AIT Austrian Institute of TechnologyDjordje PinterApplications, Limitations and Effects of Corporate ForesightMethods – To...
Corporate Foresight – Definition and Research ObjectivesCorporate foresight is a function (e.g. Slaughter 1998), process (...
Corporate Foresight and Innovation Management• Uncertainty avoidance• Identifying weak signals for disruptions• Identifyin...
Corporate Foresight and Innovation Management –Aligning ModelsScreening Interpretation& CreationResponseSCREENING &IDEA GE...
Corporate Foresight and Innovation Management –Evaluation Criteria51. Creativity:• Fostering ideas, visioning etc.2. Infor...
Corporate Foresight and Innovation Management –Methods Review I Anonymity of responses Controlled feedback Enhancing ca...
Corporate Foresight and Innovation Management –Methods Review II High information processingcapability (unbiased) Absorb...
Corporate Foresight and Innovation Management –Exemplified EvaluationRoadmappingScenarioDelphiSimulations012345Roadmapping...
Corporate Foresight and Innovation Management –Conclusion and SuggestionSCREENINGIDEA GENERATION& SELECTIONDEVELOPMENT& TE...
AIT Austrian Institute of Technologyyour ingenious partnerDjordje PinterAustrian Institute of TechnologyForesight & Policy...
In a Nutshell - an Analysis of Specific Corporate Foresight Methods from Innovation Management Perspective
In a Nutshell - an Analysis of Specific Corporate Foresight Methods from Innovation Management Perspective
In a Nutshell - an Analysis of Specific Corporate Foresight Methods from Innovation Management Perspective
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

In a Nutshell - an Analysis of Specific Corporate Foresight Methods from Innovation Management Perspective

549 views

Published on

The presentation is based on a literature review regarding some common foresight methods. Furthermore, an innovation management perspective is taken to analyze potential contributions of foresight methods, thereby considering also e.g. psychological biases.

Published in: Business, Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
549
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
21
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
18
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

In a Nutshell - an Analysis of Specific Corporate Foresight Methods from Innovation Management Perspective

  1. 1. AIT Austrian Institute of TechnologyDjordje PinterApplications, Limitations and Effects of Corporate ForesightMethods – Towards an Evaluation Framework forInnovation ManagementXXIV ISPIM Conference,Helsinki, Finland: 16-19 June 2013
  2. 2. Corporate Foresight – Definition and Research ObjectivesCorporate foresight is a function (e.g. Slaughter 1998), process (e.g. Reger2001) or capability (e.g. Major et al. 2001) enabling firms to adapt andinnovate by assessing weak signals using specific methods.Definition• Lacks a framework for evaluating methods (corporate setting)• Lacks consideration of human cognition and psychology• Lacks adaptation to innovation management stages2Research
  3. 3. Corporate Foresight and Innovation Management• Uncertainty avoidance• Identifying weak signals for disruptions• Identifying market developments and niche emergence• Improving portfolio management• Fostering creativity• Giving prospective and framing• Evaluating opportunities and solutions during earliest stages• Reinforcing learning processesBenefits for Innovation Management3
  4. 4. Corporate Foresight and Innovation Management –Aligning ModelsScreening Interpretation& CreationResponseSCREENING &IDEA GENERATIONSELECTIONDEVELOPMENT& TESTINGCOMMERCIALI-SATION & LAUNCHIdentification of customer needs,risks, new technologies &competitive intelligenceCommitment, internal& externalcommunicationEvaluation, options, solutions,adaption of existing projectsIdentification CommunicationLearningOrganizationallearningprocesses4
  5. 5. Corporate Foresight and Innovation Management –Evaluation Criteria51. Creativity:• Fostering ideas, visioning etc.2. Information processing capability:• Amount of variables, type of linkages, interactions etc.3. Complexity absorption:• Ability for technology assessment, capturing dynamics of systems etc.4. Execution:• Simplicity of execution, stimulation of learning, tacit to explicitknowledge transformation capability etc.5. Robustness and sensitivity:• Sensitivity to information input, sensitivity to cognition and groupbiases etc.6. Acceptance:• Degree of participation, communicability of results etc.
  6. 6. Corporate Foresight and Innovation Management –Methods Review I Anonymity of responses Controlled feedback Enhancing capabilities withcomplex problems reduces groupbiases, but still e.g. confirmationbiases Creativity is limited (“reinforcedideas“) Execution process: timeconsuming & discrete black box Information interplay is limited Room for creative interplay Improves decision-making Overcoming overconfidence andtunnel vision Easily communicable Suitable for long term analysis Several group and cognitionbiases in play Prone to influences Very limited informationprocessing capacityScenario Delphi6
  7. 7. Corporate Foresight and Innovation Management –Methods Review II High information processingcapability (unbiased) Absorb complexity and dynamics Transparency of mental models Enhances organizational learning Risk of resource intensity Trade-of: participation vs.execution Scepticism towards quantitativemodelling hinders acceptance Excellent possibility ofparticipation Acceptance of results Structures innovation processes Increases competitive power• Focus on execution Creative room is limited Linear relationship model(predominant) Limited information processingRoadmaps Simulations7
  8. 8. Corporate Foresight and Innovation Management –Exemplified EvaluationRoadmappingScenarioDelphiSimulations012345RoadmappingScenarioDelphiSimulations8
  9. 9. Corporate Foresight and Innovation Management –Conclusion and SuggestionSCREENINGIDEA GENERATION& SELECTIONDEVELOPMENT& TESTINGCOMMERCIALI-SATION & LAUNCHDelphi techniqueScenariosSimulationsRoadmapsotherother9Combining methods enhances potential benefits for innovation management
  10. 10. AIT Austrian Institute of Technologyyour ingenious partnerDjordje PinterAustrian Institute of TechnologyForesight & Policy DevelopmentDjordje.pinter.fl@ait.ac.at

×