Startup Metrics for Pirates AARRR
AARRR !! KAUST Nov 2013 Dave McClure @DaveMcClure http://500.co http://500hats.com http://slideshare.net/dmc500hats

Dave McClure Founding Partner &
Troublemaker, 500 Startups 00’s & 10’s: • VC: Founders Fund, Facebook fbFund, 500 Startups • Angel: Mashery, Mint.com, SlideShare, Twilio • Marketing: PayPal, Simply Hired, Mint.com, O’Reilly 80’s & 90’s: • Entrepreneur: Aslan Computing (acq’d by Servinet/Panurgy) • Developer: Windows / SQL DB consultant (Intel, MSFT) • Engineer: Johns Hopkins‘88, BS Eng / Applied Math

500 Startups Global Seed Fund
& Startup Accelerator • What is 500? – – – – – • $80M under management 30+ people / 10 investing partners Locations: SV, NYC, MEX, BRZ, IND, CHN, SE Asia 1000+ Founders / 200+ Mentors 25+ positive exits in ~3 years 500+ Portfolio Co’s / 40+ Countries – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – Wildfire (acq GOOG, $350M) MakerBot (acq SSYS, $400M) Viki (acq Rakuten, $200M) Twilio SendGrid Credit Karma VivaReal Udemy Zozi The RealReal Virool Visually Gengo PicCollage 9GAG

500 Startups: Global Seed Fund
Over 150+ startups outside US, in 40+ countries

[ This Talk ]

Topics • • • •
• Basic Concepts of “Startup Metrics 4 Pirates” 3 Steps to AARRR: Product, Market, Revenue Constructing MVP: Just ONE Feature? Design (UX) & Distribution (MKTG) Winning = Market, Revenue, Profit?

Key Concepts • • •
• • MVP = F(Customer, Problem, Time or $$$) PMF = F(Customer, Solution, Alternatives) AUX = F(Customer, Design/UX, Metrics) ACQ = F(Customer, Campaign, Vol, Cost, Conv) WIN! = F(Customer, Usage, Dist, Revenue)

DO Marketing! (It’s Not Evil)
• • • • • Marketing is Both Qualitative + Quantitative Qualitative: Create Emotion, Drive Action Quantitative: Measure Results of Action Design (UX) & Distribution (MKTG) Matter Volume (#), Cost ($), Conversion (%)

Changes in Tech Startups •
LESS Capital required to build product, get to market – Dramatically reduced $$$ on servers, software, bandwidth – Crowdfunding, KickStarter, Angel List, Funders Club, etc – Cheap access to online platforms for 100M+ consumers, smallbiz, etc • MORE Customers via ONLINE platforms (100M+ users) – – – – – – • Search (Google) Social (Facebook, Twitter) Mobile (Apple, Android) Local (Yelp, Groupon, FourSquare) Media (YouTube, Pinterest, Instagram, Tumblr) Comm (Email, IM/Chat, Voice, SMS, etc) LOTS of little bets: Accelerators, Angels, Angel List, Small Exits – Y Combinator, TechStars, 500 Startups – Funding + Co-working + Mentoring -> Design, Data, Distribution – “Fast, Cheap Fail”, network effects, quantitative + iterative investments

Lean Startup: Simpler, Faster, Cheaper,
Smarter 1. Startup Costs = Lower. 2. # Users, Bandwidth = Bigger. 3. Transaction $$$ = Better.  Building Product => Cheaper, Faster, Better  Getting Customers => Easier, More Measurable Iterative Product & Marketing Decisions based on Measured User Behavior

Industry Changes • • •
• • • Startup Efficiency, Reduced Capital Costs Growing Market, Growing Platforms VC Industry Upheavals (2000, 2008) Super Angel -> Micro VC: Seed Funds (ex: First Round) Incubators & Accelerators (ex: Y Combinator) Big VC (ex: A16Z) & Platforms (ex: Angel List) more info see: http://PreMoney.co

Before & After 2 Dot-Com
Crashes Daft Punk Startup: Simpler, Faster, Cheaper, Smarter Before 2000 •Sun Servers •Oracle DB •Exodus Hosting •12-24mo dev cycle •6-18mo sales cycle •<100M people online •$1-2M seed round •$3-5M Series A •Sand Hill Road crawl •Big, Fat, Dinosaur Startup After 2008 •AWS, Google, PayPal, FB, TW •Cloud + Open Source SW •Lean Startup / Startup Wknd •3-90d dev cycle •SaaS / online sales •>3B people online •<$100K incub + <$1M seed •$1-3M Series A •Angel List global visibility •Lean, Little, Cockroach Startup

Series A Crunch: Good or
Bad? Series A rqmts: $1M revenue, 1M active users, 10M downloads, 100% YoY growth •Lots of Incubation / Seed startups will “fail” •BUT: Fail Budget = $50-$500K, not $5M+ •Many “failed” startups = ramen-profitable, small acquisition, or MBA alternative (<$100K) •Series A/B VCs have lots to choose from •Overall, founders / market getting smarter •More focus on customers, problems, revenue •Many die, some survive (1-5x), a few thrive (20x+).

Silicon Valley 2.0: Lots of
Little Bets aka “MoneyBall for Startups” • • VC Evolution: Physician, Scale Thyself (Aug 2012) MoneyBall for Startups, 500 Startups Investment Thesis (Jul 2010)

500 Strategy: “Lots of Little
Bets”* 1) Make lots of little bets pre-traction, early-stage startups 2) after 6-12 months, identify top 20% performers and double-down higher $$$ 3) conservative model assumes -5-10% large exits @20X ($50-100M+) -10-20% small exits @5X ($5-50M) 15 *See Peter Sims book: “Little Bets”

[The Lean Startup] [Startup Metrics
4 Pirates]

Just Gimme the GOOD Metrics.
Users, Pages, Clicks, Emails, $$$...? Q: Which of these is best? How do you know? • 1,000,000 one-time, unregistered unique visitors the good stuff. • 500,000 visitors who view 2+ pages / stay 10+ sec • 200,000 visitors who clicked on a link or button • 20,000 registered users w/ email address • 2,000 passionate fans who refer 5+ users / mo. • 1,000 monthly subscribers @ $5/mo

The Lean Startup • •
• • • • Talk to Customers; Discover Problems Progress ≠ Features (Less = More) Fast, Frequent Iteration (+ Feedback Loop) Measure Conversion; Compare 2+ Options Focus on Product/Market Fit Keep it Simple & Actionable

Discover Customers
(Steve Blank, SteveBlank.com)

Iterate. (Eric Ries, StartupLessonsLearned.com) IDEAS
LEARN BUILD DATA CODE MEASURE

AARRR!: Startup Metrics Model SEM
SEM Social Social Networks Networks SEO SEO Blogs Blogs Apps && Apps Widgets Widgets PR PR Campaigns, Campaigns, Contests Contests Affiliates Affiliates Email Email Domains Domains ACQUISITION ACQUISITION Biz Biz Dev Dev Direct, Direct, Tel, TV Tel, TV Emails & Alerts Emails & Alerts Blogs, RSS, Blogs, RSS, News Feeds News Feeds R n ntio et e Biz Dev Biz Dev $$ $$$ nue $ enue Reve Rev System Events & System Events & Time-based Features Time-based Features Ads, Lead Gen, Ads, Lead Gen, Subscriptions, Subscriptions, ECommerce ECommerce Website.com

Startup Metrics for Pirates •
• • • • Acquisition: users come to site from various channels Activation: users enjoy 1st visit: "happy” experience Retention: users come back, visit site multiple times Referral: users like product enough to refer others Revenue: users conduct some monetization behavior AARRR!! AARRR (note: If you’re in a hurry, Google “Startup Metrics” & watch 5m video)

One Step at a Time.
1. Make a Good Product: Activation & Retention 2. Market the Product: Acquisition & Referral 3. Make Money: Revenue & Profitability

Startup Challenges Startups have problems
in 3 key areas: • Management: Set Priorities, Define Key Metrics • Product: Build “Right” Features. Measure, Iterate. • Marketing: Distribution, Distribution, Distribution. (Search, Social, Mobile)

[ Constructing MVP ]

Role: Founder / CEO Q:
Which Customers? Problems? Metrics? A: Focus on Critical Few Actionable Metrics (

Optimize 4 Happiness (both User
+ Business) • • • • • $$$ Define States of User + Business Value Prioritize (Estimate) Relative Value of Each State Move Users: Lower Value -> Higher Value Optimize for User Happiness + Business $$$ Achieve High Cust Value + Low ACQ$ @ Scale

What is Minimum Viable Product
? MVP = F(Customer, Problem, Time or $$$) • Focus on CUSTOMER – Qualitative Discovery, Quantitative Validation • Get to know habits, problems, desires (FUN MATTERS) – what causes pain? what causes pleasure? • Ship the simplest, fastest solution that solves the problem. • Define 1-5 TESTABLE Conversion Metrics of Value – – - Attention/Usage (session time, clicks) Customer Profle Data (email, connect, profile) Revenue (direct or indirect) Retention (visits over time, cohort behavior) Referral (users evangelize to other users)

Example Conversion Metrics (note: *not*
actuals… your mileage may vary) Stage Conversion Status Conv. % Est. Value (*not* cost) Acquisition Visitors -> Site/Widget/Landing Page (2+ pages, 10+ sec, 1+ clicks = don’t abandon) 60% $.05 Activation “Happy” 1st Visit; Usage/Signup (clicks/time/pages, email/profile reg, feature usage) 15% $.25 Retention Users Come Back; Multiple Visits (1-3x visits/mo; email/feed open rate / CTR) 5% $1 Referral Users Refer Others (cust sat >=8; viral K factor > 1; ) 1% $5 Revenue Users Pay / Generate $$$ (first txn, break-even, target profitability) 2% $50

[ Getting 2 PMF ]

Role: Product / Eng /
Design Q: What Features to Build? Why? When are you “Done”? A: Easy-to-Find, Fun/Useful, Unique Features that Increase Conversion (stop iterating when increase decelerates) • • • Wireframes = Conversion Steps Measure, A/B Test, Iterate FAST (daily/weekly) Optimize for Conversion Improvement – 80% on existing feature optimization – 20% on new feature development

What is Product/Market Fit ?
PMF = F(Customer, Solution, Alternatives*) • Product / Market Fit occurs when: – Customers like your stuff better than other options – Not static, Not optimal – just Local Max F(customers, solution, time) – make sure you’re moving in optimal direction 2 local max • Q: what competitive solutions are available? – … that your customers know about? – how are you diff/same? – in ways that people care about? (will pay for)

[ Testing 4 AUX ]

Discover Meaning Why Should Users
CARE About Your Product? Kathy Sierra: “Creating Passionate Users”

Discover Meaning Keywords, Images, Call-to-Action
Top 10 - 100 words • Your Brand / Products • Customer Needs / Benefits • Competitor’s Brand / Products • Semantic Equivalents • Misspellings Call-to-Action • Words • Images • Context • Button/Link • Emotion Relevant images • People • Products • Problems • Solutions Result • Positive? • Negative? • Neutral (= Death) • A/B test & Iterate

How To Tell if Design/UX
is Good? AUX = F(Customer, Design/UX, Metrics) • If Users Use Your Product Then It’s GOOD. – – – – Define Metrics, Measurability for Design / UX Focus on Psychology of User Relative to Competitive Alternatives (that your customers know about) Keep Testing 4 Awesomeness • RAMP Mktg & $$$ AFTER it’s clear your MVP is: – Functional = useful for >1 customers – Differentiated = better than other stuff availabile – Awesome (see above)

[ Metrics 4 ACQ ]

Role: Marketing / Sales Q:
What channels? Which users? Why? A: High Volume (#), Low Cost ($), High Conv (%) • • • • • Design & Test Multiple Marketing Channels + Campaigns Select & Focus on Best-Performing Channels & Themes Optimize for conversion to target CTAs, not just site/landing page Match/Drive channel cost to/below revenue potential Low-Hanging Fruit: – Blogs – SEO/SEM – Landing Pages – Automated Emails

Platforms 2.0 Search, Social, Mobile,
Video, Messaging

Distribution Platforms Customer Reach: 100M-1B+
• Search: Google, Baidu, Yahoo/Bing, Yandex • Social: Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, TenCent/QQ, WeChat • Mobile: Apple (iOS), Android • Media: Video (YouTube), Photos (Instagram, Pinterest), Blogs • Comm: SMS, IM (WeChat, WhatsApp), Skype, Phone/Voice, etc

MAARRRketing Plan ACQ = F(Customer,
Campaign, Vol, Cost, Conv) Marketing Plan = Target Customer Acquisition Channels • 3 Important Factors = Volume (#), Cost ($), Conversion (%) • Measure conversion to target customer actions • Test audience segments, campaign themes, Call-To-Action (CTAs) [Gradually] Match Channel Costs => Revenue Potential • Increase Vol. & Conversion, Decrease Cost, Optimize for Revenue Potential • Avg Txn Value (ATV), Ann Rev Per User (ARPU), Cust Lifetime Value (CLV) • Design channels that (eventually) cost <20-50% of target ATV, ARPU, CLV Consider Costs, Scarce Resource Tradeoffs • Actual $ expenses • Marketing time & resources • Product/Engineering time & resources • Cashflow timing of expense vs. revenue, profit

[ What is WINNING? ]

Choose #WINNING Metrics WIN =
F(Customer, Usage, Dist, Revenue) • after MVP functional use, several options: – better Usage – Activation & Retention (AUX) – more Users -- Distribution / Acquisition – more Money --- Monetization • understand ACQ$ vs REV$, optimize 4 short-term – higher volume usually a priority – costs may change as volume increases

[ The Lean Investor ]

Startup 2.0: “Lean Investor” Model
Method: Invest in startups using incremental investment, iterative development. Start with lots of small experiments, filter out failure, and expand investment upon success. • Incubator: $0-100K (“Product Viability”) • Seed: $100K-$2M (“Expand Distribution”) • Venture: $1M-$10M (“Maximize Revenue”)

Investment #1: Incubate • Structure
(“Product”) – 1-3 founders – $0-$100K investment – Incubator environment: multiple peers, mentors/advisors • Build Functional Prototype / “Minimum Viable Product” (MVP): – – – – Concept->Alpha, ~3-6 months Develop Minimal Critical Feature Set => Get to “It Works” Instrument Basic Dashboard, Conversion Metrics Test Cust. Adoption (10-1000 users) / Cust. Satisfaction (Scale: 1-10) • Demonstrate Concept, Reduce Product Risk, Test Functional Use • Develop Metrics & Filter for Follow-on Investment

Investment #2: Seed • Structure
(“Market”) – 2-5 person team – $100K-$2M investment – Syndicate of Angel Investors / Small VC Funds • Improve Product, Expand Market, Test Revenue: – – – – Alpha->Beta, ~6-12 months Customer Sat ≥ 6 => Get to “Doesn’t Suck” Setup A/B Testing Framework, Optimize Conversion Test Marketing Campaigns, Cust Acqstn Channels • Prove Solution/Benefit, Assess Market Size • Test Channel Cost, Revenue Opportunity • Determine Org Structure, Key Hires

Investment #3: Venture • Structure
(“Revenue”) – 5-25 person team – $1M-$10M investment – VC Investors • Make Money, Get to Sustainability: – – – – – Beta->Production, 12-18 months Customer Sat ≥ 8 => “It Rocks, I’ll Tell My Friends” MktgPlan => Predictable Channels / Campaigns + Budget Scalability & Infrastructure, Customer Service & Operations Connect with Distribution Partners • Prove/Expand Market, Operationalize Business • Future Milestones: Profitable/Sustainable, Exit Options

Appendix

Links & Resources Additional References:
• Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion Robert Cialdini (book) • The Mating Mind Geoffrey Miller (book) • Putting the Fun in Functional Amy Jo Kim (etech 2006 preso) • Futuristic Play Andrew Chen (blog) • Don’t Make Me Think Steve Krug (book) • Designing for the Social Web Joshua Porter (book, website) • Startup Lessons Learned Eric Ries (blog) • Customer Development Methodology Steve Blank (presentation, blog) • Startup-Marketing.com Sean Ellis (blog) • Understanding Comics Scott McCloud (book)