Analysis of Housing Starts in the United StatesDaniel Kornaus
The object of this thesis is to gauge the state of recoveryin the housing sector (and the larger economy) byanalyzing the number of building permits issued in 2012for housing starts.This data is taken directly from the US Census Bureau.Supporting points:• A comparison of states by the number of housing startsin 2012.• A comparison of trends in individual states over the pastdecade.• An analysis of housing starts by state, weighted by 2010Census data
The methodology:1. Examine state and national trends in housing starts overthe past decade (FY2002 - FY2012.) This will be doneusing a surface and a series of sparklines.2. Examine the geographic trends in housing starts usingraw data. This is done using a map or surface map.3. Adjust the raw housing start data vs. 2010 Censuspopulation figures. This is done to gauge where the mosthousing is being constructed per capita. Again, this isdepicted using a map or surface map. The data wasadjusted using this formula: housing starts / population x1000to provide an integer for each state to use as a scale forcolor-coding a map or projecting a surface.
201220082004050000100000150000200000250000300000The leading edge of this figure shows figures for FY2012, and thetrailing edge shows figures for FY2002.
Alabama 18,40311,385AlaskaArizonaArkansasCaliforniaColoradoConneticut3,00399566,03121,69312,4367,178159,53758,54047,87123,3779,7315,240DelawareDistrict ofColumbiaFloridaGeorgiaHawai’iIdahoIllinois6,3314,0661,5913,823185,43165,03997,52323,4745,9023,21013,4886,75360,97113,675IndianaIowaKansasKentuckyLouisianaMaineMarylandMassachusettsMinnesotaMississippiMissouriMontanaNebraska39,59613,80714,7989,99212,9836,04719,4598,32918,42512,7417,2072,78829,29314,64617,46510,440Michigan49,96811,66938,97715,40911,2765,00028,25511,4673,574 2,8739,2786,535NevadaNew HampshireNew JerseyNew MexicoNew YorkNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOhioOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandSouth CarolinaSouth DakotaOklahoma35,6159,0348,0782,53630,44117,98812,0664,87149,14923,57479,82447,8283,2658,08651,24617,41612,979 11,61622,18611,22245,14419,6632,84877634,10418,8564,816 4,43234,27319,730Tennessee165,027133,297Texas19,32712,520Utah3,0721,258Vermont59,44526,666Virginia40,20028,103Washington4,8901,890West Virginia38,20812,082Wisconsin2,045 1,877Wyoming1,747,651815,512United StatesNote: Years 2006-2008 are depictedwith a red verticalline, to illustratewhen the housingsector began tobe affected by therecession.
Preliminary map of findings. TX, FL, CA, NY, NC, WA, AZ, CO, VA,NC, and GA show the strongest numbers of housing starts in2012. Keep in mind that these are highly populated states.
Preliminary map of adjusted figures. TX, NC, and CO still showstrong housing numbers, while other populated states such asIL, NY, GA, and CA show softer housing markets, when weightedagainst the number of people living there. The Dakotas showparticularly strong growth.
The conclusion:All states were negatively affected by the housing crash.Some are recovering faster than others. Many states inthe south and midwest still show little sign of recovery,while others in the south/southeast and west showstronger numbers in 2012 than in the past 5-6 years.Housing numbers in almost all states were still substan-tially lower in 2012 than they were 8-10 years before.High numbers of housing starts in a particular state arenot necessarily indicitive of a productive housing market,as noticed when population is taken into account.