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Free Slides from Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog http://dolanecon.blogspot.com/ The Breakup of the Ruble Area (1991-1993): Lessons for the Euro  Post prepared  July 3, 2010 Terms of Use:  These slides are made available under Creative Commons License  Attribution—Share Alike 3.0  . You are free to use these slides as a resource for your economics classes together with whatever textbook you are using. If you like the slides, you may also want to take a look at my textbook,  Introduction to Economics ,  from BVT Publishers.
Could the Euro Area Break Up? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Post P100703 from Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog  http://dolanecon.blogspot.com/
Collapse of the Soviet Union and Emergence of the Ruble Area ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Post P100703 from Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog  http://dolanecon.blogspot.com/ *The Baltic countries, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania,  had declared independence earlier, in the summer of 1991
Inflation in the Ruble Area ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Post P100703 from Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog  http://dolanecon.blogspot.com/
Problem 1: The Legacy of  Perestroika ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Post P100703 from Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog  http://dolanecon.blogspot.com/
Problem 2: Monetization of Budget Deficits  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Post P100703 from Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog  http://dolanecon.blogspot.com/
Problem 3: Design Flaws and Free Riders ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Post P100703 from Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog  http://dolanecon.blogspot.com/ This chart shows that Ukraine was especially active in creating ruble area money in 1992. After  mid-1993, opportunities to play the free rider largely disappeared
To stay or to leave? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Post P100703 from Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog  http://dolanecon.blogspot.com/ ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],As of mid-1992, the pros and cons of staying in the ruble area looked like this . . .
The Demise of the Ruble Area ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Post P100703 from Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog  http://dolanecon.blogspot.com/
Ruble vs. Euro: Monetary Free Riders and Safeguards ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Post P100703 from Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog  http://dolanecon.blogspot.com/ ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Fiscal Fee Riders and Safeguards in the Euro Area ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Post P100703 from Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog  http://dolanecon.blogspot.com/ ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Why Some Countries Might Want to Leave the Euro ,[object Object],Post P100703 from Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog  http://dolanecon.blogspot.com/
Why Weak Economies Would Find it Hard to Leave the Euro ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Post P100703 from Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog  http://dolanecon.blogspot.com/ For a good short discussion of the exit problem, see Barry Eichengreen, “The Euro: Love it or Leave it?” http://voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/729
Why Strong Economies Found it Easy to Leave the Ruble ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Post P100703 from Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog  http://dolanecon.blogspot.com/
Lessons for the Euro from the Ruble Experience ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Post P100703 from Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog  http://dolanecon.blogspot.com/ ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],A hypothetical scenario for breakup of the euro area : A coalition of high-debt countries captures control of the ECB. They try using inflation to ease their debt burdens and stimulate their economies. At that point, strong, low-inflation economies like Germany could be tempted to leave the euro and could do so without risk of default, inflation, or bank runs.

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Breakup of ruble area lessons for euro

  • 1. Free Slides from Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog http://dolanecon.blogspot.com/ The Breakup of the Ruble Area (1991-1993): Lessons for the Euro Post prepared July 3, 2010 Terms of Use: These slides are made available under Creative Commons License Attribution—Share Alike 3.0 . You are free to use these slides as a resource for your economics classes together with whatever textbook you are using. If you like the slides, you may also want to take a look at my textbook, Introduction to Economics , from BVT Publishers.
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