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  1. 1. AUTOMOTIVE MEGATRENDS MAGAZINE | Q2 2014 THECO NNECT EDCAR I S S U E #eMobility #PowertrainInnovation #FreightEfficiency #Manufacturing&Materials #Retail(R)evolution #Safety+
  2. 2. We are not just engineers. We are bodyguards. If we were only steel producers, delivering cutting edge steel technology that provides the highest level of safety would be impossible. To do it we have to be experts in high strength steel, but also experts in car safety – and have the experience to back it up. For over 30 years, SSAB has been creating Docol High Strength Steel, which makes products lighter, stronger and more sustainable – so that every single car safety component can be optimized and more lives can be saved. It’s not about steel. It’s about life. www.docol.com
  3. 3. Megatrends | 3automotivemegatrends.com Welcome to Automotive Megatrends Magazine - the only global publication dedicated to the business models, technologies and trends which are shaping the automotive industry of tomorrow. WELCOME TO MEGATRENDS Q2 2014 27% 11% 9% 7% 5% 4% 4% 4% 39% Suppliers 29% 12% 6% 4% 4% 3% 3% 29% OEMs Finance / Consultants Oil / Lubricants Logistics Government Academia Other Readership Core focus areas Every quarter, Automotive Megatrends Magazine is sent to 20,000+ opted-in automotive industry stakeholders: Connected Vehicles eMobility Road Freight Efficiency Manufacturing & Materials Powertrain Innovation Retail (R)evolution Safety Welcome The publication is downloaded in more than 150 countries worldwide: Megatrends Magazine ISSN: 2053 776X Publisher: AW Megatrends Ltd 1-3 Washington Buildings Stanwell Road, Penarth CF64 2AD, UK www.automotivemegatrends.com T: +44 (0) 2920 707 021 hello@automotivemegatrends.com Registered number: 800516 VAT number: GB 171 5423 23 Editor: Martin Kahl Business Editor: Megan Lampinen Manufacturing & Materials David Isaiah Electronics & Safety Rachel Boagey Powertrain & Electrification Rachael Hogg Chief Executive: Gareth Davies Advertising: Amanda James T: +44 (0) 2921 287 115 M: +44 (0) 7909 444 213 amanda@automotivemegatrends.com Production & Design: Michael Franklin © AW Megatrends Ltd 2014
  4. 4. 4 | Megatrends automotivemegatrends.com IN THIS ISSUE AUTOMOTIVE MEGATRENDS MAGAZINE | Q2 2014 THECO NNECT EDCAR I S S U E #eMobility #PowertrainInnovation #FreightEfficiency #Manufacturing&Materials #Retail(R)evolution #Safety + > ABOUT THIS ISSUE Welcome toAutomotive Megatrends Magazine – the Connected Car issue. Google's self-driving car, built in Detroit, was a wake-up call for the mainstream automotive industry. It's time to prepare for semi-autonomous cars, developed - if not built - by industry outsiders. What are the implications of increasingly autonomous,increasingly connected cars? This issue explores a wide range of connected car topics, from highly automated driving to cloud technology,via Ethernet, Big Data and voice recognition – all of which help to shape the connected future envisioned by Chris Borroni-Bird in our exclusive interview. Automotive Megatrends Magazine is about more than connected cars, however, and our tour of the megatrends shaping the automotive industry of the future takes in eMobility, Powertrain Innovation, Freight Efficiency, Manufacturing & Materials, the Retail (R)evolution and Safety. Enjoy the magazine and join the debate: Martin Kahl, Editor Contents 8 - BMW’s highly automated car: the ultimate driving machine? BMW, the champion of driving pleasure, is developing autonomous car technology to relieve the driver of that very task. Martin Kahl asks why 13 - A Bird’s-eye view of the future Chris Borroni-Bird talks to Megatrends about the future of mobility > Connected Vehicles 17 - Autonomous cars? We’re nearly there... Self-driving cars are no longer the stuff of science fiction, writes Karthikeyan Natarajan, Senior VP & Global Head of Integrated Engineering Solutions at Tech Mahindra 20 - Driving in the Cloud Megatrends talks to CSC’s Paul Scott about the role of the cloud in the development of the connected car 25 - New functionalities, new risks: it’s time to secure the connected car Infineon’s Shawn Slusser tells Rachel Boagey about the urgent need to address the security of increasingly connected cars 36 - Ethernet: fast track to the connected car Ethernet cuts cabling cost and weight, increasing bandwidth and data transfer speeds. Rachel Boagey considers the role of Ethernet in the development of connected and autonomous cars 39 - Different needs, same speeds: India's just as connected as the West When it comes to the evolution of connectivity, India has what it takes to keep apace with developed markets, says Sudip Singh, Global head of Engineering Services at Infosys 46 Connected cars in a connected era31 Big Data - big opportunity or big problem
  5. 5. Megatrends | 5automotivemegatrends.com IN THIS ISSUE 56 - EV retail - whats needed for success? Elon Musk's direct sales approach for Tesla has raised numerous questions for the mainstream OEMs, especially those selling EVs. By Megan Lampinen 58 - Will changes in F1 reach cars on Highway 1? Rudolf Hart asks whether motor sport can ever be truly relevant to passenger vehicles > eMobility 48 - Virtual power plants provide a vital boost to EV sales EV sales are hampered by a lack of sufficient infrastructure; the roll-out of infrastructure is hampered by high costs. A boost to both could come from virtual power plants, writes Machina Research’s Emil Berthelsen 51 - “Infrastructure, infrastructure, infrastructure” - the main barrier for FCVs With Hyundai's fuel cell car now available commercially in the US as well as Europe, Rachael Hogg asks key industry players whether they expect FCVs to go mainstream any time soon 54 - How wireless charging could increase EV sales Qualcomm’s Anthony Thomson tells Megatrends why he believes wireless charging will help boost the EV market > Powertrain Innovation 61 - Indian transmission manufacturers face control system challenges Mike Savage, Chief Engineer at Drive System Design, works closely with a number of Indian companies and reflects on the challenges they face acquiring new skills to meet market demand for increasingly sophisticated products 63 - Want to improve truck mileage and cut emissions? Just add water! Fierce Fuel Systems proposes mixing diesel with water to improve truck fuel consumption by 20%, and reduce emissions by the same amount. Martin Kahl investigates 66 - Life beyond Euro VI Rachael Hogg discusses life after Euro VI with Federal-Mogul’s Gian Maria Olivetti 69 - Eaton’s supercharger rollout gathers pace Eaton’s Jeff Schick talks to Megatrends about how superchargers can help meet performance criteria whilst still enabling OEMs to achieve tightening fuel economy targets 22 Cars of the future will be driven by software, says Electric Cloud 28 In the connected future, you’ll need to be agile, says Lixar 34 Increasing vehicle complexity requires secure software solutions 40 Getting louder – the rise of the voice in automotive HMI 44 Built-in versus brought-in: the big telematics debate
  6. 6. IN THIS ISSUE 6 | Megatrends automotivemegatrends.com > Manufacturing & Materials 90 - Is Canada’s automotive manufacturing going down under? Canada must take urgent measures to prevent its vehicle manufacturing industry suffering a similar fate to Australia’s, warns Manmeet Malhi 93 - All change for OEM manufacturing strategies in Argentina and Brazil? CARCON Automotive’s Julian Semple considers likely changes in import and export agreements between Argentina and Brazil, and why South America’s two largest new vehicle markets need each other 96 - Landfill gas and the smell of green energy Future generations will despair at how long it's taken to use rubbish as an energy source 100 - Lightweighting drives materials innovation, inside and out Materials suppliers play a key role in automotive product innovation, from unseen under-the-hood applications to Class A surfacing. Megatrends talks to DSM about lighting and lightweighting > Freight Efficiency 72 - North American fleets wage war on carbon NACFE’s Mike Roeth outlines the most promising opportunities for increasing fleet efficiency - and doing so profitably 82 - Truck industry calls for global emissions harmonisation CO2 and greenhouse gas are global problems requiring global solutions. The truck industry wants harmonisation - Daimler’s Wolfgang Bernhard calls it “an historic opportunity that we cannot afford to miss” - but regulators appear more cautious. By Oliver Dixon 80 UPS shares its recipe for natural gas success 84 It’s GST time, say India’s business leaders 98 Nissan takes early advantage of Nigeria’s new auto policy 76 - North American HD buyers warm to 13-litre drivelines Truck buyers are increasingly considering 13L engines instead of 15L options. By Oliver Dixon 86 - Steel to play a key role in meeting 2025 mpg targets David Isaiah talks to Dr. Blake Zuidema, Director of Automotive Product Applications at ArcelorMittal
  7. 7. IN THIS ISSUE Megatrends | 7automotivemegatrends.com > Safety 121 - Autonomous cars, driven by safety Markus Pfefferer, of Ducker India, looks at how the latest developments in car safety technology are bringing the autonomous car closer to reality 128 - Crunch time for fleet market, warns Global NCAP ‘Five star’ safety will determine winners and losers in global fleet market, writes Global NCAP’s Secretary General, David Ward 129 - European Parliament delays eCall…again eCall 2015 has become eCall 2017 > Retail (R)evolution 112 - Forget 2014 – India’s OEMs focus on the long term India’s auto industry sees 2014 as a year to forget, but the market has serious long-term potential 115 - Car brands must harness the online experience to drive forecourt sales eBay Advertising’s Phuong Nguyen looks at how car brands can capitalise on the increasingly blurred lines between on- and offline channels to boost sales across the board 108 Digital marketing is the new normal for car manufacturers 117 Truck aftersales: Roadmap to excellence 106 Ford enjoys life in the Quick Lane 124 Communications technology challenges safety regulators 126 - Expect a busy year for NHTSA rulemaking and enforcement 2014 is set to bring strict enforcement of distraction, crash avoidance and recall policy 102 - Retail challenges demand more integrated approach, and soon The car retail industry needs to get ahead of the game, or risk getting left behind, as McKinsey’s Hans-Werner Kaas explains to Megatrends
  8. 8. CONNECTED VEHICLES As the safety ratings of organisations like Euro NCAP and the US Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) become harder to achieve,the role of electronics and advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) will become increasingly important. One of the outcomes of this will be to take the industry ever closer to semi-autonomous and fully autonomous cars. Indeed, safety suppliers likeTRW see semi-autonomous and ultimately fully autonomous driving as the logical outcome of safety technology developments. Google unveiled its self-driving car prototypes in May 2014;Volvo said in June it is preparing to test its autonomous car prototypes in Gothenburg; and at the 2013 Frankfurt Motor Show, Daimler’s Chief Executive, Dieter Zetsche, was driven on stage at his press conference by the Mercedes-Benz S 500 Intelligent Drive, the same self-driving S-Class that famously followed the route taken by Bertha Benz in 1888 when she made the first ever long-distance car journey. Even BMW, for so long the champion of Freude am Fahren (“the joy of driving”),is developing its own autonomous car technology to relieve the driver of that very task. Proponents of autonomous cars usually underline their usefulness in allowing drivers to relinquish control of the vehicle to technology designed to work in tedious, repetitive situations like slow-moving traffic jams. BMW is taking a different approach to reach the same ultimate goal by developing the technology to work at motorway or expressway speeds. “In our 8 | Megatrends automotivemegatrends.com BMW’s highly automated car: the ultimate driving machine? BMW, the champion of driving pleasure, is developing autonomous car technology to relieve the driver of that very task. Martin Kahl asks why
  9. 9. CONNECTED VEHICLES opinion,highly automated driving involves the driver being able to press a button when the car is travelling at 130kph motorway speed, and for the car to take over the driving task,” explains BMW’s Dr Werner Huber, Project Manager Driver, Assistance and Environmental Perception at BMW Group Research andTechnology.“On the one hand, this involves high complexity due to the vehicle’s speed. On the other hand, there’s reduced complexity due to the type of traffic - there are generally good road markings and road signs, there is nothing coming in the opposite direction, and there is nothing crossing in front of the car.” Drivers who are used to regular slow- moving, bumper-to-bumper city traffic might consider travelling at speeds of 130kph (81mph) to be enjoyable, rather than tedious.For Huber,“The fun of driving is on the weekend on a rural road, in the mountains. Standing in a traffic jam or driving a few hundred kilometres along a boring highway is not fun.You can use the time for other things.And a long boring trip is not a safe trip.You get tired, you get inattentive.” Here, BMW’s autonomous car technology can take over what Huber refers to as the relatively simple job of driving - keeping in lane, and not colliding. Driver taking back control? Much of the discussion about the role of the “driver” in an autonomous car has centred on whether that driver is able to instantly or even quickly take back control of the vehicle if required. However, even after a few minutes of autonomous drive travel,a driver may be completely unaware of their surroundings.“We cannot rely on the driver “Traditionally, ConnectedDrive has been related to infotainment, safety and comfort services,” says Simon Euringer, head of ConnectedDrive engineering for BMW, Roll- Royce and Mini. “For 15 years, we’ve been equipping cars with SIM cards, connected to our back-end and our call centre. Now we're taking ConnectedDrive to the next level, enabling mobility services.We’ll take you from A to B.One leg of this trip might be in the car, another on public transportation, another on rental bike, for example. Traditionally, navigation has begun in the car and ended in the car. Now navigation starts on your smartphone and it will take you to your car.While you're in the car it will be on-board navigation; it help you find parking, and then switch you to public transportation. “ConnectedDrive is an enabler for mobility services. Ultimately, ConnectedDrive brings your digital lifestyle into the vehicle.With this holistic, 360 degree approach, it offers a set of services that makes your mobility smarter. It takes your mobility out of an era where it is just car oriented.” And there’s a considerable overlap between ConnectedDrive and BMW’s highly automated driving programme, with BMW looking to increase the services it can offer a ‘driver’ of a car in highly automated drive mode.Hit the highway,hit the highly automated drive button,and sit back to make full use of ConnectedDrive.The highly automated drive programme and BMW’s ConnectedDrive go hand in hand, says Euringer,“freeing up time that can be used more productively.” The new era of ConnectedDrive is here; but beyond what BMW is offering now, what is being developed for an automated car?“We’re doing everything that is technically possible. It's not just about the driving, but also about how drivers use their new-found free time. We've put a lot of effort into that, to demonstrate our technical abilities and how many situations we can already handle with autonomous driving. Euringer concedes that there is still considerable work to be done to be able to bring the driver safely back into the loop from a car in highly automated drive mode, but adds that the legal situation presents a greater challenge.“Ultimately, you’re handing over the driving task to an algorithm. If the car is about to hit an obstacle, whether it’s a person or another car, and the driver is not in the loop, then ultimately an algorithm has to take an ethical decision: ‘Who am I going to hit?’ And for this we need a legal background. What happens then, and who is liable? To date, we have the Vienna Convention, which says the driver is liable in all situations. But what if you hand over the task to an algorithm? What then?” Megatrends | 9 The new era of ConnectedDrive: making mobility smarter automotivemegatrends.com
  10. 10. CONNECTED VEHICLES in a critical situation; we must rely on a very good car,” says Huber. For this reason, BMW’s vision of highly automated driving involves taking the driver out of the driving loop. “Give the driver the chance to do other things.Then it's a real benefit. It's not a benefit to sit behind the steering wheel and just observe what the car is doing.And if the car does 99% of the job very well and in 1% it fails, and as a driver you’re expected to intervene, well, that's not fair.” What drivers do with their time whilst being driven autonomously must also be carefully considered. Someone eating or reading a large newspaper, for example, has little opportunity to quickly take over the control of the vehicle. Achieving highly automated driving is therefore not only a technical issue, says Huber – it’s also about identifying what people can do with their time. BMW has shown that its highly automated cars are capable of overtaking buses, slalom driving, and even drifting. However, this was to illustrate technical capability, and to illustrate how the vehicle can respond in critical situations.“In reality,highly automated driving is not about drifting,” grins Huber. “Normally the car will be driving at highway speed, the driver will be in position, and we have to offer them some form of entertainment,or change the interior displays so that he can work in the car. But you have to also offer the ability to quickly regain control of the driving task.That means the controls and steering wheel must be there. The displays must function in a way that they can be used during normal driving, but they shouldn't disturb the driver when the car is in self-drive mode.Yet the driver should be able to quickly return to full driving mode.” Much of the technology is already in place Just as Daimler highlighted that its self-driving Mercedes-Benz S-Class used essentially existing technology, so too is Huber keen to emphasise that BMW’s highly automated vehicle technology is a logical extension of existing technology.“We have automatic gear shift; we have automatic throttle, we have electric power steering and we can talk to each brake,” says Huber. “So the basic technology is already available. We're also able to drive into a garage by controlling the car remotely with a key. We already have everything onboard every BMW.” There is, however, a key difference between BMW’s normal cars and the self-driving prototypes: a high-precision differential GPS (DGPS).“GPS is precise to between 1 and 5 metres, depending on the satellite constellation. In this car, if we want to drive say, through a path of cones, it needs to be millimetre accurate,” explains Huber.“That's why we implemented the DGPS. In a later highly automated car, we will have a very precise map to localise the car.That means that unlike driver assistance systems,we need to install additional and more precise technology to steer the car. But other than the environmental sensors, we don't need too much more for an autonomous car.” To a layman, then, it appears to be ‘simply’ a case of making the systems talk to each other, but Huber adds a strong sense of reality to such thoughts: “We don't rely on that.We have a back-end connection for car- to-X, where the X is called the back-end centre.Through crowd sourcing,cars help to improve the centre’s understanding of what's going on outside.And the centre is necessary to supply the car with a high definition digital map, which we cannot buy in. For the motorways we are driving at present, we have a specific HD map, but we would need it for the whole network.” And that needs to also be a highly precise topographic map. Huber says BMW has the algorithms to develop such a map in-house, and in the future, it will be combined with data from other vehicles to constantly improve the map.“This is why we need this connection to a back-end, to improve the quality of the environmental model, and amend the situational interpretation of what is going on. If a car further up the traffic queue brakes hard, then we don't have to wait until the traffic pulse moves down the line of vehicles to our car. We know it electronically – a hard brake and everything can stop at the same time.” Not before 2020 So the big question is:when will this become a reality?“Not before 2020,” says Huber,echoing timescales suggested by other companies that have committed to launching self-driving cars, including Nissan.Aside from the technological development that is still needed, the legal framework crucially needs to be established. 2020 seems close, but in consumer electronic terms, that's a long way off. “Yes, but in automotive terms,autonomous driving means completely changing the architecture of a car,” says Huber.“We need more redundancy.A data network in a car is designed for the requirements it has to fulfil, and there is no requirement for redundancy. If anything fails, then it fails.We just have to ensure that the car is still safe. In an autonomous mode you have the same requirement, but there is no driver to intervene if the steering or brakes fail.If such things happen in an autonomous car,it must be able to self-diagnose and it must be able to survive ten or 15 seconds until it's safe.So we have to find approaches for redundancy.And we are working on those concepts.The data networks of cars will change in the future,that is certain,but I'm confident that we can handle it. It's a question of cost too. But these are problems we can solve.” Google has opted for a self-driving car that operates at low speeds in urban environments.Huber suggests that BMW sees inner city applications as being further down the line. For now, BMW’s focus is on highly automated motorway and expressway driving. “We know the sensors we need for the motorway scenario. Highly automated inner city driving is still far away.At BMW we are talking about the highly automated motorway scenario,perhaps travelling like that for a few hundred kilometres.That's how we see the first step in handing control over to the car.” Freude am Fahren? It might be time to consider reworking that marketing slogan. 10 | Megatrends automotivemegatrends.com
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  12. 12. September 10: Commercial Vehicle #PowertrainInnovation #FreightEfficiency #MarketOutlook September 11: Passenger Car #PowertrainInnovation #ConnectedCar #Retail(R)evolution Now in its second year, this unique conference will bring together key stakeholders to network and discuss the business models, technologies and trends that look set to shape Europe's commercial vehicle and passenger car industries over the next ten years and beyond. SPEAKERS INCLUDE Book your place now We offer a limited number of free and discount places to our site license customers and senior employees of large automotive industry stakeholders, including OEMs, suppliers and government. If you think you qualify for a free or discounted ticket please complete the form and we will contact you within 24 hours
  13. 13. A Bird’s-eye view of the future Chris Borroni-Bird talks to Megatrends about the future of mobility. By Rachel Boagey As the connected car develops,consumers will demand vehicles that are even safer, more comfortable and more environmentally- friendly than today, and fully reflect the level of consumer electronics that people expect in other aspects of their lives.This is the vision of the future of mobility of advanced technology expert, Chris Borroni-Bird, who believes consumer desires for the ‘ideal connected car’ now need to be made reality. Megatrends spoke to Borroni-Bird, Vice President of Strategic Development at Qualcomm, about his vision of the future of mobility, and the steps that need to be taken by the automotive industry to produce that ‘ideal connected car’. Cars that can see around corners Borroni-Bird joined Qualcomm from General Motors in 2012, the latest step in a career spent developing technology that helps vehicles communicate with each other and with their surroundings, with the ultimate aim of eliminating collisions,reducing vehicle weight and improving efficiency. Qualcomm is a semiconductor company, perhaps best known for its work with smartphones and tablet computers,but it has recently made headway into the automotive industry, increasingly the direction for many traditionally non-automotive suppliers such as Apple and Intel. Qualcomm is now producing cellular chips and technology for cars and automotive-specific technologies, including wireless charging and wireless vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication. CONNECTED VEHICLES Megatrends | 13automotivemegatrends.com
  14. 14. CONNECTED VEHICLES Future mobility will be developed around electric vehicles (EVs) that talk to each other and use only wireless technology, believes Borroni-Bird.“Qualcomm is working towards addressing consumer and societal trends with wireless connectivity solutions, along with mobile processing technologies and, of course, wireless charging.” These increasing consumer and societal demands, says Borroni-Bird, will require vehicles to be ever more locally networked – that is, “have the ability to communicate with each other at near distance for collision avoidance purposes.” When combined with the increasingly widespread number of sensors for collision avoidance, Qualcomm’s technology will be able to improve this performance, says Borroni-Bird. Cars will be able to perform functions that drivers cannot, such as seeing around corners,or quickly and safely adapting to bad weather conditions. In late 2013, Qualcomm, alongside Honda, developed a system to prevent vehicle-to- pedestrian collisions, enabling communication between the two. The system involved a pedestrian carrying a smartphone equipped with Qualcomm’s DSRC modules, and an Acura TL, which was also equipped with the device. In this case, both the driver and the pedestrian were alerted that a collision was imminent, even though they were unable to see each other. The interest in such technology is clear: were all cars and pedestrians equipped with similar sensors, incidences of cars colliding with pedestrians stepping out from behind parked cars, for example, might no longer involve serious or fatal injuries,or indeed any collision at all. An automotive world stored in the clouds Many OEMs are introducing cellular connectivity into their vehicles to provide consumers with the in-car infotainment they require and desire, and these connections can also prove useful for providing further connectivity for the car, such as driver assistance technologies. Congestion is a major issue, especially in many cities,having a negative impact on traffic times as well as energy usage. Borroni-Bird sees a role for vehicles linking to the cloud via cellular connection. “We see that it can help in terms of enabling more accurate and more frequent map updates,” he says,“as well as information about problems that are occurring down the road.” This can range from traffic time predictions to warnings about weather conditions. “It’s not inconceivable that a car in the future encountering patches of ice in a certain location could send that information to the cloud,” he says. “This would alert nearby vehicles of the ice before they actually hit it.” Despite the possibilities that vehicle connectivity can provide in terms of sharing information between vehicles, Borroni-Bird highlighted the potential for further connectivity between vehicles and infrastructure to make cities smarter in the future.“Connectivity both locally for collision avoidance as well as to the cloud for traffic and road information is going to be increasingly important in the future.” Hungry cars With increased connectivity,however,comes increased data, and vehicles will continue to generate and transmit data to the cloud. “There is a lot of work needed on the network side to support these hungry cars which have insatiable appetites for data, and there’s going to be a need for more powerful processing on the vehicle,” says Borroni-Bird. He continues, “This is one of the things to consider as we think about the next generation of cellular networks. In city centres, where you have tremendous quantities of sensor data to generate, that’s where you may need the greatest capacity in terms of bandwidth.” City transport – autonomous and efficient According to Borroni-Bird, autonomous vehicles have the potential to ultimately change the business plan for shared mobility services, if the vehicles can ‘self-balance’ themselves at the end of each day and be brought back to the starting point ready for the beginning of the next day.“I think it would improve the finance on the business side of a shared mobility service,” he explains. “At the moment, car share companies have to send people out to drive the vehicles back at the end of the day to where they may be needed at the beginning of the next day. They’re experimenting with new business models,such as incentives for people to take strides against the flow, so to speak, for a subsidised rate. If the vehicles could drive autonomously,that would be very attractive.” automotivemegatrends.com14 | Megatrends
  15. 15. CONNECTED VEHICLES automotivemegatrends.com Megatrends | 15 Qualcomm® Snapdragon™ Processor Automotive Solutions - “Connected Infotainment” And on the subject of shared mobility, EVs may also be a solution,“because just as these shared vehicles make sense in city centres, now that’s also where you need clean vehicles to tackle pollution concerns.” Although people may still own a car for occasional long distance trips, Borroni-Bird believes a shared EV may be attractive for daily use during the week.“And if it can go and park itself because it’s autonomous,then it certainly would play into the need for wireless EV charging, because if the vehicle’s parking itself you don’t want someone to be responsible for plugging it in.” Look at Qualcomm’s offerings, and it’s clear that autonomous vehicles and wirelessly charged EVs form a central role in the company’s vision of the smart city of the future. Indeed, Borroni-Bird’s long-term vision for shared vehicles includes semi-dynamic charging, something he believes would make sense in places like for taxi ranks and at intersections, where cars spend a significant periods of time.“Wireless charging should be something that people don’t have to think about, he explains.“It’s just part of the long- term vision,beyond benefits in the home and static charging in public parking spaces.” From high-end to mainstream Technology currently being introduced in high-end vehicles will be mainstream technology in ten years’ time, due in part to the declining cost of said technology, as well as rising demand. This is not a new phenomenon, but the trickle-down of technology is increasing. “You’ll see more vehicles that have mild hybridisation and more vehicles that have capability of collision- avoidance technologies,” he says,“like forward collision warning,lane detection and so forth.” The changing face of automotive design Through implementing technologies such as Ethernet into their cars, OEMs have been significantly reducing not only connectivity costs but also the very weight of cabling in their vehicles. However, most vehicles currently carry over 3kg of mass in terms of passive safety content, such as energy absorbing foam and airbags,seatbelts and the crash structure itself. By changing the face of technology, and enabling vehicle autonomy, Borroni-Bird believes there is potential for a complete redesign of the car as we know it.“It’ll need a structure, obviously, for ride and handling purposes,but you wouldn’t need as significant a mass of structure if you don’t have to worry about crashing,” he says. “Today, you have a choice between steel, aluminium and carbon fibre, but if you didn’t have to worry about crashes,then it may open up the space to new materials that might be less expensive, or lighter, or more recyclable, or offer some other benefit. And that in turn opens up opportunities for changing the shape of the vehicle. You might be able to enter through the front of the vehicle instead of the side, as you would no longer be worried about frontal impact.” Despite there being much that could be done to change the design of the vehicle, Borroni- Bird concedes that it is a long way from happening. Nonetheless, he maintains that it could occur sooner in a segregated community like a campus. “In terms of the mixed environment that we assume is the dominant model, it will probably be decades before you get to a point where the penetration of autonomous vehicles is such that you can begin to think about that seriously.” The automotive world in 2025 So,how does Borroni-Bird see the automotive world in 2025? He grins.“That’s only a couple of models away from where we are now,given the cycle times,and if you look back ten years at what cars were like in 2004 versus today, you wouldn’t find a tremendous difference.” Nonetheless, in the next ten years, Borroni- Bird sees efficiency being one of the main game-changers. “You may see a greater fraction of vehicles having some kind of a mild hybrid, maybe 42V or 48V systems to promote start-stop capability.You’ll see more plug-in hybrids and more pure battery electric vehicles, but unless there’s a breakthrough in battery technology or a real change in the price of fuel, or some extreme regulatory action that we don’t know about just yet, I think the vehicles will in many senses be not that different from today. They’ll be capable of a certain level of autonomous driving, such as the limited speed, highway assist operations that are likely to be introduced.” The road to the future As the industry moves into an exciting new phase of product development,designing the car of tomorrow to meet new technological innovations is currently one of the main challenges facing OEMs and suppliers. Despite constant innovation inside the vehicle, the slow automotive development cycle is still a drawback for consumer desires. Regardless of the changes that will occur inside and outside of the car within the next ten years, it is clear that considerable work still needs to be done before Borroni-Bird’s connected vehicle vision becomes reality.
  16. 16. Quality Software Makes the Car Better. Continuous Delivery Makes the Software Better. Accelerate Software Delivery www.electric-cloud.com / @electriccloud Quality SoftwareQuality SoftwareQuality SoftwareQuality SoftwareQuality Software Makes the Car Better Quality Software Makes the Car Better Quality Software Makes the Car Better Quality Software Makes the Car Better.Makes the Car Better Continuous Delivery MakesContinuous Delivery Makes the Software Better Continuous Delivery Makes the Software Better Continuous Delivery Makes the Software Betterthe Software Better Accelerate Software Delivery the Software Better Accelerate Software Delivery .the Software Better Accelerate Software Delivery www.electric-cloud.comwwwwww.electric-cloud.com electriccloud/ @
  17. 17. Megatrends | 17automotivemegatrends.com Just a few years ago, the very concept of a self-driving car was the stuff of science fiction. However,in the past year alone,technologists have made huge strides in developing autonomous vehicles, with varying levels of operational autonomy now being tested.Yet, much of the underlying technology required to build truly autonomous vehicles, such as cameras,sensors,radars and imaging systems is already available.We already let aircraft and ships make decisions and pilot themselves. What’s the red light holding up cars? Clearly,more autonomous cars that build on a few fundamental technologies are a feature of the near future.Google has already logged more than 700,000 accident-free miles in its self-driving cars on the streets of Mountain View, California, without the assistance of a human driver. General Motors, Toyota, Mercedes-Benz,Audi, BMW andVolvo are all testing their own full or partially autonomous systems. Volvo has demonstrated its ‘autonomous valet parking cars’ in Europe, and Nissan has said it intends to launch autonomous cars by 2020. The move towards the development of autonomous vehicles, however slow, is inevitable and is likely to progress with incremental developments such as advanced driver assistance systems,park assist systems, integrated vehicle health monitoring and autonomous systems. The human and economic case The human and economic case for greater autonomy is compelling. Moving from point ‘A’ to point ‘B’ involves multi-factor decision making about mode of transport, route, time constraints, safety, comfort, weather, luxury and convenience. In many cases, rules or machine learning-based decisions are likely to be objectively better than those made by a human. One of the central arguments in favour of more autonomous modes of transport is the safety value they offer. As is well documented, some 90% of road accidents stem from human error.At a trivial level, we are already safer and better off if we let a modern vehicle park itself. Autonomous cars? We’re nearly there... Self-driving cars are no longer the stuff of science fiction, writes Karthikeyan Natarajan, SeniorVP & Global Head of Integrated Engineering Solutions atTech Mahindra CONNECTED VEHICLES
  18. 18. More seriously,making vehicles autonomous globally could save US$300-400bn of societal and economic impact, taking into account loss of human life, social consequences and insurance claims.There is much to be gained by removing the human element. Ultimately, there is no reason that technology cannot make roads driver-free. As Google’s driverless car tests have proven, there's a serious case that the self- driving car, with proper intelligent infrastructure, could be safer than the average driver. Clearly, vehicles equipped with intelligent technologies that enable more efficient decisions and driving styles can provide improved fuel efficiency. There is also the potential to improve journey times and traffic flow, freeing up owners’ time.Technological cars also open the door to solving one of the great conundrums of the industry. A connection to the OEM can continue to provide updates, patches and improvements, and deliver an ongoing relationship with the consumer.The door is open to OEMs to do what has eluded them for a century: to keep adding value after the car has left the dealer forecourt. The ecosystem: physical, legal and economic infrastructure Apart from the primary technology required to build road-safe autonomous vehicles,huge regulatory and infrastructure challenges remain. Autonomous vehicles make sense and will offer a viable alternative to manually- controlled cars only if the infrastructure is in place to support them. Just as electric vehicles require an ecosystem of charging points that can quickly charge a vehicle without bringing down the electricity grid, so too will autonomous vehicles require significant investment in new infrastructure. Intelligent traffic lights and smart lanes with sensors to assist automated parking are just a start. Moreover, specific safety regulations and traffic rules within individual countries must be taken into account. Any autonomous vehicle system must be adaptable to any given regulatory regime.What happens when the cars cross national borders? Can we expect a self-driving car to drive on the left of the road onto a ferry at the UK port of Dover, and have it drive off on the right side of the road when it reaches Calais in France? Clearly, cars must be programmed to tailor their intelligent drive systems to different geographies and cultures. Then there are less tangible factors to consider. It has, for example, been argued automotivemegatrends.com CONNECTED VEHICLES 18 | Megatrends
  19. 19. that autonomous vehicles, built with advanced sensing and tracking capabilities and constantly monitored, pose a threat to privacy. While this feature will improve vehicle performance, it creates new security concerns and risks commercial misuse.Whilst most of us are comfortable to receive targeted advertising from, say, a free satnav programme, will we feel differently if we’re targeted on the basis of data from our car? Finally, there is the cultural challenge. Are consumers ready to change a fundamental part of everyday life? Can someone give up the pleasure of driving?This final hurdle could well be the most significant;but there will be new rewards, such as, for example, sitting in the driver’s seat without being discombobulated by rush hour traffic! How will the industry change? Culturally and ergonomically, driverless cars need not resemble the cars of today. For instance, in a completely driverless car or digital cockpit, is there even a need for a steering wheel? And if human intervention is required,is there a better way to operate the controls than a steering wheel? We can also safely assume that the role of ‘intelligence’ within such cars must be significantly greater than it is today. These changes are reflected in an already changing business ecosystem. OEMs are great at building desirable, functional machines, but increasingly recognise that partners are needed to develop, test and implement the artificial intelligence and machine learning that must underpin the next generation of cars. The automotive industry has anticipated this change for a few decades, growing a partner ecosystem. It started with the inclusion and integration of electronics and artificial intelligence into cars. Next-generation cars include electronics in everything from braking systems, engine and powertrain, to body controls and infotainment,enabled with advanced driver assist systems (ADAS) integrating with multiple types of sensor inputs, radar and image fusion and analytics, not forgetting the electronics and software. System architecture, integration and system testing would be more challenging than ever before. With autonomous vehicles, such requirements will only increase. With the primary technologies already falling into place, the greatest hurdle is not technological but cultural and commercial. Bluntly, we need a more agile commercial ecosystem to create and adopt technology faster than ever before.We need to define boundaries for our personal data.The value chain - encompassing developers, content and app providers,telcos,insurers and OEMs - still has to catch up with the implications of more autonomous vehicles. Megatrends | 19automotivemegatrends.com CONNECTED VEHICLES
  20. 20. CSC has conducted a considerable level of research into the use of the cloud in the automotive industry.The consulting and outsourcing solutions provider recently came up with a research project entitled “Driving in the Cloud”. Megatrends asked Paul Scott, Industry Strategist, Global Vertical Manufacturing at CSC,to explain the thinking behind this project. “Driving in the Cloud is our vision of how the automotive industry will work in the future,” says Scott, “and it focuses on the lifecycle of the car, essentially from the cradle to the grave.There are basically two parts to this picture: the traditional part, namely engineering and manufacturing; and the ‘new world’ around aftermarket and service which is being driven by key technology trends: cloud technology, Big Data and social media.” Fundamentally,there are two key factors that will lead to a successful business strategy shaped around the connected car, says Scott: how to use the data generated by connected cars, and how to store that data. “There’s already a huge amount of data.The question is, what data to extract, what data to analyse? And then what should be done with the data afterwards, and how should it be used within an organisation? An OEM organisation includes sales, marketing, customer service and dealers, so it has to channel this information to the right people to use the information in the right way.” Interestingly, Scott believes that concerns about data security and privacy have changed. “I think we've gone past that thought process. I think organisations have realised that the huge volumes of data need to be stored in some form of cloud-based architecture to allow easy access to it. Some of it is going to be made available to insurance companies or other third parties who want to sell services. So I see the cloud playing a big role going forwards.” The OEMs are losing the race The connected car is increasingly seen as offering opportunities to non-traditional automotive suppliers,and in terms of what happens to that data,Scott believes the car companies are being outplayed by insurance companies, for example.“They already have their dongles and black boxes in some cars, and are using that information. So why doesn't an OEM capture and sell the information to the insurance companies? This goes back to CONNECTED VEHICLES automotivemegatrends.com20 | Megatrends Driving in the Cloud Megatrends talks to CSC’s Paul Scott about the role of the cloud in the development of the connected car. By Martin Kahl
  21. 21. one of my earlier points - how can an organisation take the data created by the combination of consumer and vehicle and use it to generate revenue?” One oft-cited area is predictive maintenance, which can be used to get people to come into an authorised repair shop to get their car repaired. Scott agrees. “Under warranty,over 80% of people go into authorised repair shops;once a car is out of warranty, this drops down to below 25%.You can argue about the percentages but there's a huge drop and therefore a huge potential for OEMS to capture additional service revenue and spare parts revenue.” This would suggest that there's a potential for the OEMs to capture that service, but there's also an opportunity for smaller players, if they were able to buy that data, to join the race. “Yes. Who owns the user interface? Who owns the data? The challenge for an OEM is how to get that data and how to utilise that data, how to turn it into information, and monetise it. This will take place within the OEM and across the overall ecosystem.” Built-in or brought-in? Delivering the desired connected vehicle experience is another area of debate, specifically around the question of brought- in or built-devices.“The OEMs are pursuing different routes and it will be interesting to see how the strategies unfold. If the OEMs are not careful, the car display will be reminiscent of a dumb terminal to gain access to infotainment and navigation information streamed from the cloud.” A dumb terminal in the car pairing with an occupant’s smartphone for infotainment and navigation would create a serious challenge for the OEM wanting to ensure some ownership of that experience.This suggestion leads Scott to repeat his comment that some OEMs“are losing that race”. With third parties generating data and content, the OEMs are losing out.“An OEM stands to win if it's using data that it's generating itself,” explains Scott.“What data does the OEM have? It has data from its cars - how its cars are performing, how far a car is being driven, and when the next service is due.By understanding when the next service is due, and connecting that with where the consumer normally gets that car serviced, the OEM can prearrange a service appointment. What happens when the red light error message appearing in the dashboard can be diagnosed,and appropriate action suggested and organised by the OEM? Wouldn't it be nice if the customer service desk automatically made contact with the consumer with information about that red light error message just after it appears, or even better, based on predictive patterns, before the red light is even triggered?” Turn customers into brand advocates Some suppliers, including Arynga and Red Bend, and OEMs like Tesla, are already operating free,over-the-air software updates that can prevent such red light warnings occurring. “In other industries, particularly the aerospace industry, we're doing some work on Big Data analytics, involving figuring out what has caused an error,” says Scott. “When an error takes place,you then analyse the events that took place prior to the error. The more errors you get, the better you can understand the importance of the events. “The next sophisticated step of predictive maintenance is to figure out what combination of events or factors are relevant,” he continues.“Once those start to occur in sequence, you can transmit a message to the driver with a suggested relevant preventative or emergency action. This is important in terms of safety and in terms of the customer experience. Get the customer experience right and somebody will go from a customer to a loyal customer and from a loyal customer to being an advocate of the brand.And I think that's one way the data can be used in a much more sophisticated predictive way, saving money for the consumer and giving the consumer a safer driving experience.” And this could prevent large OEMs from issuing multi-million unit recalls.“Of course. If you know when errors are occurring, you can send an early warning back to the relevant engineering or risk department so they can assess what needs doing, and take appropriate action.” Winners and losers So,who does Scott think will be the winners, financially, from the connected car – OEMs, telecoms, suppliers, or some other party? “Telecoms companies will definitely claim a victory, because of the volumes of communication that will take place.Once we get into car-to-car and car-to-infrastructure communications,the levels of communication will increase further still,and the potential for revenue generation is very high. The infrastructure providers will also claim a victory. But I think those who can orchestrate everything will be the real winners.” And that might not necessarily be a traditional automotive industry player at all. “It could well be another party entirely,” concludes Scott. “The infotainment race is not an OEM race any more. It’s a Silicon Valley race. Own the user interface and you are in pole position for the revenue streams!” CONNECTED VEHICLES automotivemegatrends.com Megatrends | 21
  22. 22. The number of lines of code in a single automotive electronic control unit (ECU) already often reaches into the tens of millions. However, as emissions and safety regulations tighten, the role played by electronics is set to see the use of software in automotive applications increase many times over.Add to this the rising demand for infotainment and consumer electronics capabilities in cars, and the scene is set for vehicles driven by software. This software needs to be written quickly, verified and constantly maintained; errors can have huge implications. Developers are expected to work at increasing speeds,and subsequently have less time to spend on manual maintenance tasks, and it is here that companies providing software production management solutions can gain a competitive edge. Electric Cloud helps to get software to market at a faster rate, by assisting companies to automate, accelerate and analyse software build-test deployment processes. The US-based company works across a variety of industries, including automotive. Andreas Dharmawan, Senior Director of Solutions and Services at Electric Cloud spoke to Megatrends about the increasing complexity of cars, and the software delivery challenges presented by the automotive industry. Electric Cloud focuses on many markets, but what is the automotive aspect of your company? Marc Andreessen, Groupon and LinkedIn investor,said a few years ago that‘software is eating the world’.The automotive industry is using software at a rapidly increasing rate and customers demand the same services in their cars as on their smartphones. If you look at the technology to reduce traffic congestion and increase fuel efficiency, cars now have software for this. Much of the automotive supply chain is hiring software engineers who are in a very competitive market. OEMs can conduct considerable software development on the test side,but can’t work fast when the module they build goes into multiple models. For a supplier, the test metrics become even more complicated. Many software modules need to be married into the hardware module,because software is an embedded system, so it’s not just running on Pentium or ARM chips. It goes into a different engine control unit.This could be for powertrain, transmission, ignition firing, or lighting. Even though the process of embedding software into hardware is semi- automated, it is not fully orchestrated.There are many manual tasks.We have also noticed that sometimes the team building the software is located in a different time zone to the team doing the testing, which leads to lost time. What does Electric Cloud do for OEMs and suppliers? Many of the manual processes need to be orchestrated.Electric Cloud can orchestrate and model an existing process. OEMs or suppliers don’t need to change the way they work. We help the automotive industry in two ways:one is orchestrating the build,test, and release process to eliminate time consuming and error prone manual tasks,and eliminating the delays of cross-timezone 22 | Megatrends automotivemegatrends.com Rachael Hogg talks to Electric Cloud about managing the increasing complexity of automotive technology CONNECTED VEHICLES Cars of the future will be driven by software, says Electric Cloud
  23. 23. Megatrends | 23automotivemegatrends.com work.The second is pure acceleration - much embedded software is written in C/C++,and Electric Cloud accelerates the build time for C/C++.The top five embedded companies in the world are Electric Cloud customers because they do a large volume of C/C++ build, and we can reduce a build that previously took six hours, into 20 minutes, through massive parallelisation. Why did Electric Cloud enter the automotive industry in the first place? A customer called us who was trying to master agile development, but their time to market and quality was an issue.Two types of company approach us. One has an issue with the coordination of effort.They master the agile but the time to market and product quality is still low.We help with their build, test, and release. The other is a customer whose build time takes six hours and is unable to carry out agile development. How important is the automotive industry within your company, and what role will it play in Electric Cloud's business strategy long term? Automotive is a growth business - we would like to grow our company rapidly and see automotive as a sector where we can grow. We are promoting and evangelising continuous delivery. Many of our existing customers are on that transformation. We want to always be the leader in the continuous delivery space and to move it to automotive. One area of concern is reliability and the avoidance of software-related malfunctions. How can your system help car manufacturers overcome bugs? Our product allows the development team to move faster between build and test. Because we have the technology of massive parallelisation, a lot of the first permutations have complex build and test metrics. If you can iterate every day, you discover bugs almost every day.When you discover these bugs,the development team can fix it sooner. In the past, the product would be released without adequate bug fixing and these bugs would be discovered by customers. Our customers can move the bug peak to earlier in the test cycle, so a developer can collaborate and reduce or eliminate all priority one and zero bugs, and confidently release the software. The ability to display the progress of each team, and the status of each artefact as it goes through the pipeline of continuous delivery is also important.We can maintain a module through our artefact repository, and show the health of a particular module as it goes through the product lifecycle. At the end, you can have a bill of materials in terms of software. This allows faster root cause analysis. Finally, could you please comment on what you see as the key megatrends shaping the automotive industry of the future, and how you are accommodating these in your product development? Mobility is changing because the population growth is accelerating. There is a trend of people moving into urban settings. The number of available roads in the world is not growing as fast as the number of cars. I do not see everyone adopting public transportation in a few years. It has values and strengths, but personal transportation is still highly desired. The migration is more towards smaller cars. The technology that drives the car will change as well. Instead of focusing on combustion technology, the market will focus on electric or hybrid technologies. A lot of alternative technology goes into smaller cars, so I see more personal transportation devices. All of these things require software.This is not only going into the car, but into the infrastructure, because the vehicle needs to communicate with both the driver and the road. CONNECTED VEHICLES
  24. 24. URIX™ –A SafURIX™ – PsJoinetySaf ancormferP eanc omotivAut e 32-borlticue Momotiv an gou cywNo atfler plloontrc e tlbe ablliw URIX™ wg AinsU ontrocrMicite 32-b ationlicpe apomotivour autyetan g URIX™ 32-bg the Ainsorm – uatf etyafain and strerwpoloontro ce t o acttefforssee lequirrlliURIX™ w erlloontr tsith juwloontrnder cusation lloontrocre micorlticmuitURIX™ 32-b inith one swsationlicpapety d tharandt-D se the ASILhievo ac orone mic - ouy,er orm.atfle pgl ith aan wd th ocLalicssalc elopmentdevetyafs e fmorswloal g the poeepink , thefg IPg IP, thefectint e.lModu pecsith itsW omertsue. Curecthitcep artskoc ame t30%. On the sybelopment erientufficand salitynctionue f e cglinumption on ssoner cwg the po idevoURIX™ praud Aand frt, thef, theft the persURIX™ iAe seturatefalipec wn their micdoutw can nocsomer ancormfo 100% peren, up tokame t equire rurutor fuffer fe bcsoure Whi.elever llloontrocre micore c ardw-in Harltuibdyaean alrside ain aptrerwor poh fcatmectfthe per erlloontrocrwn their mic sluurpe sanc ements,equir oe prlWhi - uritySecear alicpain ap - ludin(incstion eerintssh auc(s .infineon.cwww ehicvalectricbrid and elyg hludin dvag and ag, airbinakg, breerin xom/auri.infineon.c licpapetyafssalelwss) aelehic ems).tssyanttsisser aed drivancdv sation ems).
  25. 25. CONNECTED VEHICLES automotivemegatrends.com As far as the consumer is concerned, connected vehicles will significantly alter the driving experience. The blending of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communications, cloud connectivity and consumer electronics technology will make driving safer,but behind the scenes, increased connectivity must be matched with increased data security.This is a significant challenge for the industry’s engineering and business practices. Megatrends spoke to Shawn Slusser, Vice President, Automotive Business at Infineon Technologies Americas, about the challenge of ensuring safety and security, and how the rapidly developing connected car requires the industry to incorporate design for security into vehicle development. The connected car will enable many features, such as apps,content from the cloud,and the ability to update the software in the car. Autonomous driving features will utilise the ability to communicate with other vehicles and even roadside objects for safety. All of this connectivity introduces security risks, said Slusser.He also highlighted that Infineon, which supplies semiconductors for automotive electronics systems, has parallel expertise in the global market for smart card technology, the chips that provide security for payment cards, passports and other electronic ID, and other applications requiring protection of critical data. This perspective underlies advice on how the industry can protect against security threats as levels of connectivity increase. Battling the “Dark Side” Widespread connectivity to the Internet changed the computer industry in many ways, not least of which was individual and organisational exposure to security risks. Now the car is increasingly incorporating Internet capability, making it more vulnerable to outside threats. “New functionalities often harbour new risks, so what we can learn from the past, and from other industries, can undoubtedly apply to the car industry,” said Slusser. He noted the importance of distinguishing between two types of risk in the connected car. Safety risk refers to the danger of unintentional errors occurring in electronic systems.The industry is tackling this challenge through the well-developed concept of functional safety embodied in ISO 26262. Security,meanwhile,involves protecting against intentional attacks on systems and software. “These include tampering, theft, or data privacy, and are risky to the connected car.” Slusser describes intentional attacks as“Dark Side” scenarios, referring to the Star Wars films.“We have a job to fight against the Dark Side,” he said.“These risks should be a wake- up call to the industry that we need to address automotive security immediately.” While this may sound like Hollywood, university research teams (www.autosecure.org) have already documented successful attacks on car systems. In another incident reported earlier this year, two Spanish researchers described a device made for under US$20 that, after being wired in to the CAN bus of a car, would give an attacker the ability to remotely manipulate vital vehicle systems. Slusser noted that all automotive stakeholders need to be involved in developing the security systems that protect against intentional attacks. He said,“To solve these problems takes more than just OEMs and Tier 1s; it’s really a whole ecosystem problem. This will involve everyone from suppliers like us to our customers, to the OEMs, to insurers and regulatory bodies.All of the different stakeholders will have a role to play.” New functionalities, new risks: it’s time to secure the connected car Infineon’s Shawn Slusser tells Rachel Boagey about the urgent need to address the security of increasingly connected cars To meet requirements for security in automotive electronic control units, Infineon integrated a programmable hardware security module (HSM) into the AURIX microcontroller family, using Infineon-developed hardware-based encryption technology Megatrends | 25
  26. 26. What’s next? So what does this mean for the car industry? “It means there are some new requirements,” said Slusser.“In order for the benefits of connectivity to be enabled in the car, the industry has to incorporate security into the design process at the start of vehicle development.” Slusser described five major elements in electronic system security: secure memory to store password and certification information; cryptography capability; authentication to verify identity; an assured “root of trust;” and revocation capability that allows access to be denied.“These security elements will need to be included in future vehicle electrical architectures,” explained Slusser. “Specialised security hardware and software will be necessary.” Infineon’s expertise with the security technologies to protect digital information in the car comes from the company’s long participation in the smart card industry. “Smart card chips,which are really specialised microcontrollers dedicated to security functions, have been around since the 1980s and have been become very sophisticated and well-hardened against attacks,” explained Slusser.The next stage, he said, is to enable this type of security technology in automotive systems.“We have the essential elements of security technology figured out. As an industry, we now need to adapt this technology to the car.” This means that companies working on security, such as Infineon, need to figure out the level of security technology required for different automotive systems, and thus which ECUs in the car require targeted security features.“First you figure out what applications need security and to what level,” said Slusser. “Then the specialised hardware and software to address those needs can be implemented.” An important part of meeting security requirements is that developments must occur beyond the car. “You have to enable these security devices in the car and also in the ecosystem of automotive design,” he said. “Security practices have to become a part of the development cycle and ultimately embedded into the IT infrastructure of the industry in order to protect the secret keys associated with the hardware Root ofTrust.” OEMs therefore have to adopt a new development process to enable the components in their cars to be secure. Slusser said, “The typical automotive development programme today doesn’t consider electronics security, but it is has to be heavily considered in the near future.” Lagging behind To achieve security in the connected car, Slusser sees a need for new roles and new expertise.Returning to the StarWars theme, he suggested the industry could use, “someone like Yoda to fight the Dark Side.” He continued, “We need ‘Jedi Master’ security architects and engineers with security expertise. To create a ‘trusted environment’,changes in manufacturing need to happen to secure connected devices.” While the promise of the connected car marks a major change in personal transportation,its success relies in large part on how well the industry protects against the risks of the ‘Dark Side’ concluded Slusser. Today the automotive industry has considerable work to do to develop the necessary expertise for implementing security technology. To catch up, it must develop a robust security ecosystem that can adapt and build on smart card technology to make security an integral part of future vehicle architectures. automotivemegatrends.com ISO 26262 is intended to be applied to safety- related systems that include one or more electrical and/or electronic (E/E) systems and that are installed in series production passenger cars with a maximum gross vehicle mass up to 3 500 kg. The ten parts of ISO 26262: •Vocabulary •Management of functional safety •Concept phase •Product development at the system level •Product development at the hardware level •Product development at the software level •Production and operation •Supporting processes •Automotive Safety Integrity Level (ASIL)- oriented and safety-oriented analysis •Guideline on ISO 26262 ISO 26262 26 | Megatrends - Shawn Slusser, Vice President, Automotive Business, Infineon We need ‘Jedi Master’ security architects and engineers with security expertise. To create a ‘trusted environment’, changes in manufacturing need to happen to secure connected devices “ CONNECTED VEHICLES
  27. 27. CONNECTED VEHICLES Canadian software company Lixar has been gradually making its way into the automotive segment over the past three to four years, working with such big names as Delphi,Verizon and QNX. It specialises in aftermarket connected car products, with experience in building car-to-cloud enterprise strength systems and mobile iOS and Android applications for automotive use. Within the automotive space it has worked on vehicle diagnostics, geo-fencing, geo-location, mileage tracking, Bluetooth Key Fob connectivity,fleet management and automotive data analytics, with an ever widening array of projects. Megatrends asked Lixar’s Chief Executive,Bill Syrros and its Director of Innovation, Justin Moon, about the growth of the company’s automotive business and the key megatrends shaping its business strategy. From a mobile angle Lixar entered the automotive segment "through a mobile angle,” explained Syrros. “As a company we've focussed our efforts on mobile connected transportation technology."An initial partnership with QNX Systems led to other automotive projects, covering visual displays, mobile applications, cloud-based systems and data analytics. "Our interests are highly innovative and highly specialised development and technologies," commented Syrros. "And being able to say those words and connect them to automotive is sometimes hard to believe,given the cycles in the world of automotive." Entry to the automotive segment poses certain challenges for any new company,but particularly for software companies like Lixar. "Traditionally the automotive sector has been slow to move in terms of integrating new technology.The long cycles in which those technologies get integrated in the cars means that it is difficult to be successful for software companies like ours," said Syrros. However, the industry is evolving at a dramatic rate,and Syrros noted "We slowly see that those traditional ways of thinking are starting to change." Safety As Lixar has discovered, the move into the automotive segment automatically brings safety to the forefront. "At the end of the day, whatever we do in automotive, the safety aspect is the number one issue that people should be concerned with," stated Syrros. When it comes to connected cars, Lixar sees safety as the driving force. "When you hear the term 'connected car', many people see the advantages from an infotainment perspective, but Lixar is interested in developing technology that leads to a safer environment.As more technology is packed into vehicles, things like distraction really come into focus," said Syrros. Moon believes design is key to balancing the demand for new technology without compromising on safety. "It comes down to design and fundamentally understanding how to leverage that information," he said. "You'll see governing bodies push standards with regard to distraction which could potentially hinder innovation and technology moving forward. The idea of leveraging technology in a proper way, disseminating information in the proper way, will allow us further progression from a technological standpoint.At the same time, understanding how to interact with the data, we can further reduce distraction." The human factor Moon believes the key in moving forward will involve looking at how this data is leveraged, and specifically how it is leveraged in terms of the driver."One of the largest trends we're 28 | Megatrends automotivemegatrends.com In the connected future, you’ll need to be agile, says Lixar Megan Lampinen talks to Lixar's Bill Syrros and Justin Moon about the company’s transition into the automotive space and the trends driving its business strategy
  28. 28. CONNECTED VEHICLES going to start seeing moving forward is bringing the driver back into the conversation and the human factor," he said.This involves understanding how to leverage the data and do something relevant with it."Understanding when I need to deliver specific pieces of data, how I deliver it,which screen it goes to,how I interact with it... Understanding how to leverage that data not just from a Big Data environment, but how I as a human will interact with it," Moon explained. The movement towards this focus, Moon believes,is an inevitable one:"You're going to see more and more that this will become an 'in your face' and upfront trend moving forward. It has to. Just look at the vast amount of data that exists today in the current connected vehicles." Just the beginning Syrros believes the automotive industry is on the cusp of several dominant trends, which will all contribute to a dramatically changed interpretation of the car in the future: "Most of the presentations I've gone to lately address what the car of the future will look like in 2025. We're in 2014 and we're just starting to push out and do effective and measurable things today,but it's just the beginning." In just six to eight years, Syrros expects to see a significant difference in the design and appearance of mass market cars, with most of that difference stemming from the energy efficiency boom and connected vehicle booms. Safety, which he described as "that slow moving juggernaut", is also at work behind the scenes. "By 2020, the level of electronics in vehicles is going to be ten times greater than what you see today, if not a hundred times. It's going to be so much more significant in the future." The key for Lixar now is to place itself in the best position for moving forward. "We're pushing the envelope from aftermarket connectivity to OEM connectivity," explained Moon. "We're very much interested in how to create value that overarches that. Right now we are one of the largest aftermarket connectivity platforms. How do you transition the value from an aftermarket connectivity base? How do you maintain that consumer moving from an aftermarket device to a built-in device? We're starting to look at what that strategy looks like." Overall, Moon believes that most OEMs will try to migrate to some form of built-in solution. For those in the aftermarket solution space,the question becomes how to enhance value and increase the consumer base while transitioning technology. "There are all kinds of players trying to figure out that," said Moon. "We have to recognise that we're talking about a new paradigm in technology here. New talents are required," Moon added. "Agile companies are going to pave the way in that respect."With its muscles warmed up now through projects with QNX,Delphi and Verizon, Lixar is positioning itself for trailblazing work ahead. Megatrends | 29automotivemegatrends.com Bill Syrros, Chief Executive Justin Moon, Director of Innovation
  29. 29. ibm.com/software/data/bigdata/industry-auto.html when cars talk wh newh ta ac wh klta rsa newh d jnoyeb e bhd tnA anhendan inapomc mnorivne e rrs araC sudne ivitoomtue aht tsu h rtid wetaicosss atfienee b .ytilauqelciehvecan o pa ttas dihe tsn uas ce e cht—esruof cd ont anem fnf is oenid mlog gnilloe r napome ccnarusn. Iyrts af ds oisylane amit-laeh r g enivirr defae a sdivoro p ns al ales wa—flestr iae c tag dnirehta, gnoitamrof y aletarucce aron mas cei ciheom vrd fetcelloa cta sue cvorpm, iecneirepxg e o id tetcennos cecivey dn e dh, trevire dht tuoba a yksis rsessy a dnetxs eel ecivrer seomts evitoomtu. Ato i gnivire d h. Tduolc uloe vguh M WBh ItWi e tvorpmi e vsn uac er bevird d jnoyeb ome clcihev-ot-elcihes vih t sa atae dlcihef vs oemu s Bnoitadnuon FostaM W uccd ans asenilemie the t e tvorpmo ia ttae dlcihee v ale che tcnahn, eroivah sudne ivitoomtue aht tsu t ps iekan moitaatcinumom s traw collt aahs tdeept s hces tcitylana & Atag Di itoomrt pcudorf py ocaru tefad sny acneicfife ehe t fitnedd ins asecors pmi napome ccnarusn. Iyrts ceo rs trevirr doe flbissot p hr tehth ocao e” tklato “s t as crekaomtu, aygolonh .snoi d rn, asrotarepr oiehf ty ot eel. Fsmialt cneluduary f y aletarucce aron mas cei eviec ehh tguorh ezylanw aon n nas creliated r srotarept oe yksis rsessy a n mraeo lTTo l mniatofni atretnr eo n FostaW e amit-laer fos/com.mbitisiv,eron m cennor a cm oetsyt sne omtsus cgnirefft onemnia ro psln aas cnoitadnuon F zay hbraet nuobs atrele a ndi/aatdgib/aatd/erawtf .ecived detc d dn, amehr tot fsud jeziom d dehcirne eroe a mdivo s onoitidnod caos ruodraz lmth.otuay-rustnd r viehh tguorhd tereviled d uorhe tcneirepxg enivird d t fnempiuqg enioomr ls o s’elciher v noitacilpph agu .seruliat f
  30. 30. Megatrends | 31automotivemegatrends.com CONNECTED VEHICLES Megatrends asks key players in the development of connected vehicle technology to share their views on the role of Big Data. By Rachel Boagey Big Data – big opportunity or big problem?
  31. 31. automotivemegatrends.com CONNECTED VEHICLES The future connected car will be a powerful device in transmitting and providing data,and will be able to collect data from on-board diagnostics for analysis purposes. With this in mind, Big Data presents a huge opportunity for automotive companies to meet the demands of their more demanding, tech-savvy customers. According to Frost & Sullivan, Big Data will be worth US$122bn in the automotive industry by 2025; with 70-80% of cars expected to be connected,Big Data will have a key role to play. For large manufacturers,dealerships and fleet management businesses, however, all of a sudden a Big Data challenge has arisen, with many left wondering how this data should be stored, accessed and used. Why do we need Big Data? Every second, a telematics device will produce a data record including information such as date, time, speed, longitude, latitude, acceleration or deceleration, cumulative mileage and fuel consumption.These data sets can represent approximately 5MB to 15MB annually per customer.With a customer base of 100,000 vehicles, this represents more than 1 terabyte of data per year. Andreas Mai, Director Smart Connected Vehicles, Cisco, recently described Big Data as food for thought, inspiring OEMs to think outside the box of the usual use for data,and instead using data collected from the car in a more productive way, namely to generate cash.“Everyone wants to see the money,” he said. “The internet of cars will unlock US$1400 in benefits per year, per vehicle.” Aside from making money, however, Big Data offers many benefits to multiple parties, including drivers themselves. Mai explained, “Big Data has big benefits for vehicle users, allowing lower insurance premiums, lower operating costs, and ultimately creating savings.” Jamyn Edis, Founder and Chief Executive at connected car start-up company, Dash Labs, explained to Megatrends that through Big Data, live and dynamic information is able to re-price particular features if an OEM is charging too little or too much. He said,“Big Data, along with the connected car, has the ability to book your parking space before you leave home, and predict traffic jams.” Edis also explained that in the future, car buyers will be able to profile a car’s pricing from day one to find out if it has had any accidents or been involved in any illegal activity.“Most cars in the UK and the US have a digital footprint, it’s just a case of mining that data and figuring how to use it,” he explained. “If you compare cars with real estate, where there is an ability to create a history of every house since it went on the market, that’s what we might start to see with cars - more and more data transfer and lots of Big Data that will enable buyers to check out the car in detail.” Collaborate and benefit While some may be puzzling over data, and what to do with it, others are reaping the rewards of one of the main benefits of telematics data: improved customer experience.Through monitoring Big Data in cars,it becomes possible to reduce warranty costs, increase safety, and create a data sharing network between the dealer, customer, OEM and others. OEMs currently develop different approaches to reach their targets; yet Frost & Sullivan predicts that the “killer” OEMs will be those that can use predictive data analytics to effect a 1-3% reduction in warranty costs along with other important software and firmware over-the- air updates. Cosmin Laslau, Research Analyst in Energy Storage at Lux Research, spoke to Megatrends about the importance of the partnerships needed to develop the connected car.“These collaborations are very important. Continental will collaborate with IBM to enable vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) functionality: Continental anticipates sending detailed data from individual vehicles, like position, speed, and deceleration, which IBM will process efficiently its computing infrastructure expertise. The resulting aggregated and processed data will enable Continental and IBM to develop automotive automotivemegatrends.com 32 | Megatrends
  32. 32. CONNECTED VEHICLES grade products with a high degree of autonomous and anticipatory capability.” Storing the data Finding a place to store this data is currently a challenge for the industry,and transporting data from the car to the cloud is appearing as a viable option. But it would be naive to think that this method of collecting and sending data would not also bring with it a host of problems. Cisco’s Mai said,“The more connected cars are, the more data can be made use of and stored, but then congestion of airways becomes an issue. Offloading data and switching the ways a vehicle can connect to the cloud is mission critical.” Joe Speed is the Internet of Things Leader at the Linux Foundation.Speaking to Megatrends in his previous capacity as IoT Leader at IBM, Speed described the car as just one of the ‘things’ in the Internet of Things. He also described the connected car as a Big Data problem.“In an average car, there is between 1 and 5 gigabytes an hour of data produced,” he explained, “and when you consider that there are around 60 million cars manufactured each year, that is a lot of data.” Speed suggested that rather than discarding the data,OEMs can do interesting things with it,but the trick lies in finding a way to manage and store the data. “Http has no quality of service, is not reliable and not designed for wireless,” he said, noting that there must be a better way to manage car data. MQTT, the Message Queuing Telemetry Transport, is a messaging protocol of choice for the emergence of Big Data. It was developed by IBM, which took the decision to make the technology open source.“Half a dozen manufacturers are already building MQTT into their cars and trucks because it is military grade secure,” explained Speed. “The platform can currently connect 21 million vehicles per rack.” Vehicle management Sarwant Singh,Senior Partner,Frost & Sullivan, recently spoke to Megatrends in a webinar entitled “The Internet of cars part 1 – Big Data”.Another benefit of Big Data,highlighted by Singh,is the role it can play in warranty and vehicle management. “Some recent recalls could have been prevented or managed better,” said Singh,“as the manufacturers could have used Big Data to predict that a failure was happening or just used it for a much better management of recalls.” Singh also noted that Big Data is already being used today in other services, and suggested that the automotive industry could learn from industries such as aviation, where remote diagnostics are used to remotely manage and predict maintenance on aeroplanes. “This is something that can be adopted by the automotive industry to allow recalls to be better managed,” said Singh. A question of privacy Another challenge that Big Data brings is data security, which Mai described as a hot topic across the industry.He said,“There are tremendous amounts of security risks and threats in the connected vehicle space.” Dash Labs is launching a low-cost, easy-to- install device that analyses car and driver performance, allowing the driver the opportunity to drive more economically and safely. The app produced by Dash allows the supplier to collect consumer data,collecting diagnostic information from the vehicle’s computer via the on-board diagnostic reader.“We can pair this information with the sensors on your smartphone, and that can act as your GPS, compass, and barometer,” explained Edis. “Because we integrate with the social networks,we now know the demographics of the driver.We could find out from Facebook that the driver is a woman within this age bracket,and likes to do this online,with these friends.Whatever you can infer as a developer using Facebook or Twitter or Google+, that’s all stuff that’s helpful to us.” However, the question remains, are people going to be willing to take Big Data to as far as it is able to go? Speed mentioned that a generation divide undoubtedly exists when it comes to privacy concerns, and that young people seem alarmingly unconcerned about privacy. “I’m noticing people my age are very much privacy conscious but as long as young people are getting something of value, it doesn’t seem to be a big concern for them. Some of the concern we try to put into protecting personally-identifiable information is putting energy into the wrong parts of the problem.” The future connected car will undoubtedly be a data machine,collecting data from on-board diagnostics for analysis, in an aim to save the consumer money in their overall driving experience. The argument posed by Dash’s Edis suggests that a conventional family could benefit from Big Data monitoring their driving habits; the question is, are we really ready for our data to be mined in this way? Megatrends | 33automotivemegatrends.com
  33. 33. CONNECTED VEHICLES It’s an oft-cited anecdote, but it’s worth repeating:there are now more lines of code in a single vehicle than there were in the first rocket on the moon. As vehicle complexity increases, however, so do the challenges for both OEMs, and suppliers. The many millions of lines of code in a car – there could be tens of millions of lines of code in a single electronic control unit (ECU) – need to be carefully managed, and such complexity requires powerful multicore microprocessors.The myriad recalls just in the first half of 2014 highlight the need for the automotive industry to prove and guarantee system reliability – and that means secure software solutions. Green Hills Software is a large independent embedded software provider and has been involved with automotive industry Tier 1s, Tier 2s, and OEMs for over 20 years. The company focuses on a number of vertical markets, including automotive. As Dan Mender, the company’s Vice President of Business Development, explained to Megatrends, there is a movement towards ECU consolidation, which is evolving to include some autonomous driving functionality, and some legacy ECU software. “There’s a hypersensitivity to make sure systems can be validated and tested and support the level of reliability, availability and functionality that’s needed in the car,without failure.” OEMs and suppliers now need to be able to run a complex processor,adhere to stringent safety and security standards,and consolidate functions in a provable way.“We help OEMs with the idea of ECU consolidation, how the next generation of infotainment systems will be multifunctional, and how they can take advantage of that in a powerful ECU design, but in a safe and reliable way,” said Mender. “This allows them to consolidate functions in one box, increase reliability of the electronics, and reduce the cost. Having fewer individual ECUs in the system increases quality and reliability.” The evolution of in-vehicle infotainment (IVI) platforms There has been a movement towards open source software platforms like GENIVI, Android, Linux, or a combination of these. There may be the need to run two platforms in combination with more critical applications, and that presents yet more complexity.Green Hills does not develop infotainment stacks, like Linux or QNX,but provides the platform that runs them safely and securely, within the OEM and Tier 1’s platform. To support the evolution of IVI platforms,Green Hills delivers a scalable, flexible safety-certified platform allowing the OEM or Tier 1 to run whatever IVI infotainment stack they choose,explained Mender.“OEMs and Tier 1s are focused on a broad set of markets and customer requirements that can be driven by not only geographical aspects, but by different groups of individuals looking to purchase vehicles. Whether that is the digital natives or GenYs, they all have different things they’re looking for. One size does not fit all.” automotivemegatrends.com Increasing vehicle complexity requires secure software solutions Green Hills Software’s Dan Mender talks to Megatrends about consolidating ECUs to ensure secure software solutions. By Rachael Hogg 34 | Megatrends
  34. 34. CONNECTED VEHICLES However, while one size may not fit all, there does need to be a degree of flexibility.Green Hills provides an ASIL-qualified platform on which its customers can run any combination of guest operating systems they choose for infotainment. Mender said,“They may have a legacy infotainment platform,but want to add Android to bring in an app store environment, in a safe and reliable way.” The ability is needed to flexibly run the infotainment experience of choice based on geography, cost, and a targeted consumer group, such as Millenials. Different vehicle platforms, he said, will also offer different experiences, from entry level vehicles in the BRIC countries, to high-end vehicles sold in China, the US, and Europe. Autonomous driving and security The race to launch the first commercially available autonomous car has been on for years; most recently, Google released design details of a prototype of its first self-driving car. Although a fully autonomous vehicle is still years away,the level of driverless features such as self-parking and automatic braking are increasing. Around 90% of collisions on the road are due to driver error,and Mender believes that addressing that with autonomous technology will be valuable for generations. As vehicles become increasingly autonomous, and increasingly connected, there is a growing concern over safety and security.“We’re helping our customers with the highest levels of safety and security,” said Mender.“In some cases, that’s the ISO26262 standard, where it has the ASIL ratings, from ASIL-A to ASIL-D. Our software products have been qualified to the highest levels of ASIL.We can help our customers with design architectures and philosophies that are safe and secure.” To solve some upcoming performance challenges in the autonomous vehicle realm, it will be necessary to take advantage of the multicore processors available on the market, but that poses a safety challenge. Similarly, there are predictions that by 2020, there will be over 150 million vehicles connected to the Internet. Security surrounding that communication and connectivity may not have been ignored, but many agree that not enough focus has been placed on it. New vulnerabilities are being presented every day, said Mender.“One area we focus on is guaranteeing that information gets to where it needs to be, and is not compromised, hacked, or used in a malicious way. Our drive is to make sure the automotive industry isn’t putting its collective head in the sand and thinking no-one will hack cars.If we don’t do the right thing,it will be easy to capture transactions or steal data of the owner of the vehicle.” OEMs and suppliers need to consider data security at the beginning of their development,he added, rather than as an afterthought. As the automotive industry moves increasingly towards connected vehicles, the need is growing for understanding policies and architectural aspects to deliver systems that are both reliable and secure. With vehicles beginning to transmit and manage Big Data, discussions will be focused on the safety and security of systems to support the continuous and increasing growth in the number of lines of code. automotivemegatrends.com INTEGRITY Multivisor Secure Virtualization 3D GPU Ethernet USB CAN Wi-FiCPU Megatrends | 35 Infotainment Applications OpenGL Apps INTEGRITY Secure VM General Purpose Operating Systems Graphics Safety Applications VehicleBus InstrumentCluster Rear-viewCamera ADAS
  35. 35. With significant increases in the volume and complexity of in-car electronics, networking solutions that offer low-cost,high speed transmission and bandwidth are becoming ever more necessary. Ethernet bypasses traditional cabling for connectivity,allowing all vehicle components to connect with lighter and more effective wires, and enabling manufacturers to reduce connectivity costs by up to 80% and cabling weight by up to 30%. This also provides a cost-effective, scalable solution to the increasingly connected car. According to ABI Research, Ethernet penetration in new vehicles will grow from 1% in 2014 to 40% in 2020,quickly becoming the technology of choice for some of the biggest OEMs. Assisting connectivity where others can’t ‘Connected car’ is an umbrella term used to encompass many elements of in-car connectivity, but in reality, the phrase refers to everything made possible by an in-car LTE connection, from infotainment to assisted vehicle technology and full autonomy. There are currently as many as nine proprietary automotive networking specifications including LIN, CAN/CAN-FD, MOST and FlexRay. These standards offer relatively low bandwidth and performance compared to Ethernet, which enables an open, high- performance network for powering in-vehicle infotainment and ADAS, improving the ability to share data from a common source to the entire network. One of the main advantages of Ethernet is that is can run alongside standard vehicle cables used for other in-car networking technologies, and requires no extensive fitting procedure, saving cost. “The emergence of drive-by-wire, the explosion of in-vehicle sensors forADAS and automated driving, and the adoption of connected infotainment, poses new 36 | Megatrends automotivemegatrends.com the fast track to the connected car Ethernet cuts cabling cost and weight, increasing bandwidth and data transfer speeds. Rachel Boagey looks at the role of Ethernet in the development of connected and autonomous cars CONNECTED VEHICLES Ethernet:
  36. 36. CONNECTED VEHICLES challenges for in-vehicle networking technologies in terms of cost, bandwidth, cable harness weight, and complexity,” said ABI Research Vice President and Practice Director,Dominique Bonte.“Ethernet is now being considered as a replacement for legacy bus protocols such as MOST and FlexRay by car OEMs including BMW and Hyundai.” Megatrends spoke to Timothy Lau,Associate Product Line Director, Connected Car at Broadcom, who explained the benefits of in- car Ethernet to aid connectivity speeds. Lau said,“The technologies available today offer very low performance in terms of overall throughput or bandwidth for network applications. For instance, CAN and LIN bus only support up to 2Kbps bandwidth, and FlexRay can go up to 10Kbps. Ethernet supports up to 100Mbps.” To create a solution for existing in-car low- performance networks,Broadcom developed BroadR-Reach, an automotive-qualified Ethernet standard.This enables multiple in- vehicle systems to simultaneously access information over a single unshielded twisted pair cable. Lau explained, “BroadR-Reach is designed specifically to address the stringent requirements of the automotive industry, delivering a bandwidth of 100Mbps over an unshielded single twisted pair cable. By eliminating the need for expensive, cumbersome shielded cabling,manufacturers can significantly reduce connectivity costs.” Complex data requirements As the connected car develops, the vast amount of data generated undoubtedly requires improved processing techniques and technologies. According to Mario Mueller, BMW’sVice President of IT Infrastructure,in 2012, BMW had around one million connected cars on the road, generating over one million data requests daily.The company now has three million connected cars on the road, and beyond 2018, it expects to have 10 million connected cars generating over 100 million daily data requests,equivalent to 1TB of data every day. Sarwant Singh, Senior Partner, Frost & Sullivan recently discussed increasing data and the need for an improved coping method in anAutomotive Megatrends webinar entitled‘The Internet of Cars Part 1 – Big Data’. He said,“The fourth-generation BMW 7 Series uploads 81Mb of data in ten hours, but thanks to Ethernet, the fifth generation 7 Series takes 20 minutes to upload 1 gigabyte of data, showing just how effective this technology can be to manage the vast levels of data management required.” BMW sees the importance in taking the technology one step at a time to ensure reliability and use of Ethernet. A BMW ConnectedDrive spokesperson told Megatrends, “To introduce a new in-car networking technology is a major change for car manufacturers as it represents a crucial infrastructure for a vehicle’s smooth functioning. To ensure the best quality for customers, it is therefore advisable to start small, that is, to connect only the cameras to the optional surround view system electronic control unit (ECU) as in the X5, and extend to more models and electronic control units from there.” Autonomy – a strong case for automotive Ethernet Many OEMs are now focusing their research towards the autonomous vehicle, which requires organisation of millions of lines of data – a strong case for Ethernet inside the car. Lau said, “You need to be able to take data and send it very quickly to the ECU that is making decisions on what the car needs to do to react to that data.” Deployment of low-cost automotive Ethernet also means that high-end features such as infotainment andADAS features such as surround-view parking and lane departure warning can be deployed in a much broader range of vehicles, beyond just very high end models. BMW recently commercialised Ethernet for a 360-degree camera parking assist system based on Broadcom’s BroadR-Reach technology, the first OEM to use the technology in a vehicle.The car uses single- pair twisted wire, 100Mbps Ethernet to connect its driver-assistance cameras. A BMW spokesperson told Megatrends, “Ethernet-based in-car networking harmonises the communication concepts inside the car with communication concepts used outside the car. This makes it easier to integrate a car as a node into the worldwide communication network. Environmental information gathered from outside a car including other cars can thus be gathered more readily. Also, data rate limitations are fewer inside the car and real- time information exchange will be supported. However, already today autonomous driving is technically possible. The main challenges in the way of autonomous driving are more in juridical and customer acceptance domains.” While the industry has only witnessed the first applications of in-car Ethernet, it is the next logical step to consider Ethernet for other in-car applications. "Ethernet could be the catalyst for bringing the automotive industry a step closer to connected vehicles," says Frost & Sullivan Senior Research Analyst, Divya Krishnamurthy."With its capability to simplify the networking architecture, higher uptake rates are expected in the near future." The importance of standards Standardisation is essential to enable new, innovative in-vehicle applications, reducing time-to-market and ensuring availability, lifecycle, upgradability and interoperability. This will play a key role in establishing the Megatrends | 37automotivemegatrends.com Evolution of Network Bandwidth

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