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@DaveMcClure 
@500Startups http://500.co 
Startup Istanbul - Sept 2014 
Changes in Venture Capital + 
Building Startup Ecosystems
This Talk… 
• Changes in Tech + VC 
• “Lean VC” = Quantitative Venture Capital 
• Building Startup Ecosystems 
• Global Entrepreneurship 
• Q & A
Dave McClure 
Founding Partner & Chief Troublemaker, 500 Startups 
00’s & 10’s: 
• VC: Founders Fund, Facebook fbFund, 500 Startups 
• Angel: Mashery, Mint.com, SlideShare, Twilio, Wildfire, SendGrid 
• Marketing: PayPal, Simply Hired, Mint.com, O’Reilly 
! 
! 
80’s & 90’s: 
• Entrepreneur: Aslan Computing (acq’d by Servinet/Panurgy) 
• Developer: Windows / SQL DB consultant (Intel, MSFT) 
• Engineer: Johns Hopkins‘88, BS Eng / Applied Math
500 Startups 
Global Seed Fund & Startup Accelerator 
• What is 500? 
– $115M silicon valley VC fund + startup accelerator 
– 35+ people / 12 investing partners 
– Locations: SV/SF, MEX, BRZ, IND, CHN/TWN, SE Asia 
– 2000+ Founders / 200+ Mentors 
– Community + Content + Conferences 
! 
• 850+ Portfolio Co’s / 40+ Countries 
– Wildfire (acq GOOG, $350M) 
– MakerBot (acq SSYS, $400M) 
– Viki (acq Rakuten, $200M) 
– Simple (acq BBVA, $117M) 
– Twilio 
– SendGrid 
– Credit Karma 
– Udemy 
– Barkbox 
– HomeJoy
500 Startups: Global Seed Fund 
Over 250+ startups outside US, in 40+ countries
This Talk… 
• Changes in Tech + VC 
• “Lean VC” = Quantitative Venture Capital 
• Building Startup Ecosystems 
• Global Entrepreneurship 
• Q & A
Industry Changes 
• Financial Market Crises (2000, 2008) 
• Startup Efficiency, Lean Startup Movement, Reduced Capital Costs 
• Growing Market, Global Distribution Platforms, Growth Hacking 
• Improved Monetization, Developing Payments Infrastructure 
• Developing Startup Ecosystems, Global M&A 
! 
• Micro VC: Seed Funds (ex: First Round Capital) 
• Incubators & Accelerators (ex: Y Combinator, TechStars, 500) 
• Funding Platforms (ex: Angel List, Kickstarter) 
• Growing Global Market of Angel Investors 
! 
more info: http://PreMoney.co (June 27th, San Francisco)
Changes in Tech Startups 
• LESS Capital required to build product, get to market 
– Dramatically reduced cost for servers, software, bandwidth 
– Funding Platforms: KickStarter, Angel List, Funders Club, etc 
– Access to online platforms for 100M-1B+ consumers, smallbiz, etc 
! 
• MORE Customers via ONLINE platforms (100M+ users) 
– Search (Google) 
– Social (Facebook, Twitter) 
– Mobile (Apple, Android) 
– Media (YouTube, Pinterest, Instagram, Tumblr) 
– Comm (Email, WeChat/WhatsApp/Line/Kakao, Voice, SMS, etc) 
! 
• LOTS of little bets: Accelerators, Angels, Angel List, Small Exits 
– Y Combinator, 500 Startups 
– Capital + Co-working + Mentoring -> Design, Data, Distribution 
– “Fast, Cheap Fail”, network effects, quantitative + iterative investments
Before & After 2 Dot-Com Crashes 
Daft Punk Startup: Simpler, Faster, Cheaper, Smarter 
Before 2000 
• Sun Servers 
• Oracle DB 
• Exodus Hosting 
• 12-24mo dev cycle 
• 6-18mo sales cycle 
• <100M people online 
• $1-2M seed round 
• $3-5M Series A 
• Sand Hill Road crawl 
• Big, Fat, Dinosaur Startup 
After 2008 
• AWS, Google, PayPal, FB, TW 
• Cloud + Open Source SW 
• Lean Startup / Startup Wknd 
• 3-90d dev cycle 
• SaaS / online sales 
• >3B people online 
• <$100K incub + <$1M seed 
• $1-3M Series A 
• Angel List global visibility 
• Lean, Little, Cockroach Startup
Platforms 2.0 
Search, Social, Mobile, 
Video, Messaging
Angel List: 
Platform for Investors + Startups 
• Startups + Metrics 
• Founders + Bios 
• Investors + Syndicates 
• Accelerators + Online Applications 
• Jobs + Talent 
11
This Talk… 
• Changes in Tech + VC 
• “Lean VC” = Quantitative Venture Capital 
• Building Startup Ecosystems 
• Global Entrepreneurship 
• Q & A
Silicon Valley 2.0: 
Lots of Little Bets 
aka “MoneyBall for Startups” 
• VC Evolution: Physician, Scale Thyself (Aug 2012) 
• MoneyBall for Startups, 500 Startups Investment Thesis (Jul 2010)
500 Strategy: “Lots of Little Bets” 
14
The Lean VC: 
Lots of Little Bets, Incremental Investment 
Method: Make little bets in lots of startups using 
incremental investment, iterative development. 
Start with many small experiments, filter out failures, 
and expand investment in successes. 
! 
• Incubator: $0-100K (“Build & Validate Product”) 
• Seed: $100K-$1M (“Test & Grow Marketing Channels””) 
• Venture: $1M-$10M (“Maximize Growth & Revenue”)
Investment Stage #1: 
Product Validation + Customer Usage 
• Structure 
– 1-3 founders 
– $25-$100K investment 
– Incubator environment: multiple peers, mentors/advisors 
! 
• Test Functional Prototype / “Minimum Viable Product” (MVP): 
– Prototype->Alpha, ~3-6 months 
– Develop Minimal Critical Feature Set => Get to “It Works! Someone Uses It.” 
– Improve Design & Usability, Setup Conversion Metrics 
– Test Small-Scale Customer Adoption (10-1000 users) 
! 
• Demonstrate Concept, Reduce Product Risk, Test Functional Use 
• Develop Metrics & Filter for Possible Future Investment
Investment Stage #2: 
Market Validation + Revenue Testing 
• Structure 
– 2-10 person team 
– $100K-$1M investment 
– Syndicate of Angel Investors / Small VC Funds 
! 
• Improve Product, Expand Customers, Test Revenue: 
– Alpha->Beta, ~6-12 months 
– Scale Customer Adoption => “Many People Use It, & They Pay.” 
– Test Marketing Campaigns, Customer Acquisition Channels + Cost 
– Test Revenue Generation, Find Profitable Customer Segments 
! 
• Prove Solution/Benefit, Assess Market Size 
• Test Channel Cost, Revenue Opportunity 
• Determine Org Structure, Key Hires
Investment Stage #3: 
Revenue Validation + Growth 
• Structure 
– 5-25 person team 
– $1M-$10M investment 
– Seed & Venture Investors 
! 
• Make Money (or Go Big), Get to Sustainability: 
– Beta->Production, 12-24 months 
– Revenue / Growth => “We Can Make (a lot of) Money!” 
– Mktg Plan => Predictable Channels / Campaigns + Budget 
– Scalability & Infrastructure, Customer Service & Operations 
– Connect with Distribution Partners, Expand Growth 
! 
• Prove/Expand Market, Operationalize Business 
• Future Milestones: Profitable/Sustainable, Exit Options
This Talk… 
• Changes in Tech + VC 
• “Lean VC” = Quantitative Venture Capital 
• Building Startup Ecosystems 
• Global Entrepreneurship 
• Q & A
Critical Ecosystem Factors 
• Optimism & Belief (“Silicon Valley”) 
• Mentorship + Education (Knowledge) 
• Universities + Companies (People) 
• Capital, Legal, Finance (Infrastructure) 
• Engineering + Design / UX (Product) 
• Platforms + Distribution (Customers) 
• Online Payments (Monetization) 
• IPO / M&A Market (Exits) 
20
Startup Investor Ecosystem 
!! 
Y-Combinator 
TechStars 
Angels & 
Incubators 
($0-10M) 
! 
“Micro-VC” Funds 
($10-100M) 
Floodgate (Maples) 
First Round True 
“Big” VC Funds 
($100-500M) 
Union Square 
Foundry 
Atomico A16Z 
“Mega” VC Funds 
(>$500M) 
SoftTech (Clavier) 
Felicis (Senkut) 
SV Angel (Conway) 
Greylock Sequoia 
Incubation 
Seed 
Series A 
Series B 
Series C+ 
Bootstrap, KickStarter, 
AngelList, Crowdfunding
Example Startup Ecosystem 
• 1,000 Bootstrap Startups ($0-10K) 
• 300 Accelerator Startups ($10-100K) 
• 100 Seed-Stage Startups ($100K-$1M) 
• 30 Series A/B Startups ($1-10M) 
• 10 Later-Stage Companies ($10-100M) 
• 1-3 Mature Company IPOs ($100M+) 
22
Entrepreneur Education 
• Business Plans 
• Functional Prototypes 
• Lean Startup 
• Software Engineering / Design & UX 
• Online Marketing / Unit Economics 
• Monetization & Payments 
• Customer Service + Support 
• Fundraising & Pitch 
23
Investor Education 
• Startups are NOT Real Estate 
• Most Startups Fail / Power Law Returns 
• Portfolio Approach (20+ investments) 
• Legal Structure, Financial Structure 
• Syndication + Co-Investment 
• Access to Downstream Capital 
• Exits & Liquidity 
24
This Talk… 
• Changes in Tech + VC 
• “Lean VC” = Quantitative Venture Capital 
• Building Startup Ecosystems 
• Global Entrepreneurship 
• Q & A
Local vs Global? 
• Emerging / Developing Markets 
• Global Languages: English, Chinese, Spanish, Arabic 
• Critical Factors: Education, Mentorship, Capital 
• Capital Availability: Incubation, Seed, Series A 
• Positive Macro: SmartPhones, Tablets, Payments, 
Logistics, Growing Middle Class, Distribution Platforms 
• Wealthy Global Users, Shoppers, Travelers
How Big is MicroVC / Seed Stage Market? 
5,000 microVCs invest 100,000 startups/yr @ $500K/startup = $50B/yr 
How many people are entrepreneurs? How many startups get started every year? 
• ~1% of Humanity is “Entrepreneurial” (def’n: “can create a $10M rev/yr business”) 
• 1% x 7B ppl = 70M entrepreneurs, each of which starts 1-5 businesses lifetime 
• entrepreneurs can create 1-5M new startup businesses every year 
! 
How much capital is needed globally to get seed stage startups rolling? 
• Assume 1M-5M startups/yr x $50K-$1M funding/each 
• Low: 1M x $50K = $50B/yr <-> High: 5M x $1M = $5T/yr 
! 
How many metros? How many investors / metro? How many startups / metro? 
• 1 microVC can fund 10-20 startups/yr * $50K-$1M = $1M-$10M annual budget 
• 500+ global metros @ 1M+ ppl can generate ~100-1,000 startups / year 
• guesstimate = min ~100K+ startups/yr across top 100-200 global metros 
• 5-50 VCs / metro * 200 metros = 1,000-10,000 VCs globally 
• Potential: 5,000 VCs deploy $10M->20 startups = $50B/yr -> 100,000 startups 
15
Questions? Comments? 
• More Info? 
– http://500.co (our company) 
– http://500hats.com (my blog) 
– https://angel.co/500startups (our fund) 
– Dave McClure, @DaveMcClure

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Building Startup Ecosystems (Istanbul, Sept 2014)

  • 1. @DaveMcClure @500Startups http://500.co Startup Istanbul - Sept 2014 Changes in Venture Capital + Building Startup Ecosystems
  • 2. This Talk… • Changes in Tech + VC • “Lean VC” = Quantitative Venture Capital • Building Startup Ecosystems • Global Entrepreneurship • Q & A
  • 3. Dave McClure Founding Partner & Chief Troublemaker, 500 Startups 00’s & 10’s: • VC: Founders Fund, Facebook fbFund, 500 Startups • Angel: Mashery, Mint.com, SlideShare, Twilio, Wildfire, SendGrid • Marketing: PayPal, Simply Hired, Mint.com, O’Reilly ! ! 80’s & 90’s: • Entrepreneur: Aslan Computing (acq’d by Servinet/Panurgy) • Developer: Windows / SQL DB consultant (Intel, MSFT) • Engineer: Johns Hopkins‘88, BS Eng / Applied Math
  • 4. 500 Startups Global Seed Fund & Startup Accelerator • What is 500? – $115M silicon valley VC fund + startup accelerator – 35+ people / 12 investing partners – Locations: SV/SF, MEX, BRZ, IND, CHN/TWN, SE Asia – 2000+ Founders / 200+ Mentors – Community + Content + Conferences ! • 850+ Portfolio Co’s / 40+ Countries – Wildfire (acq GOOG, $350M) – MakerBot (acq SSYS, $400M) – Viki (acq Rakuten, $200M) – Simple (acq BBVA, $117M) – Twilio – SendGrid – Credit Karma – Udemy – Barkbox – HomeJoy
  • 5. 500 Startups: Global Seed Fund Over 250+ startups outside US, in 40+ countries
  • 6. This Talk… • Changes in Tech + VC • “Lean VC” = Quantitative Venture Capital • Building Startup Ecosystems • Global Entrepreneurship • Q & A
  • 7. Industry Changes • Financial Market Crises (2000, 2008) • Startup Efficiency, Lean Startup Movement, Reduced Capital Costs • Growing Market, Global Distribution Platforms, Growth Hacking • Improved Monetization, Developing Payments Infrastructure • Developing Startup Ecosystems, Global M&A ! • Micro VC: Seed Funds (ex: First Round Capital) • Incubators & Accelerators (ex: Y Combinator, TechStars, 500) • Funding Platforms (ex: Angel List, Kickstarter) • Growing Global Market of Angel Investors ! more info: http://PreMoney.co (June 27th, San Francisco)
  • 8. Changes in Tech Startups • LESS Capital required to build product, get to market – Dramatically reduced cost for servers, software, bandwidth – Funding Platforms: KickStarter, Angel List, Funders Club, etc – Access to online platforms for 100M-1B+ consumers, smallbiz, etc ! • MORE Customers via ONLINE platforms (100M+ users) – Search (Google) – Social (Facebook, Twitter) – Mobile (Apple, Android) – Media (YouTube, Pinterest, Instagram, Tumblr) – Comm (Email, WeChat/WhatsApp/Line/Kakao, Voice, SMS, etc) ! • LOTS of little bets: Accelerators, Angels, Angel List, Small Exits – Y Combinator, 500 Startups – Capital + Co-working + Mentoring -> Design, Data, Distribution – “Fast, Cheap Fail”, network effects, quantitative + iterative investments
  • 9. Before & After 2 Dot-Com Crashes Daft Punk Startup: Simpler, Faster, Cheaper, Smarter Before 2000 • Sun Servers • Oracle DB • Exodus Hosting • 12-24mo dev cycle • 6-18mo sales cycle • <100M people online • $1-2M seed round • $3-5M Series A • Sand Hill Road crawl • Big, Fat, Dinosaur Startup After 2008 • AWS, Google, PayPal, FB, TW • Cloud + Open Source SW • Lean Startup / Startup Wknd • 3-90d dev cycle • SaaS / online sales • >3B people online • <$100K incub + <$1M seed • $1-3M Series A • Angel List global visibility • Lean, Little, Cockroach Startup
  • 10. Platforms 2.0 Search, Social, Mobile, Video, Messaging
  • 11. Angel List: Platform for Investors + Startups • Startups + Metrics • Founders + Bios • Investors + Syndicates • Accelerators + Online Applications • Jobs + Talent 11
  • 12. This Talk… • Changes in Tech + VC • “Lean VC” = Quantitative Venture Capital • Building Startup Ecosystems • Global Entrepreneurship • Q & A
  • 13. Silicon Valley 2.0: Lots of Little Bets aka “MoneyBall for Startups” • VC Evolution: Physician, Scale Thyself (Aug 2012) • MoneyBall for Startups, 500 Startups Investment Thesis (Jul 2010)
  • 14. 500 Strategy: “Lots of Little Bets” 14
  • 15. The Lean VC: Lots of Little Bets, Incremental Investment Method: Make little bets in lots of startups using incremental investment, iterative development. Start with many small experiments, filter out failures, and expand investment in successes. ! • Incubator: $0-100K (“Build & Validate Product”) • Seed: $100K-$1M (“Test & Grow Marketing Channels””) • Venture: $1M-$10M (“Maximize Growth & Revenue”)
  • 16. Investment Stage #1: Product Validation + Customer Usage • Structure – 1-3 founders – $25-$100K investment – Incubator environment: multiple peers, mentors/advisors ! • Test Functional Prototype / “Minimum Viable Product” (MVP): – Prototype->Alpha, ~3-6 months – Develop Minimal Critical Feature Set => Get to “It Works! Someone Uses It.” – Improve Design & Usability, Setup Conversion Metrics – Test Small-Scale Customer Adoption (10-1000 users) ! • Demonstrate Concept, Reduce Product Risk, Test Functional Use • Develop Metrics & Filter for Possible Future Investment
  • 17. Investment Stage #2: Market Validation + Revenue Testing • Structure – 2-10 person team – $100K-$1M investment – Syndicate of Angel Investors / Small VC Funds ! • Improve Product, Expand Customers, Test Revenue: – Alpha->Beta, ~6-12 months – Scale Customer Adoption => “Many People Use It, & They Pay.” – Test Marketing Campaigns, Customer Acquisition Channels + Cost – Test Revenue Generation, Find Profitable Customer Segments ! • Prove Solution/Benefit, Assess Market Size • Test Channel Cost, Revenue Opportunity • Determine Org Structure, Key Hires
  • 18. Investment Stage #3: Revenue Validation + Growth • Structure – 5-25 person team – $1M-$10M investment – Seed & Venture Investors ! • Make Money (or Go Big), Get to Sustainability: – Beta->Production, 12-24 months – Revenue / Growth => “We Can Make (a lot of) Money!” – Mktg Plan => Predictable Channels / Campaigns + Budget – Scalability & Infrastructure, Customer Service & Operations – Connect with Distribution Partners, Expand Growth ! • Prove/Expand Market, Operationalize Business • Future Milestones: Profitable/Sustainable, Exit Options
  • 19. This Talk… • Changes in Tech + VC • “Lean VC” = Quantitative Venture Capital • Building Startup Ecosystems • Global Entrepreneurship • Q & A
  • 20. Critical Ecosystem Factors • Optimism & Belief (“Silicon Valley”) • Mentorship + Education (Knowledge) • Universities + Companies (People) • Capital, Legal, Finance (Infrastructure) • Engineering + Design / UX (Product) • Platforms + Distribution (Customers) • Online Payments (Monetization) • IPO / M&A Market (Exits) 20
  • 21. Startup Investor Ecosystem !! Y-Combinator TechStars Angels & Incubators ($0-10M) ! “Micro-VC” Funds ($10-100M) Floodgate (Maples) First Round True “Big” VC Funds ($100-500M) Union Square Foundry Atomico A16Z “Mega” VC Funds (>$500M) SoftTech (Clavier) Felicis (Senkut) SV Angel (Conway) Greylock Sequoia Incubation Seed Series A Series B Series C+ Bootstrap, KickStarter, AngelList, Crowdfunding
  • 22. Example Startup Ecosystem • 1,000 Bootstrap Startups ($0-10K) • 300 Accelerator Startups ($10-100K) • 100 Seed-Stage Startups ($100K-$1M) • 30 Series A/B Startups ($1-10M) • 10 Later-Stage Companies ($10-100M) • 1-3 Mature Company IPOs ($100M+) 22
  • 23. Entrepreneur Education • Business Plans • Functional Prototypes • Lean Startup • Software Engineering / Design & UX • Online Marketing / Unit Economics • Monetization & Payments • Customer Service + Support • Fundraising & Pitch 23
  • 24. Investor Education • Startups are NOT Real Estate • Most Startups Fail / Power Law Returns • Portfolio Approach (20+ investments) • Legal Structure, Financial Structure • Syndication + Co-Investment • Access to Downstream Capital • Exits & Liquidity 24
  • 25. This Talk… • Changes in Tech + VC • “Lean VC” = Quantitative Venture Capital • Building Startup Ecosystems • Global Entrepreneurship • Q & A
  • 26. Local vs Global? • Emerging / Developing Markets • Global Languages: English, Chinese, Spanish, Arabic • Critical Factors: Education, Mentorship, Capital • Capital Availability: Incubation, Seed, Series A • Positive Macro: SmartPhones, Tablets, Payments, Logistics, Growing Middle Class, Distribution Platforms • Wealthy Global Users, Shoppers, Travelers
  • 27. How Big is MicroVC / Seed Stage Market? 5,000 microVCs invest 100,000 startups/yr @ $500K/startup = $50B/yr How many people are entrepreneurs? How many startups get started every year? • ~1% of Humanity is “Entrepreneurial” (def’n: “can create a $10M rev/yr business”) • 1% x 7B ppl = 70M entrepreneurs, each of which starts 1-5 businesses lifetime • entrepreneurs can create 1-5M new startup businesses every year ! How much capital is needed globally to get seed stage startups rolling? • Assume 1M-5M startups/yr x $50K-$1M funding/each • Low: 1M x $50K = $50B/yr <-> High: 5M x $1M = $5T/yr ! How many metros? How many investors / metro? How many startups / metro? • 1 microVC can fund 10-20 startups/yr * $50K-$1M = $1M-$10M annual budget • 500+ global metros @ 1M+ ppl can generate ~100-1,000 startups / year • guesstimate = min ~100K+ startups/yr across top 100-200 global metros • 5-50 VCs / metro * 200 metros = 1,000-10,000 VCs globally • Potential: 5,000 VCs deploy $10M->20 startups = $50B/yr -> 100,000 startups 15
  • 28. Questions? Comments? • More Info? – http://500.co (our company) – http://500hats.com (my blog) – https://angel.co/500startups (our fund) – Dave McClure, @DaveMcClure