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PL/NPL flow model


           20 (3%)                    12 (1.6%)                    5 (0.7%)



          120 (4.5%)                  90 (2.5%)                    45 (1.2%)



PL Jan                 NPL / PL Feb                 NPL / PL Mar               NPL / PL Apr




NPL Jan                                                                          PL Apr




                                       95 (13.5%)



                                       13 (10.6%)




                             No. of Accounts
                             Outstanding in 000 EURs
Roll Forward Portfolio Analysis

                      Number of Accounts and Outstanding in 000 EURs




                                            200 (15.5%)
           Current (no dpd)                                                               1−30 dpd
                                           3132.5 (17.1%)


                                            2700.2 (12.8%)

                                                            90 (11.4%)




                           45 (17.4%)                                     32 (10.5%)
 31−60 dpd                                      61−90 dpd                                            91−120 dpd
                          3023.9 (19.9%)                                 1509.7 (12.3%)


                                                    890.2 (17.5%)

                                                                  25 (12.3%)




                           20 (7.5%)                                      32 (9.9%)
121−150 dpd                                    151−180 dpd                                            181+ dpd
                          1200.2 (9%)                                    990.1 (11.9%)


                                           Number of Accounts
  * dpd − Days Past Due                    Outstanding in 000 EURs
Roll Back Portfolio Analysis
                                            Number of Accounts




                                                            181+ dpd
                                                                        5
                                                9
                                                    5
                  151−180 dpd                                                   Current (no dpd)
                                                                            9
                                        7
                                                                3
                  4                                                     7
                                                                                                       10
                                                5                   1
                                            6
                         5                              9

                                    6
121−150 dpd                                                                                            1−30 dpd
                                                    7

                                                        4                                 4
              8                             3

                                5                                       6
                                                                7                                  9


                                                                            3
                  91−120 dpd                                                      31−60 dpd
                                    9                   3


                                                                        4
                                                            61−90 dpd
Roll Back Portfolio Analysis
                                         Outstanding in 000 EURs




                                                              181+ dpd
                                                                         119
                                              59
                                                    73
                   151−180 dpd                                                       Current (no dpd)
                                                                               90
                                        99
                                                                  69
                   66                                                    56
                                                                                                             91
                                               78                  72
                                             87
                          115                            108

                                       65
121−150 dpd                                                                                                  1−30 dpd
                                                    51

                                                         89                                    67
              77                             114

                                 120                                     111
                                                                  110                                   63


                                                                               113
                   91−120 dpd                                                          31−60 dpd
                                       100               104


                                                                         118
                                                          61−90 dpd

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Roll Rate Model - Using R in Finance

  • 1. PL/NPL flow model 20 (3%) 12 (1.6%) 5 (0.7%) 120 (4.5%) 90 (2.5%) 45 (1.2%) PL Jan NPL / PL Feb NPL / PL Mar NPL / PL Apr NPL Jan PL Apr 95 (13.5%) 13 (10.6%) No. of Accounts Outstanding in 000 EURs
  • 2. Roll Forward Portfolio Analysis Number of Accounts and Outstanding in 000 EURs 200 (15.5%) Current (no dpd) 1−30 dpd 3132.5 (17.1%) 2700.2 (12.8%) 90 (11.4%) 45 (17.4%) 32 (10.5%) 31−60 dpd 61−90 dpd 91−120 dpd 3023.9 (19.9%) 1509.7 (12.3%) 890.2 (17.5%) 25 (12.3%) 20 (7.5%) 32 (9.9%) 121−150 dpd 151−180 dpd 181+ dpd 1200.2 (9%) 990.1 (11.9%) Number of Accounts * dpd − Days Past Due Outstanding in 000 EURs
  • 3. Roll Back Portfolio Analysis Number of Accounts 181+ dpd 5 9 5 151−180 dpd Current (no dpd) 9 7 3 4 7 10 5 1 6 5 9 6 121−150 dpd 1−30 dpd 7 4 4 8 3 5 6 7 9 3 91−120 dpd 31−60 dpd 9 3 4 61−90 dpd
  • 4. Roll Back Portfolio Analysis Outstanding in 000 EURs 181+ dpd 119 59 73 151−180 dpd Current (no dpd) 90 99 69 66 56 91 78 72 87 115 108 65 121−150 dpd 1−30 dpd 51 89 67 77 114 120 111 110 63 113 91−120 dpd 31−60 dpd 100 104 118 61−90 dpd