84.9 Note: Consumption in this table has not been adjusted for differences in marketing year imports and exports and therefore differs from global totals shown elsewhere. Marketing years for U.S. grains are: Wheat (Jun-May), Rice (Aug-Jul), Corn (Sep-Aug). 'Marketing Year' column is germane for U.S. wheat only. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA Office of Global Analysis February 2010
  4. 4. WHEAT: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE PRICES: U.S. Weekly FOB Export Bids 300 Domestic: Prices for all classes of wheat fell through the first week in February, except for Hard Red Spring (HRS) which was unchanged. Growing global 250 supplies more than offset a slight uptick $/MT in U.S. export sales. Soft and Hard Red Winter showed the largest declines, of $24 and $18/ton, respectively, while 200 Soft White fell $10/ton. TRADE CHANGES IN 2009/10 150 Selected Exporters: 1 8 5 15 22 29 /6 3 7 /4 0 1 8 5 /2 /1 /2 /1 /1 /2 1/ 1/ 2/ 12 11 1/ 1/ 1/ 11 11 11 12 12 12 HRS HRW SRW SWW • Argentina is raised 1.0 million tons to 4.0 million on higher production and increased exportable supplies. • Pakistan is halved to 500,000 tons based on reduced exports to Afghanistan. • Turkey is up 300,000 tons to 2.6 million due to higher expected flour shipments to Iraq and Indonesia. Selected Importers: • Afghanistan is raised 700,000 tons to 2.0 million as the pace of wheat flour shipments from Kazakhstan remains brisk. • Iran is cut 1.0 million to 3.5 million based on the slow pace of imports. • Pakistan is halved to 500,000 due to increased domestic supplies and minimal imports to date. • Turkey is up 500,000 tons to 2.5 million based on the strong pace of trade, particularly from Russia. • Uzbekistan is increased 400,000 tons to 1.4 million on the strong pace of flour shipments from Kazakhstan. • United States is up 150,000 tons to 3.3 million because of expected feed-quality wheat imports from Brazil and Europe. Grain: World Markets and Trade, February 2010 4 Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA Office of Global Analysis February 2010
  5. 5. World Wheat, Flour, and Products Trade July/June Year, Thousand Metric Tons 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 Feb none TY Exports Argentina 13,426 8,216 12,168 10,228 8,598 4,000 Australia 15,826 15,211 11,241 7,449 13,452 15,000 Canada 15,109 15,633 19,278 16,561 18,583 18,500 China 1,171 1,397 2,783 2,835 723 1,000 EU-27 14,745 15,701 13,816 12,271 25,318 19,000 Kazakhstan 3,039 3,817 8,089 8,181 5,701 7,500 Mexico 504 533 548 1,261 1,406 1,200 Russia 8,456 10,514 10,584 12,552 18,393 18,000 Turkey 2,235 3,208 2,200 1,763 2,342 2,600 Ukraine 4,403 6,461 3,366 1,236 13,037 9,000 Others 6,360 5,886 6,482 7,782 7,632 6,049 Subtotal 85,274 86,577 90,555 82,119 115,185 101,849 United States 28,552 27,252 25,041 34,328 27,295 22,500 World Total 113,826 113,829 115,596 116,447 142,480 124,349 none TY Imports Afghanistan 1,000 500 1,400 2,300 3,800 2,000 Algeria 5,358 5,476 4,874 5,904 6,359 5,300 Bangladesh 2,058 2,034 1,731 1,555 2,882 2,600 Brazil 5,009 5,823 7,704 7,136 6,367 6,500 Egypt 8,150 7,771 7,300 7,700 9,900 8,800 EU-27 7,061 6,758 5,137 6,942 7,740 6,500 Indonesia 4,661 4,981 5,596 5,224 5,423 5,500 Iran 200 1,105 700 200 9,300 3,500 Iraq 3,010 4,996 2,912 3,424 3,868 3,800 Israel 1,549 1,663 1,458 1,186 2,060 2,100 Japan 5,744 5,469 5,747 5,701 5,156 5,300 Korea, South 3,591 3,884 3,439 3,092 3,371 3,700 Libya 1,488 1,722 994 1,567 1,677 1,650 Mexico 3,717 3,549 3,610 3,136 3,341 3,100 Morocco 2,272 2,418 1,801 4,191 3,759 1,800 Nigeria 3,014 3,678 3,265 2,677 3,550 3,500 Peru 1,449 1,644 1,367 1,452 1,385 1,500 Philippines 2,593 2,954 2,754 2,266 3,201 3,000 Saudi Arabia 50 77 91 48 1,400 1,600 South Africa 1,407 1,242 885 1,333 1,500 1,500 Sudan 1,522 1,659 1,323 1,060 1,712 1,500 Syria 200 231 200 200 1,700 1,800 Turkey 372 64 1,778 2,192 3,577 2,500 Venezuela 1,504 1,691 1,765 1,498 1,500 1,525 Yemen 1,860 2,187 2,420 1,861 2,786 2,300 Others 39,463 35,270 39,999 36,728 38,742 35,515 Subtotal 108,302 108,846 110,250 110,573 136,056 118,390 Unaccounted 3,578 2,684 1,952 2,862 2,964 2,709 United States 1,946 2,299 3,394 3,012 3,460 3,250 World Total 113,826 113,829 115,596 116,447 142,480 124,349 TY=Trade Year, see Endnotes. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA Office of Global Analysis February 2010
  6. 6. World Wheat Production, Consumption, and Stocks Local Marketing Years, Thousand Metric Tons 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 Feb none Production Argentina 16,100 14,600 16,100 18,000 9,000 9,000 Australia 21,905 25,173 10,822 13,569 20,939 22,500 Canada 24,796 25,748 25,265 20,054 28,611 26,500 China 91,952 97,445 108,466 109,298 112,464 114,500 Egypt 7,177 8,184 8,274 8,275 7,883 7,900 EU-27 146,886 132,356 124,870 120,133 151,080 138,218 India 72,150 68,640 69,350 75,810 78,570 80,580 Iran 14,568 14,308 14,500 15,000 10,000 12,000 Kazakhstan 9,950 11,200 13,450 16,450 12,550 17,000 Morocco 5,540 3,043 6,327 1,583 3,730 6,370 Pakistan 19,500 21,612 21,277 23,300 21,500 24,000 Russia 45,400 47,700 44,900 49,400 63,700 61,700 Turkey 18,500 18,500 17,500 15,500 16,800 17,800 Ukraine 17,500 18,700 14,000 13,900 25,900 20,900 Uzbekistan 5,250 5,800 5,850 6,200 6,000 6,200 Others 49,852 49,681 45,534 48,163 45,951 51,959 Subtotal 567,026 562,690 546,485 554,635 614,678 617,127 United States 58,698 57,243 49,217 55,821 68,016 60,314 World Total 625,724 619,933 595,702 610,456 682,694 677,441 none Total Consumption Algeria 7,550 7,750 7,850 8,050 8,450 8,750 Brazil 9,900 10,450 10,300 10,300 10,700 11,400 Canada 8,240 8,242 8,986 6,787 8,027 8,100 China 102,000 101,500 102,000 106,000 102,500 102,000 Egypt 14,200 14,800 15,450 15,950 16,550 17,050 EU-27 123,220 127,525 125,500 116,536 127,500 127,000 India 72,838 69,980 73,371 76,422 70,770 76,120 Iran 14,550 14,800 15,300 15,500 15,900 16,200 Kazakhstan 7,400 7,400 7,500 7,500 7,525 7,550 Morocco 6,600 6,800 7,150 7,450 7,550 7,650 Pakistan 19,600 20,900 21,900 22,400 22,800 23,300 Russia 37,400 38,400 36,400 37,700 38,900 41,200 Turkey 16,800 16,100 16,650 16,800 16,900 17,400 Ukraine 11,700 12,500 11,700 12,300 11,900 12,100 Uzbekistan 5,700 6,118 6,500 6,800 7,050 7,250 Others 116,044 122,532 121,066 118,116 126,063 129,128 Subtotal 575,664 591,379 584,643 588,367 605,459 613,430 United States 31,783 31,320 30,940 28,614 34,291 32,168 World Total 607,447 622,699 615,583 616,981 639,750 645,598 none Ending Stocks Canada 7,922 9,698 6,865 4,406 6,556 6,856 China 38,821 34,387 38,450 38,963 48,685 60,785 Egypt 2,861 4,006 4,120 4,120 5,343 4,983 EU-27 27,496 23,384 14,075 12,343 18,345 17,063 India 4,100 2,000 4,500 5,800 13,510 18,020 Iran 3,419 3,257 3,507 3,157 3,907 4,157 Russia 3,386 3,454 2,231 1,819 8,429 11,129 Others 47,537 51,744 41,432 42,138 41,371 46,173 Subtotal 135,542 131,930 115,180 112,746 146,146 169,166 United States 14,699 15,545 12,414 8,323 17,867 26,690 World Total 150,241 147,475 127,594 121,069 164,013 195,856 Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA Office of Global Analysis February 2010
  7. 7. Regional Wheat Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks Thousand Metric Tons Feb 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 TY Imports none North America 5,915 6,135 7,325 6,535 7,188 6,750 Central America 1,510 1,506 1,582 1,460 1,482 1,550 South America 10,526 12,304 13,979 13,143 12,746 12,890 European Union 7,061 6,758 5,137 6,942 7,740 6,500 Other Europe 1,464 1,457 1,480 1,923 1,690 1,675 Former Soviet Union - 12 4,910 5,487 5,958 6,021 6,544 5,500 Middle East 10,209 13,447 12,143 11,726 28,296 20,800 North Africa 18,347 18,650 16,402 21,734 23,467 19,050 Sub-Saharan Africa 12,086 13,174 11,735 10,371 13,363 13,395 East Asia 18,357 12,852 11,886 11,278 11,322 11,950 South Asia 5,655 4,812 10,944 8,270 10,713 6,215 Southeast Asia 11,429 11,923 12,437 11,405 12,328 12,500 Others 2,779 2,640 2,636 2,777 2,637 2,865 Total 110,248 111,145 113,644 113,585 139,516 121,640 Production none North America 85,914 86,011 77,722 79,468 100,627 91,114 South America 25,336 22,572 21,022 24,835 18,523 17,928 European Union 146,886 132,356 124,870 120,133 151,080 138,218 Other Europe 5,435 4,196 4,313 4,405 4,693 4,465 Former Soviet Union - 12 85,581 91,123 84,927 92,541 115,585 113,670 Middle East 42,771 42,975 41,758 39,912 32,196 36,825 North Africa 17,166 15,178 18,576 13,948 14,588 19,395 Sub-Saharan Africa 4,796 5,219 5,724 5,547 6,449 6,057 East Asia 93,221 98,652 109,669 110,590 113,706 115,711 South Asia 96,326 96,034 95,881 105,075 103,870 111,100 Oceania 22,161 25,466 11,099 13,846 21,216 22,777 Others 131 151 141 156 161 181 Total 625,724 619,933 595,702 610,456 682,694 677,441 Domestic Consumption none North America 46,023 45,662 46,126 40,901 48,318 46,418 South America 23,094 24,151 23,901 23,951 24,254 25,175 European Union 123,220 127,525 125,500 116,536 127,500 127,000 Other Europe 6,018 5,917 5,495 5,600 5,544 5,830 Former Soviet Union - 12 72,231 75,041 72,627 75,002 76,570 79,500 Middle East 49,690 50,423 51,308 50,519 53,260 53,665 North Africa 32,538 33,847 34,205 36,042 37,352 38,325 Sub-Saharan Africa 16,390 17,782 16,752 15,870 18,873 19,143 East Asia 114,117 114,116 113,938 117,556 114,118 114,170 South Asia 100,951 100,310 105,160 109,487 104,405 111,280 Southeast Asia 10,900 11,515 11,693 10,990 12,111 12,340 Oceania 6,916 7,484 8,545 7,394 7,699 8,025 Others 3,437 3,344 3,313 3,377 3,372 3,495 Total 605,525 617,117 618,563 613,225 633,376 644,366 Ending Stocks none North America 22,997 25,555 19,693 13,111 24,740 33,913 South America 4,062 4,752 5,132 5,801 3,293 3,616 European Union 27,496 23,384 14,075 12,343 18,345 17,063 Other Europe 1,770 1,333 1,067 1,037 1,442 1,237 Former Soviet Union - 12 12,746 13,338 9,263 10,609 18,510 23,155 Middle East 12,600 13,520 12,041 10,648 12,221 13,919 North Africa 9,492 9,233 9,749 9,127 9,600 9,485 Sub-Saharan Africa 1,243 1,458 1,731 1,563 2,074 2,033 East Asia 41,220 36,606 40,838 41,781 51,519 63,395 South Asia 7,393 6,285 7,057 8,487 16,363 21,698 Southeast Asia 2,152 2,251 2,605 2,549 2,432 2,347 Oceania 6,848 9,544 4,159 3,841 3,301 3,818 Others 222 216 184 172 173 177 Total 150,241 147,475 127,594 121,069 164,013 195,856 NOTES: Regional definitions appear on last page of this circular. Imports are reported on a trade year basis. All other data are reported using local marketing years. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA Office of Global Analysis February 2010
  8. 8. RICE: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE PRICES: $/MT Recent Price Spreads Becoming For most of this decade, the spread between Less Volatile U.S. #2/4 quotes and Thai 100B quotes was 250 positive and moved rather slowly. Likewise, 200 the difference between Thai 100B quotes and Vietnamese 5% quotes was mostly 150 positive and fairly small. This pattern 100 changed in 2008 when Thai quotes fell below U.S. quotes, and the gap between 50 Thai and Vietnamese quotes ballooned. At 0 the same time, prices at all origins were changing quickly and not always in the same -50 direction, creating volatility in the spread. -100 In the past few months, however, it seems that this volatility has diminished as quotes -150 have tended to move in the same direction. -200 In addition, the U.S.-Thai spread has been shrinking and is near zero. With the -250 completion of the Philippine tenders, there 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 b-0 eb-0 eb-0 eb-0 eb-0 eb-0 eb-0 eb-0 eb-0 eb-0 eb-1 Fe F F F F F F F F F F may be more stability in the Thai-Viet spread, as well. US-Thai Price Spread Thai-Viet Price Spread TRADE CHANGES Selected Exporters: • Burma is down 200,000 tons to 800,000 in 2010 due to depleted stocks after 2009 exports reached the highest level in over 40 years. • Egypt is up 150,000 tons to 600,000 in 2010 on the government announcement that additional export licenses will be granted due to sufficient domestic supplies. • Uruguay is raised 126,000 tons to a record 926,000 for 2009 and raised 108,000 tons to 742,000 for 2008 based on new trade data. Selected Importers: • South Africa is boosted 150,000 tons to 800,000 for 2009 on near-final trade data. • Venezuela is doubled to 300,000 tons for 2010 on weather-related crop shortages. Grain: World Markets and Trade, February 2010 8 Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA Office of Global Analysis February 2010
  9. 9. World Rice Trade January/December Year, Thousand Metric Tons 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 Feb none TY Exports Argentina 348 487 436 408 600 550 Brazil 272 291 201 511 650 300 Burma 190 47 31 541 1,052 800 Cambodia 200 350 450 500 800 800 China 656 1,216 1,340 969 760 1,500 Egypt 1,095 958 1,209 750 500 600 EU-27 201 144 139 157 140 135 Guyana 182 250 210 210 250 220 India 4,687 4,537 6,301 3,383 2,000 2,000 Japan 200 200 200 200 200 200 Pakistan 3,032 3,579 2,696 3,000 3,000 3,800 Peru 5 10 20 17 90 90 Thailand 7,274 7,376 9,557 10,011 8,570 10,000 Uruguay 762 812 734 742 926 750 Vietnam 5,174 4,705 4,522 4,649 5,950 5,500 Others 815 876 809 430 441 450 Subtotal 25,093 25,838 28,855 26,478 25,929 27,695 United States 3,863 3,307 3,029 3,273 3,100 3,150 World Total 28,956 29,145 31,884 29,751 29,029 30,845 none TY Imports Bangladesh 785 531 1,570 1,658 150 500 Brazil 548 691 684 417 630 750 Canada 321 333 341 365 345 340 China 609 654 472 295 330 350 Cote d'Ivoire 850 750 980 800 800 860 Cuba 736 594 574 558 425 575 EU-27 1,089 1,221 1,342 1,520 1,350 1,350 Ghana 450 440 340 300 350 350 Guinea 221 200 240 150 150 330 Haiti 328 399 292 320 300 325 Hong Kong 347 309 348 399 395 400 Iran 1,200 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,700 1,700 Iraq 786 1,306 613 975 1,000 1,100 Japan 787 681 642 546 700 700 Malaysia 751 886 799 1,020 830 850 Mexico 553 586 609 578 610 600 Mozambique 350 330 410 300 350 350 Nigeria 1,777 1,600 1,550 1,600 1,900 1,600 Philippines 1,890 1,791 1,900 2,500 2,000 2,600 Saudi Arabia 1,357 958 961 1,360 1,370 1,400 Senegal 850 600 700 860 715 700 Singapore 375 350 393 320 300 350 South Africa 764 800 960 665 800 800 Vietnam 320 350 450 300 500 500 Yemen 250 250 338 325 325 325 Others 8,195 7,680 9,649 7,958 7,790 8,419 Subtotal 26,489 25,790 28,657 27,589 26,115 28,124 Unaccounted 2,048 2,722 2,532 1,511 2,214 1,986 United States 419 633 695 651 700 735 World Total 28,956 29,145 31,884 29,751 29,029 30,845 TY=Trade Year, see Endnotes. Note about dates: 2009/10 is calendar year 2010, 2008/09 is calendar year 2009, and so on. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA Office of Global Analysis February 2010
  10. 10. World Rice Production, Consumption, and Stocks Local Marketing Years, Thousand Metric Tons 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 Feb none Milled Production Bangladesh 25,600 28,758 29,000 28,800 31,000 30,000 Brazil 8,996 7,874 7,695 8,199 8,569 7,820 Burma 9,570 10,440 10,600 10,730 10,150 10,730 Cambodia 2,627 3,771 3,946 4,238 4,520 4,630 China 125,363 126,414 127,200 130,224 134,330 137,000 Egypt 4,128 4,135 4,383 4,385 4,387 4,374 India 83,130 91,790 93,350 96,690 99,150 84,500 Indonesia 34,830 34,959 35,300 37,000 38,300 38,800 Japan 7,944 8,257 7,786 7,930 8,029 7,620 Korea, South 5,000 4,768 4,680 4,408 4,843 4,910 Nigeria 2,300 2,700 2,900 3,000 3,200 3,400 Pakistan 5,025 5,547 5,450 5,700 6,700 6,200 Philippines 9,425 9,821 9,775 10,479 10,753 10,200 Thailand 17,360 18,200 18,250 19,800 19,850 20,400 Vietnam 22,716 22,772 22,922 24,375 24,388 24,300 Others 30,347 31,257 31,275 32,083 32,625 34,364 Subtotal 394,361 411,463 414,512 428,041 440,794 429,248 United States 7,462 7,105 6,267 6,344 6,515 7,030 World Total 401,823 418,568 420,779 434,385 447,309 436,278 none Consumption and Residual Bangladesh 26,900 29,000 29,764 30,747 31,000 31,100 Brazil 9,074 8,460 7,925 8,254 8,529 8,600 Burma 10,300 10,400 10,670 10,249 9,550 9,850 Cambodia 2,777 3,571 3,646 3,788 3,770 3,880 China 130,300 128,000 127,200 127,450 129,000 133,500 Egypt 3,250 3,320 3,276 3,340 4,000 4,000 India 80,861 85,088 86,700 90,466 93,150 86,700 Indonesia 35,850 35,739 35,900 36,350 37,090 37,600 Iran 2,986 3,274 3,550 3,575 3,550 3,600 Japan 8,300 8,250 8,250 8,177 8,370 8,200 Korea, South 4,951 4,766 4,887 4,670 4,972 4,978 Nigeria 4,250 4,300 4,400 4,500 5,100 5,100 Philippines 10,400 10,722 12,000 13,499 13,650 13,785 Thailand 9,480 9,544 9,780 9,600 9,500 9,600 Vietnam 17,595 18,392 18,775 19,400 19,000 19,150 Others 46,043 46,032 47,545 48,327 49,375 50,727 Subtotal 405,558 412,140 417,567 424,432 430,840 432,954 United States 3,934 3,828 4,102 4,078 4,100 4,171 World Total 409,492 415,968 421,669 428,510 434,940 437,125 none Ending Stocks China 38,931 36,783 35,915 38,015 42,915 45,265 India 8,500 10,520 11,430 13,000 17,000 13,000 Indonesia 3,448 3,207 4,607 5,607 7,057 8,487 Japan 1,919 2,395 2,406 2,556 2,715 2,635 Philippines 4,572 5,293 4,868 4,418 4,121 3,136 Thailand 2,312 3,594 2,510 2,707 4,787 5,887 Vietnam 1,292 1,317 1,392 2,018 1,956 2,106 Others 11,205 11,510 10,706 11,712 11,819 10,710 Subtotal 72,179 74,619 73,834 80,033 92,370 91,226 United States 1,211 1,371 1,266 942 974 1,271 World Total 73,390 75,990 75,100 80,975 93,344 92,497 Note: All data are reported on a milled basis. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA Office of Global Analysis February 2010
  11. 11. Regional Rice Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks Thousand Metric Tons Feb 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 TY Imports none North America 1,293 1,552 1,645 1,594 1,655 1,675 Caribbean 1,213 1,111 965 1,028 820 1,005 South America 964 1,095 1,080 1,119 1,188 1,355 Other Europe 114 138 137 98 125 120 Former Soviet Union - 12 526 504 361 335 355 325 Middle East 4,879 5,204 4,778 5,728 5,785 5,910 North Africa 261 233 355 280 160 145 Sub-Saharan Africa 8,225 7,512 7,804 7,284 7,897 8,045 East Asia 2,119 2,017 2,318 1,646 1,825 1,926 South Asia 1,202 925 1,962 2,063 490 1,110 Southeast Asia 4,236 4,122 5,742 4,637 4,300 4,935 Others 1,876 2,010 2,205 2,428 2,215 2,308 Total 26,908 26,423 29,352 28,240 26,815 28,859 Production none North America 7,657 7,286 6,445 6,522 6,690 7,220 Caribbean 760 685 798 796 882 932 South America 16,217 14,557 14,292 15,649 16,014 15,072 European Union 1,880 1,731 1,676 1,757 1,680 1,988 Former Soviet Union - 12 770 871 1,000 1,005 915 1,095 Middle East 2,145 2,372 2,538 2,738 2,085 2,496 North Africa 4,148 4,170 4,413 4,406 4,408 4,409 Sub-Saharan Africa 7,892 8,804 9,376 9,557 10,468 11,016 East Asia 141,118 142,492 142,661 145,044 150,104 152,250 South Asia 119,009 131,367 133,111 136,535 142,095 126,598 Southeast Asia 99,462 102,944 103,778 109,823 111,292 112,536 Others 765 1,289 691 553 676 666 Total 401,823 418,568 420,779 434,385 447,309 436,278 Domestic Consumption none North America 5,005 4,936 5,231 5,143 5,225 5,291 Central America 1,079 1,064 1,102 1,116 1,108 1,073 Caribbean 1,990 1,732 1,829 1,863 1,737 1,930 South America 14,930 14,002 13,418 14,053 14,697 14,699 European Union 2,636 2,651 2,911 3,185 2,970 3,108 Former Soviet Union - 12 1,332 1,346 1,342 1,283 1,241 1,330 Middle East 6,756 7,629 7,586 7,809 7,976 8,235 North Africa 3,531 3,575 3,546 3,636 4,146 4,170 Sub-Saharan Africa 16,100 16,581 17,050 17,503 17,943 18,920 East Asia 147,014 144,371 144,289 143,315 145,800 149,920 South Asia 115,884 121,673 124,366 129,650 133,215 126,645 Southeast Asia 90,387 92,459 94,986 97,250 97,048 98,596 Others 607 667 714 664 600 624 Total 407,251 412,686 418,370 426,470 433,706 434,541 Ending Stocks none North America 1,385 1,530 1,409 1,135 1,140 1,442 Central America 297 271 299 255 207 213 Caribbean 159 225 178 134 109 106 South America 2,472 2,199 2,230 2,488 2,518 2,078 European Union 1,138 1,181 1,138 1,126 1,020 1,115 Middle East 1,728 2,079 1,697 1,977 1,826 1,902 North Africa 502 366 370 685 792 576 Sub-Saharan Africa 1,494 1,330 1,021 1,341 1,000 1,001 East Asia 41,916 40,329 39,317 41,537 46,657 49,157 South Asia 9,038 11,317 12,636 14,306 19,193 14,286 Southeast Asia 12,648 14,469 14,426 15,780 18,732 20,465 Oceania 431 515 230 52 26 22 Others 182 179 149 159 124 134 Total 73,390 75,990 75,100 80,975 93,344 92,497 NOTES: Regional definitions appear on last page of this circular. Imports are reported on a trade year basis. All other data are reported using local marketing years. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA Office of Global Analysis February 2010
  12. 12. COARSE GRAINS: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE PRICES: Throughout January, U.S. corn export Corn Weekly Export Bids quotes continued a nearly $30 per ton slide 200 to about $165 following USDA data 190 indicating a record crop. Argentine and Brazilian quotes largely moved with U.S., 180 $/MT but the normal pre-harvest discount ($20) has narrowed because of strong sales and 170 shipments. 160 150 22 n 29 n n eb 20 v ov ov 18 c 25 c ec ct ov ec an an o e e -Ja -Ja -Ja -O -N -N -N -D -D -D 6-N 4-D 5-F 1-J 8-J 30 15 13 27 11 TRADE CHANGES IN 2009/10 U.S. Gulf A rgentina Up River B razil P aranagua Selected Exporters • U.S. corn is cut 2.0 million tons to 50.0 million based on the pace of shipments, despite some improved sales in recent weeks. • Argentine corn is raised 2.0 million tons to 9.5 million because of strong shipments in recent months and improved prospects for new crop corn. • EU barley is lowered 500,000 tons to 1.5 million, the lowest in 6 years, on the continued slow pace of export licenses and large early-season intervention offers. • Turkey barley is raised 450,000 tons to 500,000 on large feed-barley export tenders by the Turkish Grain Board. • U.S. sorghum is boosted 200,000 tons to 3.8 million with commitments running well ahead of last year. (Japanese and Mexican sorghum imports are each boosted 100,000 tons.) Selected Importers • Vietnamese corn is boosted 200,000 tons to 900,000 based on strong trade with Thailand. • Iran barley is lowered 200,000 tons based on a slow early-season import pace. Grain: World Markets and Trade, February 2010 Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 12 Office of Global Analysis February 2010
  13. 13. World Coarse Grain Trade October/September Year, Thousand Metric Tons 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 Feb none TY Exports Argentina 14,371 11,243 17,191 17,786 10,241 11,405 Australia 4,996 5,614 1,993 3,895 4,874 5,060 Brazil 1,457 2,826 8,188 8,032 7,183 9,100 Canada 3,217 4,010 3,787 6,379 3,848 3,625 EU-27 5,952 3,652 5,463 4,679 4,338 3,280 India 505 501 721 5,539 2,400 1,025 Russia 1,534 1,452 1,836 1,419 4,943 2,450 Serbia nr nr 863 132 1,478 2,005 South Africa 1,553 1,429 462 1,145 2,159 2,540 Ukraine 6,465 7,439 3,942 5,909 11,380 11,015 Others 10,457 8,888 10,976 5,574 5,349 5,270 Subtotal 50,507 47,054 55,422 60,489 58,193 56,775 United States 50,692 61,443 59,157 68,289 51,718 53,950 World Total 101,199 108,497 114,579 128,778 109,911 110,725 none TY Imports Algeria 2,273 2,139 2,588 2,433 2,080 2,105 Brazil 745 1,107 1,472 1,258 1,494 950 Canada 2,339 2,029 2,285 3,187 1,900 2,070 Chile 1,189 1,678 1,766 1,969 1,261 1,625 China 2,073 2,306 1,156 1,157 1,651 1,635 Colombia 2,516 3,380 3,714 3,603 3,652 3,775 Dominican Republic 1,031 1,068 1,212 1,074 900 1,000 Egypt 5,405 4,418 4,845 4,174 5,066 4,225 EU-27 2,906 2,883 8,738 19,892 2,996 2,830 Iran 3,858 3,000 3,600 3,900 5,000 3,700 Israel 1,700 1,588 1,684 1,776 1,461 1,425 Japan 19,709 19,765 19,668 19,210 19,611 19,460 Jordan 938 1,234 1,186 889 825 850 Kenya 269 115 6 210 1,304 1,060 Korea, South 8,710 8,545 8,797 9,358 7,254 7,570 Malaysia 2,406 2,517 2,363 3,181 2,400 2,600 Mexico 8,977 9,928 11,040 11,011 10,467 12,450 Morocco 1,989 1,975 2,150 2,185 1,784 1,735 Peru 1,366 1,548 1,646 1,592 1,399 1,620 Saudi Arabia 7,724 8,575 7,578 9,968 9,185 9,305 Syria 2,281 2,006 2,079 2,511 2,850 2,900 Taiwan 4,757 4,743 4,403 4,684 4,672 4,725 Tunisia 1,228 1,230 1,519 1,183 900 1,100 Venezuela 107 152 534 1,103 1,341 1,300 Vietnam 291 475 650 700 1,100 900 Others 11,444 14,193 13,899 14,367 12,243 12,060 Subtotal 98,231 102,597 110,578 126,575 104,796 104,975 Unaccounted 726 3,605 1,396 -1,407 2,308 3,125 United States 2,242 2,295 2,605 3,610 2,807 2,625 World Total 101,199 108,497 114,579 128,778 109,911 110,725 TY=Trade Year, see Endnotes. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA Office of Global Analysis February 2010
  14. 14. World Coarse Grains Production, Consumption, and Stocks Local Marketing Years, Thousand Metric Tons 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 Feb none Production Argentina 24,899 19,351 27,034 26,974 16,223 22,673 Australia 11,409 13,527 6,583 12,895 11,970 11,817 Brazil 37,874 44,167 53,184 61,344 53,624 53,614 Canada 25,602 24,939 23,145 27,841 27,167 22,373 China 138,252 147,696 159,098 159,105 172,700 162,000 Ethiopia 5,763 7,179 7,928 8,302 9,236 8,825 EU-27 166,579 146,267 137,421 136,123 161,579 152,580 India 33,560 34,040 33,810 40,630 39,170 33,600 Indonesia 7,200 6,800 7,850 8,500 8,700 9,000 Mexico 28,975 25,887 29,181 30,577 31,485 29,329 Nigeria 23,200 24,700 26,000 24,000 26,600 27,500 Russia 29,600 27,600 30,200 29,325 40,700 31,800 South Africa 12,209 7,311 7,760 13,690 13,084 12,003 Turkey 11,055 11,955 10,896 9,480 10,315 10,395 Ukraine 23,000 18,140 19,175 14,585 26,220 24,120 Others 116,221 120,485 126,891 124,632 126,938 133,597 Subtotal 695,398 680,044 706,156 728,003 775,711 745,226 United States 319,378 298,710 279,998 349,861 325,867 350,258 World Total 1,014,776 978,754 986,154 1,077,864 1,101,578 1,095,484 none Domestic Consumption Argentina 9,055 9,471 9,519 9,897 6,673 10,073 Brazil 41,558 42,197 43,304 45,279 47,504 48,279 Canada 22,944 22,859 24,505 24,021 22,850 22,173 China 141,072 147,105 153,465 157,015 160,425 167,575 Egypt 12,364 11,163 11,800 11,477 11,863 11,980 EU-27 152,573 147,538 147,877 154,155 152,105 153,205 India 33,240 33,800 32,520 35,500 36,400 32,850 Japan 19,881 20,089 19,823 19,460 19,710 19,605 Mexico 38,335 37,600 39,970 40,310 42,135 42,550 Nigeria 22,950 24,450 25,750 24,000 26,450 27,550 Russia 29,400 27,700 28,600 28,875 32,650 31,450 Saudi Arabia 7,160 8,235 8,760 9,680 9,580 10,080 South Africa 10,283 8,768 9,153 10,158 10,573 10,803 Turkey 11,536 11,462 11,602 10,609 10,575 10,310 Ukraine 15,175 12,415 13,150 11,835 13,720 13,590 Others 168,703 181,547 184,822 188,797 191,614 194,417 Subtotal 737,569 747,731 769,337 781,499 796,776 808,842 United States 240,177 245,022 242,798 274,533 275,748 296,675 World Total 977,746 992,753 1,012,135 1,056,032 1,072,524 1,105,517 none Ending Stocks Australia 2,153 2,804 1,205 2,666 3,330 3,400 Brazil 4,380 3,187 3,772 12,865 13,582 10,567 Canada 6,356 6,347 3,501 4,010 6,355 5,000 China 37,564 36,705 38,032 40,426 54,131 49,621 EU-27 25,128 22,275 15,138 12,768 20,102 18,977 Mexico 5,400 3,376 3,426 4,565 4,222 3,401 South Africa 3,435 2,443 1,776 3,251 3,382 3,172 Others 35,439 32,752 35,651 34,897 37,397 36,706 Subtotal 119,855 109,889 102,501 115,448 142,501 130,844 United States 58,800 54,767 36,174 45,059 47,060 48,684 World Total 178,655 164,656 138,675 160,507 189,561 179,528 Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA Office of Global Analysis February 2010
  15. 15. Regional Coarse Grains Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks Thousand Metric Tons Feb 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 TY Imports none North America 13,558 14,252 15,930 17,808 15,174 17,145 Central America 2,405 2,803 2,906 2,681 2,440 2,825 Caribbean 1,913 1,969 2,227 2,239 2,000 2,150 South America 6,462 8,791 10,181 10,672 10,149 10,150 European Union 2,906 2,883 8,738 19,892 2,996 2,830 Former Soviet Union - 12 1,129 1,052 949 1,027 564 545 Middle East 17,940 17,835 18,674 21,819 21,261 19,880 North Africa 11,603 10,481 11,671 10,755 10,730 10,015 Sub-Saharan Africa 2,738 3,540 2,387 2,679 3,244 2,845 East Asia 35,661 35,613 34,135 34,662 33,438 33,640 Southeast Asia 3,499 4,897 4,394 4,746 4,739 4,550 Others 659 776 991 1,205 868 1,025 Total 100,473 104,892 113,183 130,185 107,603 107,600 Production none North America 373,955 349,536 332,324 408,279 384,519 401,960 South America 73,026 73,858 92,137 100,084 81,449 88,329 European Union 166,579 146,267 137,421 136,123 161,579 152,580 Other Europe 12,781 12,659 11,568 9,370 12,292 11,718 Former Soviet Union - 12 63,030 55,307 58,701 53,912 78,140 67,440 Middle East 18,876 19,998 19,060 17,381 15,933 16,977 North Africa 11,786 9,371 11,211 9,894 9,871 13,932 Sub-Saharan Africa 77,479 81,425 87,260 90,587 94,703 95,036 East Asia 140,518 149,899 161,399 161,295 174,874 164,141 South Asia 39,291 40,395 40,020 46,925 45,128 39,908 Southeast Asia 21,583 22,000 23,838 26,062 26,153 26,840 Oceania 12,034 14,174 7,230 13,542 12,617 12,464 Others 3,838 3,865 3,985 4,410 4,320 4,159 Total 1,014,776 978,754 986,154 1,077,864 1,101,578 1,095,484 Domestic Consumption none North America 301,456 305,481 307,273 338,864 340,733 361,398 South America 65,791 68,213 70,951 74,697 73,222 78,324 European Union 152,573 147,538 147,877 154,155 152,105 153,205 Other Europe 12,174 12,044 11,533 10,456 10,604 10,775 Former Soviet Union - 12 54,628 50,113 51,260 50,444 57,441 55,795 Middle East 35,041 37,188 37,607 37,827 37,890 37,516 North Africa 21,816 20,820 22,029 21,161 20,748 22,710 Sub-Saharan Africa 77,459 84,638 88,391 88,359 94,560 95,497 East Asia 177,081 182,819 188,963 191,868 194,920 201,809 South Asia 38,890 40,067 38,801 42,052 42,416 39,233 Southeast Asia 23,814 26,093 26,834 28,740 29,598 30,315 Oceania 7,478 7,940 6,885 7,666 7,347 7,437 Others 8,205 8,467 9,014 9,312 8,991 9,151 Total 976,406 991,421 1,007,418 1,055,601 1,070,575 1,103,165 Ending Stocks none North America 70,556 64,490 43,101 53,634 57,637 57,085 South America 9,670 7,676 9,060 18,476 16,789 15,027 European Union 25,128 22,275 15,138 12,768 20,102 18,977 Other Europe 1,607 1,491 1,520 1,291 1,821 1,589 Former Soviet Union - 12 7,393 5,105 5,093 4,301 8,506 6,555 Middle East 7,442 7,951 8,167 7,498 7,882 6,973 North Africa 3,640 2,675 3,166 2,419 2,528 3,765 Sub-Saharan Africa 5,180 5,120 5,240 6,536 6,886 7,125 East Asia 41,705 40,586 41,793 44,954 58,125 53,527 South Asia 1,543 1,401 1,455 1,580 1,795 1,535 Southeast Asia 1,743 2,100 2,644 3,282 3,302 3,142 Oceania 2,234 2,883 1,293 2,729 3,390 3,457 Others 814 903 1,005 1,039 798 771 Total 178,655 164,656 138,675 160,507 189,561 179,528 NOTES: Regional definitions appear on last page of this circular. Imports are reported on a trade year basis. All other data are reported using local marketing years. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA Office of Global Analysis February 2010

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