ACFTA Trickle Down Effect: ICT Education Roles on Human Resources Readiness for Indonesia

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• The knowledge-driven economy continues to be
characterized by a rapidly changing and pervasive characterized by a rapidly changing and pervasive
information infrastructure.
• The Internet and its accompanying applications # e-
Business platforms, interactive experiences with new forms of content, sophisticated consumer devices, leading-edge information technology # are all elements of the digital economy.


==> Heavily supported by prominent
ICT Education Institution

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ACFTA Trickle Down Effect: ICT Education Roles on Human Resources Readiness for Indonesia

  1. 1. CAFTA Trickle Down Effect: ICT Education Roles on Human Resources Readiness for IndonesiaDjadja Achmad Sardjana, S.T., M.M Lecture on Informatics Engineering Widyatama University djadja.sardjana@widyatama.ac.id http://www.slideshare.net/djadja Seminar on CAFTA25 January 2010 Telkomsel 1
  2. 2. Presentation Outline • World Economic Growth: The cheese already moved to east (mostly China) • Economic characteristics and its development of ASEAN members and China • Trade and Investment between Indonesia – China, and their impacts on Indonesian economy. • ASEAN China Free Trade Area (ACFTA): The Basic Agreement and Current Development • ICT Education Roles on Human Resources Readiness for Indonesia25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 2
  3. 3. World Economic Growth : The cheese already moved to the east (mostly China)25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 3
  4. 4. World GDP Real 2000 GDP ($billions) 14000 From the fourth quarter of 2008 to the final quarter of 12000 2009, the economists expect the economy to contract 0.2%. However, thats looking across the valley of a long 10000 and deep recession concentrated in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first and second quarters of 2009. 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 North America Latin America Europe Former Soviet Union Asia and Oceania Middle East Africa 25 January 2010Prepared and copyright by Gene Shackman Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 4 Data from USDAThe Global Social Change Research Project The International Macroeconomic Data Sethttp://gsociology.icaap.org http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/Macroeconomics/
  5. 5. Countries with highest growth Real 2000 GDP ($billions) 2500 2000 The World Bank upped its estimate for Chinese economic growth to 1500 7.2% as against its March forecast of only 6.5% growth for year 2009 1000 500 0 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 China Singapore Taiwan South Korea Malaysia Hong Kong Thailand World Average 25 January 2010Prepared and copyright by Gene Shackman Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 5 Data from USDAThe Global Social Change Research Project The International Macroeconomic Data Sethttp://gsociology.icaap.org http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/Macroeconomics/
  6. 6. Countries with highest growth Excluding China. Real 2000 GDP ($billions) 800 Indonesia is building more roads, bridges and power plants 700 to sustain economic growth, which Bank Indonesia forecasts at as much as 5.5 percent this year (2010). President Susilo 600 Bambang Yudhoyono pledged to double infrastructure spending to as much as $140 billion in his second five-year 500 term until 2014. The economy may expand 6.6 percent on average over the next five years, Yudhoyono said on Jan. 6. 400 300 200 100 0 Singapore Taiwan South Korea Malaysia Hong Kong Indonesia World Average 25 January 2010Prepared and copyright by Gene Shackman Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 6 Data from USDAThe Global Social Change Research Project The International Macroeconomic Data Sethttp://gsociology.icaap.org http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/Macroeconomics/
  7. 7. CHINA IS A SUPER POWER already• China GDP will grow by seven percent or more next year.• China will mandate buy China for domestic usage• China will buy IMF bonds• China owns about 800 billion of US Treasury• China has two trillion dollars of foreign reserve. This will grow to three trillion in next five years.• China wants to have significant say at IMF• China does not want to called as part of BRIC, It should be renamed as BRIM (Brazil, Russia, India, and Mexico)25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 7
  8. 8. Economic characteristics and its development of ASEAN members and China25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 8
  9. 9. Economic Growth: ASEAN Behind China 20 15 10 China India Indonesia 5 Percent ASEAN-5 0 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 -5 -10 -1525 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 9 Source: IMF
  10. 10. GDP Comparison: ASEAN’s GDP only 34% of the Chinese (2008) China 4,401.6 India 1,209.7 Indonesia 511.8 Thailand 273.2 Malaysia 222.2 Singapore 181.9 Philippines 168.6 Viet Nam 89.8 Myanmar 27.2 Brunei Darussalam 14.6 Cambodia 11.2 Lao PDR 5.3 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 Billions of USD25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 10 Source: 2008 figure, IMF
  11. 11. GDP Structure: ASEAN members, China and India 120 100 8.0 1.1 2.8 19.1 41.1 23.1 39.7 15.2 28.8 27.8 80 39.8 9.7 44.4 6.2 30.9 19.1 8.4 60 11.6 11.9 Percent 12.5 12.9 10.7 13.5 40 67.3 71.1 20.8 60.9 54.7 54.8 41.0 45.2 20 36.1 20.1 0 -1.8 -5.3 -16.5 -20 Brunai China Singapore Malaysia India Thailand Indonesia Vietnam Philipina Private consumption Government consumption Gross domestic capital formation Net Export25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 11 Source: ADB
  12. 12. Trade and Investment between Indonesia – China, and theirimpacts on Indonesian economy25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 12
  13. 13. High Growth of FDI in China: Impact of Economic Reform 120 China 100 80 Billion USD 60 ASEAN 40 20 Indonesia - India 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 (20)25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 13 Source: UNCTAD
  14. 14. FDI Inflow (1998-2008): China is far Above ASEAN China 677.2 ASEAN 396.4 Singapore 190.0 Thailand 75.3 Malaysia 47.8 India 33.5 Vietnam 29.2 Indonesia 20.3 Philippines 17.4 Brunei Darussalam 8.4 Cambodia 3.7 Myanmar 3.3 Lao Peoples Dem. Rep. 1.0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Billion USD25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 14 Source: UNCTAD
  15. 15. Exports and Import: Huge Surplus of China’s International Trade China 1428.5 ASEAN 879.3 India 187.4 Singapore 241.4 Malaysia 194.5 Exports Thailand 175.0 Imports Indonesia 137.0 Viet Nam 61.8 Philippines 49.0 Brunei Darussalam 8.8 Myanmar 6.6 Cambodia 4.4 Lao PDR 0.8 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Billions of USD25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 15 Source: Asean Economic Community Chartbook, 2008
  16. 16. Top 5 ASEAN Exports to China: Dominated by Electonics Parts and Primary Commodities Others, 58% Palm oil & its fractions, not chemically modified, Electronic integrated 5% circuits and Automatic data microassemblies, 18% processing machines; Petrolium oils, not optical reader, etc, 7% crude, 6% Natural rubber, balata, gutta-percha etc, 6%25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 16 Source: Asean Economic Community Chartbook, 2008
  17. 17. ASEAN Commodities Export to China: Main Source for China’s Demand , 2008 Marble,travertine, ecaussines etc 76.6 Niobium, tantalum, vanadium ores & concentrates 76.7 Zinc ores & concentrates 76.9 Ores & concentrates, nes 77.3 compounded rubber, unvulcanised, in primary forms 82.9 Iron oxides & hydroxides 84.1 Zirconium & articles thereof, including waste & scrap 86 Chromium ores & concentrates 89.9 Alumunium ores & concentrates 91.8 Iron ores & concentrates; including roasted iron pyrites 94.8 Slag. Dross other than granulated slag 97 Uranium or thorium ores & concentrates 99.9 75 80 85 90 95 100 Percent25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 17 Source: ASEAN Economic Commonity Chartbook 2009
  18. 18. 5 Top ASEAN’s Import ASEAN from China, 2008 Others, 76% Electric app for line telephony, Hot rolled, flat- including current rolled products of Automatic data line system, 6% iron or nonalloy processing Parts & acces od steel, 2% machines; optical computers & office Electronic reader, etc, 5% machines, 6% integrated circuits and microassamblies, 5%25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar ASEAN Economic Commodity Chartbook, 2009 Source: on CAFTA 18
  19. 19. ASEAN trade with China: Continuous increase of deficit 120 100 Import 80 60 Billion USD Export 40 20 0 -0.9 -1.7 -4.3 -2.0 -2.7 -4.0 -2.9 -3.7 -1.5 -6.4 -8.9 -9.9 -20 -15.2 Balance of trade -21.4 -40 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 200825 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 19 Source: ASEAN Statistical Yearbook, 2008
  20. 20. ASEAN China Free Trade Area (ACFTA): The Basic Agreement and Current Development25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 20
  21. 21. List of ASEAN Free Trade Agreements AGREEMENT SIGNING DATE EFFECTIVE ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand 27 February 2009 Preparations are currently being undertaken for the ratification and the Free Trade Area (AANZFTA) subsequent implementation of the Agreement by the parties ASEAN-China Free Trade Area November 2002 The realization of ACFTA in 2010 for Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, (ACFTA) Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and China, and 2015 for Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar and Viet Nam. ASEAN-India Trade in Goods 13 August 2009 The ASEAN-India FTA will see tariff liberalisation of over 90% of products (TIG) Agreement traded between the two dynamic regions. Tariffs on over 4,000 product lines will be eliminated by 2016, at the earliest. The ASEAN-India TIG Agreement will enter into force on 1 January 2010 once India and at least one ASEAN Member State notify completion of their internal ratification process. ASEAN-Japan Comprehensive April 2008 The Agreement entered into force on 1 December 2008. As of July 2009, Economic Partnership (AJCEP) Brunei Darussalam, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand, Viet Nam and Japan have ratified the Agreement. ASEAN-ROK Framework 13 Dec. 2005 The Framework Agreement provides for an ASEAN-ROK Free Trade Area by Agreement on Comprehensive the year 2008 (with flexibility to 2010) for ROK, 2010 (with flexibility to Economic Cooperation 2012) for Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, 2016 for Viet Nam and 2018 for Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Myanmar. 25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 21
  22. 22. Countries Economic Characteristics: ASEAN Needs to Define A Better Strategy • China is an economic giants to ASEAN • GDP and Foreign Reserve of China are far above those of ASEAN members • Trade structure between China and ASEAN members show that Chinese products are highly competitive • Almost all ASEAN members face trade deficit against China • Chinese attractiveness for foreign investment is above that of ASEAN members in average.25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 22
  23. 23. ACFTA: Gates to Liberalization • ACFTA was agreed in November 2002 and effectively due date on January 01, 2010. Both sides have targeted the realization of ACFTA in 2010 for Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and China, and 2015 for Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar and Viet Nam. • Under the ACFTA, tariffs on certain products as known as the Early Harvest Program (EHP), were reduced before the onset of the FTA (came into effect on 1 January 2004). • Others agreements by sectors have also been agreed under ACFTA.25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 23
  24. 24. Agreements Under ACFTA #1 • The ASEAN-China MOU on Strengthening Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) Cooperation was signed in November 2007. • ASEAN-China MOU on Agricultural Cooperation in November 2002 in Phnom Penh; a more direct cooperation in the agricultural sector between the lead national agencies in ASEAN and China. An extended ASEAN-China MOU on Agricultural Cooperation for 2007-2011 was signed in January 2007 in Cebu. • ASEAN and China strategic partnership in Information and Communications Technology (ICT) to promote international cooperation in terms of investment in human resources development on ICT and to explore the possibility of establishing Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) information highway.25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 24
  25. 25. Agreements Under ACFTA #2 • ASEAN and China cooperation: the MOU on Transport Cooperation in November 2004 in Vientiane, promoting: i) transport infrastructure construction; ii) transport facilitation; iii) maritime safety and security; iv) air transport; v) human resources development; and vi) information exchange. • The 7th ASEAN-China Maritime Transport Agreement (ACMTA), November 2008 agreed in principle with the Strategic Plan for ASEAN-China Transport Cooperation, identifying transport infrastructure projects aimed at enhancing international and cross- border transportation and facilitation.25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 25
  26. 26. Agreements Under ACFTA #2 • ASEAN and China cooperation: the MOU on Transport Cooperation in November 2004 in Vientiane, promoting: i) transport infrastructure construction; ii) transport facilitation; iii) maritime safety and security; iv) air transport; v) human resources development; and vi) information exchange. • The 7th ASEAN-China Maritime Transport Agreement (ACMTA), November 2008 agreed in principle with the Strategic Plan for ASEAN-China Transport Cooperation, identifying transport infrastructure projects aimed at enhancing international and cross- border transportation and facilitation.25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 26
  27. 27. ICT Education Roleson Human Resources Readiness for Indonesia25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 27
  28. 28. Learn from Singapore• Aim: Our basic blueprint, Infocomm21, lays out plans to develop Singapore into a dynamic and vibrant infocomm capital with a thriving and prosperous Internet economy by 2010.• Vision: To develop Singapore into a dynamic and vibrant global infocomm capital with a thriving and prosperous e-economy and an infocomm-savvy e- society.DR TONY TAN KENG YAM, SINGAPORE ACTING PRIME MINISTER25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 28
  29. 29. Knowledge-driven• The knowledge-driven economy continues to be characterized by a rapidly changing and pervasive information infrastructure.• The Internet and its accompanying applications # e- Business platforms, interactive experiences with new forms of content, sophisticated consumer devices, leading-edge information technology # are all elements of the digital economy. Heavily supported by prominent ICT Education Institution25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 29
  30. 30. Ecosystem of the Infocomms and Media • Communications • e-Business • Information Technology (IT) • Media & Digital Entertainment (MDE) Education Institution as part of “Innovator & Early-Adopter”25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 30
  31. 31. e-Powering the Public Sector Strategies• Encourage the delivery of online public services• Innovate with technology to build new capabilities• Develop thought leadership on e-government• Promote the use of e-government services• Leverage the private sector Widyatama can propose to Telkomsel as “Change Agent” for Educate their external stakeholder (customer , partner, community, supplier etc.)25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 31
  32. 32. e-Powering the People Sector Strategies• Improve the accessibility of infocomm technology• Bridge the digital divide• Encourage the adoption of an e-lifestyle Widyatama can propose to Telkomsel as “Change Agent” for Universal Sevice Obligation (USO) stakeholder (customer , partner, community, supplier etc.)25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 32
  33. 33. Trend for ICT for the next 5 years• Network Security• Mobile Wireless & Broadband Access• Service Delivery Platform (SDP) for Convergence Widyatama can propose to Telkomsel to Educate & Train their internal stakeholder (employee, manager, shareholder etc.)25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 33
  34. 34. Thank You25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 34

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