2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

David Carr
David CarrStrategy Director - Practice Development (International) at DigitasLBi
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[Part 1]
But first
                               a quick pinch of salt...
                                       “There is no reason anyone would
                                       want a computer in their home.”
                                       Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder
                                       of Digital Equipment Corp. 1977




                                             “I think there is a world market
                                                   for maybe five computers.”
                                               Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943




“There’s no chance the
                                                            “Computers in the
iPhone is going to get
                                                          future may weigh no
any significant market
                                                          more than 1.5 tons.”
share. No chance.”                                    Popular Mechanics, forecasting
Steve Ballmer, MSFT CEO 2007                              the march of science, 1949
2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)
#1




     (REAL)time

     now.   &   live.
#1




     (REAL)time

     now.   &   live.
So what is happening now?



                             re ta lking
                   pe ople a         ams,
           Lots of      -time
                               stre
              t... Real          rch,
          abou            e sea
               Re  al-tim ectations.
                       e exp
            Re al-tim




                                   wh
                                     y?
19%
    users no w say
             er ser
                    t
                    vi
                       of internet r
                             e
                     hey us are
                              h
                               Twitte
                      ce to s s,
                                e
                                                                            27
                                                                            pe
                                                                              .3
                                                                              r day
                                                                                    w
                                                                                              a nnual
                                                                                      ith an weets
                                                                                          llion t
                                                                                                     n
                                                                                               millio un
                                                                                                       r
                                                                                                        tweets



    or an oth           emselv hers.                                             of 10 b
                                                                                        i
               bout th bout ot                                              rate
     upd ates a dates a
     or to see up



                                                                                      40
                                                                                                                   ok
                                                                                                            Facebo
                                                                                                     illion          a
                                                                                                   m        a y from
                                                                                                    t es a d ience.
                                                                                             s upda lus aud

                            800
                             statu
                                           t
                                               millio

                                   s upda nd IM U
                                                   o
                                                     n
                                                    nth by
                                            es a m sers
                                                                                       statu
                                                                                       350 m
                                                                                              illion-
                                                                                                     p


                                                                                                                                  ults
                                                                                                                            ine ad d
                                     M a il A                                                                    ges of
                                                                                                                        onl        se
                             Yahoo                                                                             A
                                                                                                               18 -24
                                                                                                                      who   have u
                                                                                                                                ated
                                                                                                2%                     r or upd
                                                                                    +65                         Twitte online
                                                                                                                        s
                                                                                                     4%         a statu
                                                                                   55 – 64
                                                                                                          5%
                                                                                    45 – 54                         10%
                                                                                                                                         20%
                                                                                     35 – 44
                                                                                                                                     19%
                                                                                      25 – 34

                                                                                       18 –24


Sources: Pew Internet And American Life Project, Facebook, Yahoo, Pingdom
e’ve never
           y me ans w here’s a
Tech nolog    are t hat t    ow.
        ore aw         ing n
been m      gs h appen ributing
 lot of thin vely cont
           acti
And  we’re
People using technology to share
“live-streams”   what they do, buy, think, and watch




...creating more and more information.
       How are we dealing with it?
a digression



                                                                  ?
                                                            No, it’s not a joke.
                                                            “The GScreen
                                                            Spacebook was
                                                            designed to help you
                                                            get more done in a
                                                            mobile environment”

                                                            Maybe not...




                elp for         d rome."
         ting h ibration syn
?
—
     Get
      "P
   the fe
         e
          g
               m  v
        hanto hen you ans it
                              w er you
           ling w only to find icity)
                    ,
            mobile all. (Neuropla
                                  st
                                       r
                                           More seriously,
                                           we’re looking to practically
vibratin ated at                           integrate the increasing
            r
ne  ver vib                                infomation overload into our
                                           lives via technology filters like

                                           Real-time search.
What is so different about
                                         real-time search v. normal search?
                                          o Relevancy is important, but timeliness
                                          is the essential part.

                                                      o It is getting an idea of what people are
                                                      talking about or interested in now.



                                           o The potential is to combine:
                                              -    on-the-spot peer reviews
                                              -    recommendations
                                              -    discovery
                                              -    offers and time sensitive calls to action
                                              -    social media connections/referrals
                                              -    instant information updates.



                                         How are people already
                           a re phat
                                    ic   approaching real-time search?
                  tw eets nal             o Bing & Google are already integrating
          of the versatio lue"
   0.55% are con
o 4 .55%                      va
                        long nal
                                          Twitter & Updates into their search results,
                   ss a
o 37      av e "pa promotio               Yahoo is putting them on the homepage, even
    .7% h re self-
 o 8 5% a                                 MSN linking Facebook, Twitter & Live.
                    m
 o 5.8 5% are spas.
  o 3.7 % are new                                  o “We don’t know enough about what kinds of
                                          BUT...




  o 3.6                                            queries people would issue against real-time
                                                   data to know how monetizable it is.”
                                                   Marissa Mayer, Google
And people are exploring new(ish) tools
Mentionmap maps the topics
of conversation heating up in
 your social graph.
With new ways of converting
noise to knowledge.
Ellendale uses Freebase and
other information sources to
create a “semantic analysis of
the real-time web.”
Practical approaches to search
and other real-time trends...
  Temporal cues in your search query
  determine the relevance of time and
  change the priority of your results
  e.g. If you search for “snow conditions at your
  favorite ski resort, you’ll find updates from other
  users who are there and sharing the latest and
  greatest information.”



                                                                                  Real-time online collaboration
                                                                                  o A Business benefit of the real-time trend.
                                                                                  o Part of the shift from batch analytics
                                                                                  and waterfall processes, to real-time
                                                                                  analytics and agile processes.

                                                                                           o Using Google Wave and add-ons
                                                                                           like SAP’s Gravity.

                                                                                           o Enable groups of people to
                                                                                           collaborate on projects without the
                                                                                           cost or infrastructure investment
                                                                                           of a Sharepoint-type solution.




Sources: Top 15 Technology trends for Enterprise Architects to watch, Forrester; Google
Real-time   o Visible staff involvement in problem resolution.
            o Reacting and responding to questions and
customer    issues quickly and transparently, #twelpforce:
            13,000 queries in the first two months.

  service   o Engaging in real human conversations.
a digression




                  “Please hide/remove the
                 customer-service number.”

And yet        “Our requirement is the reduce
                  calls to the call-centre.”
               “We want people to self-serve.”
NDLER TO RESPOND
                 D HA                 IN
                E                        AP
              AM                           PR
                           CEO
             N




                                                                   OP
     TO




                                                                     RI
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                              CORR T DEPA




                                                                       AT
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             HR                                                Support
                           TO




                                                                         EM
ASS
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                        T




                                                                           EDIU
                                                       M
                    U
                  RO




                                                        EN
                                                          T




                                                                               M
                                                                                       0800 000 000
                                                                     Customer
 Marketing
                                                                      Service
                                     @Corp
                                                                                      someone@someone.com




                                                                                   DM @Someone
                          Inquiry/           Immediate/
                        monitoring           auto response &
                                             then hand-over
                                             aknowledgement




                                                         Empowered
                                @Someone
                                                         decision-making,
                                                         training & investment.
Over a month
                     later the SERP
                     results for
                     “Vodafone &
                     Twitter” are
                     dominated by
                     the news story,
                     not product
                     information.




Things happen in
real-time but can
stick around for a
long time.
Real-time dialogue
campaigns
Aggregating opinion
& newsworthy content
to improve coverage of
real time events.
2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)
2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)
Brands stimulating and
aggregating streams of
relevant conversations
and associated content.




Platforms for entering
 and harnessing the
    dialogue that is
  already happening.




                   *
       BRAND
           ND
                                                        a
    DESTINATION
         NAT                                    implied
                                       na lways t steps,
       FLA
       FLASH                    tinatio thout nex user”
                          * Des nd wi         “end-
     MICROSITE
     MIC                          e         m
                          finite ke the ter
                                 li
                           a bit
Time sensitive offers
designed for life-streams
o Integrated into real-time experience with a sense of NOW.
o Urgency because traditional marketing campaigns
(like TV progs) now can be filtered and time shifted
(and even forgotten as our content collection piles up).
NB: Facebook have changed the rules...again.
But value needs to be long-term
or we create “a community of jaded fans who
are only interested in the next coupon”.




                                                               Peak of interest
                                                              with a sharp fall.


Time sensi
     sensitive offers
d
designed for life-streams?
?
         fo
o Integrated into real-time experience with a sense of NOW.
                  real-time
                        i

o Urgency because traditional marketing campaigns
                  traditional
(like TV progs) now can be filtered and time shifted
                      n be
(and even forgotten as our content collection piles up).
                       our
NB: Facebook have changed the rules...again.
                          the rules...again.
                           he
“The next phase of media, I’ve been
thinking, will be after the page and
after the site. Media can’t expect us
to go to it all the time. Media has to
come to us. Media must insinuate
itself into our streams.”
                            Jeff Jarvis
Real-time
                                           eCommerce




o  As retailers move closer to real-time
inventory management, it increases
the possibility of more widespread
dynamic demand led pricing.

o  Consumers can be alerted about
price changes as they happen.

o They can even group together to
negotiate bulk discounts.
What does it means
 for the site owners?

                                   More time on site
                                   but fewer page views.




   Decreased server costs with
   fewer page refreshes and DB
   calls as sites move from
   polling to real-time push.

                                   Advertising analytics nightmare.
                                   8 hours = 1 pageview but 100’s
                                   of opportunities to see an ad?
                                   How can you tell which story in
                                   the stream was read and which
                                   was missed?

Source: Ted Roden New York Times
The e-commerce opportunity?
                                                              Real-time
                                                              insight.




“a clothing retailer could identify a spike in positive chat about a
celebrity that is wearing one of their apparel items, and could immediately
feature that piece of clothing on their homepage and launch campaigns
to a targeted audience interested in that celebrity and lifestyle. This allows
the retailer to immediately maximize the new revenue opportunity, and
deliver more engaging, relevant content to its customer base.”
WHAT ABOUT THE REST OF US?
            PubSubHubbub (PuSH)
            real-time syndication protocol.




                                  Publisher


                                  Hub


                                  Subscriber




FASTER, COMPUTATIONALLY EFFICIENT
AND A WAY FOR SMALL PUBLISHERS TO
GET INTO GOOGLE RESULTS IN REAL-TIME.
2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)
If you tap into a “live-stream” of first or
                                                 second hand experiences and thoughts,
                                                 how can control the flow and tell

                                                 what is relevant?




                                          -
                                 c ontent
                        ation of
                s onalis only what is
         tic per owing
Seman and sh
          g
f ilterin to you.                   vides
                                          a
                                   o
 r elevan
           t                eb prows data
                    tic w at all                                           ream i
                                                                                   s
           emanwork th cross
  “The s frame                                           s
                                                                  t the st not the
                                                          e tha ata is
          on            eused
                               a              Re cogni and “d
   comm ared and r               d               ill da
                                                        ta           t.
   to be  sh            prise an 3C).         st             nsigh                   FUL
                 , enter ries” (W                     ” or i                    NING
               n
        licatio bounda                         truth                         EA
                                                                T ≠M
                                                                        ST M
    app                                                               O
         munit
                y                                      RECE
                                                              N
                                                                            y vocal d”.
    com                                         MOST                cked b ncerne
                                                           et hija erly co
                                                D  on’t g or “ov
                                                            y
                                                 m  inorit
Source: Richard MacManus, RRW




Content is rapidly pushed down the stream by
4,000 articles/videos a day.
“Low quality”, high search visibility “farmed” content.
next                                       next
                              6                                         12
                              5                                         11
                              4                                         10
                                       now                                        now
                              3                                          9
                              2                                          8
                              1                                          7
                                      over?                              6       over?

                                                                         5
                                                                   3              1
                                                                         4 2

The TiVo problem?
Real-time risks focusing us too much on NOW and it is easy to miss things. What do we
do with the stream in the long-term? We can be easily everwhelmed by piles of forgotten
content from the day before yesterday. Real-time search tools are quick but don’t handle
old results as well; while Google PageRank (link-based algorithms/citation analysis) is not
necessarily the best approach to capturing real-time (often as yet unlinked) data.
Behaviour & Role of brand.



     “Be the vehicle at the heart
          of the relationship,
   an enabler (of services, content,
   utility, entertainment) and filter
       (of noise, relevance, need)
             for customers.”
Lots of people, saying lots of different
things, all expecting a response, now.
They’re waiting. How do you deal with

expectation culture?
ntin g on
              com  me
       e even           u like it
Th ey’r       ether yo
    r site wh
                    t) or not.
you       enab led i
 (& have
CMO




                                          Customer     Customer                       Customer
                                          listening   participation                   operations
                                                       and design




                         s       ,
                            ignmer
                  s s deee custo
           sinceure wh r
        bu
   ialiness stru t business p
Soc bus
  w           cted to      s grou
a ne               ne
           is con real-time fo
                                  cu          ”.
feedb  ack                           d  people
         es  “like a og y, data an or PR,
 process g technol           f digit
                                     al
                            o              nd
 co mbinin tmentalism ticipating a s,
             r               r               t
  No  compa is about pa ning produc
            in g            sig
  ad vertis        ab out de s.
     arket in g is         nce
   m               experie
          es and
   servic


                                                                Sources: David Armano, Dachis Group, Razorfish
a
                                                               l create
                                                      etc. wil          .
                                           l aunch ital reaction
                                    ction,             g
                           Every a           s ible di
                               tant  and vi                “publi
                                                                   c
                           ins                           p
                                                 develo esponse to
                                              o
                                      eeds t        apid r            outlet
                                                                             s.
                            o PR ships” in r
                                    n
                                                         ag e news
                            rel ation           s t ma n
                                        not ju                               s
                             dia logue                             n isation
                                                         n t orga
                                               in to clie ications and
                                Integ rated              un               e?
                              o              e d  comm          v ice rol
Domin                         as a c ombin tionship/ser
                                              la
     o’s Piz
             za any
                    one?       custo mer re
Real-time has only limited applicability
                                  to someone sitting at a desk in front of a
                                  computer beyond news and dialogue,
                                  where is the real benefit?




                           f
                 sw itch of ing
       do n’t you do someth
“Why           and
        creen         ?”
your s ing instead
       or
 less b
honest.
Mobile Internet Outpaces Desktop Internet Adoption




                                                                                                                       Source: Mary Meeker, Morgan Stanley, “Economy + Internet Trends”, October 2009; Neilsen Global Mobile – Strategies for Growth
                      iPhone + iTouch Users = 8x AOL Users 8 Quarters After Launch
                                                          ~57MM
                     60          Mobile Internet                      Desktop Internet
                                iPhone + iTouch                           Netscape*

                     50             Launched 6/07                      Launched 12/94
  Subscribers (MM)




                     40

                                                          ~25MM                                     Mobile Internet

                     30                                                                          NTT docomo i-mode
                                                                                                     Launched 6/99

                     20
                                                          ~11MM

                                                                                                    Desktop Internet
                     10
                                                                                                         AOL*
                                                          ~7MM                                  v 2.0 Launched 9/94

                          Q1   Q3        Q5         Q7       Q9     Q11      Q13      Q15     Q17       Q19
                                                         Quarters Since Launch
                               iPhone + iTouch           NTT docomo i-mode         AOL       Netscape



187%        increase in                                  18.3 million                       65 million people
mobile social network                                    unique mobile social               use Facebook on a
audience for YTD July ‘09.                               network users.                     mobile device.
Affordable contracts      Higher speed, new technology
Removed cost uncertainty      Location Based Services


      FLAT RATE                       BETTER
       PRICING                       NETWORKS



                                    Better choice
                           Better GUIs, halo effect of iPhone


                                       BETTER
                                      HANDSETS


                                     Better choice
                            Optimised for mobile, influence
                                of Apps store & Market


                                       BETTER
                                      CONTENT
“The majority of the real-time search boom will be
in its convergence with another rapidly growing
industry, mobile computing.

[Offering people] real-time recommendations
based on your current location using an
application that aggregates information from
real-time searches as well as social sites like
Yelp and Urban Spoon...... local advertisements
and “limited time” discounts on your mobile.”*




       Social Periphery
                                               *Rob Diana
Social Periphery &
    Mobile Social Networks
             Local networks of                                                                                                  Global Services
                                                                        Mobile & mixed media
            sensors and devices                                                                                                and Communities
                                                                         applications/tools
                                                                                                       Content &
                                                   Context &                                       relationships
                                                   Location as filter                             as intelligence

                                   GPS, location                                                                     Social                                     Communities
 RFID &                             & bespoke                                                                       networks                                      & forums
NearField                            sensors



                                                                                                                                       Blogs, UGC
              Barcodes, QR codes
                                                                                                                                      & niche sites
                 and markers

                                                                                      Dynamic communication
                                                                                      based on action and relevance
                                                                                      (Ambient awareness/Social Peripheral Vision)




                                                                          Brands as the filter
                               Physical objects                                                                     On is off/Off is on
                                                                           and the enabler.
                                 in intelligent                                                                      as physical and
                                                                         Ideas must be “good
                                environments                                                                        digital worlds fuse
                                                                           enough to share”


                                    Helping us plan for now and what’s next.
                                                                                                                                  by David J. Carr davidjcarr.wordpress.com
                                                                                                                                  Based on Nokia’s Mobile Gateway & Jyri Engestrom
From palm of your hand social
feed integration as standard,




                                   to 24hr location-based
                                     content streams and
                                documentaries (The Grid),
to third-wave mobile
applications and
hardware extensions
to monitor anything
from our finances to
our health and fitness.
And even extending to
e-readers and over
2 million iPads*.




                        *sold in 2 months
                        with 5,000 bespoke
                        Apps available already.
a digression




                                              V
                   S




                                              E
                SU




                                               R
                                                  SU
               R
               E
                      Mobile computing,




                                                    S
               V


                    content AND context
                   sets up new battle lines
                     to define the future.

                            VERSUS




       With                    And unexpected
 unexpected                         companies
    victims.                  playing catch-up.
What services and content can we deliver at the
content/context cross-section?




                        Chain-wide localised,
                        product-specific and cost
                        effective marketing when the
                        inventory in more than 70 Adidas
                        Outlet Stores varies from store to
                        store – and so do the special
                        offers. Or Tesco porting its
                        Clubcard to phones and starting
                        to make them smarter.
Even playful location-based social periphery tools.
Big brands and entertainment properties
     using the Foursquare platform.
2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)
Augmented reality
    moving beyond
marketing gimmick.
a digression




What do these tools mean
 for our relationships?
a digression




  Can we challenge 150?
a digression
                      Pre-digital society: Closer, less diverse discussion networks, more geographically clustered?
                              >150                                      <150 (Dunbar’s number)                            >150
    Number of Relationships




                                               Geographical proximity                            Geographical proximity




                      Digitally-enabled society: More diverse discussion networks, more geographically spread?
                              >150                                      <150 (Dunbar’s number)                            >150




                                                                                                                                 Sources: Pew Internet And American Life Project,
    Number of Relationships




                                               Geographical proximity                            Geographical proximity
a digression
Mobile & (REAL)time
     More timely information
        More connections
    More opportunities to meet
       up in the real world




More live experience
#1




     (REAL)time

     now.   &   live.
digital experiences we
participate in and use,
 experiences that break
out into the real world.

        What’s helping this happen?
On is off/Off is on.
     mobile phones to cars and tube
  From

 tickets, in a world of cheap, fast & always on
Wi-Fi, an unconnected device is unusual.
 More live interfaces with the

 real world.
“A year from now basically every
new phone that’s sold will have
[Near Field Communication].
It’s a two-way, bio-directional RFID
communication link that makes this
device work as a tag or as a reader.”
              Sony Ericsson’s VP of systems architecture,
                                     Håkan Djuphammar
B al ls?
a digression




                Ardui
                      no &
                Home
                     made
               hardw
                     are
               hackin
                      g
These sensors, technologies and devices are
   helping brands move from messaging to
 digitally-enabled, increasingly
   live, real-world experiences.
The shift to digital experiences enables
more shared “watercooler” moments...
...access to “exclusive” live events...
...and even the feeling
of live and unfiltered
brand engagement or
consumer control.
What influences do digital
    experiences have on consumers?

                                              65.3%                report a
                                              digital experience changing
                                               their perception of a brand


               97.1%                     report that
                          the digital experience
                         has influenced purchase


                                            24%           have produced
                                             digital content in order to
                                                   enter a contest
Source: Razorfish Feed
= Engagement


Engagement = Quantity or Time


Engagement = Depth & Quality
a digression




                         even
extends to changing marketing from pure comms to creating
useful, useable & delightful services/products
a digression


 ...or enabling live,
 real-time responsive
 retail POS and outdoor.
                      digital retail pos




                                           Sources: GMA Report 2009, ACNielsen “Actionable Shopper Insights”
 Only
 shopp
      16% of
       ers use     grocer
               lists.     y
70% of
their p       people
        roduc        m
at the        t selec ake
       fixtur        tion
              e.
#1




      (REAL)time

                         &
Real relationships and       Real, live experiences
 relevant information          and engagement
  at the speed of now.        beyond advertising.
What could




                   mean for
             our clients?
o Audiences are mobile – we need to widen digital touch
points and become the enabler & filter for people,
  - Help them now and help them plan for what they are doing next.




o To do this will require moving beyond a website-centric
model to a distributed platform.
  - Enable customers to engage in the channel they prefer/have available and track
  them through fragmented journeys with a single identity
  - Serve only what’s relevant in current need state and location




o Customer feedback will be dynamic and real time – the
crowd will express what it wants through its behaviour as
well as communicating preferences and views.
  - An ‘open source’ approach should be considered, tailoring our
  propositions (function and content) to needs and feedback in real time


o Social CRM combining social listening tools with CRM
systems tied back to company data to track influencer
financial value and help us respond to their needs faster.
o Customers will automatically connect with people they have
something in common with, experiences are logged and
shared automatically, so we’ll need to only serve up relevant
content for people to make better decisions.
  - Personalise and aggregate their offers and promotions as part of shopping
  experience, make it easier for them to share a good deal and not to miss out
  - Deal expiry alerts in their streams, use networks to share trackable offer codes


o If everything is connected then there are increased
engagement opportunities: but we need to design accordingly
and appropriately.


o Can we extend communications to packaging/POS giving
them a layer of digital information or utility?


o The increase in digital noise for people will mean that our
brand will have a key role to carry the relationship.
  - Hard to compete for share of attention
  - Human reaction to mask out noise
  - We need to help them by making sure all interactions and communications
  have the value exchange firmly in their favour
#2




                      &
     The sky didn’t        The trough isn’t
                          that disillusioning.
          f ll
          fall
#2




                      &
     The sky didn’t        The trough isn’t
                          that disillusioning.
          fall
“Intensifying solvency concerns about a number
 of the largest US-based and European financial
  institutions have pushed the global financial
  system to the brink of systemic meltdown.”
                                    Dominique Strauss-Kahn,
                                International Monetary Fund
                                            12 October 2008
'Spending cuts “could cause
strikes on scale of 1970s”
Daily Telegraph, 1 August




                            “Help ordinary people or we
                             face a summer of turmoil”
                                      Sunday Express, 1 March
Then this happened.
        UK total weekly earnings growth: year on year
  %
  8
  7
  6
                                                    Christmas bonuses disappeared
  5
                                                       and wage growth turned
  4                                                 negative for 3 months as people
                                                          “accepted reality”.
  3
  2
  1
  0
 -1                                                         Then a cautious level of
 -2                                                          stability returned. The
                                                             Chartered Institute of
 -3                                                        Personnel & Development
 -4                                                        revised its unemployment
                                                           predicitons for 2010 from
 -5                                                              3.2m to 2.8m
 -6
      2006            2007             2008             2009


                                                                            Source: ONS
GDP Growth Forecasts even turned positive…but
led by the new powerhouses of China and India.
                                                                                                                               Difference from 7/09
                                                                        IMF Forecasts, 10/09                                      IMF Forecasts
 Country / Region                2007                2008                 2009E                     2010E                      2009E                      2010E
 USA                                2.0%              0.4%                 -2.7%                       1.5%                       0.3%                       0.6%

 Euro zone                          2.7                0.7                 -4.2                        0.3                        0.6                        0.6
                                                                                       Now
 UK                                 2.6                0.7                 -4.4        -4.75           0.9                       -0.2                        0.7

 China                              13.0               9.0                  8.5                        9.0                        1.0                        0.5

 India                              9.4                7.3                  5.4                        6.4                        0.0                       -0.1

 Russia                             8.1                5.6                 -7.5                        1.5                       -1.0                        0.0

 Brazil                             5.7                5.1                 -0.7                        3.5                        0.6                        1.0

 Developed Markets (1)              2.7                0.6                 -3.4                        1.3                        0.4                        0.7

 Emerging Markets (2)               8.3                6.0                  1.7                        5.1                        0.2                        0.4

 World                              5.2                3.0                 -1.1                        3.1                        0.3                        0.6




          Source: Mary Meeker, Morgan Stanley, “Economy + Internet Trends”, International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook (WEO) database, 10/09.
                                                                         Note: (1) IMF equivalent of “advanced economies”; (2) IMF equivalent of “emerging and developing economies”
A competition to call
time on the plummet.
Even if we might still be
in the eye of the storm?




                     Uncertainty as we move into 2010 means
                 we’re looking backwards more than forward.
                   And it is recent history that is our anchor.
2009.
A year of
outrage...
...serious
money
worries...




$4 t rillion
    .75ttona)
(£2 a i n l
        tern               )
 The In y Fund (IMF
        ar               from
 Monet       of l osses
  es timate          ch.
          d it crun
  the cre
...global health
scares and...
...even a bit
of euphoria.
          (remember that?)




But one year on and both
the hype and honeymoon
are fading memories.


How have we changed?
Firstly...
                  1. Denial
                 2. Anger
              3. Bargaining
             4. Depression
        5. Acceptance


                              Source: Kübler-Ross model
We’re rebalancing.
                                                                                10%
     UK Household Saving Ratio

                                                                                8


                                                                                6


                                                                                4



                                                                                2


                                                                                0


                                                                                -2
    2004       2005        2006       2007       2008           2009


                                              “It has been a tremendous lesson
                            40%               in how to live within your means
                                             and separate wants from needs.”
                            are adding to
                            emergency fund                                U.S Female, 47
Secondly...                                     Resource Interactive research interviews
“90% of the U.S. respondents said
that their households had reduced
spending as a result of the recession.




                        McKinsey Quarterly, March 2009
a digression                 Source: Kelly Mooney, Resource Interactive; JWT 2009




It’s not all hairshirts and honest appraisals.
                       of 18-29 year olds agree with
                       the idea “My generation is
                       being dealt an unfair blow
                       because of this recession.”




Even if it was often their parents borrowing
money to fuel a Generation Y spending spree.
The nineties and the noughties promised us that everything would be


                                                                           NASA




                                             Kanye “I’m gonna let you finish” West
Now we won’t believe the hype or the promises,



      Madoff




because we know you have pay for it eventually.
of technology can falter.
                                          Issues of trust & dependancy with the
Even the promises                         cloud. When Gmail went down in
                                          Feburary & September…Count the cost:

                                          25m users, 33% affected; average of
                                          $50 per hour lost productivity,
                                          $415m per hour economic cost...
                                          “What's driving usage on the network...
                                          are things like video, or audio that keeps
                                          playing around the clock. And so we've
                                          got to get to those customers and have
                                          them recognise that they need to change
                                          their pattern, or there will be other
                                          things that they are going to have to
                                          do to reduce their usage.”
                                                               Ralph de la Vega, head of wireless at AT&T
But equally we won’t believe




                         because that didn’t come true either.
So, thirdly.




               We’ve changed our perspective
                     to a more realistic view.
#1       perim
               entati
  ess ex money mea ow
                        on and
                          ns we      2er on our basiitcy must
                                  #liv
L                                               tiv
risk  with           a rly sh     De
                                              . Crea sability,
             ys, cle                 omise
                                            s
 mus  t alwa ingful and           pr            er on u efore
        e mea
              n                    first deliv     ffers b les”.
 peopl         value.                tility and o     whist
         while                     u
                                             lls and
  worth                               ny “be
                                    a
Coupon sites have been the second-most-visited




                                                                                                 Source: Business Week, HitWise, Quidco/YouGov, BIGresearch and Resource Interactive, August 2009
category on the Internet, behind job sites, for a year.
                                      eMarketer May, 2009




                                                            61%
                                                            able to sca
                                                                        n
                                                                                wa nt to be
                                                                          bar co n othe
                                                                          m  ation
                                                                                   o
                                                                                         d
                                                                                  des an r

                                                            acces s infor .
                                                                           s
                                                                   ’ price
                                                             stores




                                                            9%
                                                                                           e
                                                                                   ellphon
                                                                            ed a c           t
                                                                         us           d abou
                                                                            e a frien .
                                                                   tm essag hopping
                                                            to tex    t while
                                                                              s
                                                            ap  roduc




      34%an on
               li
                         ie
                           have looked e
                                  a
                           w at le .
                  ne rev urchase
                           p
                                    st onc
                                                               6
                                                               s
                                                                2%   rs
                                                                              l
                                                                                 of UK
                                                                         consu re buy
                                                                hoppe ties befo
                                                                                      e
                                                                               t onlin ing.
      at          k in g a                                            ni
      be fore m
                a
                                                               c ommu
Moms with teens said the internet...




                                                                       Source: BIGresearch and Resource Interactive, August 2009
Helped me save money through          Helped me become a smarter
access to easier price comparisons,   shopper; product reviews and
coupons, and deal alerts.             ratings, blogs and product
                                      information has helped me make
                                      more informed purchases..
Source: Mintel




Half
of British consumers now buy on promotion
but it is not all about money off and discounts,
                it’s about value.
includes help with making purchase decisions
and rediscovering lost skills so you don’t have
to pay someone else to do it.
For businesses this means
trust and transparency.


                         90%   m
                                     io
                                         trust
                                       ns fro
                                endat know.
                         recom le they
                                             m




                                                    Source: Neilsen, Trust in Advertising 2009
                         the peop




If people appear to be
asking more questions,
but less trusting
                         70%
                         co
                                 r opinio
                           nsume online.
                                         n
                                          trust
                                           s that

                         are posted
of advertising...
For businesses this means
trust and transparency.



...but this has forced   69%        onten
                                         t!
                                              trust




                                                      Source: Neilsen, Trust in Advertising 2009
                                   c
                         editorial
some brands to use
technology and content
to start talking in a
less hyberbolic, more
transparent and open,
almost human way.
                         70%
                         br and w
                                 ebsites
                                        !
                                              trust
A new realism about
technology and its effects.
#2




                      &
     The sky didn’t        The trough isn’t
                          that disillusioning.
          f ll
          fall
VISIBILITY



                        Peak of Inflated Expectations




                                                                      Plateau of Productivity




                                                        Slope of Enlightenment




                                     Trough of Disillusionment



         Technology Trigger

                                                                                                                       TIME
      Innovators    Early Adopters                 Early Majority        Late Majority          Laggards




                                                                                                       Source: Gartner’s Hype Cycle
2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)
“Label it and you can sell it.”
                        - Anonymous




               Remember “New Media”?
The legacies
of revolutions are
sometimes more
interesting and
longer lasting.
Just as
     Creativity



     Social Media
2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)
“It’s real people having
real conversations about
 real objects and ideas.”
Why do people really use social networks?

                           Flirt
                                                                          Teens
                                                                          Adults
Promote yourself or your work


  Make new business contacts


 Organise an event for a cause


             Make new friends




                                                                                        Sources: Pew Internet And American Life Project, Tara Hunt
      Make plans with friends


                   Stay in touch
 But w
 conne hat about
      cting                        0   10   20   30   40   50   60   70   80   90 100
 brand      with

               s?
a digression
                          Gurus sold a future of people
                      worshipping brands by “friending”
                      them and having “conversations”.




 15,740
 Social
        m
“ninja edia exper                                          out
      s” & “        ts, “gu                        what ab
            super                         OK, but ing with
Twitte            stars” rus”,
                                              nds?
      r (+3.5             on              connect
             x sinc
                   e May
                          !)              bra
Phew, there it is.
Have you ever followed
 a brand on Twitter?
                       Yes
                      25.50%     Have you ever “friended” a brand
                                    on Facebook or MySpace?


                                                                Yes
                                                               40.10%


 No
74.50%                            No
                                 59.90%




                                                                         Sources: Razorfish Feed ‘09, GigaTweet, Penn State, Performics
5
a
     m illion
              br
          Twitte er mo
  day on tions p
         en
                       e
                       m
                        ntions
                 and m illion
                 r, 150 nth.
                                          48%  a
                                          who s ter did
                                                       a
                                                            of thos

                                                w a br researc
                                                               n
                                                         nd me h on
                                                                   e
                                                                tioned

br and m                                   n Twi
                                                 t
                                          o          .
                                          that brand
What is the primary reason
              you follow a brand on Twitter?

                 I am a current customer                  23.5%


               Exclusive deals or offers                                43.5%


Other people I know are fans of the brand      6.3%


      Interesting or entertaining content                 22.7%
                                                                              What is the primary reason
                                                                                you “friend” a brand?
       Service, support, or product news      3.5%

                                                                       I am a current customer                            32.9%
                                   Other    0.4%

                                                                     Exclusive deals or offers                                36.9%


                                                      Other people I know are fans of the brand      6.2%


                                                            Interesting or entertaining content             18.2%


                                                             Service, support, or product news       5.0%


                                                                                         Other    0.7%




But why? Offers. So what can we do?
                                                                                                                    Source: Razorfish Feed ‘09
BRAND




THEIR
2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)
Get out of their way.




            Their networks route around
             censorship, gaps or blocks.
            “People’s lives don’t revolve around your
                    brand, they revolve around life.”
                                            Mike Arauz
2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)
Design our brands &
services for desire paths.
Enable our commercial
relationships in the context
of their real relationships.
Practice true customer-centric behaviour,
integrated into all business processes, not
a silo or a channel, horizontal not vertical...

  8 Signs of Customer-centric Behaviour
   • You send customers to          • Your customers are doing things
   other websites.                  with your product you never
                                    dreamed and are posting videos.
   • You measure how many people
   refer their friends to you as    • Active influencers are adding you as
   success (Net Promoter Score).    friends on social networks.

   • When budgets get tightened,    • You work with your competitors
   you tighten operational costs.   towards better customer
                                    experiences for all.
   • Your only customer service
   policy is to do right by         • You know you compete for your
   the customer.                    customers’ attention with everyone.




                                                                             Source: Tara Hunt
...and throughout the entire
 consumer decision-making process.
                             Increase in number of brands/solutions
                               being considered. Attention paid to
                               advertising, WOM & online research
                                 with information gathering key




Start with a shortlist
of brands/solutions


                                      Active & Passive Loyalty
                                 Active Loyalty fuels advocacy but
                                   Passive is a larger audience
 On-going
 exposure
                                                                              Closure & the
                                                                               moment of
                                                                                decision




                            Consumer builds expectations based on
                         experience to inform their next decision journey

                                                                            Source: McKinsey
Social          Social
  program         program
development     integration
   (strategy)     (operations)




  Social      Social
 program     program
management measurement
  (execution)     (analysis)
And yes, social program management
   (execution) can be in the form of a campaign.

        Listen                              Understand                                                                 Engage                                               Measure, React & Respond

Listen to what the target   Segment target into          Create a relevant      Engage via tribes’
 is doing in the real web    tribes, give them            and interesting    preferred platforms with
     and social arena        something to join             Social Object        multiple interfaces




                                                                                                 Send




                                                                                                                                                                                  Track results and
                                  Tribe 1                 Tools, widgets        Social networks                                                                                optimise, monitor and
                                                             & apps             & personalised                           Social                                                  triage for react and
                                                                                 content pages                          networks                                               respond conversations
                                                                                                                                                      Use paid for media
                                                                                                                                                        to additionally
                                                                                                                                                     stimulate and spread


                                                                                                           Enable,
                                                                                                         encourage
                                                                                                        and optimise                   Communities
                                                                                          Send           for sharing                     & forums
                                  Tribe 2                Videos & content                                                                               Online ads, IM
                                                                                                                                                        & promo links
                                                                                Mobile and video
                                                                                 sharing sites



                                                                                                                        Blogs, UGC
                                                                                                                       & niche sites




                                  Tribe 3                 Ideas & assets        Websites & email




  As long as it is “good enough to share”.
100 social “agents” who reviewed
Ford’s new Fiesta through Twitter,
blogs, video, and events
4.3 million YouTube views
500,000+ Flickr views
3 million+ Twitter impression
50,000 interested potential customers,
97% don’t own a Ford currently.
2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)
2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)
What is Crowdsourcing?
“Crowdsourcing is a neologism for the act of
taking tasks traditionally performed by an
employee or contractor, and outsourcing them
to a group of people or community, through an
“open call” to a large group of people (a crowd)
asking for contributions...The term has become
popular with businesses, authors, and journalists
as shorthand for the trend of leveraging the
mass collaboration enabled by Web 2.0
technologies to achieve business goals.*


                                *Definition Crowdsourced from Wikipedia
One view of crowdsourcing “success”.


1                                         3
Company has           2
a problem.            Company
                      broadcasts
                                          Crowd asked to
                                          give solutions.       4
                                                                Crowd submits
                      problem online.
                                                                their solutions.




     5
     Crowd vets
     the solutions,         6                    7
                                                 Company owns
     company gains
     advertising.
                            Company
                            rewards the
                            winners and
                                                 winning (and
                                                 non-winning)      8
                                                                   Company profits
                                                 solutions.
                            gains PR.                              from increased
                                                                   profile and IP.




                                                                   Source: Daren C. Brabham
2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)
2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)
More sites,
more crowds,
more competitions,
more innovation?
Problem broadcast to an
increasing number of people




    Problem broadcast to an
increasing number of people




                               The crowd without the
                              expertise or the answer.

                                 Individuals with the
                              expertise & the answer.
But Wikipedia is crowdsourcing
         and that works great?
a digression




               “The Trouble with of
               Crowdsourcing”
               How do you keep a
               secret when someone’s
               life depends on it?
“I find the term ‘crowdsourcing’ incredibly irritating. Any
company that thinks it’s going to build a site by outsourcing
all the work to its users not only disrespects the users
but completely misunderstands what it should be doing.
Your job is to provide a structure for your users to
collaborate, and that takes a lot of work.”




     “One of my rants is against the term ‘crowdsourcing’, which I
     think is a vile, vile way of looking at that world. This idea
     that a good business model is to get the public to do your
     work for free. That’s just crazy. It disrespects the people. It’s
     like you're trying to trick them into doing work for free.”
                                Jimmy Wales, founder of Wikipedia
Wikipedia is not a crowd, it is “a community…
a dedicated group of a few hundred volunteers.”




                     A platform for collaboration...
Collaborative Platforms...
 ...thrive when “reputation (of participants) is a
 critical component of the service mechanism.
 The reputation of participants will derive from
 the quantity (how much, how often) and quality
 (how useful) of their contributions.
 Accreditation (of content) is provided by
 experts and by the community. Recent,
 relevant content regarded highly by
 participants with a good reputation
 becomes the most visible.”
                                        Made by Many
Be an advocate of   them
                       , so they become advocates of   you
                                                         .
These “crowdsourcing” platforms can engage fans or
create fans through discussion or consumer collaboration

but people can
see through
manipulation.
(and yet another photo upload competition.)
Crowdsourcing support
and marketing in return
for low prices.
Crowdsourcing where a
Streetview car can’t go.
low prices.
Channeling your global fans’
passion to be part of something
    larger and more engaging.
                      (Sour, Hibi No Neiro)
Crowdsourcing ≠ something for nothing.

It’s a creating a platform to share value.

              A reason                  A reason
              to share                  to share
INDIVIDUALS              SMALL GROUPS              NETWORKS
#2




                          &
 People need reasons           It’s not technology
  to pay attention to          that’s exciting, it’s
brands and extra value        the real reasons why
 to restore lost trust.              you do it.
)
                                        ns
                                      io
                                  ess
                               gr
                             di
                         w
                       fe
                   a
               s
             lu
           (p
[Part 2]
#3




                    &
     Going beyond       Looking after
      greenwash.        what’s local.
#4




                         &
     Developing world        ↑↑↓↓←→←→BABA
     leading the game.        or We’re all Playful.
www.chemistrygroup.co.uk




                           Part 2 to follow...




                                    Image credits, sources & links [ http://bit.ly/5gVOD9 ]
                                             written/design by davidjcarr.wordpress.com
1 of 153

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2010 Digital Trends, Ideas and Technologies (Part 1)

  • 1. ) ns io ess gr di w fe a s lu (p [Part 1]
  • 2. But first a quick pinch of salt... “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp. 1977 “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943 “There’s no chance the “Computers in the iPhone is going to get future may weigh no any significant market more than 1.5 tons.” share. No chance.” Popular Mechanics, forecasting Steve Ballmer, MSFT CEO 2007 the march of science, 1949
  • 4. #1 (REAL)time now. & live.
  • 5. #1 (REAL)time now. & live.
  • 6. So what is happening now? re ta lking pe ople a ams, Lots of -time stre t... Real rch, abou e sea Re al-tim ectations. e exp Re al-tim wh y?
  • 7. 19% users no w say er ser t vi of internet r e hey us are h Twitte ce to s s, e 27 pe .3 r day w a nnual ith an weets llion t n millio un r tweets or an oth emselv hers. of 10 b i bout th bout ot rate upd ates a dates a or to see up 40 ok Facebo illion a m a y from t es a d ience. s upda lus aud 800 statu t millio s upda nd IM U o n nth by es a m sers statu 350 m illion- p ults ine ad d M a il A ges of onl se Yahoo A 18 -24 who have u ated 2% r or upd +65 Twitte online s 4% a statu 55 – 64 5% 45 – 54 10% 20% 35 – 44 19% 25 – 34 18 –24 Sources: Pew Internet And American Life Project, Facebook, Yahoo, Pingdom
  • 8. e’ve never y me ans w here’s a Tech nolog are t hat t ow. ore aw ing n been m gs h appen ributing lot of thin vely cont acti And we’re
  • 9. People using technology to share “live-streams” what they do, buy, think, and watch ...creating more and more information. How are we dealing with it?
  • 10. a digression ? No, it’s not a joke. “The GScreen Spacebook was designed to help you get more done in a mobile environment” Maybe not... elp for d rome." ting h ibration syn ? — Get "P the fe e g m v hanto hen you ans it w er you ling w only to find icity) , mobile all. (Neuropla st r More seriously, we’re looking to practically vibratin ated at integrate the increasing r ne ver vib infomation overload into our lives via technology filters like Real-time search.
  • 11. What is so different about real-time search v. normal search? o Relevancy is important, but timeliness is the essential part. o It is getting an idea of what people are talking about or interested in now. o The potential is to combine: - on-the-spot peer reviews - recommendations - discovery - offers and time sensitive calls to action - social media connections/referrals - instant information updates. How are people already a re phat ic approaching real-time search? tw eets nal o Bing & Google are already integrating of the versatio lue" 0.55% are con o 4 .55% va long nal Twitter & Updates into their search results, ss a o 37 av e "pa promotio Yahoo is putting them on the homepage, even .7% h re self- o 8 5% a MSN linking Facebook, Twitter & Live. m o 5.8 5% are spas. o 3.7 % are new o “We don’t know enough about what kinds of BUT... o 3.6 queries people would issue against real-time data to know how monetizable it is.” Marissa Mayer, Google
  • 12. And people are exploring new(ish) tools Mentionmap maps the topics of conversation heating up in your social graph.
  • 13. With new ways of converting noise to knowledge. Ellendale uses Freebase and other information sources to create a “semantic analysis of the real-time web.”
  • 14. Practical approaches to search and other real-time trends... Temporal cues in your search query determine the relevance of time and change the priority of your results e.g. If you search for “snow conditions at your favorite ski resort, you’ll find updates from other users who are there and sharing the latest and greatest information.” Real-time online collaboration o A Business benefit of the real-time trend. o Part of the shift from batch analytics and waterfall processes, to real-time analytics and agile processes. o Using Google Wave and add-ons like SAP’s Gravity. o Enable groups of people to collaborate on projects without the cost or infrastructure investment of a Sharepoint-type solution. Sources: Top 15 Technology trends for Enterprise Architects to watch, Forrester; Google
  • 15. Real-time o Visible staff involvement in problem resolution. o Reacting and responding to questions and customer issues quickly and transparently, #twelpforce: 13,000 queries in the first two months. service o Engaging in real human conversations.
  • 16. a digression “Please hide/remove the customer-service number.” And yet “Our requirement is the reduce calls to the call-centre.” “We want people to self-serve.”
  • 17. NDLER TO RESPOND D HA IN E AP AM PR CEO N OP TO RI N EC CORR T DEPA AT Tech IG HR Support TO EM ASS E RT T EDIU M U RO EN T M 0800 000 000 Customer Marketing Service @Corp someone@someone.com DM @Someone Inquiry/ Immediate/ monitoring auto response & then hand-over aknowledgement Empowered @Someone decision-making, training & investment.
  • 18. Over a month later the SERP results for “Vodafone & Twitter” are dominated by the news story, not product information. Things happen in real-time but can stick around for a long time.
  • 20. Aggregating opinion & newsworthy content to improve coverage of real time events.
  • 23. Brands stimulating and aggregating streams of relevant conversations and associated content. Platforms for entering and harnessing the dialogue that is already happening. * BRAND ND a DESTINATION NAT implied na lways t steps, FLA FLASH tinatio thout nex user” * Des nd wi “end- MICROSITE MIC e m finite ke the ter li a bit
  • 24. Time sensitive offers designed for life-streams o Integrated into real-time experience with a sense of NOW. o Urgency because traditional marketing campaigns (like TV progs) now can be filtered and time shifted (and even forgotten as our content collection piles up). NB: Facebook have changed the rules...again.
  • 25. But value needs to be long-term or we create “a community of jaded fans who are only interested in the next coupon”. Peak of interest with a sharp fall. Time sensi sensitive offers d designed for life-streams? ? fo o Integrated into real-time experience with a sense of NOW. real-time i o Urgency because traditional marketing campaigns traditional (like TV progs) now can be filtered and time shifted n be (and even forgotten as our content collection piles up). our NB: Facebook have changed the rules...again. the rules...again. he
  • 26. “The next phase of media, I’ve been thinking, will be after the page and after the site. Media can’t expect us to go to it all the time. Media has to come to us. Media must insinuate itself into our streams.” Jeff Jarvis
  • 27. Real-time eCommerce o As retailers move closer to real-time inventory management, it increases the possibility of more widespread dynamic demand led pricing. o Consumers can be alerted about price changes as they happen. o They can even group together to negotiate bulk discounts.
  • 28. What does it means for the site owners? More time on site but fewer page views. Decreased server costs with fewer page refreshes and DB calls as sites move from polling to real-time push. Advertising analytics nightmare. 8 hours = 1 pageview but 100’s of opportunities to see an ad? How can you tell which story in the stream was read and which was missed? Source: Ted Roden New York Times
  • 29. The e-commerce opportunity? Real-time insight. “a clothing retailer could identify a spike in positive chat about a celebrity that is wearing one of their apparel items, and could immediately feature that piece of clothing on their homepage and launch campaigns to a targeted audience interested in that celebrity and lifestyle. This allows the retailer to immediately maximize the new revenue opportunity, and deliver more engaging, relevant content to its customer base.”
  • 30. WHAT ABOUT THE REST OF US? PubSubHubbub (PuSH) real-time syndication protocol. Publisher Hub Subscriber FASTER, COMPUTATIONALLY EFFICIENT AND A WAY FOR SMALL PUBLISHERS TO GET INTO GOOGLE RESULTS IN REAL-TIME.
  • 32. If you tap into a “live-stream” of first or second hand experiences and thoughts, how can control the flow and tell what is relevant? - c ontent ation of s onalis only what is tic per owing Seman and sh g f ilterin to you. vides a o r elevan t eb prows data tic w at all ream i s emanwork th cross “The s frame s t the st not the e tha ata is on eused a Re cogni and “d comm ared and r d ill da ta t. to be sh prise an 3C). st nsigh FUL , enter ries” (W ” or i NING n licatio bounda truth EA T ≠M ST M app O munit y RECE N y vocal d”. com MOST cked b ncerne et hija erly co D on’t g or “ov y m inorit
  • 33. Source: Richard MacManus, RRW Content is rapidly pushed down the stream by 4,000 articles/videos a day. “Low quality”, high search visibility “farmed” content.
  • 34. next next 6 12 5 11 4 10 now now 3 9 2 8 1 7 over? 6 over? 5 3 1 4 2 The TiVo problem? Real-time risks focusing us too much on NOW and it is easy to miss things. What do we do with the stream in the long-term? We can be easily everwhelmed by piles of forgotten content from the day before yesterday. Real-time search tools are quick but don’t handle old results as well; while Google PageRank (link-based algorithms/citation analysis) is not necessarily the best approach to capturing real-time (often as yet unlinked) data.
  • 35. Behaviour & Role of brand. “Be the vehicle at the heart of the relationship, an enabler (of services, content, utility, entertainment) and filter (of noise, relevance, need) for customers.”
  • 36. Lots of people, saying lots of different things, all expecting a response, now. They’re waiting. How do you deal with expectation culture?
  • 37. ntin g on com me e even u like it Th ey’r ether yo r site wh t) or not. you enab led i (& have
  • 38. CMO Customer Customer Customer listening participation operations and design s , ignmer s s deee custo sinceure wh r bu ialiness stru t business p Soc bus w cted to s grou a ne ne is con real-time fo cu ”. feedb ack d people es “like a og y, data an or PR, process g technol f digit al o nd co mbinin tmentalism ticipating a s, r r t No compa is about pa ning produc in g sig ad vertis ab out de s. arket in g is nce m experie es and servic Sources: David Armano, Dachis Group, Razorfish
  • 39. a l create etc. wil . l aunch ital reaction ction, g Every a s ible di tant and vi “publi c ins p develo esponse to o eeds t apid r outlet s. o PR ships” in r n ag e news rel ation s t ma n not ju s dia logue n isation n t orga in to clie ications and Integ rated un e? o e d comm v ice rol Domin as a c ombin tionship/ser la o’s Piz za any one? custo mer re
  • 40. Real-time has only limited applicability to someone sitting at a desk in front of a computer beyond news and dialogue, where is the real benefit? f sw itch of ing do n’t you do someth “Why and creen ?” your s ing instead or less b
  • 42. Mobile Internet Outpaces Desktop Internet Adoption Source: Mary Meeker, Morgan Stanley, “Economy + Internet Trends”, October 2009; Neilsen Global Mobile – Strategies for Growth iPhone + iTouch Users = 8x AOL Users 8 Quarters After Launch ~57MM 60 Mobile Internet Desktop Internet iPhone + iTouch Netscape* 50 Launched 6/07 Launched 12/94 Subscribers (MM) 40 ~25MM Mobile Internet 30 NTT docomo i-mode Launched 6/99 20 ~11MM Desktop Internet 10 AOL* ~7MM v 2.0 Launched 9/94 Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19 Quarters Since Launch iPhone + iTouch NTT docomo i-mode AOL Netscape 187% increase in 18.3 million 65 million people mobile social network unique mobile social use Facebook on a audience for YTD July ‘09. network users. mobile device.
  • 43. Affordable contracts Higher speed, new technology Removed cost uncertainty Location Based Services FLAT RATE BETTER PRICING NETWORKS Better choice Better GUIs, halo effect of iPhone BETTER HANDSETS Better choice Optimised for mobile, influence of Apps store & Market BETTER CONTENT
  • 44. “The majority of the real-time search boom will be in its convergence with another rapidly growing industry, mobile computing. [Offering people] real-time recommendations based on your current location using an application that aggregates information from real-time searches as well as social sites like Yelp and Urban Spoon...... local advertisements and “limited time” discounts on your mobile.”* Social Periphery *Rob Diana
  • 45. Social Periphery & Mobile Social Networks Local networks of Global Services Mobile & mixed media sensors and devices and Communities applications/tools Content & Context & relationships Location as filter as intelligence GPS, location Social Communities RFID & & bespoke networks & forums NearField sensors Blogs, UGC Barcodes, QR codes & niche sites and markers Dynamic communication based on action and relevance (Ambient awareness/Social Peripheral Vision) Brands as the filter Physical objects On is off/Off is on and the enabler. in intelligent as physical and Ideas must be “good environments digital worlds fuse enough to share” Helping us plan for now and what’s next. by David J. Carr davidjcarr.wordpress.com Based on Nokia’s Mobile Gateway & Jyri Engestrom
  • 46. From palm of your hand social feed integration as standard, to 24hr location-based content streams and documentaries (The Grid),
  • 47. to third-wave mobile applications and hardware extensions to monitor anything from our finances to our health and fitness.
  • 48. And even extending to e-readers and over 2 million iPads*. *sold in 2 months with 5,000 bespoke Apps available already.
  • 49. a digression V S E SU R SU R E Mobile computing, S V content AND context sets up new battle lines to define the future. VERSUS With And unexpected unexpected companies victims. playing catch-up.
  • 50. What services and content can we deliver at the content/context cross-section? Chain-wide localised, product-specific and cost effective marketing when the inventory in more than 70 Adidas Outlet Stores varies from store to store – and so do the special offers. Or Tesco porting its Clubcard to phones and starting to make them smarter.
  • 51. Even playful location-based social periphery tools.
  • 52. Big brands and entertainment properties using the Foursquare platform.
  • 54. Augmented reality moving beyond marketing gimmick.
  • 55. a digression What do these tools mean for our relationships?
  • 56. a digression Can we challenge 150?
  • 57. a digression Pre-digital society: Closer, less diverse discussion networks, more geographically clustered? >150 <150 (Dunbar’s number) >150 Number of Relationships Geographical proximity Geographical proximity Digitally-enabled society: More diverse discussion networks, more geographically spread? >150 <150 (Dunbar’s number) >150 Sources: Pew Internet And American Life Project, Number of Relationships Geographical proximity Geographical proximity
  • 59. Mobile & (REAL)time More timely information More connections More opportunities to meet up in the real world More live experience
  • 60. #1 (REAL)time now. & live.
  • 61. digital experiences we participate in and use, experiences that break out into the real world. What’s helping this happen?
  • 62. On is off/Off is on. mobile phones to cars and tube From tickets, in a world of cheap, fast & always on Wi-Fi, an unconnected device is unusual. More live interfaces with the real world.
  • 63. “A year from now basically every new phone that’s sold will have [Near Field Communication]. It’s a two-way, bio-directional RFID communication link that makes this device work as a tag or as a reader.” Sony Ericsson’s VP of systems architecture, Håkan Djuphammar
  • 65. a digression Ardui no & Home made hardw are hackin g
  • 66. These sensors, technologies and devices are helping brands move from messaging to digitally-enabled, increasingly live, real-world experiences.
  • 67. The shift to digital experiences enables more shared “watercooler” moments...
  • 69. ...and even the feeling of live and unfiltered brand engagement or consumer control.
  • 70. What influences do digital experiences have on consumers? 65.3% report a digital experience changing their perception of a brand 97.1% report that the digital experience has influenced purchase 24% have produced digital content in order to enter a contest Source: Razorfish Feed
  • 71. = Engagement Engagement = Quantity or Time Engagement = Depth & Quality
  • 72. a digression even extends to changing marketing from pure comms to creating useful, useable & delightful services/products
  • 73. a digression ...or enabling live, real-time responsive retail POS and outdoor. digital retail pos Sources: GMA Report 2009, ACNielsen “Actionable Shopper Insights” Only shopp 16% of ers use grocer lists. y 70% of their p people roduc m at the t selec ake fixtur tion e.
  • 74. #1 (REAL)time & Real relationships and Real, live experiences relevant information and engagement at the speed of now. beyond advertising.
  • 75. What could mean for our clients?
  • 76. o Audiences are mobile – we need to widen digital touch points and become the enabler & filter for people, - Help them now and help them plan for what they are doing next. o To do this will require moving beyond a website-centric model to a distributed platform. - Enable customers to engage in the channel they prefer/have available and track them through fragmented journeys with a single identity - Serve only what’s relevant in current need state and location o Customer feedback will be dynamic and real time – the crowd will express what it wants through its behaviour as well as communicating preferences and views. - An ‘open source’ approach should be considered, tailoring our propositions (function and content) to needs and feedback in real time o Social CRM combining social listening tools with CRM systems tied back to company data to track influencer financial value and help us respond to their needs faster.
  • 77. o Customers will automatically connect with people they have something in common with, experiences are logged and shared automatically, so we’ll need to only serve up relevant content for people to make better decisions. - Personalise and aggregate their offers and promotions as part of shopping experience, make it easier for them to share a good deal and not to miss out - Deal expiry alerts in their streams, use networks to share trackable offer codes o If everything is connected then there are increased engagement opportunities: but we need to design accordingly and appropriately. o Can we extend communications to packaging/POS giving them a layer of digital information or utility? o The increase in digital noise for people will mean that our brand will have a key role to carry the relationship. - Hard to compete for share of attention - Human reaction to mask out noise - We need to help them by making sure all interactions and communications have the value exchange firmly in their favour
  • 78. #2 & The sky didn’t The trough isn’t that disillusioning. f ll fall
  • 79. #2 & The sky didn’t The trough isn’t that disillusioning. fall
  • 80. “Intensifying solvency concerns about a number of the largest US-based and European financial institutions have pushed the global financial system to the brink of systemic meltdown.” Dominique Strauss-Kahn, International Monetary Fund 12 October 2008
  • 81. 'Spending cuts “could cause strikes on scale of 1970s” Daily Telegraph, 1 August “Help ordinary people or we face a summer of turmoil” Sunday Express, 1 March
  • 82. Then this happened. UK total weekly earnings growth: year on year % 8 7 6 Christmas bonuses disappeared 5 and wage growth turned 4 negative for 3 months as people “accepted reality”. 3 2 1 0 -1 Then a cautious level of -2 stability returned. The Chartered Institute of -3 Personnel & Development -4 revised its unemployment predicitons for 2010 from -5 3.2m to 2.8m -6 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: ONS
  • 83. GDP Growth Forecasts even turned positive…but led by the new powerhouses of China and India. Difference from 7/09 IMF Forecasts, 10/09 IMF Forecasts Country / Region 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2009E 2010E USA 2.0% 0.4% -2.7% 1.5% 0.3% 0.6% Euro zone 2.7 0.7 -4.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 Now UK 2.6 0.7 -4.4 -4.75 0.9 -0.2 0.7 China 13.0 9.0 8.5 9.0 1.0 0.5 India 9.4 7.3 5.4 6.4 0.0 -0.1 Russia 8.1 5.6 -7.5 1.5 -1.0 0.0 Brazil 5.7 5.1 -0.7 3.5 0.6 1.0 Developed Markets (1) 2.7 0.6 -3.4 1.3 0.4 0.7 Emerging Markets (2) 8.3 6.0 1.7 5.1 0.2 0.4 World 5.2 3.0 -1.1 3.1 0.3 0.6 Source: Mary Meeker, Morgan Stanley, “Economy + Internet Trends”, International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook (WEO) database, 10/09. Note: (1) IMF equivalent of “advanced economies”; (2) IMF equivalent of “emerging and developing economies”
  • 84. A competition to call time on the plummet.
  • 85. Even if we might still be in the eye of the storm? Uncertainty as we move into 2010 means we’re looking backwards more than forward. And it is recent history that is our anchor.
  • 87. ...serious money worries... $4 t rillion .75ttona) (£2 a i n l tern ) The In y Fund (IMF ar from Monet of l osses es timate ch. d it crun the cre
  • 89. ...even a bit of euphoria. (remember that?) But one year on and both the hype and honeymoon are fading memories. How have we changed?
  • 90. Firstly... 1. Denial 2. Anger 3. Bargaining 4. Depression 5. Acceptance Source: Kübler-Ross model
  • 91. We’re rebalancing. 10% UK Household Saving Ratio 8 6 4 2 0 -2 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 “It has been a tremendous lesson 40% in how to live within your means and separate wants from needs.” are adding to emergency fund U.S Female, 47 Secondly... Resource Interactive research interviews
  • 92. “90% of the U.S. respondents said that their households had reduced spending as a result of the recession. McKinsey Quarterly, March 2009
  • 93. a digression Source: Kelly Mooney, Resource Interactive; JWT 2009 It’s not all hairshirts and honest appraisals. of 18-29 year olds agree with the idea “My generation is being dealt an unfair blow because of this recession.” Even if it was often their parents borrowing money to fuel a Generation Y spending spree.
  • 94. The nineties and the noughties promised us that everything would be NASA Kanye “I’m gonna let you finish” West
  • 95. Now we won’t believe the hype or the promises, Madoff because we know you have pay for it eventually.
  • 96. of technology can falter. Issues of trust & dependancy with the Even the promises cloud. When Gmail went down in Feburary & September…Count the cost: 25m users, 33% affected; average of $50 per hour lost productivity, $415m per hour economic cost... “What's driving usage on the network... are things like video, or audio that keeps playing around the clock. And so we've got to get to those customers and have them recognise that they need to change their pattern, or there will be other things that they are going to have to do to reduce their usage.” Ralph de la Vega, head of wireless at AT&T
  • 97. But equally we won’t believe because that didn’t come true either.
  • 98. So, thirdly. We’ve changed our perspective to a more realistic view.
  • 99. #1 perim entati ess ex money mea ow on and ns we 2er on our basiitcy must #liv L tiv risk with a rly sh De . Crea sability, ys, cle omise s mus t alwa ingful and pr er on u efore e mea n first deliv ffers b les”. peopl value. tility and o whist while u lls and worth ny “be a
  • 100. Coupon sites have been the second-most-visited Source: Business Week, HitWise, Quidco/YouGov, BIGresearch and Resource Interactive, August 2009 category on the Internet, behind job sites, for a year. eMarketer May, 2009 61% able to sca n wa nt to be bar co n othe m ation o d des an r acces s infor . s ’ price stores 9% e ellphon ed a c t us d abou e a frien . tm essag hopping to tex t while s ap roduc 34%an on li ie have looked e a w at le . ne rev urchase p st onc 6 s 2% rs l of UK consu re buy hoppe ties befo e t onlin ing. at k in g a ni be fore m a c ommu
  • 101. Moms with teens said the internet... Source: BIGresearch and Resource Interactive, August 2009 Helped me save money through Helped me become a smarter access to easier price comparisons, shopper; product reviews and coupons, and deal alerts. ratings, blogs and product information has helped me make more informed purchases..
  • 102. Source: Mintel Half of British consumers now buy on promotion but it is not all about money off and discounts, it’s about value.
  • 103. includes help with making purchase decisions and rediscovering lost skills so you don’t have to pay someone else to do it.
  • 104. For businesses this means trust and transparency. 90% m io trust ns fro endat know. recom le they m Source: Neilsen, Trust in Advertising 2009 the peop If people appear to be asking more questions, but less trusting 70% co r opinio nsume online. n trust s that are posted of advertising...
  • 105. For businesses this means trust and transparency. ...but this has forced 69% onten t! trust Source: Neilsen, Trust in Advertising 2009 c editorial some brands to use technology and content to start talking in a less hyberbolic, more transparent and open, almost human way. 70% br and w ebsites ! trust
  • 106. A new realism about technology and its effects.
  • 107. #2 & The sky didn’t The trough isn’t that disillusioning. f ll fall
  • 108. VISIBILITY Peak of Inflated Expectations Plateau of Productivity Slope of Enlightenment Trough of Disillusionment Technology Trigger TIME Innovators Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority Laggards Source: Gartner’s Hype Cycle
  • 110. “Label it and you can sell it.” - Anonymous Remember “New Media”?
  • 111. The legacies of revolutions are sometimes more interesting and longer lasting.
  • 112. Just as Creativity Social Media
  • 114. “It’s real people having real conversations about real objects and ideas.”
  • 115. Why do people really use social networks? Flirt Teens Adults Promote yourself or your work Make new business contacts Organise an event for a cause Make new friends Sources: Pew Internet And American Life Project, Tara Hunt Make plans with friends Stay in touch But w conne hat about cting 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 brand with s?
  • 116. a digression Gurus sold a future of people worshipping brands by “friending” them and having “conversations”. 15,740 Social m “ninja edia exper out s” & “ ts, “gu what ab super OK, but ing with Twitte stars” rus”, nds? r (+3.5 on connect x sinc e May !) bra
  • 117. Phew, there it is. Have you ever followed a brand on Twitter? Yes 25.50% Have you ever “friended” a brand on Facebook or MySpace? Yes 40.10% No 74.50% No 59.90% Sources: Razorfish Feed ‘09, GigaTweet, Penn State, Performics 5 a m illion br Twitte er mo day on tions p en e m ntions and m illion r, 150 nth. 48% a who s ter did a of thos w a br researc n nd me h on e tioned br and m n Twi t o . that brand
  • 118. What is the primary reason you follow a brand on Twitter? I am a current customer 23.5% Exclusive deals or offers 43.5% Other people I know are fans of the brand 6.3% Interesting or entertaining content 22.7% What is the primary reason you “friend” a brand? Service, support, or product news 3.5% I am a current customer 32.9% Other 0.4% Exclusive deals or offers 36.9% Other people I know are fans of the brand 6.2% Interesting or entertaining content 18.2% Service, support, or product news 5.0% Other 0.7% But why? Offers. So what can we do? Source: Razorfish Feed ‘09
  • 121. Get out of their way. Their networks route around censorship, gaps or blocks. “People’s lives don’t revolve around your brand, they revolve around life.” Mike Arauz
  • 123. Design our brands & services for desire paths.
  • 124. Enable our commercial relationships in the context of their real relationships.
  • 125. Practice true customer-centric behaviour, integrated into all business processes, not a silo or a channel, horizontal not vertical... 8 Signs of Customer-centric Behaviour • You send customers to • Your customers are doing things other websites. with your product you never dreamed and are posting videos. • You measure how many people refer their friends to you as • Active influencers are adding you as success (Net Promoter Score). friends on social networks. • When budgets get tightened, • You work with your competitors you tighten operational costs. towards better customer experiences for all. • Your only customer service policy is to do right by • You know you compete for your the customer. customers’ attention with everyone. Source: Tara Hunt
  • 126. ...and throughout the entire consumer decision-making process. Increase in number of brands/solutions being considered. Attention paid to advertising, WOM & online research with information gathering key Start with a shortlist of brands/solutions Active & Passive Loyalty Active Loyalty fuels advocacy but Passive is a larger audience On-going exposure Closure & the moment of decision Consumer builds expectations based on experience to inform their next decision journey Source: McKinsey
  • 127. Social Social program program development integration (strategy) (operations) Social Social program program management measurement (execution) (analysis)
  • 128. And yes, social program management (execution) can be in the form of a campaign. Listen Understand Engage Measure, React & Respond Listen to what the target Segment target into Create a relevant Engage via tribes’ is doing in the real web tribes, give them and interesting preferred platforms with and social arena something to join Social Object multiple interfaces Send Track results and Tribe 1 Tools, widgets Social networks optimise, monitor and & apps & personalised Social triage for react and content pages networks respond conversations Use paid for media to additionally stimulate and spread Enable, encourage and optimise Communities Send for sharing & forums Tribe 2 Videos & content Online ads, IM & promo links Mobile and video sharing sites Blogs, UGC & niche sites Tribe 3 Ideas & assets Websites & email As long as it is “good enough to share”.
  • 129. 100 social “agents” who reviewed Ford’s new Fiesta through Twitter, blogs, video, and events 4.3 million YouTube views 500,000+ Flickr views 3 million+ Twitter impression 50,000 interested potential customers, 97% don’t own a Ford currently.
  • 132. What is Crowdsourcing? “Crowdsourcing is a neologism for the act of taking tasks traditionally performed by an employee or contractor, and outsourcing them to a group of people or community, through an “open call” to a large group of people (a crowd) asking for contributions...The term has become popular with businesses, authors, and journalists as shorthand for the trend of leveraging the mass collaboration enabled by Web 2.0 technologies to achieve business goals.* *Definition Crowdsourced from Wikipedia
  • 133. One view of crowdsourcing “success”. 1 3 Company has 2 a problem. Company broadcasts Crowd asked to give solutions. 4 Crowd submits problem online. their solutions. 5 Crowd vets the solutions, 6 7 Company owns company gains advertising. Company rewards the winners and winning (and non-winning) 8 Company profits solutions. gains PR. from increased profile and IP. Source: Daren C. Brabham
  • 136. More sites, more crowds, more competitions, more innovation?
  • 137. Problem broadcast to an increasing number of people Problem broadcast to an increasing number of people The crowd without the expertise or the answer. Individuals with the expertise & the answer.
  • 138. But Wikipedia is crowdsourcing and that works great?
  • 139. a digression “The Trouble with of Crowdsourcing” How do you keep a secret when someone’s life depends on it?
  • 140. “I find the term ‘crowdsourcing’ incredibly irritating. Any company that thinks it’s going to build a site by outsourcing all the work to its users not only disrespects the users but completely misunderstands what it should be doing. Your job is to provide a structure for your users to collaborate, and that takes a lot of work.” “One of my rants is against the term ‘crowdsourcing’, which I think is a vile, vile way of looking at that world. This idea that a good business model is to get the public to do your work for free. That’s just crazy. It disrespects the people. It’s like you're trying to trick them into doing work for free.” Jimmy Wales, founder of Wikipedia
  • 141. Wikipedia is not a crowd, it is “a community… a dedicated group of a few hundred volunteers.” A platform for collaboration...
  • 142. Collaborative Platforms... ...thrive when “reputation (of participants) is a critical component of the service mechanism. The reputation of participants will derive from the quantity (how much, how often) and quality (how useful) of their contributions. Accreditation (of content) is provided by experts and by the community. Recent, relevant content regarded highly by participants with a good reputation becomes the most visible.” Made by Many
  • 143. Be an advocate of them , so they become advocates of you .
  • 144. These “crowdsourcing” platforms can engage fans or create fans through discussion or consumer collaboration but people can see through manipulation. (and yet another photo upload competition.)
  • 145. Crowdsourcing support and marketing in return for low prices.
  • 146. Crowdsourcing where a Streetview car can’t go. low prices.
  • 147. Channeling your global fans’ passion to be part of something larger and more engaging. (Sour, Hibi No Neiro)
  • 148. Crowdsourcing ≠ something for nothing. It’s a creating a platform to share value. A reason A reason to share to share INDIVIDUALS SMALL GROUPS NETWORKS
  • 149. #2 & People need reasons It’s not technology to pay attention to that’s exciting, it’s brands and extra value the real reasons why to restore lost trust. you do it.
  • 150. ) ns io ess gr di w fe a s lu (p [Part 2]
  • 151. #3 & Going beyond Looking after greenwash. what’s local.
  • 152. #4 & Developing world ↑↑↓↓←→←→BABA leading the game. or We’re all Playful.
  • 153. www.chemistrygroup.co.uk Part 2 to follow... Image credits, sources & links [ http://bit.ly/5gVOD9 ] written/design by davidjcarr.wordpress.com