m a te              C li       m ic  o n oEc
The 3 main recessions in Canada since 98                   The dot-com bubble was a speculative bubble around .com        ...
Canada’s GDP annual growth rate                GDP dropped from 6% (2000) to 0,8%(end 2001)20002001            Demand => a...
Argentina’s GDP annual growth rate
Canada’s Unemployment Rate2000            GDP => unemployment rate but not in the same proportion. If the GDP dropped by20...
Argentina’s Unemployment Rate
Canada’s Inflation Rate2000             Increase from 2,1% to 4%2001            demand     => interest rate   + government ...
Argentina’s Inflation Rate
Canada’s Current Account2000    increase from 1,5 billions to 11 billions ($CAN)2001    expansion of exports (+ 5 billions...
Argentina’s Current Account
Canada’s Exchange Rate2000             CAN$ => exports and imports       => exports > imports => surplus => interest rate ...
Economic Climate                      Conclusion     Upward market     Downard market             All the economic     TRE...
Economic climate of Canada / Argentina
Economic climate of Canada / Argentina
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Economic climate of Canada / Argentina

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I analysed 5 economic indicators (GDP, BOP, Inflation rate, Unemployment and Exchange rate) of Canada and compare them to those from Argentina.

The presentation was Monday 20/12/2010 in Brussels (EPHEC)

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Economic climate of Canada / Argentina

  1. 1. m a te C li m ic o n oEc
  2. 2. The 3 main recessions in Canada since 98 The dot-com bubble was a speculative bubble around .com companies in the IT sector. Over 1999 and Early 2000 Federal Reserve increased interest rates six times it causedBubble the burst of the bubble and a recession wich was particularly important in North America (USA/Canada) 2003 Increase of imports because of a strong Canadian dollar and opening of the Chinese Market. Oil crisis in the 2004 Middle East the barrel price rose above 30$. Rise in subprime mortgages deliquencies andSubprimes foreclosure => Households couldn’t pay anymore their mortgages. Prices of the houses went down => They couldn’t Crisis refinance the first mortgage with a second one => default of payment => Infinite loop
  3. 3. Canada’s GDP annual growth rate GDP dropped from 6% (2000) to 0,8%(end 2001)20002001 Demand => accelerator effect => interest rate (1%) => multiplier effect => production (5,2%)2003 GDP dropped from 3,49%2004 (begin 2003) to 1,5%(end 2003) GDP growth rate has never2008 been as low as in 2009 with2010 -3,18% OECD sait it expected its members, mostly advanced economies such as Canada, to post Forecast for 2012 growth of 2,3% in 2011 and 3% in 2012
  4. 4. Argentina’s GDP annual growth rate
  5. 5. Canada’s Unemployment Rate2000 GDP => unemployment rate but not in the same proportion. If the GDP dropped by2001 5,2%, the unemployment rate increased by 1,3% GDP => unemployment rate2003 but not in the same proportion. If2004 the GDP dropped by 2,03%, the unemployment rate increased by 0,5% => a GDP growth rate so low2008 lead to an unemployment2010 rate very very high : 8,7% in 2009 => +1,8% compared to 2008 Canada’s unemployment rate is expected to remain steady in 2011-2012, in the high range Forecast for 2012 of 7%
  6. 6. Argentina’s Unemployment Rate
  7. 7. Canada’s Inflation Rate2000 Increase from 2,1% to 4%2001 demand => interest rate + government budget (1,5% of GDP) + subsides2003 dropped from 4,4% to 2%2004 increase of taxes - decrease of the government budget by 0,1% of the GDP2008 deflation of 0,9%2010 taxes => demand => GDP => unemployment rate The Bank of Canada aims to keep inflation at the 2% target and if the forecat are right they Forecast for 2012 will reach their monetary policy goal.
  8. 8. Argentina’s Inflation Rate
  9. 9. Canada’s Current Account2000 increase from 1,5 billions to 11 billions ($CAN)2001 expansion of exports (+ 5 billions $CAN) and imports (+3 billions $CAN) dropped from 7,64 billions to2003 0,7 billions ($CAN)2004 decrease of imports (-3 billions) and exports (-3 billions $CAN)2008 deficit of 13,7 billions ($CAN)2010 Big dependancy to the United States
  10. 10. Argentina’s Current Account
  11. 11. Canada’s Exchange Rate2000 CAN$ => exports and imports => exports > imports => surplus => interest rate + government2001 budget => inflation CAN$ => exports and imports 1,62003 => exports > imports => surplus2004 => interest rate + government 1,2 budget => inflation 0,8 The Canadian dollar undergoes2008 0,4 a depreciation of 0,08$CAN2010 because of the deflation and 0 the decrease of the GDP. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 The Bank of Canada faces a double issue for 2011 and 2012, they are expecting to increase Forecast for 2012 exports by keeping $CAN low/stable but if they do that the inflation rate will increase
  12. 12. Economic Climate Conclusion Upward market Downard market All the economic TRENDS indicators => are LINKED togeter Since 2000 => BEAR Market

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