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Covid 19 Stats in India Update 9 6.10.20

Divyaroop Bhatnagar
Divyaroop Bhatnagar
Divyaroop BhatnagarManaging Director at YFactor Marketing Pvt Ltd

Deaths/Day have been fluctuating between 1000 – 1200 since 13th August The highest point for Deaths/Day was 1283 on 15th September. This peak has held till now (20 days) Almost all states are showing stable/declining trends in Deaths/Day New/Active cases have also peaked and are declining. The highest no of cases was on 16th September at 97,856. That peak has held till now. Active Cases peaked at 10,17,718 on 17th September

Covid 19 Stats in India Update 9 6.10.20

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Covid 19 Stats in India –
Update 9
Review of key data and presentation of a projection model
Data updated till 5.10.20
Data Sources: https://www.covid19india.org/; https://www.worldometers.info/;
https://censusindia.gov.in/2011-prov-results/paper2/data_files/india/paper2_1.pdf
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-
chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&area
sRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&byDate=0&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=dea
ths
Key Highlights
• Deaths/Day have been fluctuating between 1000 – 1200 since 13th August
• The highest point for Deaths/Day was 1283 on 15th September. This peak
has held till now (20 days)
• Almost all states are showing stable/declining trends in Deaths/Day
• New/Active cases have also peaked and are declining.
• The highest no of cases was on 16th September at 97,856. That peak has held till
now.
• Active Cases peaked at 10,17,718 on 17th September
Projection Model for India
Basis for Projection
• Most countries have seen a fall in new infections and deaths per day
after some time. Some countries like India have yet to experience
this.
• The response of various counties is different in terms of when this
decline started.
• Our model will use per capita deaths and infections on the day the
decline started in each country to model a possible scenario for India.
As stated earlier, deaths are a more reliable indicator than infections
for projection.
Herd Immunity and R0
• There is some speculation on why the virus has declined in so many countries.
• ‘Herd Immunity’ comes when approximately 60% of the population is immune
either by a vaccine or because they have had the disease already. This has not
happened anywhere in the world. However there is new thinking on this that we
will discuss later.
• Social distancing, hand washing, and masking can help to reduce the R0 value
even if Herd Immunity has not been achieved. Perhaps this is the reason why
infections and deaths have declined.
• This presentation and projection model does not seek to answer this question. It
is merely based on the empirical evidence of declines having taken place in most
countries.
Infections Deaths Infections Deaths
Malaysia 3.04.20 29.03.20 103 1
Thailand 29.04.20 NA 42 -
Indonesia 13.05.20 NA 57 -
Bangladesh NA NA - -
Pakistan NA NA - -
Turkey 11.04.20 19.04.20 619 24
Iran 30.03.20 4.04.20 495 41
Italy 26.03.20 27.03.20 1,333 151
Spain 1.04.20 2.04.20 2,227 221
France 3.04.20 15.04.20 1,171 263
Germany 2.04.20 15.04.20 1,012 45
Russia 11.05.20 NA 1,517 -
UK 6.05.20 21.04.20 2,962 298
USA 24.04.20 21.04.20 2,797 138
Brazil NA NA - -
Date of Decline Start Per Million on that date
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Covid 19 Stats in India Update 9 6.10.20

  • 1. Covid 19 Stats in India – Update 9 Review of key data and presentation of a projection model Data updated till 5.10.20 Data Sources: https://www.covid19india.org/; https://www.worldometers.info/; https://censusindia.gov.in/2011-prov-results/paper2/data_files/india/paper2_1.pdf https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus- chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&area sRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&byDate=0&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=dea ths
  • 2. Key Highlights • Deaths/Day have been fluctuating between 1000 – 1200 since 13th August • The highest point for Deaths/Day was 1283 on 15th September. This peak has held till now (20 days) • Almost all states are showing stable/declining trends in Deaths/Day • New/Active cases have also peaked and are declining. • The highest no of cases was on 16th September at 97,856. That peak has held till now. • Active Cases peaked at 10,17,718 on 17th September
  • 4. Basis for Projection • Most countries have seen a fall in new infections and deaths per day after some time. Some countries like India have yet to experience this. • The response of various counties is different in terms of when this decline started. • Our model will use per capita deaths and infections on the day the decline started in each country to model a possible scenario for India. As stated earlier, deaths are a more reliable indicator than infections for projection.
  • 5. Herd Immunity and R0 • There is some speculation on why the virus has declined in so many countries. • ‘Herd Immunity’ comes when approximately 60% of the population is immune either by a vaccine or because they have had the disease already. This has not happened anywhere in the world. However there is new thinking on this that we will discuss later. • Social distancing, hand washing, and masking can help to reduce the R0 value even if Herd Immunity has not been achieved. Perhaps this is the reason why infections and deaths have declined. • This presentation and projection model does not seek to answer this question. It is merely based on the empirical evidence of declines having taken place in most countries.
  • 6. Infections Deaths Infections Deaths Malaysia 3.04.20 29.03.20 103 1 Thailand 29.04.20 NA 42 - Indonesia 13.05.20 NA 57 - Bangladesh NA NA - - Pakistan NA NA - - Turkey 11.04.20 19.04.20 619 24 Iran 30.03.20 4.04.20 495 41 Italy 26.03.20 27.03.20 1,333 151 Spain 1.04.20 2.04.20 2,227 221 France 3.04.20 15.04.20 1,171 263 Germany 2.04.20 15.04.20 1,012 45 Russia 11.05.20 NA 1,517 - UK 6.05.20 21.04.20 2,962 298 USA 24.04.20 21.04.20 2,797 138 Brazil NA NA - - Date of Decline Start Per Million on that date
  • 7. Country Wise Variations • The disease has impacted various countries differently. Broadly, the following clusters emerge: • UK/USA are the worst hit. While deaths/day have started declining in both countries they will have a slow recovery. • Spain/France/Italy have had a very sharp increase followed by a steep fall. • Germany is the outlier in Europe as they have managed to contain the infection better than other neighbouring countries. • Turkey and Iran in West Asia have fared better than their European counterparts. There is a ‘second wave’ of infections happening in Iran. • South East Asia, Africa and ANZ have largely escaped the brunt of the disease. • It is outside the scope of this discussion to assign reasons for this differential behaviour. Speculation about natural immunity, BCG vaccination, endemic malaria, hot weather etc are continuing. • Based on the differential response, India looks set to behave more like its West Asian counterparts. The rest of South Asia may also follow suit.
  • 8. Projection Update Population Per Mn Deaths on Day Decline Starts Projected Deaths on Day Decline Starts Low Medium High Low Medium High India 1,37,843,247 25 40 50 34,461 55,137 68,922 • May 24th Presentation – Projected date for decline in deaths/day was in July 2020 based on a doubling rate of deaths per day of 13 days. • Actual decline (this has held for 20 days now but needs to be watched further) has commenced from 15th September when the cumulative deaths were 82,091 corresponding to 75 Deaths/Mn
  • 9. Agenda • Presentation of key data for All India • Phase wise Analysis • Urban/Rural Analysis; Deep dive into Maharashtra data • Discussion
  • 11. • Testing has been ramped up to over 1 Mn tests per day but is showing a declining trend. • The % positive rate was stable at around 8% but is now decreasing slightly. • The Antigen test now accounts for close to 70% of total tests being conducted. Since there could a need for multiple tests on the same patient, a direct correlation between tests and persons infected is weak. We will continue to use Deaths, not Cases as the main parameter for analysis and forecasting
  • 12. • New Infections/Day have slowed down. This may, in part, be due to a plateauing in tests/day and should therefore be viewed with caution. Highest point was on 16th September at 97,856 • Active Infections have also plateaued and are now showing a recent declining trend. This will reduce the burden on the healthcare system. Highest point was on 17th September at 10,17,718 active infections
  • 13. • The death rate has now started stabilizing at 1.55%. • Deaths may occur afterwards from the same group. This will push up the rate a little. • As discussed earlier the real level of infections in the population may be very much higher. In that case the real death rate is probably much lower than what is shown here.
  • 15. Phases Definition Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Decline in Deaths/Day commencing from Jun/ Jul 2020 1 Aug – 10 Sep 11 Sep – 20 Sep After 21 Sep (All have peaked) Places Ahmedabad, Mumbai, Delhi Chennai, Bangalore, Rest of Gujarat Kolkata, Telengana, Rest of Tamil Nadu, Bihar, Punjab, Rest of India Rest of Maharashtra, UP, Pune, Rest of Karnataka J&K, Rest of West Bengal, Haryana, MP, AP, Kerala, Rajasthan, Odisha % to India Population 9% 30% 30% 31%
  • 16. • The initial cities to be affected have started declining in June/July. Gujarat was also one of the earlier states to get impacted • The declining trend has got reversed in Delhi and Mumbai which are slowly rising again. Bangalore has been exhibiting several peaks though at lower levels than the first one.
  • 17. • Decline has commenced in August. • As yet, there is no evidence of a well defined ‘second wave’
  • 18. • Decline has commenced in September, hence it is of recent origin. • Pune has gone through a Second Wave and is again declining. This pattern will be discussed further in the section on Maharashtra.
  • 19. • All states are now exhibiting plateauing/declining trends. However these are only a week/ten days old, so they need to be watched further.
  • 20. • A crest has formed in Deaths/Day. As mentioned earlier, the peak of 1283 Deaths on 15.09.20 is still holding (20 days) • Recent trends in Deaths/Day show a decline in both the 7 DMA and the 3 DMA • Fingers crossed!
  • 21. Urban Rural and Maharashtra Deep Dive
  • 22. • There is a reasonable corelation between Deaths/Mn and the % Urban Population at the State Level (0.57) • This will increase as we examine states that have been more impacted by the pandemic
  • 24. • Maharashtra is by far the worst affected state by Covid in India. • It accounts for 37% of the total deaths in India as of 5.10.20. • India figures can only decline if the Maharashtra spread comes into control. A decline has been observable only from 15th September (515 Deaths) which corresponds to when the India numbers have started declining also. • Since the spread has reached remote districts in Maharashtra, a district level analysis is meaningful and may provide pointers for what will happen in other States.
  • 25. • Corelation Coefficient is pretty good at 0.76
  • 26. S.No District Population % Urban Deaths/Mn Start Date Decline First Peak Deaths/Mn Second Peak Second Peak 7 DMA 4.10.20 7 DMA > 1 Started 7 DMA At Peak Date 7 DMA 4.10.20 1 Pune 94,26,959.00 60.9% 633.50 26.04.20 20.08.20 80.00 373.08 23.09.20 70.43 43.14 2 Mumbai 1,64,34,386.00 100.0% 526.82 26.04.20 26.06.20 107.71 254.28 24.09.20 47.86 44.86 3 Raigad 26,35,394.00 36.9% 484.94 12.05.20 1.08.20 19.71 152.16 Rising 24.86 4 Nagpur 46,53,171.00 68.3% 467.85 14.07.20 13.09.20 65.14 291.41 No 30.86 5 Thane 1,10,54,131.00 76.9% 452.86 4.05.20 10.07.20 65.86 138.95 20.09.20 52.43 36.14 6 Sangli 28,20,575.00 25.5% 441.30 13.07.20 17.09.20 32.71 313.06 No 17.86 7 Satara 30,03,922.00 19.0% 368.85 28.05.20 No No 30.86 8 Kolhapur 38,74,015.00 31.7% 314.66 11.07.20 16.09.20 28.43 267.42 No 10.43 9 Jalgaon 42,24,442.00 31.8% 302.05 10.05.20 21.09.20 15.71 268.67 No 6.43 10 Solapur 43,14,527.00 32.4% 273.96 11.05.20 15.09.20 17.00 228.53 No 7.71 11 Aurangabad 36,95,928.00 43.7% 247.03 14.05.20 27.07.20 11.00 121.49 29.08.20 9.86 5.57 12 Osmanabad 16,60,311.00 17.0% 230.08 16.07.20 No No 6.43 13 Nashik 1,10,54,131.00 42.5% 221.31 9.05.20 2.09.20 17.71 81.87 No 13.00 14 Latur 24,55,543.00 25.5% 209.32 16.06.20 20.09.20 11.00 173.89 No 7.00 15 Ratnagiri 16,12,672.00 16.3% 178.59 8.06.20 No No 4.29 16 Dhule 20,48,781.00 27.9% 163.51 29.05.20 13.09.20 7.14 136.67 No 0.86 17 Ahmednagar 45,42,083.00 20.1% 155.88 14.07.20 18.09.20 19.43 119.33 6.86 18 Akola 18,18,617.00 39.7% 128.67 6.05.20 No 2.43 19 Nanded 33,56,566.00 27.2% 123.64 11.07.20 1.09.20 9.43 67.93 No 4.14 20 Beed 25,85,962.00 19.9% 114.08 25.07.20 21.09.20 7.14 93.58 4.57 21 Parbhani 18,35,982.00 31.0% 109.48 23.07.20 27.09.20 5.14 101.85 2.00 22 Jalna 19,58,483.00 19.3% 100.59 2.07.20 18.08.20 4.00 58.21 16.09.20 3.29 1.57 23 Amravati 28,87,826.00 35.9% 98.34 15.07.20 16.09.20 7.71 71.68 3.43 24 Yavatmal 27,75,457.00 21.6% 85.03 24.07.20 30.09.20 9.86 78.91 7.29 25 Sindhudurg 8,48,868.00 12.6% 81.28 11.09.20 No 4.29 26 Washim 11,96,714.00 17.7% 77.71 6.09.20 30.09.20 3.43 1.57 27 Bhandara 11,98,810.00 19.5% 75.07 24.08.20 25.09.20 5.57 77.58 2.00 28 Nandurbar 16,46,177.00 16.7% 74.72 21.07.20 15.09.20 2.86 64.39 No 0.71 29 Chandrapur 21,94,262.00 35.1% 69.73 6.09.20 13.09.20 5.14 27.80 3.86 30 Gondia 13,22,331.00 17.1% 67.31 2.09.20 21.09.20 3.29 40.84 2.71 31 Hingoli 11,78,973.00 15.2% 51.74 14.08.20 3.09.20 1.29 33.93 1.29 32 Buldhana 25,88,039.00 21.2% 47.91 25.06.20 31.08.20 0.86 28.59 9.09.20 2.29 1.86 33 Wardha 12,96,157.00 32.5% 38.58 19.09.20 25.09.20 7.57 41.66 1.57 34 Gadchiroli 10,71,795.00 11.0% 14.93 22.09.20 25.09.20 1.43 12.13 0.43
  • 27. Maharashtra – District Level Covid Impact Covid Impact – Very High Covid Impact - High Covid Impact - Medium Covid Impact - Low Covid Impact – Very Low Deaths/Mn>450 Deaths/Mn 250 - 450 Deaths/Mn 150 - 250 Deaths/Mn 75 - 150 Deaths/Mn<75 Districts Pune, Mumbai, Thane, Raigad, Nagpur Sangli, Satara, Kolhapur, Jalgaon, Solapur, Aurangabad Osmanabad, Nashik, Latur, Ratnagiri, Dhule Ahmednagar, Akola, Nanded, Beed, Parbhani, Jalna, Amravati, Yavatmal, Sindhudurg, Washim Bhandara, Nandurbar, Chandrapur, Gondia, Hingoli, Buldhana, Wardha, Gadchiroli Population % 37% 18% 15% 20% 10% Urban % 79% 31% 34% 25% 22%
  • 28. • The worst impacted districts clearly exhibit a second wave. However, this wave is less intense than the first peak. • A third peak may also appear. Will it be less intense than the previous ones? The example of Bangalore can be taken.
  • 29. • Less impacted districts like Solapur exhibit a peak at lower levels of Deaths/Mn and also later in time. There could also be multiple peaks at low levels such as Aurangabad but this pattern is rare so far. • Remote districts like Sindhudurg have yet to peak though their base is very low. Only 5 Districts in Maharashtra are yet to peak out of 34.
  • 30. Maharashtra – District Level Covid Impact Covid Impact – Very High Covid Impact - High Covid Impact - Medium Covid Impact - Low Covid Impact – Very Low Deaths/Mn >450 Deaths/Mn 250 - 450 Deaths/Mn 150 - 250 Deaths/Mn 75 - 150 Deaths/Mn <75 Pandemic Start (7 DMA >1) March – 14 Jul 10 May – 13 Jul 9 May – 14 Jul 2 Jul – 6 Sep 25 Jun – 22 Sep Starting Point Mumbai Pune Pune Pune/Nagpur Nagpur Decline Not Started Nil Satara Osmanabad, Ratnagiri Akola, Sindhudurg Nil Decline Starting at Deaths/Mn 139 - 373 267 - 313 68 - 148 58 - 64 28 - 34 Decline Starting From 26 Jun (Mumbai) – 13 Sep (Nagpur) 27 Jul – 21 Sep 2 Sep – 20 Sep 18 Aug – 30 Sep 31 Aug – 25 Sep Second Wave Pune, Mumbai, Raigad, Thane Aurangabad Nil Jalna Buldhana
  • 31. Maharashtra District Level Analysis • The pandemic initially hit Mumbai and then moved out to the major cities, Pune (first) and Nagpur (later). These cities formed the focal point for the spread and were the worst impacted along with neighbouring districts of Mumbai (Thane, Raigad) • There was a considerable time gap between the start of the pandemic in Mumbai by the time it reached remote districts like Gondia and Sindhudurg – 6 months • The worst impacted districts have typically going through a second wave. This is less intense than the first one. This pattern is rare amongst the districts that have been less impacted • Most districts in Maharashtra have peaked. However the peak is of recent origin in remote districts and may be surpassed in future • Peaking is occurring at lower levels in rural/remote districts. These peaks are relatively recent but they do point towards a lesser impact for the rural areas.
  • 32. Directions • The long time gap for the infection to reach remote areas in Maharashtra will get further amplified for remote rural areas in the other states of India. This ties in with Dr Ashish Jha’s opinion that rural spread will take a long time. India is therefore in for a long haul • However, peaking and decline seems to start at much lower levels of deaths/million once you move out of the cities that were initially impacted. The composite impact of this is being felt in the fact that after a long plateau, deaths/day are beginning to decline at the All India level • Second waves (as measured by deaths, not cases) seem to hit more in the places where the initial impact was higher. In less impacted places there may not be a second wave or it may be less severe. We are likely to see a slow decline, punctuated by lesser and lesser peaks as the infection recedes
  • 33. Thank You! Please mail me at debubhatnagar@gmail.com with any comments. Disclaimer: These projections and analysis are not official and are the work of an amateur. They should not be the basis of any decision making.