Mapping and modelling climate change impacts: Flood hazard, vulnerability and community resilience.Climate Change and the...
Context<br />Environment Agency estimate that of the 5.2 million homes in England at risk of flooding.<br />Of these 2.8 m...
Context<br />Environment Agency estimate that of the 5.2 million homes in England at risk of flooding.<br />Of these 2.8 m...
Context<br />Environment Agency estimate that of the 5.2 million homes in England at risk of flooding.<br />Of these 2.8 m...
Context<br />Floods are a dynamic process that vary in time and space.<br />How does flood water behave in urban environme...
Cellular automata<br />Flood modelling capability has been developed using a Cellular Automata (CA) approach. <br />CA is ...
Flood modelling<br />CA is used to model floods by allowing water to migrate from one cell to its neighbours. <br />Water ...
Size of the cells in the grid is termed resolution/granularity.<br />Data has 1m cell size and so buildings and roads are ...
Coastal inundation<br />Simulates flood eventsfrom single or multiple breach points.<br />Model can simulate flood extent ...
Coastal inundation<br />Models provide basis for risk assessment. <br />Simulation of flood scenarios.<br />Low frequency ...
Surface water flooding<br />Cellular Automata (CA) based flood modelling for central Southsea. <br />Simulation of surface...
Fluvial flooding<br />Cellular Automata (CA) based flood modelling for Southampton.<br />Identifies areas of water accumul...
Vulnerability and community resilience<br />What is vulnerability ?<br />Can we define it?<br />Can we measure it?<br />ST...
Conceptual model of place vulnerability<br />
Social vulnerability<br />Selected list of social vulnerability variables that can be used.<br />Can these sources of ‘wea...
Vulnerability index derived by<br />combining the census data<br />associated with the indicators <br />mentioned above.<b...
Urban centre flooding<br />Result of 1.5m coastal flood<br />
Vulnerability and coastal flooding on <br />Canvey Island, Essex<br />
A<br />B<br />Adding road network you can assess how a 1.5m coastal flooding (A) and a 0.5m urban flash flood will affect ...
Route A: the B1014 – normally 7 minutes <br />Route B: the A130 – normally 10 minutes and 1 mile more<br />Predicting the ...
Summary<br />Models need to consider floods are dynamic systems subject to uncertainty <br />Model inputs such as rainfall...
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005 Mapping and modelling climate change impacts, vulnerable features and community resilience

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Presentation given by Drs Malcolm Whitworth and Robert Inkpen (Centre for Applied Geosciences, University of Portsmouth) at UPEN workshop - Climate change and the Solent: Opportunities and Vulnerabilities.

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005 Mapping and modelling climate change impacts, vulnerable features and community resilience

  1. 1. Mapping and modelling climate change impacts: Flood hazard, vulnerability and community resilience.Climate Change and the Solent: Vulnerabilities and Opportunities15 September 2011<br />Dr. Malcolm Whitworth, Dr Rob Inkpenand Dr Richard Teeuw<br />Centre for Applied Geosciences<br />
  2. 2. Context<br />Environment Agency estimate that of the 5.2 million homes in England at risk of flooding.<br />Of these 2.8 million are at risk due to surface water alone (55%)<br />Pitt Review, 2008<br />
  3. 3. Context<br />Environment Agency estimate that of the 5.2 million homes in England at risk of flooding.<br />Of these 2.8 million are at risk due to surface water alone (55%)<br />Flooding in urban areas is not only a key priority for UK cities but also for cities globally where 50% of global population now live in urban areas.<br />Pitt Review, 2008<br />
  4. 4. Context<br />Environment Agency estimate that of the 5.2 million homes in England at risk of flooding.<br />Of these 2.8 million are at risk due to surface water alone (55%)<br />Flooding in urban areas is not only a key priority for UK cities but also for cities globally where 50% of global population now live in urban areas.<br />Portsmouth city chosen as a research site due to its susceptibility to surface water and coastal flooding. <br />Pitt Review, 2008<br />
  5. 5. Context<br />Floods are a dynamic process that vary in time and space.<br />How does flood water behave in urban environments and how can we better predict it ?<br />What new tools and datasets are required in order to better model urban flows?<br />How can modelling be used to better prepare and manage flood events. <br />Pitt Review, 2008<br />
  6. 6. Cellular automata<br />Flood modelling capability has been developed using a Cellular Automata (CA) approach. <br />CA is based upon a grid structure (raster) composed of individual cells, where each cell has a neighbourhood. <br />A cell can communicate with its neighbours and change state according to simple rules. <br />Illustration of a cellular automata neighbourhood<br />
  7. 7. Flood modelling<br />CA is used to model floods by allowing water to migrate from one cell to its neighbours. <br />Water flow controlled by topography, which is defined using a LiDAR height dataset. <br />Illustration of how water propagates in a cellular automata model from seed cell to neighbouring cells during each iteration.<br />
  8. 8. Size of the cells in the grid is termed resolution/granularity.<br />Data has 1m cell size and so buildings and roads are visible. <br />Flood model will replicate water movement between buildings<br />LiDAR data of Portsmouth (from Channel Coast Observatory)<br />
  9. 9. Coastal inundation<br />Simulates flood eventsfrom single or multiple breach points.<br />Model can simulate flood extent and water depth during flood event. <br />Input parameters can be altered for sensitivity analysis. <br />Maximum flood extent model showing water depth (25,000 iterations of model)<br />
  10. 10. Coastal inundation<br />Models provide basis for risk assessment. <br />Simulation of flood scenarios.<br />Low frequency but high consequence event. <br />Maximum flood extent and associated flood risk (25,000 iterations of model)<br />
  11. 11. Surface water flooding<br />Cellular Automata (CA) based flood modelling for central Southsea. <br />Simulation of surface water flow in urban environments.<br />Identifies areas of water accumulation and provides basis for risk assessment. <br />Models provide an input for surface water management during flood events. <br />
  12. 12. Fluvial flooding<br />Cellular Automata (CA) based flood modelling for Southampton.<br />Identifies areas of water accumulation and provides basis for risk assessment. <br />
  13. 13. Vulnerability and community resilience<br />What is vulnerability ?<br />Can we define it?<br />Can we measure it?<br />STATIC<br />Population characteristics<br />Building characteristics<br />Physical networks/infrastructure<br />DYNAMIC<br />What people do and why they do it. <br />Can we model, can we predict, can we ‘nudge’?<br />
  14. 14. Conceptual model of place vulnerability<br />
  15. 15. Social vulnerability<br />Selected list of social vulnerability variables that can be used.<br />Can these sources of ‘weakness’ also be sources of strength in crisis? <br />
  16. 16.
  17. 17.
  18. 18. Vulnerability index derived by<br />combining the census data<br />associated with the indicators <br />mentioned above.<br />No standard set of indicators nor<br />a standard way to weight or <br />combine them<br />What is appropriate – place specific?<br />
  19. 19.
  20. 20. Urban centre flooding<br />Result of 1.5m coastal flood<br />
  21. 21.
  22. 22. Vulnerability and coastal flooding on <br />Canvey Island, Essex<br />
  23. 23. A<br />B<br />Adding road network you can assess how a 1.5m coastal flooding (A) and a 0.5m urban flash flood will affect the ability to evacuate differentparts of the island<br />
  24. 24. Route A: the B1014 – normally 7 minutes <br />Route B: the A130 – normally 10 minutes and 1 mile more<br />Predicting the impact of the ‘shadow’ effect<br />on the evacuation choices of a less vulnerable ward<br />
  25. 25. Summary<br />Models need to consider floods are dynamic systems subject to uncertainty <br />Model inputs such as rainfall location duration and extent.<br />Water outflow rates through drainage.<br />Role of open natural ground as water store and sinks.<br />Adaptation of urban areas to cope with increased water flows from climate change. <br />Streets used as catchment basins<br />Diversion of water to parkland/open ground for storage and infiltration.<br />Vulnerability both static and dynamic can be quantified at a variety of scales to aid prediction of likely impacts of climate change. <br />BUT people are predictably unpredictable !!<br />

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