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The continuing resolution fiscal alchemy in action

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Ed Dolan
Ed Dolan

A set of slides discussing the recent continuing budget resolution passed by the US Congress, as an illustration of the way in which fiscal policy resembles alchemy, in contrast to the more scientific approach of monetary policy.

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Free Slides from Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog http://dolanecon.blogspot.com/ The Continuing Resolution: Fiscal Alchemy in Action? Post prepared October 5 , 2010 Terms of Use: These slides are made available under Creative Commons License Attribution—Share Alike 3.0 . You are free to use these slides as a resource for your economics classes together with whatever textbook you are using. If you like the slides, you may also want to take a look at my textbook, Introduction to Economics , from BVT Publishers.
Congress Passes a Continuing Resolution ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Post P101005 from Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog http://dolanecon.blogspot.com/ US Congress Appropriations Committee in Session, March 2008 Photo source: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:FEMA_-_34403_-_FEMA_Administrator_at_Appropriations_Committee_Hearing_in_District_of_Columbia.jpg
What is a Continuing Resolution? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Post P101005 from Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog http://dolanecon.blogspot.com/ ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Alchemy as the Precursor of Science ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The Alchemist, by William Fettes Douglas. Photo source: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:William_Fettes_Douglas_-_The_Alchemist.jpg Post P101005 from Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog http://dolanecon.blogspot.com/
Monetary Science vs. Fiscal Alchemy* ,[object Object],“ Monetary policy decisions tend to be based on systematic analysis of alternative policy choices and their associated macroeconomic impacts: this is science. Fiscal policy choices, in contrast, spring from unsystematic speculation, grounded more in politics than economics: this is alchemy.” — Eric M. Leeper, Indiana University * “Monetary Science vs. Fiscal Alchemy,” Federal Reserve Jackson Hole Symposium, 2010 http://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/sympos/2010/2010-08-16-leeper-paper.pdf Post P101005 from Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog http://dolanecon.blogspot.com/ Picture source: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Alembic.png
Evidence of Fiscal Alchemy: Continuing Resolutions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Post P101005 from Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog http://dolanecon.blogspot.com/
Evidence of Fiscal Alchemy: Budget Projections ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Post P101005 from Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog http://dolanecon.blogspot.com/ Source:: Leeper, 2010, Figure 8
Evidence of Fiscal Alchemy: Budget Projections ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Post P101005 from Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog http://dolanecon.blogspot.com/ Source:: Leeper, 2010, Figure 8
Contrast: Monetary Policy Aims for Stable Expectations ,[object Object],[object Object],“ The Committee [the FOMC] will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.” From a Fed press release Sept 21, 2010 Post P101005 from Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog http://dolanecon.blogspot.com/
A Rare Fed Comment on Fiscal Policy ,[object Object],History makes clear that countries that continually spend beyond their means suffer slower growth in living standards . . . One way or the other, fiscal adjustments will certainly occur. The only real question is whether they will take place through a careful and deliberative process that weighs priorities and gives people plenty of time to adjust or whether they will be a rapid and painful response to a fiscal crisis. — Ben Bernanke October 4, 2010 Post P101005 from Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog http://dolanecon.blogspot.com/ “ Fiscal Policy and Fiscal Rules,” Remarks in Providence, RI, Oct 4, 2010. Version above is slightly paraphrased to save space. Full text is available at http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20101004a.pdf Photo source: Federal Reserve via http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ben_Bernanke_official_portrait.jpg
The Bottom Line ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Post P101005 from Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog http://dolanecon.blogspot.com/

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The continuing resolution fiscal alchemy in action

  • 1. Free Slides from Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog http://dolanecon.blogspot.com/ The Continuing Resolution: Fiscal Alchemy in Action? Post prepared October 5 , 2010 Terms of Use: These slides are made available under Creative Commons License Attribution—Share Alike 3.0 . You are free to use these slides as a resource for your economics classes together with whatever textbook you are using. If you like the slides, you may also want to take a look at my textbook, Introduction to Economics , from BVT Publishers.
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