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Covid 19 Stats in India Update 5 4.08.20

Deaths/day stabilizing Active Infections trend beginning to show a crest formation. RO below 1 in Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai

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Covid 19 Stats in India –
Update 5
Review of key data and presentation of a projection model
Data updated till 3.08.20
Data Sources: https://www.covid19india.org/; https://www.worldometers.info/
Key Highlights
• Deaths/day stabilizing
• Active Infections trend beginning to show a crest formation.
• RO below 1 in Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai
Agenda
• Presentation of key data for All India 10 Mins
• Presentation of key data for Hot Spots 10 Mins
• Discussion 5 Mins
• Presentation of update on projection model 10 Mins
• Discussion 15 Mins
All India Data
• Testing has been ramped
up to over 500,000 tests
per day.
• The % positive rate is now
around 11% and showing
signs of stabilizing.
• Internationally, the norm is
that a 10% positivity rate
indicates that we are
testing enough. India is
around that level now.
• We are recording over
50,000 new infections/day
with a doubling rate of 23
days. Cumulative infections
stand at 1,855,331 on
3.08.20
• However, new infections
being discovered are a
function of how many tests
are being conducted. The
real no of infections is
probably far higher than
what is being discovered.
• IMPORTANT – Infections
are therefore not a reliable
indicator for forecasting
future trends. We will
focus on deaths as the key
parameter for forecasting.
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Covid 19 Stats in India Update 5 4.08.20

  • 1. Covid 19 Stats in India – Update 5 Review of key data and presentation of a projection model Data updated till 3.08.20 Data Sources: https://www.covid19india.org/; https://www.worldometers.info/
  • 2. Key Highlights • Deaths/day stabilizing • Active Infections trend beginning to show a crest formation. • RO below 1 in Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai
  • 3. Agenda • Presentation of key data for All India 10 Mins • Presentation of key data for Hot Spots 10 Mins • Discussion 5 Mins • Presentation of update on projection model 10 Mins • Discussion 15 Mins
  • 5. • Testing has been ramped up to over 500,000 tests per day. • The % positive rate is now around 11% and showing signs of stabilizing. • Internationally, the norm is that a 10% positivity rate indicates that we are testing enough. India is around that level now.
  • 6. • We are recording over 50,000 new infections/day with a doubling rate of 23 days. Cumulative infections stand at 1,855,331 on 3.08.20 • However, new infections being discovered are a function of how many tests are being conducted. The real no of infections is probably far higher than what is being discovered. • IMPORTANT – Infections are therefore not a reliable indicator for forecasting future trends. We will focus on deaths as the key parameter for forecasting.
  • 7. • Cumulative Deaths stand at 38,971 as on 3.08.20 • The rate of growths in daily deaths is slowing as we will see later.
  • 8. • Cum Infections = Cum Recoveries + Cum Deaths • Recoveries have been showing an encouraging trend. However the Recovery Rate is not a useful parameter. Eventually, the recovery rate should reach almost 100% as the mortality rate in total infections is very low. • Active Infections are still growing, though the rate of growth is slowing down. This is leading to a crest formation as we will see later.
  • 9. • The death rate trend is steadily declining. At present it is 2.1%. • Deaths may occur afterwards from the same group. This will push up the rate a little. • As discussed earlier the real level of infections in the population may be very much higher. In that case the real death rate is probably much lower than what is shown here. • India’s death rate is lower than all major countries. International media has questioned this (BBC, NY Times and Washington Post) saying that deaths are not being properly reported. We will discuss this point later.
  • 11. • Mumbai has been the worst affected by Covid 19 followed by Chennai, Delhi, and Ahmedabad. • Testing has been high in Delhi and Chennai leading to a high rate of discovered cases. • The disease has still not significantly penetrated outside the major hot spots though it is spreading faster now. • Is it possible that social distancing and other control measures can be more effectively implemented in small towns/rural areas? This may lead to earlier peaking out.
  • 12. • Rest of India contribution has grown from 33% to 40% in two weeks indicating that the infection is spreading into smaller towns. • Old hot spots are declining as we will see later.
  • 13. • The charts show weekly growth rates in deaths/million for key cities that were impacted. • Older hot spots growth rates (Mumbai, Delhi, Ahmedabad and even Chennai) are declining rapidly. Rest of Maharashtra is still a problem. Bangalore has made good progress in controlling the virus in the last two weeks.
  • 15. Hot Spot States • Maharashtra has reached a plateau. Even after Mumbai started declining, Thane, Pune, Raigad and other neighbouring districts started growing rapidly. • Karnataka, led by Bangalore has started coming under control. AP is also stabilizing. While Chennai is declining, rest of Tamil Nadu is growing. • Gujarat after declining for a long time has started growing outside Ahmedabad. • West Bengal, UP and Bihar are worrying. The base is low but growing.
  • 17. Basis for Projection • Most countries have seen a fall in new infections and deaths per day after some time. Some countries like India have yet to experience this. • The response of various counties is different in terms of when this decline started. • Our model will use per capita deaths and infections on the day the decline started in each country to model a possible scenario for India. As stated earlier, deaths are a more reliable indicator than infections for projection.
  • 18. Herd Immunity and R0 • There is some speculation on why the virus has declined in so many countries. • ‘Herd Immunity’ comes when approximately 60% of the population is immune either by a vaccine or because they have had the disease already. This has not happened anywhere in the world. • Social distancing, hand washing, and masking can help to reduce the R0 value even if Herd Immunity has not been achieved. Perhaps this is the reason why infections and deaths have declined. • This presentation and projection model does not seek to answer this question. It is merely based on the empirical evidence of declines having taken place in most countries.
  • 19. Infections Deaths Infections Deaths Malaysia 3.04.20 29.03.20 103 1 Thailand 29.04.20 NA 42 - Indonesia 13.05.20 NA 57 - Bangladesh NA NA - - Pakistan NA NA - - Turkey 11.04.20 19.04.20 619 24 Iran 30.03.20 4.04.20 495 41 Italy 26.03.20 27.03.20 1,333 151 Spain 1.04.20 2.04.20 2,227 221 France 3.04.20 15.04.20 1,171 263 Germany 2.04.20 15.04.20 1,012 45 Russia 11.05.20 NA 1,517 - UK 6.05.20 21.04.20 2,962 298 USA 24.04.20 21.04.20 2,797 138 Brazil NA NA - - Date of Decline Start Per Million on that date
  • 20. Projection Update Population Per Mn Deaths on Day Decline Starts Projected Deaths on Day Decline Starts Low Medium High Low Medium High India 1,37,843,247 25 40 50 34,461 55,137 68,922 • May 24th Presentation – Projected date for decline in deaths/day was First Half of July 2020 based on a doubling rate of deaths per day of 13 days. • 1st Update on 7th June – Projected date was pushed back to Second Half of July 2020 as the doubling rate had slowed to 17 days. • 2nd Update on 21st June – Appeared that decline may start soon as the growth in death rates had slowed further.
  • 21. Country Wise Variations • The disease has impacted various countries differently. Broadly, the following clusters emerge: • UK/USA are the worst hit. While deaths/day have started declining in both countries they will have a slow recovery. • Spain/France/Italy have had a very sharp increase followed by a steep fall. • Germany is the outlier in Europe as they have managed to contain the infection better than other neighbouring countries. • Turkey and Iran in West Asia have fared better than their European counterparts. There is a ‘second wave’ of infections happening in Iran. • South East Asia, Africa and ANZ have largely escaped the brunt of the disease. • It is outside the scope of this discussion to assign reasons for this differential behaviour. Speculation about natural immunity, BCG vaccination, endemic malaria, hot weather etc are continuing. • Based on the differential response, India looks set to behave more like its West Asian counterparts. The rest of South Asia may also follow suit.
  • 22. Total Cases Total Deaths Total Cases/Mn Total Deaths/Mn Total Tests Total Tests/Mn Population 1 UK 3,05,623 46,210 4,500 680 1,67,17,684 2,46,141 6,79,19,112 2 Spain 3,44,134 28,472 7,360 609 66,78,414 1,42,834 4,67,56,500 3 Peru 4,33,100 19,811 13,119 600 24,17,857 73,241 3,30,12,553 4 Italy 2,48,229 35,166 4,106 582 69,40,801 1,14,813 6,04,53,293 5 USA 48,62,285 1,58,931 14,682 480 6,09,39,722 1,84,007 33,11,82,250 6 France 1,91,295 30,294 2,930 464 29,82,302 45,680 6,52,87,125 7 Brazil 27,51,665 94,702 12,937 445 1,31,96,132 62,042 21,26,98,326 8 Mexico 4,43,813 48,012 3,439 372 10,11,050 7,834 12,90,55,063 9 Canada 1,17,031 8,947 3,098 237 41,78,195 1,10,615 3,77,72,312 10 Colombia 3,27,850 11,017 6,437 216 16,85,530 33,094 5,09,31,819 Top 10 Countries ranked by Cum Deaths/Mn
  • 23. Countries around same level as India on Deaths/Mn Total Cases Total Deaths Total Cases/Mn Total Deaths/Mn Total Tests Total Tests/Mn Population 18 Turkey 2,33,851 5,747 2,770 68 49,27,217 58,365 8,44,20,896 19 Egypt 94,640 4,888 923 48 1,35,000 1,317 10,25,00,680 20 Poland 47,469 1,732 1,254 46 23,15,210 61,180 3,78,42,640 21 Ukraine 74,219 1,764 1,698 40 10,81,146 24,736 4,37,08,000 22 Afghanistan 36,747 1,288 942 33 89,377 2,292 3,90,02,243 23 India 18,58,689 39,002 1,346 28 2,08,64,750 15,106 1,38,12,33,876 24 Algeria 31,972 1,239 728 28 4,39,19,580 25 Pakistan 2,80,461 5,999 1,268 27 20,31,955 9,184 22,12,60,636 26 Indonesia 1,13,134 5,302 413 19 15,52,141 5,669 27,37,84,671 27 Bangladesh 2,42,102 3,184 1,469 19 11,93,544 7,241 16,48,37,963 28 Philippines 1,06,330 2,104 969 19 15,85,957 14,456 10,97,10,763
  • 24. The best performing countries on Deaths/Mn Total Cases Total Deaths Total Cases/Mn Total Deaths/Mn Total Tests Total Tests/Mn Population 32 Japan 38,687 1,012 306 8 8,49,115 6,716 12,64,39,019 33 Kenya 22,597 382 419 7 3,18,376 5,910 5,38,71,430 34 S. Korea 14,423 301 281 6 15,89,780 31,006 5,12,73,372 35 Ghana 37,812 191 1,215 6 3,99,446 12,832 3,11,28,156 36 Venezuela 20,754 180 730 6 15,54,624 54,686 2,84,28,157 37 Uzbekistan 26,550 161 792 5 13,77,915 41,117 3,35,12,049 38 Nigeria 44,129 896 214 4 2,87,532 1,392 20,65,64,295 39 Malaysia 9,001 125 278 4 9,83,297 30,346 3,24,02,973 40 China 84,464 4,634 59 3 9,04,10,000 62,814 1,43,93,23,776 41 Ethiopia 19,289 336 167 3 4,44,226 3,856 11,52,00,324 42 DRC 9,133 215 102 2 8,97,79,764 43 Angola 1,280 58 39 2 64,747 1,965 3,29,47,881 44 Nepal 20,750 57 711 2 7,11,309 24,375 2,91,82,185 45 Thailand 3,321 58 48 0.8 7,49,213 10,731 6,98,16,463 46 Tanzania 509 21 9 0.4 5,98,72,381 47 Mozambique 1,973 14 63 0.4 60,473 1,930 3,13,26,757 48 Myanmar 355 6 7 0.1 1,18,127 2,170 5,44,43,404 49 Uganda 1,195 5 26 0.1 2,80,747 6,122 4,58,55,954 50 Vietnam 652 8 7 0.08 4,82,456 4,952 9,74,18,299
  • 25. Seropositive Surveys • Various surveys have been conducted but no official results have been released. Some press articles are quoted below. • May Data showed: 40% in an Ahmedabad cluster; 36% in Dharavi • June Data showed 14.4% of ALL of Kolkata • July Data showed 23.5% of ALL of Delhi • July TIFR and Niti Aayog survey showed 57% in Mumbai slums in 3 wards and 16% in non slum areas
  • 26. R0 Value http://pracriti.iitd.ac.in • At the start of the pandemic, India RO was estimated at around 2 • India RO for July 1.16 • RO values in Delhi have remained below 1 throughout July. Currently Delhi is at 0.66, Mumbai at 0.81 and Chennai at 0.86 • Values as on 3.08.20 as estimated by the IIT Delhi Model Maharashtra 1.05 Gujarat 1.17 Tamil Nadu 1.11 Andhra Pradesh 1.86 Bihar 1.81 UP 1.72
  • 27. Discussion • RO values have been steadily declining. It is fair to say that early lockdowns have helped. So has social distancing and masking. Major cities (Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai) are below 1.0 implying that the virus will decline. This is also borne out by the decline in the rate of growth of deaths/day. • Seropositive surveys (official data is not released yet) indicate surprisingly high rates of positivity. • Both these factors are positive, indicating a gradual decline in the pandemic.
  • 28. Mathematical Projections - Alternative Parameters • Cumulative Deaths • Daily Deaths 7 DMA • Day on Day Deaths Growth Rate • Growth in Active Infections • Daily Deaths/Active Infections
  • 29. • The Cumulative Deaths curve polynomial line of best fit is showing a crest forming. R Square value is very high indicating a good fit for the projection. • This forecast should be viewed with caution. What it indicates is that deaths will stop from End August. The decline in deaths per day should start earlier. The curve is highly sensitive to random daily fluctuations even though R Square is high.
  • 30. • This curve has not changed significantly since two weeks ago, • Daily deaths are expected to peak on 6th August when the 7 DMA is at around 800 • R Square Value is also good indicating a good fit for the projection
  • 31. • The Growth in day on day deaths has been showing a declining trend. • Daily deaths are slated to stop growing as per this trend line by 23rd August. • However, the R square value is very low and hence this forecast should be viewed with caution.
  • 32. • For the first time, the trend line of active infections is beginning to form a crest. This means that the rate of growth of active infections is slowing down. As per the trend, this will start declining at the All India level on 15th August. • The declining trend in active infections is most visible in Delhi already and also in Haryana.
  • 33. • Daily deaths as a percentage of active infections is another parameter we have been tracking. • This ratio is projected to reach zero on 23rd August indicating that deaths will stop. • This is a drastic projection and needs to be viewed with caution especially as the R Square value is low
  • 34. Day of Decline Start Cum Deaths on that Day Forecast Reliability (R Square) Correlative Forecast 24th May First Half of July 35,000 7th June Second Half of July 35,000 21st June End June 18,000 Mathematical Projections 4th August Cumulative Deaths Deaths to stop on End August 58,000 Very High – However the curve is very sensitive to random daily changes Daily Deaths 7 DMA 6th August for decline to start. 7 DMA value on that day will be 800 41,000 Very High Day on Day Deaths Growth Rate 7 DMA 23rd August 70,000 Low Active Infections Active Infections to decline from 15th August 48,000 High Daily Deaths/Active Infections Deaths to stop on 23th August 70,000 Low
  • 35. Directions • The last two weeks have seen a stabilizing in deaths/day. Decline in established hot spots while new areas are growing. • RO values are declining. Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai are below 1. Seropositive studies are showing high levels. Both indicators are positive. • The return of migrant workers to their home states have still not led to a major spurt in deaths in West Bengal, UP and Bihar though the trends are going up. • The trend in Active Infections is showing a crest formation for the first time led by a decline in Active Cases in Delhi. • Based on current trends, we can expect a decline in deaths per day to start around the first half of August provided Maharashtra starts declining and no new anomalies come up. This date has been fluctuating a bit but overall the likelihood of a decline starting soon is still reasonable. • The major risk is that the rural hinterland will see an explosion of cases after some time. This view has been expressed by Dr Ashish Jha of Harvard.
  • 36. Thank You! Please mail me at debubhatnagar@gmail.com with any comments. Disclaimer: These projections and analysis are not official and are the work of an amateur. They should not be the basis of any decision making.