Convective storms in Europe: a look back at CSIP and COPS Dr Andrew Russell Brunel University
Convective storms in Europe:  a look back at CSIP and COPS (That's the UK based Convective Storm Initiation Project (CSIP)...
Why?
- Flooding - Severe weather (e.g. tornados, lightning)
CSIP
CSIP observational campaign was a collaborative project <ul><li>United Kingdom </li></ul><ul><li>Universities of: </li></u...
Thanks to Cyril Morcrette for this slide.
Summary of  CSIP IOPs Primary Initiation Secondary Initiation Intense showers Upper-level forcing Hill Effects Coastal Eff...
Some very quick summaries…
Lean  et al.  (2008) &quot;Characteristics of High-Resolution Versions of the Met Office Unified Model for Forecasting Con...
<ul><li>Morcrette  et al.  (2006) &quot;Secondary initiation of multiple bands of cumulonimbus over southern Britain. I: A...
Morcrette  et al.  (2006) &quot;Secondary initiation of multiple bands of cumulonimbus over southern Britain. I: An observ...
<ul><li>Marsham  et al.  (2007) &quot;Variable cirrus shading during CSIP IOP 5. I: Effects on the initiation of convectio...
Rainfall radar (1200 UTC) Morcrette  et al.  (2007) “Combination of mesoscale and synoptic mechanisms for triggering of an...
12 UTC 1.5km model Normal Orography Without Dartmoor Rain rate (mm/hour) Rain rate (mm/hour) Lean et al. (2009) “The Surpr...
Cloud fraction: normal Orography Cloud fraction: no Dartmoor Cloud fraction Cloud fraction Lean et al. (2009) “The Surpris...
COPS
 
 
“ The Cloud”
Some more very quick summaries…
Kottmeier  et al. (2008) &quot;Mechanisms initiating deep convection over complex terrain during COPS&quot; Meteorol. Z. 1...
COPS Special Issue – QJ, 137 S1
Hauck et al. (2011) &quot;Soil moisture variability and its influence on convective precipitation over complex terrain&quo...
Jones  et al.  (2011) &quot; In situ  aerosol measurements taken during the 2007 COPS field campaign at the Hornisgrinde g...
A focus on lids
<ul><li>(Capping) inversion </li></ul><ul><li>Lid </li></ul><ul><li>Convective inhibition </li></ul><ul><li>Elevated mixed...
 
Why are lids important?
Model of an atmospheric lid
Model of an atmospheric lid
Model of an atmospheric lid
Model of an atmospheric lid
Model of an atmospheric lid
Model of an atmospheric lid
Model of an atmospheric lid
Model of an atmospheric lid
Lids over the USA Graziano and Carlson found an LSI “cut-off value” above which severe convection was rarely observed.  Ho...
Where do lids come from?
<ul><li>Residual layers </li></ul><ul><li>Differential advection (i.e. “Spanish plume”, elevated mixed layer) </li></ul><u...
Potential Vorticity (PV) is proportional to:  Vorticity x Static Stability Very useful as a tracer Upper-level perspective
Vertical cross section through a PV anomaly Tropopause Isentropes Wind contours High Stability Cold pool
Dropsonde view of a PV anomaly Tropopause folds
From Appenzeller and Davies, Nature (1992) PV Streamers
CSIP IOP 1   Russell  et al.  (2008) &quot;Convective inhibition beneath an upper-level PV anomaly&quot;  Q. J. R. Meteoro...
15 June 2005 (IOP 1) Radar rain-rate
15 June 2005 (IOP 1) MSG High-resolution visible
 
100  90  80  70  60  50  40  30  20  10  0 RHI along 310 deg at 1200 UTC
Meteosat WV image at 1200 UTC
MST radar vertical shear and return power
Larkhill radiosondes Profile from 6Z to 16Z theta contours 10% RH contour areas of CAPE
UHF radar Signal to noise ratio
Back trajectories showing the origin of the PV anomaly (  ) and the lid (  )
Breaking Rossby Wave: PV on 315K
PV through 50 º N
Back trajectories showing the origin of the PV anomaly (  ) and the lid (  )
CSIP IOP 9   Russell  et al.  (2009) &quot;Convection forced by a descending dry layer and low-level moist convergence&quo...
Rainfall, CTH, MSG vis and topography
 
GPS Water Vapour - Linkenholt θ w  ( ºC ) and  10% Relative Humidity (RH)  from Radiosondes - Swanage SNR from wind profil...
IOP9: 18 th  July 2005 1645 UTC
LID θw decreases with height… …  instability!
 
 
 
PV plotted around the main anomaly
 
 
How did this PV structure arise?
COPS IOP 7b   What is the real relationship between deep convection and large scale PV anomalies?
 
 
 
 
 
SNR from UHF wind profiler
 
 
PV ,  MSLP  and  Back Trajectories
PV ,  MSLP  and  Back Trajectories
 
What do we do now?
TROSIAD:   TRO popause folds,   S tratospheric  I ntrusions   A nd   D eep convection Climatology Case studies Modelling
<ul><li>How important are lids in determining the  strength of convective storms? </li></ul><ul><li>How important are lids...
 
Conclusions
<ul><li>CSIP – excellent season </li></ul><ul><li>COPS – not so good but more data </li></ul><ul><li>Many case studies </l...
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Convective storms in Europe: a look back at COPS and CSIP

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A seminar given at RMS in London on 16th March on the main results from the Convective Storm Initiation Project (CSIP) and the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS).

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Convective storms in Europe: a look back at COPS and CSIP

  1. 1. Convective storms in Europe: a look back at CSIP and COPS Dr Andrew Russell Brunel University
  2. 2. Convective storms in Europe: a look back at CSIP and COPS (That's the UK based Convective Storm Initiation Project (CSIP) from 2005 and the German based Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS) from 2007) Dr Andrew Russell Brunel University
  3. 3. Why?
  4. 4. - Flooding - Severe weather (e.g. tornados, lightning)
  5. 5. CSIP
  6. 6. CSIP observational campaign was a collaborative project <ul><li>United Kingdom </li></ul><ul><li>Universities of: </li></ul><ul><li>* Reading </li></ul><ul><li>* Leeds </li></ul><ul><li>* Manchester </li></ul><ul><li>* Salford </li></ul><ul><li>* Bath </li></ul><ul><li>The Met Office </li></ul><ul><li>Chilbolton Observatory </li></ul><ul><li>Germany </li></ul><ul><li>Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung (IMK), Karlsruhe </li></ul><ul><li>Universität Braunschweig </li></ul><ul><li>GeoForschungsZentrum, Potsdam </li></ul>Thanks to Cyril Morcrette for this slide.
  7. 7. Thanks to Cyril Morcrette for this slide.
  8. 8. Summary of CSIP IOPs Primary Initiation Secondary Initiation Intense showers Upper-level forcing Hill Effects Coastal Effects Convergence lines Cloud shadowing Multiple lids Main lid height varies Organised showers Thanks to Cyril Morcrette for this slide. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 15 June 19 June 24 June 28 June 29 June 4 July 7 July 13 July 18 July 23 July 24 July 28 July 1 August 11 August 13 August 18 August 19 August 25 August
  9. 9. Some very quick summaries…
  10. 10. Lean et al. (2008) &quot;Characteristics of High-Resolution Versions of the Met Office Unified Model for Forecasting Convection over the UK&quot; Mon. Wea. Rev. , 136 , 3408–3424. 14 UTC 1 st July 2003 T+7 forecast
  11. 11. <ul><li>Morcrette et al. (2006) &quot;Secondary initiation of multiple bands of cumulonimbus over southern Britain. I: An observational case-study&quot; Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 132 , 1021-1051 </li></ul><ul><li>Marsham and Parker (2006) &quot;Secondary initiation of multiple bands of cumulonimbus over southern Britain. II: Dynamics of secondary initiation&quot; Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 132 , 1053-1072 </li></ul>
  12. 12. Morcrette et al. (2006) &quot;Secondary initiation of multiple bands of cumulonimbus over southern Britain. I: An observational case-study&quot; Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. , 132 , 1021-1051 Marsham and Parker (2006) &quot;Secondary initiation of multiple bands of cumulonimbus over southern Britain. II: Dynamics of secondary initiation&quot; Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. , 132 , 1053-1072
  13. 13. <ul><li>Marsham et al. (2007) &quot;Variable cirrus shading during CSIP IOP 5. I: Effects on the initiation of convection&quot; Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 133, 1643–1660. </li></ul><ul><li>Marsham et al. (2007) &quot;Variable cirrus shading during CSIP IOP 5, Part II: Effects on the boundary layer&quot; Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 133, 1661-1675. </li></ul>
  14. 14. Rainfall radar (1200 UTC) Morcrette et al. (2007) “Combination of mesoscale and synoptic mechanisms for triggering of an isolated thunderstorm: a case study of CSIP IOP 1” Mon. Wea. Rev. , 135 , 3728-3749.
  15. 15. 12 UTC 1.5km model Normal Orography Without Dartmoor Rain rate (mm/hour) Rain rate (mm/hour) Lean et al. (2009) “The Surprising Role of Orography in the Initiation of an Isolated Thunderstorm in Southern England Mon. Wea. Rev. 137, 3026-3046.
  16. 16. Cloud fraction: normal Orography Cloud fraction: no Dartmoor Cloud fraction Cloud fraction Lean et al. (2009) “The Surprising Role of Orography in the Initiation of an Isolated Thunderstorm in Southern England Mon. Wea. Rev. 137, 3026-3046.
  17. 17. COPS
  18. 20. “ The Cloud”
  19. 21. Some more very quick summaries…
  20. 22. Kottmeier et al. (2008) &quot;Mechanisms initiating deep convection over complex terrain during COPS&quot; Meteorol. Z. 17, 931-948
  21. 23. COPS Special Issue – QJ, 137 S1
  22. 24. Hauck et al. (2011) &quot;Soil moisture variability and its influence on convective precipitation over complex terrain&quot; Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137, 42–56
  23. 25. Jones et al. (2011) &quot; In situ aerosol measurements taken during the 2007 COPS field campaign at the Hornisgrinde ground site&quot; Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137, 252–266
  24. 26. A focus on lids
  25. 27. <ul><li>(Capping) inversion </li></ul><ul><li>Lid </li></ul><ul><li>Convective inhibition </li></ul><ul><li>Elevated mixed layer </li></ul><ul><li>CIN (and CAPE) </li></ul>Terminology
  26. 29. Why are lids important?
  27. 30. Model of an atmospheric lid
  28. 31. Model of an atmospheric lid
  29. 32. Model of an atmospheric lid
  30. 33. Model of an atmospheric lid
  31. 34. Model of an atmospheric lid
  32. 35. Model of an atmospheric lid
  33. 36. Model of an atmospheric lid
  34. 37. Model of an atmospheric lid
  35. 38. Lids over the USA Graziano and Carlson found an LSI “cut-off value” above which severe convection was rarely observed. However, whilst the probability of deep convection decreases with increasing LSI, they found that when considering a given value of buoyancy the deep convection probability increased with increasing LSI. “ A statistical evaluation of lid strength on deep convection ” Graziano and Carlson (1987) Weather and Forecasting
  36. 39. Where do lids come from?
  37. 40. <ul><li>Residual layers </li></ul><ul><li>Differential advection (i.e. “Spanish plume”, elevated mixed layer) </li></ul><ul><li>Descending layers </li></ul>
  38. 41. Potential Vorticity (PV) is proportional to: Vorticity x Static Stability Very useful as a tracer Upper-level perspective
  39. 42. Vertical cross section through a PV anomaly Tropopause Isentropes Wind contours High Stability Cold pool
  40. 43. Dropsonde view of a PV anomaly Tropopause folds
  41. 44. From Appenzeller and Davies, Nature (1992) PV Streamers
  42. 45. CSIP IOP 1 Russell et al. (2008) &quot;Convective inhibition beneath an upper-level PV anomaly&quot; Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. , 134 , 371-383.
  43. 46. 15 June 2005 (IOP 1) Radar rain-rate
  44. 47. 15 June 2005 (IOP 1) MSG High-resolution visible
  45. 49. 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 RHI along 310 deg at 1200 UTC
  46. 50. Meteosat WV image at 1200 UTC
  47. 51. MST radar vertical shear and return power
  48. 52. Larkhill radiosondes Profile from 6Z to 16Z theta contours 10% RH contour areas of CAPE
  49. 53. UHF radar Signal to noise ratio
  50. 54. Back trajectories showing the origin of the PV anomaly ( ) and the lid ( )
  51. 55. Breaking Rossby Wave: PV on 315K
  52. 56. PV through 50 º N
  53. 57. Back trajectories showing the origin of the PV anomaly ( ) and the lid ( )
  54. 58. CSIP IOP 9 Russell et al. (2009) &quot;Convection forced by a descending dry layer and low-level moist convergence&quot; Tellus A , 61 , 250-263.
  55. 59. Rainfall, CTH, MSG vis and topography
  56. 61. GPS Water Vapour - Linkenholt θ w ( ºC ) and 10% Relative Humidity (RH) from Radiosondes - Swanage SNR from wind profiling radar – Linkenholt (plotted over Swanage sonde data)
  57. 62. IOP9: 18 th July 2005 1645 UTC
  58. 63. LID θw decreases with height… … instability!
  59. 67. PV plotted around the main anomaly
  60. 70. How did this PV structure arise?
  61. 71. COPS IOP 7b What is the real relationship between deep convection and large scale PV anomalies?
  62. 77. SNR from UHF wind profiler
  63. 80. PV , MSLP and Back Trajectories
  64. 81. PV , MSLP and Back Trajectories
  65. 83. What do we do now?
  66. 84. TROSIAD: TRO popause folds, S tratospheric I ntrusions A nd D eep convection Climatology Case studies Modelling
  67. 85. <ul><li>How important are lids in determining the strength of convective storms? </li></ul><ul><li>How important are lids in determining the location of convective storms? </li></ul><ul><li>Is there a level of lid strength over which all convection is inhibited? </li></ul><ul><li>How well do numerical weather prediction (NWP) models represent lids? </li></ul><ul><li>Has the climatological occurrence of lids changed in recent time? </li></ul><ul><li>Where do lids come from? </li></ul>
  68. 87. Conclusions
  69. 88. <ul><li>CSIP – excellent season </li></ul><ul><li>COPS – not so good but more data </li></ul><ul><li>Many case studies </li></ul><ul><li>Many modelling experiments </li></ul><ul><li>Some NWP development papers </li></ul><ul><li>Better understanding of lids in Europe </li></ul><ul><li>Lots of questions remain unanswered </li></ul>

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