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WhatTheyThink Economic Webinar 9/23/2009 Dr. Joe Webb


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Quarterly economic webinar that focuses mainly on the printing and media industries, PLEASE NOTE THAT SLIDES ARE NOT SYNCED WITH AUDIO but a Flash version of the event can be accessed at with free signup.

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WhatTheyThink Economic Webinar 9/23/2009 Dr. Joe Webb

  1. 1. WhatTheyThink Economic Outlook Webinar Dr. Joe Webb, Director WhatTheyThink Economics & Research Center September 23, 2009 This program will begin at 2 PM EDT
  2. 2. Agenda <ul><li>The shape of the recovery </li><ul><li>V, W, rocket, submarine, or a big fat zero? </li></ul><li>Our latest survey
  3. 3. What's ahead for print and media in 2010
  4. 4. Print '09 </li><ul><li>How did we do? What does it mean? </li></ul><li>Dr. Joe's Fall reading list </li></ul>
  5. 5. Stagflation is here <ul><li>Unemployment 9.7% </li><ul><li>Productivity rising faster than GDP, removes need for additional hiring </li></ul><li>Inflation being reported only @ Y-Y level </li><ul><li>Since December 2008 is a different story
  6. 6. ISM reports show input prices rising </li></ul><li>GDP well below post-WW2 levels </li><ul><li>Consumption not increasing despite increased government spending
  7. 7. Lower interest rates not working </li></ul></ul>
  8. 8. GDP was sub-par before recession Y/Y GDP Q/Q GDP
  9. 9. Still a problem: money supply How does the Fed get out?
  10. 10. Fed still lending < inflation rate
  11. 11. Is there inflation or not? CPI Y/Y vs. since 12/08
  12. 12. Leading indicators
  13. 13. Exports & imports
  14. 14. Latest recovery indicators
  15. 15. Bottom lines: Employment & Inflation <ul><li>Unemployment will not improve for a while </li><ul><li>White House projects > 10% next year
  16. 16. May not get that bad, but return to 8% may not be until 2011 or 2012
  17. 17. Watch the household survey, not payrolls </li></ul><li>Inflation will become more of a recognized problem, pressuring Fed to raise rates </li><ul><li>Fed's target has always been 2% maximum, and they are ignoring it in interests of “financial stability,” which is counterproductive </li></ul></ul>
  18. 18. Bottom line: GDP <ul><li>GDP will be stagnant: -1% to +1.5% </li><ul><li>“Breakout” high growth quarter could appear, but will be unsustainable
  19. 19. Paralyzed by tax and regulatory uncertainty, will remain paralyzed once become law
  20. 20. Protectionist turn will continue to limit growth, incomes
  21. 21. Asia, despite erratic growth patterns, will still be primary growth market </li></ul></ul>
  22. 22. Bottom line: Spending <ul><li>Technology continues to be major focus </li><ul><li>Increase productivity without adding staff
  23. 23. Consumer tech changes media allocation </li></ul><li>Consumers continue to be cautious </li><ul><li>“Savings” will still be characterized as a problem
  24. 24. Personal spending will be basically flat in real terms for 2010
  25. 25. Autos may be critical sign </li></ul></ul>
  26. 26. Bottom Line: The Fed <ul><li>Reluctant to raise rates; no pre-emptive action against inflation </li><ul><li>Raising rates will reduce value of bonds </li></ul><li>Dollar will stay relatively weak </li><ul><li>Dollar has generally strong correlation with economic growth: strong $, strong growth
  27. 27. US businesses will be attractive targets for acquisition; better deal than Treasuries </li></ul><li>Still propping up old assets (housing) and not new investment </li></ul>
  28. 28. So... which letter is it? <ul><li>U- or W-shaped recovery? </li><ul><li>W is more likely </li></ul><li>Be careful of the L-shaped non-recovery
  29. 29. Two scenarios: </li><ul><li>Late 1970s: bad stagflation
  30. 30. Japan 1990s: bad stagnation
  31. 31. Either one is a bad result </li></ul></ul>
  32. 32. 9 quarters of negative real “growth”
  33. 34. Forecasts: 2 models, WTT opinion 2009 = $86.5, 2014 = $58.0
  34. 35. The Latest Survey... Is it true optimism, or “it can't get worse than this”?
  35. 36. Business conditions: Q2 was the bottom
  36. 37. 2010 Expectations
  37. 38. Regional conditions and expectations
  38. 39. Printers and social media
  39. 40. What's Ahead for Print and Media? It's time to be social...
  40. 41. Round 2 survey of marketers and their plans for 2010
  41. 42. Center for Media Research: Advertisers Plan to Use in 2010
  42. 43. The new media strategy <ul><li>Paid advertising in permanent decline </li><ul><li>New role for agencies leads to new structure
  43. 44. The “old” publishing business is just that: old </li></ul><li>Continuing rise in unpaid initiatives </li><ul><li>More PR workers than graphic designers? </li></ul><li>Saturation of many communications channels </li><ul><li>Lower expectations for each </li></ul><li>“Integrated” and “multichannel” assume that there is a coordinated plan </li><ul><li>There is none yet: no one knows what the right mix is </li></ul></ul>
  44. 45. The new media mix challenge <ul><li>One can only view one screen at a time
  45. 46. Multitasking is accepted part of life </li><ul><li>Doing it for years, but passively
  46. 47. Active multitasking is newer, more personal </li></ul><li>There's only so much time in a day </li><ul><li>Internet & connectivity take up more of it
  47. 48. Nudge out traditional media, even in B2B </li></ul><li>All media becoming direct marketing media
  48. 49. Consumer control and preference work against traditional communications media
  49. 50. Branding and its consistency is more important than ever </li></ul>
  50. 51. Where Will Future Profits Come From?
  51. 52. Print '09 What's It All Mean?
  52. 53. Print '09: What's it all mean? <ul><li>For a recession show with no major technology revolution, it was good </li><ul><li>Longing for the days of Print97? (Internet bubble) </li></ul><li>Is “the right people showed up” (we hear it after every show, no matter where or when it is) correct or just comforting?
  53. 54. Trade shows still an essential part of communications and social strategy </li><ul><li>Software/communications/connectivity is tough to display </li></ul><li>The “industry” (whatever that means) still needs a central place to physically meet </li></ul>
  54. 55. Dr. Joe's Fall Reading (and Watching) List The new role of print?
  55. 56. Fall Reading List <ul><li>Watch this or else </li><ul><li>Social media video now up to 660K+ views
  56. 57. David Meerman Scott explains social media and how old rules of marketing don't apply online (in just one minute!) </li></ul><li>Charts of the Week you may have missed </li><ul><li>PR specialists as a percentage of agency employment
  57. 58. “ Ancillary services ” growth in printers 2002-2007
  58. 59. Change in newspaper advertising revenue </li></ul></ul>
  59. 60. Fall Reading List <ul><li>How Apple gets the rest of the world to do its marketing for it
  60. 61. Facebook hits 300 million users
  61. 62. NYC boutique hotel uses social media in a unique way
  62. 63. Best ways to turn clicks into business
  63. 64. Newspaper charges more for online than it does for print, increases print subs </li></ul>
  64. 65. Fall Reading List <ul><li>UN wants a global currency ?
  65. 66. Magazines acting more like ad agencies
  66. 67. SmartBrief has superb e-newsletters
  67. 68. New version of ACT! sales software has e-mail campaign and social media capabilities
  68. 69. Center for Media Research article about advertisers' social media plans for 2010 </li></ul>
  69. 70. Fall Reading List <ul><li>The Economist is selling single copies via cell phone , delivers print copy next day
  70. 71. Photo sites now competing with Facebook
  71. 72. CNN on future of libraries
  72. 73. Cynical (but all too accurate?) comic about what “marketing services” means </li></ul>
  73. 74. Fall Reading List <ul><li>Dr. Joe's Print 09 presentation “Entrepreneurs Welcome: Opportunities in the New Printing Industry” </li><ul><li>On Slideshare
  74. 75. .zip of audio and PDF from WTT site </li></ul><li>Dr. Joe answers Xerox Opportunity Panel pre-event questions </li></ul>
  75. 76. Upcoming Dr. Joe Sightings <ul><li>Print Solutions 2009 , Chicago, Oct. 15
  76. 77. Strategy 09 , Toronto, Nov.11
  77. 78. Graphics Canada , Nov. 12
  78. 79. WTT Economic Webinar, Dec. 9
  79. 80. PLGA , February 2010 </li></ul>
  80. 81. Thank you! QUESTIONS!