Toolkit 6 is stock analysis software that uses a structured 3-step approach: 1) Assess company growth through analyzing historical EPS and sales growth and projecting future EPS, 2) Review company quality by examining margins, ROE, and debt levels, and 3) Determine valuation by analyzing historical and potential future P/E ratios. The software allows users to save stock studies to libraries, create and manage portfolios, and get alerts about portfolio holdings. It includes tools for ongoing portfolio management and upgrades.

1. An Introduction to Toolkit 6
Doug Gerlach - A Structured Approach to Stock Analysis October 2009
A Structured Approach to
Analyzing Company
Fundamentals with Toolkit 6
Presented by Doug Gerlach
President,
President, ICLUBcentral
gerlach@iclub.com
http://www.iclub.com
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About Our Stock Analysis Software
• For investors, not traders
investors,
• Based on premise that companies that increase EPS
will eventually see share prices grow
• Uses fundamental, long-term analysis
long-
• Based on identifying underlying characteristics of
growth and quality
• Provides framework for structured sell decisions
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by Doug Gerlach, gerlach@iclub.com

2. An Introduction to Toolkit 6
Doug Gerlach - A Structured Approach to Stock Analysis October 2009
Program History
• Long legacy of development:
– Version 1.0 released in 1991
– Version 6.0 released in 2008
– Version 6.4 released in 2010
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What’s New in Version 6?
• Streamlined toolbar • Smart data updater alerts you when
• Mini SSG graphs pop up in library & new data is available
Comparison header • Preference to use beginning year, ending
year, or average equity in ROE
• Additional graphing: free cash flow,
• Display & print “preferred procedure”
book value, net income, debt, shares on SSG graph
outstanding, dividends
• Display Quality & Sector in SSG header
• Plot future FY EPS & Sales estimates on • EPS & Sales growth R2 displayed on
graph Page 1
• “Default Judgment” applies conservative • Integrated web links never out of date
values to all judgment items • Read community messages about your
• 25/50/25 zoning now default stock on StockCentral message boards
• Display debt/equity trend in Section 2 • Section 3 “Additional Items” better
• Use 10-year P/E Ratios by default
10- organized
• Additional Low Price Options
• Implied growth rate displayed on EPS
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Growth judgment window
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by Doug Gerlach, gerlach@iclub.com

3. An Introduction to Toolkit 6
Doug Gerlach - A Structured Approach to Stock Analysis October 2009
New for StockCentral Subscribers
• “First Impression” screen when you load a new company
• Complete Roster displayed as portfolio, automatically
downloaded each week into program
• Upload completed studies to StockCentral for peer
review
• Take Stock EPS growth rate estimate displayed on EPS
Growth Judgment window
• Take Stock Quality Rating displayed in SSG page header
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3-Step Approach to Analysis
1. Assess Company Growth
– Strength & consistency of past EPS growth
– Determine likely future EPS growth
2. Review Company Quality
– Stability of margins, ROE, debt
3. Determine Valuation
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by Doug Gerlach, gerlach@iclub.com

4. An Introduction to Toolkit 6
Doug Gerlach - A Structured Approach to Stock Analysis October 2009
1. Assess Growth
• Focus on operating earnings (eliminate non-
non-
recurring events).
• Is historical growth of EPS & Sales consistent?
– Review R2 at bottom of Stock Study.
• Is historical growth strong enough for size of
company?
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Project Future EPS
• What is likely future EPS growth for company?
• Incorporate external information with your
own judgment:
– Long-
Long-term analyst estimates
– Near-
Near-term analyst estimates
– Implied (sustainable) growth rate
– Company guidance
– Other research
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by Doug Gerlach, gerlach@iclub.com

5. An Introduction to Toolkit 6
Doug Gerlach - A Structured Approach to Stock Analysis October 2009
Refine Your EPS Estimate
• Construct Revenue-Based EPS Model
Revenue-
(streamlined analyst technique).
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2. Review Company Quality
• Review Trend and Average of:
– Pre-Tax Profit Margins
Pre-
– Return on Equity
– Debt to Equity
• Compare to Industry Averages & Peers.
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by Doug Gerlach, gerlach@iclub.com

6. An Introduction to Toolkit 6
Doug Gerlach - A Structured Approach to Stock Analysis October 2009
3. Determine Valuation
• Review Historical P/E Ratios & Yield.
• Determine likely ranges of P/E Ratios
in future, given assumed company
growth rate.
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Analyze Reward & Risk
• Not enough to buy a good company, must
buy at right price.
• Is there enough reward compared to risk if
purchased at current price?
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by Doug Gerlach, gerlach@iclub.com

7. An Introduction to Toolkit 6
Doug Gerlach - A Structured Approach to Stock Analysis October 2009
Total Return Analysis
• Does Projected Total Return (from
dividends, price appreciation, P/E
expansion) meet your objectives?
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Library & Portfolio
• Save stock studies to library
• Export stock study in *.SSG format to share
with other users
• Create & manage multiple portfolios
• Create & manage multiple libraries
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by Doug Gerlach, gerlach@iclub.com

8. An Introduction to Toolkit 6
Doug Gerlach - A Structured Approach to Stock Analysis October 2009
Manage Your Portfolios
• Portfolio Report Card provides:
– Overview of fundamentals of current
holdings.
– Access to deeper evaluation.
– Eliminates need for old-fashioned &
old-
complicated paper forms.
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Portfolio Overview
• Metrics on state of holdings.
• Overview of key metrics for each stock.
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by Doug Gerlach, gerlach@iclub.com

9. An Introduction to Toolkit 6
Doug Gerlach - A Structured Approach to Stock Analysis October 2009
Portfolio Alerts
• Knowing when to sell:
– Defense: Get early warning signals if
Defense:
conditions change for the worse.
– Offense: Sell holdings with limited upside
Offense:
potential.
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Challenge Existing Holdings
• Don’t merely sell – replace holdings with
prospects that offer higher quality/better
returns.
• Consistently strive to upgrade your
portfolio.
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by Doug Gerlach, gerlach@iclub.com

10. An Introduction to Toolkit 6
Doug Gerlach - A Structured Approach to Stock Analysis October 2009
Portfolio Reports
• Provide more information.
• Are current holdings indicated as potential
buys?
• Are fundamentals deteriorating?
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Additional Features
• Quarterly trend analysis.
• Graph additional items.
• Compare stocks.
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by Doug Gerlach, gerlach@iclub.com

11. An Introduction to Toolkit 6
Doug Gerlach - A Structured Approach to Stock Analysis October 2009
Data Sources
• Can enter historical data by hand.
• Or subscribe to data feed:
– BetterInvesting/S&P
– StockCentral.com/Morningstar
– AAII/Reuters (CD-ROM only)
(CD-
– Value Line (CD-ROM only)
(CD-
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For More Information
• Download a free 30-day demo at
30-
http://www.iclub.com/tk6/
• Call 1-877-33-ICLUB
1-877-33-
• Buy at today’s event and save off full
retail price!
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by Doug Gerlach, gerlach@iclub.com

12. An Introduction to Toolkit 6
Doug Gerlach - A Structured Approach to Stock Analysis October 2009
Learn why
Toolkit is the
world’s most
popular software
for fundamental
analysis of
stocks!
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by Doug Gerlach, gerlach@iclub.com