2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)
Digital Trends for 2010 based around 4 themes including: Real-time, Won't believe the hype, Good cause/Cause Good and Developing a Playful Side. David J Carr, Digital Strategy Director, Chemistry Communications
But first a quick pinch
of salt... “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp. 1977 “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943“There’s no chance the “Computers in theiPhone is going to get future may weigh noany significant market more than 1.5 tons.”share. No chance.” Popular Mechanics, forecastingSteve Ballmer, MSFT CEO 2007 the march of science, 1949
So what is happening now?
re ta lking pe ople a ams, Lots of -time stre t... Real rch, abou e sea Re al-tim ectations. e exp Re al-tim wh y?
19% users no w say
er ser t vi of internet r e hey us are h Twitte ce to s s, e 27 pe .3 r day w a nnual ith an weets llion t n millio un r tweets or an oth emselv hers. of 10 b i bout th bout ot rate upd ates a dates a or to see up 40 ok Facebo illion a m a y from t es a d ience. s upda lus aud 800 statu t millio s upda nd IM U o n nth by es a m sers statu 350 m illion- p ults ine ad d M a il A ges of onl se Yahoo A 18 -24 who have u ated 2% r or upd +65 Twitte online s 4% a statu 55 – 64 5% 45 – 54 10% 20% 35 – 44 19% 25 – 34 18 –24Sources: Pew Internet And American Life Project, Facebook, Yahoo, Pingdom
e’ve never y me ans
w here’s aTech nolog are t hat t ow. ore aw ing nbeen m gs h appen ributing lot of thin vely cont actiAnd we’re
a digression ? No, it’s
not a joke. “The GScreen Spacebook was designed to help you get more done in a mobile environment” Maybe not... elp for d rome." ting h ibration syn?— Get "P the fe e g m v hanto hen you ans it w er you ling w only to find icity) , mobile all. (Neuropla st r More seriously, we’re looking to practicallyvibratin ated at integrate the increasing rne ver vib infomation overload into our lives via technology filters like Real-time search.
What is so different about
real-time search v. normal search? o Relevancy is important, but timeliness is the essential part. o It is getting an idea of what people are talking about or interested in now. o The potential is to combine: - on-the-spot peer reviews - recommendations - discovery - offers and time sensitive calls to action - social media connections/referrals - instant information updates. How are people already a re phat ic approaching real-time search? tw eets nal o Bing & Google are already integrating of the versatio lue" 0.55% are cono 4 .55% va long nal Twitter & Updates into their search results, ss ao 37 av e "pa promotio Yahoo is putting them on the homepage, even .7% h re self- o 8 5% a MSN linking Facebook, Twitter & Live. m o 5.8 5% are spas. o 3.7 % are new o “We don’t know enough about what kinds of BUT... o 3.6 queries people would issue against real-time data to know how monetizable it is.” Marissa Mayer, Google
Practical approaches to searchand other
real-time trends... Temporal cues in your search query determine the relevance of time and change the priority of your results e.g. If you search for “snow conditions at your favorite ski resort, you’ll find updates from other users who are there and sharing the latest and greatest information.” Real-time online collaboration o A Business benefit of the real-time trend. o Part of the shift from batch analytics and waterfall processes, to real-time analytics and agile processes. o Using Google Wave and add-ons like SAP’s Gravity. o Enable groups of people to collaborate on projects without the cost or infrastructure investment of a Sharepoint-type solution.Sources: Top 15 Technology trends for Enterprise Architects to watch, Forrester; Google
Real-time o Visible staff involvement
in problem resolution. o Reacting and responding to questions andcustomer issues quickly and transparently, #twelpforce: 13,000 queries in the first two months. service o Engaging in real human conversations.
NDLER TO RESPOND D HA
IN E AP AM PR CEO N OP TO RI N EC CORR T DEPA AT Tech IG HR Support TO EMASS E RT T EDIU M U RO EN T M 0800 000 000 Customer Marketing Service @Corp firstname.lastname@example.org DM @Someone Inquiry/ Immediate/ monitoring auto response & then hand-over aknowledgement Empowered @Someone decision-making, training & investment.
Over a month later the
SERP results for “Vodafone & Twitter” are dominated by the news story, not product information.Things happen inreal-time but canstick around for along time.
Brands stimulating andaggregating streams ofrelevant
conversationsand associated content.Platforms for entering and harnessing the dialogue that is already happening. * BRAND ND a DESTINATION NAT implied na lways t steps, FLA FLASH tinatio thout nex user” * Des nd wi “end- MICROSITE MIC e m finite ke the ter li a bit
Time sensitive offersdesigned for life-streamso
Integrated into real-time experience with a sense of NOW.o Urgency because traditional marketing campaigns(like TV progs) now can be filtered and time shifted(and even forgotten as our content collection piles up).NB: Facebook have changed the rules...again.
But value needs to be
long-termor we create “a community of jaded fans whoare only interested in the next coupon”. Peak of interest with a sharp fall.Time sensi sensitive offersddesigned for life-streams?? foo Integrated into real-time experience with a sense of NOW. real-time io Urgency because traditional marketing campaigns traditional(like TV progs) now can be filtered and time shifted n be(and even forgotten as our content collection piles up). ourNB: Facebook have changed the rules...again. the rules...again. he
“The next phase of media,
I’ve beenthinking, will be after the page andafter the site. Media can’t expect usto go to it all the time. Media has tocome to us. Media must insinuateitself into our streams.” Jeff Jarvis
Real-time eCommerceo As retailers move
closer to real-timeinventory management, it increasesthe possibility of more widespreaddynamic demand led pricing.o Consumers can be alerted aboutprice changes as they happen.o They can even group together tonegotiate bulk discounts.
What does it means for
the site owners? More time on site but fewer page views. Decreased server costs with fewer page refreshes and DB calls as sites move from polling to real-time push. Advertising analytics nightmare. 8 hours = 1 pageview but 100’s of opportunities to see an ad? How can you tell which story in the stream was read and which was missed?Source: Ted Roden New York Times
The e-commerce opportunity? Real-time insight.“a
clothing retailer could identify a spike in positive chat about acelebrity that is wearing one of their apparel items, and could immediatelyfeature that piece of clothing on their homepage and launch campaignsto a targeted audience interested in that celebrity and lifestyle. This allowsthe retailer to immediately maximize the new revenue opportunity, anddeliver more engaging, relevant content to its customer base.”
WHAT ABOUT THE REST OF
US? PubSubHubbub (PuSH) real-time syndication protocol. Publisher Hub SubscriberFASTER, COMPUTATIONALLY EFFICIENTAND A WAY FOR SMALL PUBLISHERS TOGET INTO GOOGLE RESULTS IN REAL-TIME.
If you tap into a
“live-stream” of first or second hand experiences and thoughts, how can control the flow and tell what is relevant? - c ontent ation of s onalis only what is tic per owingSeman and sh gf ilterin to you. vides a o r elevan t eb prows data tic w at all ream i s emanwork th cross “The s frame s t the st not the e tha ata is on eused a Re cogni and “d comm ared and r d ill da ta t. to be sh prise an 3C). st nsigh FUL , enter ries” (W ” or i NING n licatio bounda truth EA T ≠M ST M app O munit y RECE N y vocal d”. com MOST cked b ncerne et hija erly co D on’t g or “ov y m inorit
next next 6 12 5
11 4 10 now now 3 9 2 8 1 7 over? 6 over? 5 3 1 4 2The TiVo problem?Real-time risks focusing us too much on NOW and it is easy to miss things. What do wedo with the stream in the long-term? We can be easily everwhelmed by piles of forgottencontent from the day before yesterday. Real-time search tools are quick but don’t handleold results as well; while Google PageRank (link-based algorithms/citation analysis) is notnecessarily the best approach to capturing real-time (often as yet unlinked) data.
Behaviour & Role of brand.
“Be the vehicle at the heart of the relationship, an enabler (of services, content, utility, entertainment) and filter (of noise, relevance, need) for customers.”
Lots of people, saying lots
of differentthings, all expecting a response, now.They’re waiting. How do you deal withexpectation culture?
ntin g on com me
e even u like itTh ey’r ether yo r site wh t) or not.you enab led i (& have
CMO Customer Customer Customer listening
participation operations and design s , ignmer s s deee custo sinceure wh r bu ialiness stru t business pSoc bus w cted to s groua ne ne is con real-time fo cu ”.feedb ack d people es “like a og y, data an or PR, process g technol f digit al o nd co mbinin tmentalism ticipating a s, r r t No compa is about pa ning produc in g sig ad vertis ab out de s. arket in g is nce m experie es and servic Sources: David Armano, Dachis Group, Razorfish
a l create etc. wil
. l aunch ital reaction ction, g Every a s ible di tant and vi “publi c ins p develo esponse to o eeds t apid r outlet s. o PR ships” in r n ag e news rel ation s t ma n not ju s dia logue n isation n t orga in to clie ications and Integ rated un e? o e d comm v ice rolDomin as a c ombin tionship/ser la o’s Piz za any one? custo mer re
Real-time has only limited applicability
to someone sitting at a desk in front of a computer beyond news and dialogue, where is the real benefit? f sw itch of ing do n’t you do someth“Why and creen ?”your s ing instead or less b
Mobile Internet Outpaces Desktop Internet
Adoption Source: Mary Meeker, Morgan Stanley, “Economy + Internet Trends”, October 2009; Neilsen Global Mobile – Strategies for Growth iPhone + iTouch Users = 8x AOL Users 8 Quarters After Launch ~57MM 60 Mobile Internet Desktop Internet iPhone + iTouch Netscape* 50 Launched 6/07 Launched 12/94 Subscribers (MM) 40 ~25MM Mobile Internet 30 NTT docomo i-mode Launched 6/99 20 ~11MM Desktop Internet 10 AOL* ~7MM v 2.0 Launched 9/94 Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19 Quarters Since Launch iPhone + iTouch NTT docomo i-mode AOL Netscape187% increase in 18.3 million 65 million peoplemobile social network unique mobile social use Facebook on aaudience for YTD July ‘09. network users. mobile device.
Affordable contracts Higher speed, new
technologyRemoved cost uncertainty Location Based Services FLAT RATE BETTER PRICING NETWORKS Better choice Better GUIs, halo effect of iPhone BETTER HANDSETS Better choice Optimised for mobile, influence of Apps store & Market BETTER CONTENT
“The majority of the real-time
search boom will bein its convergence with another rapidly growingindustry, mobile computing.[Offering people] real-time recommendationsbased on your current location using anapplication that aggregates information fromreal-time searches as well as social sites likeYelp and Urban Spoon...... local advertisementsand “limited time” discounts on your mobile.”* Social Periphery *Rob Diana
Social Periphery & Mobile Social
Networks Local networks of Global Services Mobile & mixed media sensors and devices and Communities applications/tools Content & Context & relationships Location as filter as intelligence GPS, location Social Communities RFID & & bespoke networks & forumsNearField sensors Blogs, UGC Barcodes, QR codes & niche sites and markers Dynamic communication based on action and relevance (Ambient awareness/Social Peripheral Vision) Brands as the filter Physical objects On is off/Off is on and the enabler. in intelligent as physical and Ideas must be “good environments digital worlds fuse enough to share” Helping us plan for now and what’s next. by David J. Carr davidjcarr.wordpress.com Based on Nokia’s Mobile Gateway & Jyri Engestrom
From palm of your hand
socialfeed integration as standard, to 24hr location-based content streams and documentaries (The Grid),
a digression V S E
SU R SU R E Mobile computing, S V content AND context sets up new battle lines to define the future. VERSUS With And unexpected unexpected companies victims. playing catch-up.
What services and content can
we deliver at thecontent/context cross-section? Chain-wide localised, product-specific and cost effective marketing when the inventory in more than 70 Adidas Outlet Stores varies from store to store – and so do the special offers. Or Tesco porting its Clubcard to phones and starting to make them smarter.
a digression Pre-digital society: Closer,
less diverse discussion networks, more geographically clustered? >150 <150 (Dunbar’s number) >150 Number of Relationships Geographical proximity Geographical proximity Digitally-enabled society: More diverse discussion networks, more geographically spread? >150 <150 (Dunbar’s number) >150 Sources: Pew Internet And American Life Project, Number of Relationships Geographical proximity Geographical proximity
On is off/Off is on.
mobile phones to cars and tube From tickets, in a world of cheap, fast & always onWi-Fi, an unconnected device is unusual. More live interfaces with the real world.
“A year from now basically
everynew phone that’s sold will have[Near Field Communication].It’s a two-way, bio-directional RFIDcommunication link that makes thisdevice work as a tag or as a reader.” Sony Ericsson’s VP of systems architecture, Håkan Djuphammar
What influences do digital experiences
have on consumers? 65.3% report a digital experience changing their perception of a brand 97.1% report that the digital experience has influenced purchase 24% have produced digital content in order to enter a contestSource: Razorfish Feed
a digression ...or enabling live,
real-time responsive retail POS and outdoor. digital retail pos Sources: GMA Report 2009, ACNielsen “Actionable Shopper Insights” Only shopp 16% of ers use grocer lists. y70% oftheir p people roduc mat the t selec ake fixtur tion e.
o Audiences are mobile –
we need to widen digital touchpoints and become the enabler & filter for people, - Help them now and help them plan for what they are doing next.o To do this will require moving beyond a website-centricmodel to a distributed platform. - Enable customers to engage in the channel they prefer/have available and track them through fragmented journeys with a single identity - Serve only what’s relevant in current need state and locationo Customer feedback will be dynamic and real time – thecrowd will express what it wants through its behaviour aswell as communicating preferences and views. - An ‘open source’ approach should be considered, tailoring our propositions (function and content) to needs and feedback in real timeo Social CRM combining social listening tools with CRMsystems tied back to company data to track influencerfinancial value and help us respond to their needs faster.
o Customers will automatically connect
with people they havesomething in common with, experiences are logged andshared automatically, so we’ll need to only serve up relevantcontent for people to make better decisions. - Personalise and aggregate their offers and promotions as part of shopping experience, make it easier for them to share a good deal and not to miss out - Deal expiry alerts in their streams, use networks to share trackable offer codeso If everything is connected then there are increasedengagement opportunities: but we need to design accordinglyand appropriately.o Can we extend communications to packaging/POS givingthem a layer of digital information or utility?o The increase in digital noise for people will mean that ourbrand will have a key role to carry the relationship. - Hard to compete for share of attention - Human reaction to mask out noise - We need to help them by making sure all interactions and communications have the value exchange firmly in their favour
“Intensifying solvency concerns about a
number of the largest US-based and European financial institutions have pushed the global financial system to the brink of systemic meltdown.” Dominique Strauss-Kahn, International Monetary Fund 12 October 2008
Then this happened. UK total
weekly earnings growth: year on year % 8 7 6 Christmas bonuses disappeared 5 and wage growth turned 4 negative for 3 months as people “accepted reality”. 3 2 1 0 -1 Then a cautious level of -2 stability returned. The Chartered Institute of -3 Personnel & Development -4 revised its unemployment predicitons for 2010 from -5 3.2m to 2.8m -6 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: ONS
GDP Growth Forecasts even turned
positive…butled by the new powerhouses of China and India. Difference from 7/09 IMF Forecasts, 10/09 IMF Forecasts Country / Region 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2009E 2010E USA 2.0% 0.4% -2.7% 1.5% 0.3% 0.6% Euro zone 2.7 0.7 -4.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 Now UK 2.6 0.7 -4.4 -4.75 0.9 -0.2 0.7 China 13.0 9.0 8.5 9.0 1.0 0.5 India 9.4 7.3 5.4 6.4 0.0 -0.1 Russia 8.1 5.6 -7.5 1.5 -1.0 0.0 Brazil 5.7 5.1 -0.7 3.5 0.6 1.0 Developed Markets (1) 2.7 0.6 -3.4 1.3 0.4 0.7 Emerging Markets (2) 8.3 6.0 1.7 5.1 0.2 0.4 World 5.2 3.0 -1.1 3.1 0.3 0.6 Source: Mary Meeker, Morgan Stanley, “Economy + Internet Trends”, International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook (WEO) database, 10/09. Note: (1) IMF equivalent of “advanced economies”; (2) IMF equivalent of “emerging and developing economies”
We’re rebalancing. 10% UK Household
Saving Ratio 8 6 4 2 0 -2 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 “It has been a tremendous lesson 40% in how to live within your means and separate wants from needs.” are adding to emergency fund U.S Female, 47Secondly... Resource Interactive research interviews
a digression Source: Kelly Mooney,
Resource Interactive; JWT 2009It’s not all hairshirts and honest appraisals. of 18-29 year olds agree with the idea “My generation is being dealt an unfair blow because of this recession.”Even if it was often their parents borrowingmoney to fuel a Generation Y spending spree.
of technology can falter. Issues
of trust & dependancy with theEven the promises cloud. When Gmail went down in Feburary & September…Count the cost: 25m users, 33% affected; average of $50 per hour lost productivity, $415m per hour economic cost... “Whats driving usage on the network... are things like video, or audio that keeps playing around the clock. And so weve got to get to those customers and have them recognise that they need to change their pattern, or there will be other things that they are going to have to do to reduce their usage.” Ralph de la Vega, head of wireless at AT&T
#1 perim entati ess ex
money mea ow on and ns we 2er on our basiitcy must #livL tivrisk with a rly sh De . Crea sability, ys, cle omise s mus t alwa ingful and pr er on u efore e mea n first deliv ffers b les”. peopl value. tility and o whist while u lls and worth ny “be a
Coupon sites have been the
second-most-visited Source: Business Week, HitWise, Quidco/YouGov, BIGresearch and Resource Interactive, August 2009category on the Internet, behind job sites, for a year. eMarketer May, 2009 61% able to sca n wa nt to be bar co n othe m ation o d des an r acces s infor . s ’ price stores 9% e ellphon ed a c t us d abou e a frien . tm essag hopping to tex t while s ap roduc 34%an on li ie have looked e a w at le . ne rev urchase p st onc 6 s 2% rs l of UK consu re buy hoppe ties befo e t onlin ing. at k in g a ni be fore m a c ommu
Moms with teens said the
internet... Source: BIGresearch and Resource Interactive, August 2009Helped me save money through Helped me become a smarteraccess to easier price comparisons, shopper; product reviews andcoupons, and deal alerts. ratings, blogs and product information has helped me make more informed purchases..
For businesses this meanstrust and
transparency. 90% m io trust ns fro endat know. recom le they m Source: Neilsen, Trust in Advertising 2009 the peopIf people appear to beasking more questions,but less trusting 70% co r opinio nsume online. n trust s that are postedof advertising...
For businesses this meanstrust and
transparency....but this has forced 69% onten t! trust Source: Neilsen, Trust in Advertising 2009 c editorialsome brands to usetechnology and contentto start talking in aless hyberbolic, moretransparent and open,almost human way. 70% br and w ebsites ! trust
VISIBILITY Peak of Inflated Expectations
Plateau of Productivity Slope of Enlightenment Trough of Disillusionment Technology Trigger TIME Innovators Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority Laggards Source: Gartner’s Hype Cycle
Why do people really use
social networks? Flirt Teens AdultsPromote yourself or your work Make new business contacts Organise an event for a cause Make new friends Sources: Pew Internet And American Life Project, Tara Hunt Make plans with friends Stay in touch But w conne hat about cting 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 brand with s?
a digression Gurus sold a
future of people worshipping brands by “friending” them and having “conversations”. 15,740 Social m“ninja edia exper out s” & “ ts, “gu what ab super OK, but ing withTwitte stars” rus”, nds? r (+3.5 on connect x sinc e May !) bra
Phew, there it is.Have you
ever followed a brand on Twitter? Yes 25.50% Have you ever “friended” a brand on Facebook or MySpace? Yes 40.10% No74.50% No 59.90% Sources: Razorfish Feed ‘09, GigaTweet, Penn State, Performics5a m illion br Twitte er mo day on tions p en e m ntions and m illion r, 150 nth. 48% a who s ter did a of thos w a br researc n nd me h on e tionedbr and m n Twi t o . that brand
What is the primary reason
you follow a brand on Twitter? I am a current customer 23.5% Exclusive deals or offers 43.5%Other people I know are fans of the brand 6.3% Interesting or entertaining content 22.7% What is the primary reason you “friend” a brand? Service, support, or product news 3.5% I am a current customer 32.9% Other 0.4% Exclusive deals or offers 36.9% Other people I know are fans of the brand 6.2% Interesting or entertaining content 18.2% Service, support, or product news 5.0% Other 0.7%But why? Offers. So what can we do? Source: Razorfish Feed ‘09
Practice true customer-centric behaviour,integrated into
all business processes, nota silo or a channel, horizontal not vertical... 8 Signs of Customer-centric Behaviour • You send customers to • Your customers are doing things other websites. with your product you never dreamed and are posting videos. • You measure how many people refer their friends to you as • Active influencers are adding you as success (Net Promoter Score). friends on social networks. • When budgets get tightened, • You work with your competitors you tighten operational costs. towards better customer experiences for all. • Your only customer service policy is to do right by • You know you compete for your the customer. customers’ attention with everyone. Source: Tara Hunt
...and throughout the entire consumer
decision-making process. Increase in number of brands/solutions being considered. Attention paid to advertising, WOM & online research with information gathering keyStart with a shortlistof brands/solutions Active & Passive Loyalty Active Loyalty fuels advocacy but Passive is a larger audience On-going exposure Closure & the moment of decision Consumer builds expectations based on experience to inform their next decision journey Source: McKinsey
And yes, social program management
(execution) can be in the form of a campaign. Listen Understand Engage Measure, React & RespondListen to what the target Segment target into Create a relevant Engage via tribes’ is doing in the real web tribes, give them and interesting preferred platforms with and social arena something to join Social Object multiple interfaces Send Track results and Tribe 1 Tools, widgets Social networks optimise, monitor and & apps & personalised Social triage for react and content pages networks respond conversations Use paid for media to additionally stimulate and spread Enable, encourage and optimise Communities Send for sharing & forums Tribe 2 Videos & content Online ads, IM & promo links Mobile and video sharing sites Blogs, UGC & niche sites Tribe 3 Ideas & assets Websites & email As long as it is “good enough to share”.
100 social “agents” who reviewedFord’s
new Fiesta through Twitter,blogs, video, and events4.3 million YouTube views500,000+ Flickr views3 million+ Twitter impression50,000 interested potential customers,97% don’t own a Ford currently.
What is Crowdsourcing?“Crowdsourcing is a
neologism for the act oftaking tasks traditionally performed by anemployee or contractor, and outsourcing themto a group of people or community, through an“open call” to a large group of people (a crowd)asking for contributions...The term has becomepopular with businesses, authors, and journalistsas shorthand for the trend of leveraging themass collaboration enabled by Web 2.0technologies to achieve business goals.* *Definition Crowdsourced from Wikipedia
One view of crowdsourcing “success”.1
3Company has 2a problem. Company broadcasts Crowd asked to give solutions. 4 Crowd submits problem online. their solutions. 5 Crowd vets the solutions, 6 7 Company owns company gains advertising. Company rewards the winners and winning (and non-winning) 8 Company profits solutions. gains PR. from increased profile and IP. Source: Daren C. Brabham
“I find the term ‘crowdsourcing’
incredibly irritating. Anycompany that thinks it’s going to build a site by outsourcingall the work to its users not only disrespects the usersbut completely misunderstands what it should be doing.Your job is to provide a structure for your users tocollaborate, and that takes a lot of work.” “One of my rants is against the term ‘crowdsourcing’, which I think is a vile, vile way of looking at that world. This idea that a good business model is to get the public to do your work for free. That’s just crazy. It disrespects the people. It’s like youre trying to trick them into doing work for free.” Jimmy Wales, founder of Wikipedia
Collaborative Platforms... ...thrive when “reputation
(of participants) is a critical component of the service mechanism. The reputation of participants will derive from the quantity (how much, how often) and quality (how useful) of their contributions. Accreditation (of content) is provided by experts and by the community. Recent, relevant content regarded highly by participants with a good reputation becomes the most visible.” Made by Many