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What If Danville Gets a Casino? Risks, Rewards, Uncertainties

A study commissioned by Danville Regional Foundation in Danville, VA to review the potential impacts of a proposed casino entertainment complex by Fourth Economy Consulting.

1 of 23
What if Danville gets a
Casino?
December 4-5, 2019
A Review of the Risks, Rewards and Uncertainties
About
The Danville Regional Foundation
engaged Fourth Economy to
conduct a study of the economic
and social impacts of a potential
gambling and entertainment
complex on Danville and
surrounding communities.
2
DRF is taking no position on the Casino.
Great Communities
▰ Market Analysis to Identify
Gaps and Opportunities
▰ Highest and Best Use
Studies
▰ Project feasibility Analysis
▰ Opportunity Zone and
Investment Prospectus
Development
Strong Economies
▰ Investment Criteria
Development
▰ Economic Competitiveness
Strategy
▰ Industry Analysis
▰ Sector Modeling
▰ Economic Impact Analysis
Impactful Organizations
▰ Data Driven Initiative
Development
▰ Business Planning
▰ Program Creation and
Evaluation
▰ Impact Assessment
3
At Fourth Economy We Create...
Project Team
4
Jerry Paytas, Ph.D.
Vice President, Research &
Analytics
Principal in Charge
Chris Worley
Consulting Analyst
Project Analyst - Economic
and Tax Impacts
Monica Hershberger
Design & Marketing Manager
Design and
Communications
Joshua Devine, CEcD
Economic Opportunity
Strategist
Project Analyst - Social
Impacts
Agenda
▰ Assumptions
▰ Key Findings
▰ Taxes and Revenues
▰ Job Creation
▰ Job Quality
▰ Development Impacts
▰ Tourism
▰ Social Impacts
5
Two potential state tax rates from proposed legislation (SB1706):
▰ 10 percent and 15 percent state gaming tax rate.
▰ Benchmark states ranged from 23 to nearly 47 percent.
Three scenarios for total casino revenues based on the experience
of casinos in a set of benchmark regions:
▰ Low Estimate: $50 million (Monticello NY, St. Joseph, MO)
▰ Mid Estimate: $150 million (Dubuque, IA)
▰ High Estimate: $300 million (Charles Town, WV)
6
Assumptions
Taxes and Revenues

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What If Danville Gets a Casino? Risks, Rewards, Uncertainties

  • 1. What if Danville gets a Casino? December 4-5, 2019 A Review of the Risks, Rewards and Uncertainties
  • 2. About The Danville Regional Foundation engaged Fourth Economy to conduct a study of the economic and social impacts of a potential gambling and entertainment complex on Danville and surrounding communities. 2 DRF is taking no position on the Casino.
  • 3. Great Communities ▰ Market Analysis to Identify Gaps and Opportunities ▰ Highest and Best Use Studies ▰ Project feasibility Analysis ▰ Opportunity Zone and Investment Prospectus Development Strong Economies ▰ Investment Criteria Development ▰ Economic Competitiveness Strategy ▰ Industry Analysis ▰ Sector Modeling ▰ Economic Impact Analysis Impactful Organizations ▰ Data Driven Initiative Development ▰ Business Planning ▰ Program Creation and Evaluation ▰ Impact Assessment 3 At Fourth Economy We Create...
  • 4. Project Team 4 Jerry Paytas, Ph.D. Vice President, Research & Analytics Principal in Charge Chris Worley Consulting Analyst Project Analyst - Economic and Tax Impacts Monica Hershberger Design & Marketing Manager Design and Communications Joshua Devine, CEcD Economic Opportunity Strategist Project Analyst - Social Impacts
  • 5. Agenda ▰ Assumptions ▰ Key Findings ▰ Taxes and Revenues ▰ Job Creation ▰ Job Quality ▰ Development Impacts ▰ Tourism ▰ Social Impacts 5
  • 6. Two potential state tax rates from proposed legislation (SB1706): ▰ 10 percent and 15 percent state gaming tax rate. ▰ Benchmark states ranged from 23 to nearly 47 percent. Three scenarios for total casino revenues based on the experience of casinos in a set of benchmark regions: ▰ Low Estimate: $50 million (Monticello NY, St. Joseph, MO) ▰ Mid Estimate: $150 million (Dubuque, IA) ▰ High Estimate: $300 million (Charles Town, WV) 6 Assumptions Taxes and Revenues
  • 7. 7 Assumptions Benchmark Communities Benchmark casinos and regions were chosen because they reflected different operating conditions for a potential casino within regions that shared some characteristics with Danville - a range of sizes, demographics and market locations. Shelbyville, IN St. Joseph, MO Monticello, NY Dubuque, IACharles Town, WV
  • 8. 8 Benchmark Casinos have pre-tax revenues of $30 million to $336 million. Compared to Benchmark Communities, Danville: ▰ Has a population in the 100-mile draw area that is in the middle of the pack. ▰ Has a proposed state tax rate that is lower than all of the benchmarks. Shelbyville, IN St. Joseph, MO Monticello, NY Charles Town, WV Dubuque, IA Danville, VA Pre-Tax Net Gaming Revenues of the Casino $276 M $43 M $30 M $336 M $117 M $50 M- $300 M (Estimated) Population within 100 miles 7.8 M 2.9 M 24 M 11.8 M 3 M 5.4 M State Tax Rate (Total State Casino Tax Revenue / Statewide Pre-Tax Net Gaming Revenue) 27% 26% 44% 47% 23% 10 - 15% (Proposed) How do the Benchmark communities compare?
  • 9. 9 Assumptions Comparison of Assumptions & Estimated Impacts Revenue Assumptions Low High Bristol Pre-Tax Net Gaming Revenue $50 M $300 M $600 M Casino Non-Gaming Revenues $5 M $15 M $289.7 M Casino Total Revenues $55 M $315 M $889.7 M Visitor Assumptions Low High Bristol Annual Visitors 180K - 367K 1- 2.1 M 4 M Daily Visitors 500-1K 3K-6K 11K Comparison of Impacts Low High Bristol Total Direct Employment 575 3,050 5,426 Total Estimated Tax Revenue to Danville $3.2 M $9.1M $20.3M How successful will it be? Revenues will depend on the number of visitors, their spending and the tax rate.
  • 10. How Many Visitors? Tourism Market Share Gallup reports that 26 percent of Americans visited a casino in the past year. Market shares of 26 percent or below are more feasible. 10 Spending per Visit Total Gaming and Non-Gaming Revenue $55M $160M $315M Estimated Market Share of Adult Population $150 8% 24% 47% $300 4% 12% 24% Lower Risk Higher Risk
  • 11. 11 Competition Danville’s casino will compete with other VA casinos for the in-state market and parts of the NC market. If the legislature sets the age at 21, there will be a smaller market. If NC legalizes casinos, Danville could lose a significant portion of its market and revenues. Note: Adult Population = 18 years and older
  • 12. 12 Who Benefits? Distribution of Benefits Low High Virginia Gaming Taxes $2.5M $22.5M Lynchburg Transportation District Gaming Taxes $1.9M $16.9M Danville Gaming Taxes $625K $5.6M Danville Other Taxes $2.6M $3.5M Jobs 575 Jobs 3,050 Jobs Aggregate Wages $12.7M $68.4M
  • 13. 13 How do the local taxes compare? Danville may get an effective local tax rate of 1.3 to 1.9 percent of the pre-tax net gaming revenues compared to an average of 2 percent for the benchmark host communities (1.1 percent excluding non-tax revenue for the Q Casino). Local Effective Gaming Tax Rates (Tax Revenue from Local Gaming / Pre-Tax Net Gaming Revenues of the Casino) City of Dubuque (+ other Q Casino revenues) 6.9% St. Joseph, MO 2.2% Danville (15% Tax Rate) 1.9% Danville (10% Tax Rate) 1.3% Shelbyville, IN 1.2% Monticello, NY 1.0% City of Dubuque (Tax Only) 0.5% Charles Town, WV 0.3% Average (excluding Danville) 2.0% Note: The City of Dubuque owns the Q Casino and has non-tax revenue as a result. Without the city revenue the average is 1.1%
  • 14. 14 Danville Non-Gaming Revenues Related Non-Gaming Revenue Low High Real Estate Tax $1,680,000 $1,848,000 Business Personal Property Tax $700,000 $1,540,000 Meals Tax $195,000 $585,000 Transient Lodging Tax $160,000 $480,000 Sales Tax to Danville $50,000 $150,000 Tax Diversion and Offset -$179,047 -$1,097,736 Subtotal Estimated Related Taxes for Danville $2,605,953 $3,505,264
  • 15. 15 Who Pays? Wages Wages for Casino Jobs: National average wage is $15.75/hr, but ⅔ of the workers earn less than $15/hr. Workers would need to earn $24/hr for a living wage for one adult, one child households. In Danville, 60 percent of children live in single parent households. These workers will need access to quality, flexible child care. Gambling jobs have higher average earnings for jobs with similar levels of training. Workers in jobs that require similar levels of training will see increased wages. Existing businesses may need to raise wages to compete for those workers.
  • 16. 16 National Wages by Occupation, 2018 Hourly Wage (Average) Annual Wage (Average) 3% Management $45.43 $94,500 2%All Other $27.01 $56,172 2% Business and Financial Operations $26.49 $55,090 4% Installation, Maintenance, and Repair $18.78 $39,060 11% Office and Administrative Support $15.90 $33,060 8% Protective Service $15.71 $32,680 2% Transportation and Material Moving $15.39 $32,010 29% Service Gaming Services Workers First-Line Supervisors Miscellaneous Entertainment Attendants $14.37 $29,890 7% Building Cleaning and Maintenance $13.24 $27,540 10% Sales and Related $13.21 $27,480 21% Food Preparation and Serving $12.85 $26,730 Higher Wage Lower Wage ⅔ of workers earn less than $15/hr. Nationally, ⅓ of gaming workers earn more than $15/hr. Source: Occupational Employment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics - NAICS 713200 - Gambling Industries
  • 17. 17 The wages (or earnings) for the new casino workers in Danville will determine how much opportunity these jobs provide to the workers. It will also influence whether existing business may need to raise wages to compete for those workers. . Job Quality 2018 Hourly Wages/Earnings for Select Industries
  • 18. 18 Who pays? Crime Impacts Crime: The most comprehensive (& only) national study found that 8 percent of crime in casino counties was attributable to casinos. This study included all U.S. counties from 1977 to 1996 and compared casino and non-casino counties. ▰ Critics have used case studies or selected samples to dispute the findings. ▰ In 20 years no critic has replicated the scale or time frame of this study. ▰ The National Center for Responsible Gaming (funded in part by casinos) has done no crime studies. ▰ Adjusting the crime rate for visitors should be done for all visitor attractions, but casinos are different because visitors may bring or leave with CASH! Benchmark counties with casinos had an average of +765 property crimes and +50 violent crimes per 100,000 residents versus other counties in their state.
  • 19. 19 Who pays? Problem Gambling Problem Gambling: Problem gambling could impact 2,200 local residents at an annual social cost of $1.3M in Danville and $1.9M in Pittsylvania. ▰ The annual social cost of problem gambling in Danville and Pittsylvania is estimated at $3.2M. ▰ Problem Gambling costs are social costs. Social costs include productivity losses, social services, and creditor losses. ▰ Social costs are not paid directly by the municipality, but are spread to employers, social service providers, and individuals.
  • 20. Factors that Drive the Impacts What are the +/- Spillovers? 20 Casino is isolated and all-inclusive Casino is embedded with complementary businesses Casino patrons are primarily local residents Casino competes with local businesses Casino provides limited spillover benefits to other businesses Casino patrons are not local residents Casino provides limited spillover benefits to other businesses Greatest potential for positive spillover benefits
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  • 23. Thanks! Any questions? Contact Jerry Paytas: ▰ jerry.paytas@fourtheconomy.com ▰ 412-356-3755 23

Editor's Notes

  1. Biggest ED project in Danville Change the direction of the City
  2. Work began in June of 2019 Summarize the process Lit Review Identify benchmarks Interviews in Danville and Benchmarks Model casino impacts Research social impacts
  3. Neutral Expertise in impact assessment, feasibility studies Understanding of economic and social systems
  4. Virginia’s proposed statewide tax rate of 10 percent to 15 percent is significantly below what other states have enacted. Tax rate comes from proposed legislation SB 1706 The casinos and states examined for this report have state tax rates that range from 23 percent to nearly 47 percent. Benchmark casinos have a range of revenues. We modeled multiple scenarios for total casino revenues. The low estimate of $55 million may reflect early operating years before the facility reaches full capacity. Or like the casinos in Monticello and St. Joseph, it may reflect the stabilized revenue over the long term based on competition from other facilities within and outside of Virginia. If a casino were to open in Danville, it is very likely to achieve the lower estimate, but it may be less likely to generate $315 million or more in gaming revenues.
  5. Indiana Grand = Caesars, 2009 – racing at Indiana Downs in 2002 St. Jo = Affinity Gaming, 1994 Charles Town = Hollywood: 1996 Video Machine 2009 Table Games Dubuque: Q casino = City owned, Diamond Jo is Boyd Gaming 1994 Diamond Jo 2005 Q Casino
  6. JLARC - $190M $4.5M in non gaming taxes $0 in gaming taxes: but maybe 1% or $1.9M 1,582 Jobs City: $363 M $4-$4.5M in gaming tax $4.8 - $5.4M in non gaming tax 2,377 Direct Jobs
  7. From the study completed by the city http://www.danvilleva.gov/DocumentCenter/View/24826/Casino-Visitation-Revenue-and-Impact-Assessment-Convergence-Strategy-Group-11-19-19 A significant majority of the projected demand will come from North Carolina residents, including a large number of gamers that may come from market areas where a casino could reasonably be expected to be sited if casinos become permissible, given their large population bases (i.e. Raleigh-Durham and Greensboro). Based on adjustments to our demand models, we come to the following conclusions: • Gaming Revenue potential could decline by 45 to 50% for a destination-scale casino, or 37 to 42% for a moderate-scale casino; • Patronage could decline by 40 to 45% for a destination-scale casino, or 30 to 35% for moderate-scale casino. JLARC: SB 1238 proposed setting the sports wagering age at 18 years old, while SB 1356, HB 2210 and HB 1638 proposed setting the age at 21 years old.
  8. Where do the benefits flow? Where do the costs hit?
  9. Pages 23-24 of the full report – real estate taxes & business personal property tax based estimate of $220 M to $264M Real estate alone = $200M to $220M Diversion in on Page 24 of the full report Sales 35% to 75% RE 2% to 10%
  10. Citation of the Crime study: Grinols, Earl and David Mustard. “Casinos, Crime, and Community Costs.” The MIT Press. 2006. Citation of the Problem Gambling study: “Gambling Impact and Behavior Study.” National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago. 1999. http://www.norc.org/PDFs/publications/GIBSFinalReportApril1999.pdf
  11. Grinols, Mustard and Dilley 2000 Grinols & Mustard 2006 We don't want to engage in a battle of studies. We looked at many studies and evidence on all sides of the argument and have determined what evidence we determined was the strongest. Critics have used case studies or selected samples to dispute the findings. In 20 years no critic has replicated the scale or time frame of this study. The National Center for Responsible Gaming (funded in part by casinos) has done no crime studies.
  12. 1.5% problem gambling, 1.2% pathological, total of 2.7% Best practice is that the state manages these programs – so will VA set aside sufficient money. JLARC: Studies in other states with broad legalized gaming (i.e., casinos) suggest that an estimated 5 percent to 10 percent of adults may experience gambling problems to some degree. JLARC report proposed $4M statewide for problem gambling response
  13. Development choices related to the location and the operator – what decisions they will make and how they partner with the community will determine the spillover benefits Benchmark regions showed mixed impacts on spillovers A casino is not a guaranteed cure for your economic ills.
  14. There are many uncertainties about how successful the casino will be Will you get several million visitors Is a $300M or larger facility sustainable What happens if NC legalizes casinos
  15. Most of the local tax benefit will come from non-gaming revenues VA is the big winner Crime and problem gambling may increase The jobs are good jobs, but still not living This is the biggest bet on Danville’s future We cannot predict what will happen, but we have looked at a range of positive and negative impacts so that you can understand the potential risks and rewards and determine which you think are most significant and most likely. Thank you!