The Cathedral and the Bazaar - musings on iPhone and Android
I discuss if the iphone is an unstoppable force and propose that entrepreneurs and developers consider the coming wave of handsets that are more open and "more betterer" for the public. Otherwise we face a lock-in of our own "early-adopter" creation.
Sorry I don't talk about the Palm, I've had many iterations since the Palm1000 but I don't think they can make it without Appstore, great developer community and/or awesome content. Its just a device and that is not enough now.
I’ve repurposed a famous thesis to explore what is emerging in the mobile space with the two contenders that are most likely to thrive, prosper and survive.Sorry to not cover extremely cool things like OpenMoko but I struggle to see the telcos supporting OpenMoko descendent at commercial volumes. (phreaking)The focus is not the vendor strategies but where developers and entrepreneurs need to be directing their attention for user experience diversity and richness of “fit for purpose”.Yet, entrepreneurs and developers are early adopters and the uptake of a closed environment (iPhone) seems counter to their normal values of openness, hack-ability and diversity. #bcs5
Apple is the supreme branding machine.Google marketing?….. *sigh*Android also relies on handset partners for promoting the platform, if anyone has seen the T-Mobile advertisements – there is no comparison to an iPhone TV spot.But this is the reality of a “bazaar” approach, a completely diverse and often crappy marketing and UX experience.
But whats with the high collars?Just sayin – that’s all.
Steve helps Lisa with her accidental debt to iTunes by permitting her to work it off.Shame on you Groening!
An unstoppable force?The truth is that there were 294million handsets shipped annually at the end Q4 2008Source: Strategy Analytics
Tumbleweeds blow by……“a few million handsets have been sold….” (I couldn’t find an accurate statistic in time for the talk)
The analysts are bullish – maybe smoking the good stuffBut really it take much to get 9x on current shipments, particularly if some handsets are at the lower end and supported by Carrier contracts.
Apple execute the Gladwell manual better than anybody else. They know what it takes to grab early adopters (like barcamp attendees)
So lets take a quick spin through Android handsets.
Here is a China originated handset that is a fraction of the price when purchased outright, may not be the coolest phone but a mass market device with full access to Android multi-tasking OS and App ecosystem.
New HTC handset already shipping
Due Q4 2009
So there will be plenty of diversity of many different grades, qualities and “fit” for target market. ODMs that have traditionally paid Microsoft a license fee for each Win Mobile get to save around $15 per handset by shipping Android.
There is no argument, the appstore has been a phenomenal success, but is it a wealth generator?Most Developers will be poor. iPhones are simply a new platform with a few extra sensors and true “always-on”/immediacy.
No breach of export license restrictions. Sometimes passes Appstore approval, sometimes rejected.
Applications can extend the capability of the browser or other published interfaces. Apps are still sandboxed.
Caveat Emptor: Statistics provided by The Onion!Not so much a “call to action” but a “call to think”. For entrepreneurs don’t chase the ball but build apps for” where the ball will be”. Build applications for not just the coolest monolithic ecosystem (the iphone you are carrying now) but for the coming array of less cool handsets that will help a lot of people in a more open ecosystem. Why support a lockin?
If you don’t like fruit markets….
How about a floating market, or a spice market?...the point is wonderful, chaotic, often-failing diversity is good.
The Cathedral and the Bazaar - musings on iPhone and Android
MUSINGS ON iPHONE AND ANDROID<br />A remix<br />David Jones<br />For BarCamp Sydney 5 #bcs5<br />Sorry, no OpenMoko, Maemo, Moblin, Blackberry or WinMobile<br />
Battle of 2 marketing powerhouses?<br />VS<br />
Tyranny of Coolat first you are unique…you stand out in the crowd<br />
Tyranny of CoolThen everyone gets into the act<br />So….Where Apple take you go next???<br /> More at the Top: 3GS<br /> More at the Bottom: $99 phone<br />1 million phones sold in 4 days<br /> Continue to hook user dependency on eco-system – only iTunes? (or PUSH)<br />
Appstore as revolution or sharecropping?<br />Incredible Innovation<br />ms-dos + download.com rolled into one<br />Micro-payments<br />InApp Payments<br />52K Apps, 23.4% are free, 67% cost less than $1 and 97% cost less than $10<br />Average App price $2.85<br />White Noise generator (just too many applications - a power law will apply to developer wealth – most developers will be poor)<br />Source: 148apps.biz<br />Developers get to be Sharecroppers<br />Apple Margin 30% per app<br />approximately US$45m to date<br />Not seeing too many retiring iPhone developers, Not seeing Exits in the startups<br />Apple Developer NDA<br />Approval Process (Average approval time 7.02 days over last 30 days)<br />Moral Approval Process (No Adult)<br />Credit Card Chargebacks (Developer repays ALL, Apple keeps the margin)<br />"Over the past two months, Apple has blocked our breakthrough video camera app, iVidCam, and our attempts to dialogue with them." A very upset iPhone developer, GP Apps, has gone public with its battle with Apple's legal department, and has informed the press (including NewsWireless). "undocumented API call” – one developer’s experience of Appstore approval process – Apple later release a competitive product (at a price)<br />
SafeAndSurf – rejected for protecting user passwords (AES 128 bit crypto)<br />
OS/App Extensibility<br />Giving the user better UX between the App and the OS<br />On the iPhone – how do I share a Web Page?.....I share the way apple wants me to share<br />On Android – I share the way I want to. (this screenshot is the “share” menu option on my Android browser)<br />
YOUR CHOICE(as developer, entrepreneur and consumer)“90% Of Waking Hours Spent Staring At Glowing Rectangles”The Onion<br />
The Magnificent Cathedral<br />To admire the magnificent architecture and live by the dogma?<br />As designed by the landlord/priests<br />You are granted individuality at the Application level<br />You need a 24 month contract to belong…<br />
Or the chaos and diversity of the bazaar<br />Do we buy our coffee from starbucks? (in Oz, no)<br />Still get Uniformity and Choice at Application Level<br />Bad and Great UX – but custom OS UX is possible<br />We will see Mediocre and Great Form-factors<br />Heterogeneous<br />Everyone can join:<br />Contracts<br />Pre-Paid SIMs<br />Wifi only<br />