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Finding Key Influencers and Viral Topics in Twitter Networks Related to ISIS, Brexit, and the 2016 Elections

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Paragon Science used a combination of network analysis, community detection, topic detection, sentiment analysis, and anomaly detection methods to find key influencers and viral topics in two recent Twitter data sets: one of 7.9 M tweets regarding ISIS, a second set consisting of more than 117 M tweets about the 2016 primary elections, and a third set of 7M tweets realted to Brexit.
Paragon Science's patented dynamic anomaly detection technology is based on methods drawn from dynamical systems and chaos theory. In particular, we can calculate finite-time Lyapunov exponents from any time-dependent data stream to find the clusters of entities that are behaving most chaotically compared to the rest of the data set. Because we do not have to specify normal vs. abnormal behavior in advance, no machine learning per se is required. In a robust fashion that is tolerant of missing or erroneous data, we can identify the "unknown unknowns" that can represent threats to be mitigate or opportunities to be seized. To date, our technique has been applied successfully to a broad range of industry verticals, including healthcare data (Advisory Board Company), web user behavior data (Vast), mobile phone data (Place IQ), vehicle pricing analytics (Digital Motorworks/CDK Global), online coupon data (RetailMeNot), email monitoring for patent law cases, and social media monitoring.

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Finding Key Influencers and Viral Topics in Twitter Networks Related to ISIS, Brexit, and the 2016 Elections

  1. 1. Finding Key Influencers and Viral Topics in Twitter Networks Related to ISIS, Brexit, and the 2016 Elections Steve Kramer, Ph.D. President & Chief Scientist Paragon Science, Inc. July 2016 steve.kramer@paragonscience.com @ParagonSci_Inc Copyright © 2006-2016 Paragon Science, Inc. All rights reserved.
  2. 2. Overview • Background Information about Paragon Science • Example 1: ISIS Twitter Network Analysis • Example 2: 2016 Election Twitter Network Analysis • Example 3: Brexit Twitter Network Analysis • Q & A Paragon Science, Inc. 2
  3. 3. About Paragon Science • Advisory Board Company • Analysis of Healthcare Data • Digital Motorworks/CDK Global • Vehicle Pricing Analytics • Houston Law Firm • Email Analysis for Patent Lawsuit • Place IQ • Mobile Phone Data Analysis • RetailMeNot • Web Analytics for Online Coupons • Vast.com • Web User Click Patterns Paragon Science, Inc. 3  Founder: Dr. Steve Kramer • PhD in computational physics (nonlinear dynamics) • Self-funded data science entrepreneur • 22 years of research and high-tech experience • Manager and consultant at software companies • Reviewer for scientific journals and conferences • Member of StartOut Austin steering committee   http://affinityincmagazine.com/paragon-science-puts-patented-technology-to-work-for- /
  4. 4. Paragon Science, Inc. 4 • Using our patented anomaly detection software to find the “unknown unknowns”: unusual changes that represent revenue opportunities to exploit or risks to mitigate • Many possible application areas: • Social media alerting and sentiment change detection • Pricing and market trend analysis and alerting • Fraud prevention (banking, insurance, online auctions,…) • Key advantages • No machine learning or training required • Robust to missing or erroneous data • Highly scalable and parallelizable What Are We Doing?
  5. 5. Paragon Science, Inc. 5 How Is It Done Today? • Existing approaches • Standard SNA metrics • Rule-based systems (transaction profiling, etc.) • Bayesian and other statistical/probabilistic models • Machine learning tools (neural nets, HMMs, etc.) • Some limitations of existing methods • Training requirements can be large for neural nets. • For rule-based systems, it is difficult to effectively predict or define new “bad” anomalies or patterns in advance. • Many current methods are not scalable to real-world operational requirements.
  6. 6. Paragon Science, Inc. 6 What Is New in Our Patented Approach? • A powerful anomaly detection approach that incorporates nonlinear time series analysis methods • US Patent #8738652 (1.usa.gov/1kkyVD9) “Systems and Methods for Dynamic Anomaly Detection” • Key questions answered: • Which entities behave or evolve differently than others in the data set? • Which entities have shifted their behavior unexpectedly?
  7. 7. Paragon Science, Inc. 7 What Is New in Our Approach? (Cont’d.) • Our framework inherently captures the dynamics of the entities under study, without having to specify in advance normal vs. abnormal behavior. • We can simultaneously analyze the time evolution of • Network structures • Any associated attributes (text terms, geospatial position, etc.) • Our technique is robust with respect to missing or erroneous data. • As result, we can • Find key players in rapidly changing networks • Provide early warning of viral videos and online documents • Focus attention on the most-anomalous events or transactions
  8. 8. Paragon Science, Inc. 8 Dynamic Anomaly Detection Overview • A general approach that incorporates nonlinear time series analysis methods • Complexity measures • Finite-time Lyapunov exponents (FTLEs) • Input data • Communications or transactional data streams • General time-dependent data sets • Key questions • Which entities behave or evolve differently than others in the data set? • Which entities have shifted their behavior unexpectedly?
  9. 9. Paragon Science, Inc. 9 Finite-Time Lyapunov Exponents (FTLEs) • General dynamical system • Flow map • Advects points in the state space • Describes the time evolution of the system
  10. 10. Paragon Science, Inc. 10 • FTLEs characterize the amount of stretching or contraction about a point x0 during a time interval T • Stability • Predictability • Definition Finite-Time Lyapunov Exponents (FTLEs)
  11. 11. Paragon Science, Inc. 11 • Similarly, characteristic vectors derived from the flow map’s Jacobian can describe the generalized directions of the local stretching or contraction. • Possible derivation approaches: • Weight-based column sampling • Singular value decomposition (SVD) • Principal component analysis (PCA) Derived Jacobian Vectors
  12. 12. Paragon Science, Inc. 12 Paragon Dynamic Anomaly Detection Representation of Data at t=ti Cluster Resolution Feature Vector Encoding Outlier Detection at t=ti 3+Time Intervals? Yes No Clustering / Segmentation Dynamic Anomaly Detection Nonlinear Time Series Analysis FTLEs, Dynamic Thresholds, etc. Pattern Classification Outlier Detection Domain-Specific Filtering Threat Signatures, Risk Profiles, etc.
  13. 13. Overview • Background Information about Paragon Science • Example 1: ISIS Twitter Network Analysis • Example 2: 2016 Election Twitter Network Analysis • Example 3: Brexit Twitter Network Analysis • Q & A Paragon Science, Inc. 13
  14. 14. Example 1: ISIS-Related Twitter Analysis Initial data set from Twitter API collected using twittertap: Date range: 11/30/2015 – 12/10/2015 2,541,812 tweets 7,802,210 generated links with hashtags, URLs, and user replies Research plan Perform k-core decomposition Run anomaly detection software on sub-networks of nodes in the central core to find the most influential users and most viral URLs Carry out community detection, topic detection, and sentiment analysis Paragon Science, Inc. 14
  15. 15. Example 1: ISIS-Related Twitter Network Paragon Science, Inc. 15 User A User B User C replies to mentions URL 1 URL 2 Hash Tag 1 Hash Tag 2 references uses uses references Link Type # Links User links to URL 2,014,572 User mentions user 2,867,633 User references hashtag 2,699,875 User references symbol 2,636 User replies to user 215,343
  16. 16. K-core Decomposition The k-core of a graph is a maximal subgraph in which each vertex has at least degree k. The coreness of a vertex is k if it belongs to the k-core but not to the (k+1)- core. The k-core decomposition is performing by recursively removing all the vertices (along with their respective edges) that have degrees less than k. The k-core decomposition of a network can be very effective in identifying the individuals within a network who are best positioned to spread or share information. M. Kitska, et al., “Identifying influential spreaders in complex networks,” arXiv:1001.5285v1 [physics.soc-ph] (2010). 16
  17. 17. K-Core Decomposition of the ISIS Network Paragon Science, Inc. 17 http://sourceforge.net/projects/lanet-vi/
  18. 18. Central Core of the ISIS Network Paragon Science, Inc. 18 Users at the center of the k-core decomposition are positioned well to spread information and influence the network.
  19. 19. Top URLs in the Central Core Paragon Science, Inc. 19 URL Web Page Title Coreness # Links http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/isis- would-love-you-bomb- 6941441#ICID=sharebar_twitter ISIS would love you to bomb them to bring about apocalyptic final fight, says journalist who lived among terrorists - Jurgen Todenhofer - Mirror Online 89 398 https://www.youtube.com/watch? v=nVDiK3J9PKQ How to Paralyse & Eliminate ISIS in Less Than 24 Hours - Younus AlGohar - YouTube 89 384 http://shr.gs/Um8lnCZ Jihadi BILLIONAIRES: ISIS top terror rich list“ but how are they blowing all the dough? 89 349 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FS9iPz-cPlY Humanity Under Attack! What Must Be Done Now? - Younus AlGohar - YouTube 89 331 http://is.gd/txNkng How to Paralyse & Eliminate ISIS in Less Than 24 Hours - Younus AlGohar 89 327 http://bbc.in/aggad Paris attacks: Bataclan third attacker identified - BBC News 89 317 http://ti.me/1XPKXcx London Subway Attacker Had ISIS Images on Phone: Officials 89 317 http://dailym.ai/1NFIp5L ISIS releases its latest video as they execute two ˜sorcerers” in Libya | Daily Mail Online 89 298 http://youtu.be/mXOSQj4xjPY Fitna-e-Khwarij - YouTube 89 259 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/ northamerica/usa/12037849/ Majority-of-Americans-support-sending-ground- troops-to-fight Majority of Americans support sending ground troops to fight Isil 89 255
  20. 20. Top 5 URLs in the Central Core 20
  21. 21. Top Users in the Central Core Paragon Science, Inc. 21 User Coreness # Links MailOnline 89 6255 David_Cameron 89 3330 Telegraph 89 2072 TarekFatah 89 1907 BBCWorld 89 992 younusalgohar 89 977 mehdifoundation 89 830 rafu007 89 791 TIMEWorld 89 700 niallboylan4fm 89 667
  22. 22. Topic Detection in the ISIS Twitter Network Paragon Science, Inc. 22 User A User B User C replies to mentions URL 1 URL 2 references Term 1 Term 2 Term N Term 3 Topic 1 Topic 2 Topic M  146 Topics Detected
  23. 23. Title-to-Term Network for Topic Detection 23Paragon Science, Inc.
  24. 24. Title-to-Term Network for Topic Detection 24Paragon Science, Inc.
  25. 25. Topic 3 Communities of Users 25Paragon Science, Inc.
  26. 26. Topic 3 Top 10 Web Sites 26Paragon Science, Inc.
  27. 27. Topic 3 Selected Users 27Paragon Science, Inc.
  28. 28. Topic 4 Top Web Sites 28Paragon Science, Inc.
  29. 29. Incorporating Sentiment Analysis • Incorporate sentiment analysis scores as an input to dynamic anomaly detection in order to track the propagation of references to websites with particular emotions. • Use the LIWC (Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count) tool to calculate the sentiment scores of the web pages. – Prof. James Pennebaker from UT Austin ( http://liwc.wpengine.com/) – Sample categories • Positive emotion • Negative emotion • Anger • Anxiety Paragon Science, Inc.
  30. 30. Top Web Pages by Anxiety Web Page Title URL Anxiety Score Watch Daniel Scavino Jr.'s Vine "POTUS on terrorism." https://vine.co/v/i71FvOKlYgv 11.11 *WARNING: New ISIS VIDEO: Muslim Children Execute Captives, Obama, we will behead you, as we will do to all the Jews | Pamela Geller http://bit.ly/1TMcgif 6.51 The Mastermind Of The San Bernardino Massacre Has All The Hallmarks Of An ISIS Terrorist Attack... - Linkis.com http://ln.is/shoebat.com/2015/ 12/PGcNB 5.56 The Far-Reaching Effects of Global Terrorism - YouTube http://youtu.be/L_qr01yHoQs 4.85 Terrorism isn't scaring Americans; Obama is by Andrew Malcolm - Investors.com http://news.investors.com/poli tics-andrew-malcolm/120715- 784023-obama-isis-speech-no- new-strategy.htm 4.03 57 Paris airport workers on terror watch list, “Allahu akbar” scrawled on fuel tank http://www.jihadwatch.org/20 15/12/57-paris-airport- workers-on-terror-watch-list- allahu-akbar-scrawled-on-fuel- tank 3.03 DIA Emails: ISIS was deliberately armed and funded by Obama & Hillary Clinton http://ian56.blogspot.com/201 5/06/the-terrorist-threat-has- been.html?m=1 2.94 Paragon Science, Inc.
  31. 31. Top Web Pages by Negative Emotion RatioWeb Page Title URL Negative/ Positive Emotion Score Russian airstrike 'kills family in their car' as bombs obliterate ISIS oil convoy | Daily Mail Online http://dailym.ai/1IIU2Yz 21.9 Study: Unprecedented support for ISIS in the U.S. - CNNPolitics.com http://cnn.it/1XF0p61 13.3 US-led coalition not striking ISIS oil trucks despite evidence – Russia’s General Staff” RT News http://on.rt.com/6y9c 12.1 ISIS PARIS TERRORIST Recruited Fighters at Hungarian Refugee Camp - YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch? v=88TJBvH1zzg 11.9 U.S. rejects Russia’s claim of Turkey’s cooperation with ISIS http://goo.gl/Q9MWGk 11.8 Islamic State's Sinai chief said in Gaza to coordinate with Hamas | The Times of Israel http://bit.ly/1N6bqZa 10.0 Is ISIS Entering US Through Mexico? Amid Islamic State Fears, Border Patrol Captures Afghan, Pakistani Men Being Smuggled Into Country http://bit.ly/1l9Mxo1 9.8 Why Can't White House Just Say ISIS Beheaded Christians? - Investors.com http://ift.tt/1zMpWNz 8.6 For the Record: How Stubborn U.S. Leaders May Be Hurting the Fight Against ISIS on Vimeo https://vimeo.com/147860012 8.4 Just 0.4 Percent of Syrian Refugees Admitted to U.S. Since Paris Attacks Are Christian - Breitbart http://www.breitbart.com/big- government/2015/12/08/just-0-4- percent-syrian-refugees-admitted- u-s-since-paris-attacks-christian/ 8.1
  32. 32. Paragon Science, Inc. 32 Mapping Anomalies to Source Data Anomalies Discrete/Continuous Attribute Distributions Related Source Data Where and when are the hotspots of changes? Which nodes and attributes were involved in each anomalous peak?
  33. 33. Anomaly Detection Results for Websites with Negative Emotions Paragon Science, Inc. 33 Surge of Twitter user links to web page with high negative emotion score: “The ISIS Trail of Death - NBC News”
  34. 34. Summary of Top 50 Negative Emotion Anomalies 34 Web Page Title Peak Start Peak End Max Change Metric # Anomalies The ISIS Trail of Death - NBC News 2015-12-08 03:36:39 2015-12-09 13:36:39 3.01 24 Russia strikes ISIS targets in Syria from sub in Mediterranean for first time (VIDEO) RT News 2015-12-09 07:36:39 2015-12-09 16:36:39 2.33 8 US Air Force running out of bombs to fight ISIS | Fox News 2015-12-06 07:36:39 2015-12-06 21:36:39 2.10 2 If you keep saying Saudi Arabia is like ISIS, you might get sued - The Washington Post 2015-12-02 04:36:39 2015-12-07 09:36:39 2.01 11 Everyone knows what’s going on: Istanbul residents on Turkey-ISIS oil trade — RT News 2015-12-04 15:36:39 2015-12-04 16:36:39 1.96 2 Is ISIS Entering US Through Mexico? Amid Islamic State Fears, Border Patrol Captures Afghan, Pakistani Men Being Smuggled Into C 2015-12-03 15:36:39 2015-12-03 15:36:39 1.91 1 Iran news in brief, 30 November 2015 - YouTube 2015-12-01 17:36:39 2015-12-01 17:36:39 1.90 1 No Christians: All 132 Syrian Refugees Admitted to U.S. Since Paris Attacks Are Sunni Muslims 2015-12-01 19:36:39 2015-12-01 19:36:39 1.89 1
  35. 35. Most-Anomalous Negative Emotion ISIS Web Page Shared by Twitter Users 35
  36. 36. Animation of ISIS Twitter Network Paragon Science, Inc. 36 Many thanks to Carey Lanum from Cambridge Intelligence, maker of KeyLines. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7Sof3BdDSY
  37. 37. Overview • Background Information about Paragon Science • Example 1: ISIS Twitter Network Analysis • Example 2: 2016 Election Twitter Network Analysis • Example 3: Brexit Twitter Network Analysis • Q & A Paragon Science, Inc. 37
  38. 38. Example 2: Election 2016 Twitter Network Paragon Science, Inc. 38 Data set from Twitter API collected using twittertap:  Date range: 2/24/2016-7/21/2016 (with a few gaps)  117 M tweets sent by 2.8 M users  247 M generated links with hashtags, URLs, and user replies K-core decomposition:  Performed once for each day  Maximum coreness of 88  Central part of the network created by selecting the three innermost shells for each day
  39. 39. K-Core Decomposition of the Innermost February/March Election 2016 Twitter Network Paragon Science, Inc. 39
  40. 40. Detail View of the Central Core Paragon Science, Inc. 40
  41. 41. Top 10 Users in the Central Core Paragon Science, Inc. 41
  42. 42. Top 10 URLs in the Central Core Paragon Science, Inc. 42 URL Degree http://www.infowars.com/report-trump-supporters-in-texas-see-votes-switched-to- rubio/ 2334 http://www.bostonherald.com/news/us_politics/2016/02/amid_trump_surge_nearly_2 0000_mass_voters_quit_democratic_party 1665 http://newsninja2012.com/gov-nikki-haley-just-became-a-liability-for-rubio-after-this- was-published-to-social-media/ 1340 http://www.thepoliticalinsider.com/donald-trump-quietly-helped-marine-whom- obama-ignored/ 1203 https://www.donaldjtrump.com/press-releases/donald-j.-trump-demands-retraction- of-misleading-ads-produced-by-marco-rubi 1172 http://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/feb/29/victims-illegal-immigrant-violence- gop-no-rubio/ 1136 http://goo.gl/cTEFYR 978 http://drudge.tw/1ngE3Mt 778 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/02/21/donald-trump- consults-with-rudy-giuliani-as-he-builds-political-kitchen-cabinet/ 770
  43. 43. Top URL in the Central Core Paragon Science, Inc. 43
  44. 44. Top 10 URLs in the Entire Network Paragon Science, Inc. 44 URL Coreness Degree https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnpO_RTSNmQ 63 17524 https://amp.twimg.com/v/077834f2-a406-49cd-bfd4- e6b64274e885 36 17162 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnpO_RTSNmQ 67 12703 https://amp.twimg.com/v/077834f2-a406-49cd-bfd4- e6b64274e885 23 12229 https://amp.twimg.com/v/077834f2-a406-49cd-bfd4- e6b64274e885 26 11687 http://cnn.it/1RxbzsD 64 6795 http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/02/2 9/ donald-trump-georgia-rally-valdosta/81129964/ 71 6692 https://vine.co/v/i6AX96L7Xgi 12 6061 https://vine.co/v/i6AX96L7Xgi 10 5962
  45. 45. Top URL in the Entire Network Paragon Science, Inc. 45
  46. 46. Community Detection in the Central Core Paragon Science, Inc. 46 10 communities detected
  47. 47. Hillary Clinton Sub-Network Paragon Science, Inc. 47
  48. 48. Marco Rubio Sub-Network Paragon Science, Inc. 48
  49. 49. Bernie Sanders Sub-Network Paragon Science, Inc. 49
  50. 50. Donald Trump Sub-Network Paragon Science, Inc. 50
  51. 51. Central Core of the Network (Feb.-July 2016) Paragon Science, Inc. 51 Many thanks to Andrew Pitts, CEO of Polinode.
  52. 52. Central Core of the Network (Feb.-July 2016) Paragon Science, Inc. 52
  53. 53. Central Core Network: Top 5 URLs by Anger Paragon Science, Inc. 53 URL Title URL Anger Hillary's 'Nixonian' War On The Clinton Women https://amp.twimg.com/v/8eba1d2f-98ad-4982-94c2- 5a34c378643b 12.82 Hillary Clinton "Took Me Through Hell" says 12 year old RAPE victim https://amp.twimg.com/v/f0b2933e-f6c4-4518-97b0-10dcc0154c0b 10.81 Ted Cruz's Poison Pills 2 https://amp.twimg.com/v/25a20aac-976c-44fb-914b-d21a311f4646 10.53 Trump Supporter Confronts Cruz over Delegates https://amp.twimg.com/v/77181aa9-ce72-4320-b05d- ad3b4d40e24f 9.38 Travis Angry - Here are my thoughts about what I... | Facebook https://www.facebook.com/travis.angry/posts/10153412004461761 8.7
  54. 54. Central Core Network: Top 5 URLs by Anxiety Paragon Science, Inc. 54 URL Title URL Anxiety BREAKING: Egypt Charges Obama and Hillary with Conspiring with Terrorist Muslim Brotherhood - Linkis.com http://ln.is/conservativetribune.com/utLNr 6.9 New York Values https://amp.twimg.com/v/94ed4290-7ce8-49eb- 803e-3f0a51426721 5 Woodward: Hillary and Smart Dems are Seriously Worried About Trump's New Voters - Breitbart http://www.breitbart.com/video/2016/03/20/bob- woodward/ 3.82 Epic Trump Debate https://amp.twimg.com/v/564e3596-30d7-4e95- b999-f89c556acd47 3.7 Twitter Video https://amp.twimg.com/v/2c112458-ed8c-46c1- 9b15-efae92c748b3 3.45
  55. 55. Central Core Network (July 11-20, 2016) Paragon Science, Inc. 55 http://bit.ly/2aooq4P
  56. 56. July Network: Community 1 Paragon Science, Inc. 56
  57. 57. July Network: Community 1 Top URLs Paragon Science, Inc. 57
  58. 58. July Network: Community 1 Top User Paragon Science, Inc. 58
  59. 59. July Network: Community 1 Top User Paragon Science, Inc. 59
  60. 60. July Network: Community 2 Paragon Science, Inc. 60
  61. 61. July Network: Community 2 Top URLs Paragon Science, Inc. 61
  62. 62. July Network: Community 3 Paragon Science, Inc. 62
  63. 63. July Network: Community 3 Top URLs Paragon Science, Inc. 63
  64. 64. July Network: Community 4 Paragon Science, Inc. 64
  65. 65. July Network: Community 4 Top URLs Paragon Science, Inc. 65
  66. 66. July Network: Community 5 Paragon Science, Inc. 66
  67. 67. July Network: Community 5 Top URLs Paragon Science, Inc. 67
  68. 68. July Network: Community 6 Paragon Science, Inc. 68
  69. 69. July Network: Community 6 Top URLs Paragon Science, Inc. 69
  70. 70. Overview • Background Information about Paragon Science • Example 1: ISIS Twitter Network Analysis • Example 2: 2016 Election Twitter Network Analysis • Example 3: Brexit Twitter Network Analysis • Q & A Paragon Science, Inc. 70
  71. 71. Brexit Central Twitter Network Paragon Science, Inc. 71
  72. 72. Brexit Central Twitter Network: Top URLs Paragon Science, Inc. 72 URL URL Title Coreness # Links http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/25/m edia/donald-trump-rupert-murdoch- scotland/index.html Donald Trump and Rupert Murdoch sit down for post-Brexit dinner - Jun. 25, 2016 30 61 http://www.express.co.uk/news/politi cs/683581/David-Cameron-told-get- out-now-stop-Remain-MPs-blocking- Brexit Plot to BLOCK Britain's exit from EU: PM pressured to go after bid to overturn EU ref vote | Politics | News | Daily Express 23 111 http://heatst.com/uk/exclusive-brexit- 2nd-referendum-petition-a-4-chan- prank-bbc-report-it-as-real/ EXCLUSIVE: Brexit 2nd Referendum Petition A 4 Chan Prank: BBC Report It As Real|Heat Street 23 158 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/ 2016/06/29/new-zealand-offers-uk-its- top-trade-negotiators-for-post-brexit/ New Zealand offers UK its top trade negotiators for post-Brexit deals 23 179 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world- australia-36637554 Ex-Australia PM John Howard praises UK Brexit decision - BBC News 22 64
  73. 73. Brexit “Uncertainty” Twitter Network Paragon Science, Inc. 73
  74. 74. Brexit “Uncertainty” Twitter Network: Top URLs Paragon Science, Inc. 74 URL URL Title Uncertainty Negative Emotion http://reut.rs/28Z0OUt 10 ways to leave EU lover; scenarios for Brexit | Reuters 31 34 http://tech.newstatesman.com/news/halt- investigatory-powers-bill-brexit Call to halt IP Bill until Brexit "political crisis" is solved 27 9 http://on.mktw.net/28YdDM5 These U.K.-loving U.S. stocks could really get hammered by Brexit - MarketWatch 26 18 http://www.express.co.uk/news/ politics/683581/David-Cameron-told-get- out-now-stop-Remain-MPs-blocking-Brexit Plot to BLOCK Britain's exit from EU: PM pressured to go after bid to overturn EU ref vote | Politics | News | Daily Express 23 17 http://seekingalpha.com/article/3984535- brexit-tracking-weekends- developments?source=twitter_sa_factset Brexit: Tracking The Weekend's Developments - CurrencyShares Euro Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:FXE) | Seeking Alpha 23 21
  75. 75. Paragon Science, Inc. 75 What Are the Payoffs? • Find the “unknown unknowns” in dynamic data sets • Quickly identify key influencers and trends in online networks • Provide early warning of viral videos, anomalous web events, or unusual network traffic • Enable enhanced business intelligence without having to specify normal vs. abnormal behavior in advance
  76. 76. Third-Party Software Acknowledgements • Paragon Science gratefully acknowledges the following researchers and software providers: • Cytoscape (http://www.cytoscape.org/) • KeyLines (http://www.keylines.com) • Lanet-vi (http://sourceforge.net/projects/lanet-vi/) • J. Alvarez-Hamelin, et al. "Understanding Edge Connectivity in the Internet through Core Decomposition," Internet Mathematics 7 (1): 45–66, 2011. • Louvain community detection software (http://perso.crans.org/aynaud/communities/) • V. Blondel, et al., “Fast Unfolding of Communities in Large Networks,” Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment, 10, P10008, 2008. • Networkx (https://networkx.github.io/) • A Hagberg, D Conway, "Hacking social networks using the Python programming language (Module II - Why do SNA in NetworkX)", Sunbelt 2010: International Network for Social Network Analysis. • Polinode (https://www.polinode.com) Paragon Science, Inc. 76
  77. 77. Overview • Background Information about Paragon Science • Example 1: ISIS Twitter Network Analysis • Example 2: 2016 Election Twitter Network Analysis • Example 3: Brexit Twitter Network Analysis • Q & A Thanks for your interest! Steve Kramer @ParagonSci_Inc Paragon Science, Inc. 77

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