1. Covid 19 Stats in India –
Update 1
Review of key data and presentation of a projection model
Data updated till 6.06.20
Data Sources: https://www.covid19india.org/; https://www.worldometers.info/
2. Key Highlights
• Some early signals of peaking are coming from key hotspots
• Growth in deaths/day has been slower than estimated
3. Agenda
• Presentation of key data for All India 10 Mins
• Presentation of key data for Hot Spots 10 Mins
• Discussion 5 Mins
• Presentation of update on projection model 10 Mins
• Discussion 15 Mins
5. • Testing has been ramped
up to over 120,000 tests
per day.
• The % positive rate is now
stabilizing at around 7%.
• If it starts declining with
further increase in testing it
indicates that the testing
numbers are catching up
with infections.
• Ideally it should decline
and then stabilize at a
lower level.
6. • We are crossing 10,000
new infections/day. The
doubling rate has,
however, slowed down and
currently stands at 17 days.
• However, new infections
being discovered are a
function of how many tests
are being done. The real no
of infections is probably far
higher than what is being
discovered.
• IMPORTANT – Infections
are therefore not a reliable
indicator for forecasting
future trends.
7. • Deaths are touching close
to 300/day. Cumulative
deaths are 6946 as of
6.06.20
• The polynomial line of best
fit is showing an upward
trend.
• Deaths are a more reliable
indicator for forecasting
than infections. Even here
there may be some
misreporting, but the level
is not likely to be
significant.
• Days for doubling have
slowed down here also
(from 13 to 17).
8. • Recoveries have been stabilizing
at just below 50% of total
infections. This figure needs to
increase rapidly to avoid
burdening the healthcare
system further.
9. • The death rate is stabilizing at 2.8%
• Deaths may occur afterwards from the
same group. This will push up the rate
a little.
• As discussed earlier the real level of
infections in the population may be
very much higher. In that case the real
death rate is probably much lower than
what is shown here.
• India’s death rate is lower than all
major countries.
11. • Most of India’s testing has
been in the Metros and major
cities. Small towns and rural
areas have hardly been tested.
• Delhi and Tamil Nadu have
seen aggressive testing. West
Bengal is clearly deficient.
• This graph shows that testing
has been low in Western India.
However, Mumbai is an
exception.
• However, it appears, testing
and discovery of new
infections does not have a
material impact as real rates
of infections in the population
are likely to be much higher.
12. • Ahmedabad has been the
worst affected by Covid
followed by Mumbai and
Delhi.
• Chennai cases are very
high with a low death rate.
This may be due to
aggressive testing.
• The disease has still not
significantly penetrated
outside the major hot
spots.
• Is it possible that social
distancing and other
control measures can be
more effectively
implemented in small
towns/rural areas? This
may lead to earlier peaking
out.
14. Deaths/Day
• All hot spot states are trending
upwards except for Gujarat
where the first signs of a decline
are visible.
15. • The first signs of
decline in the
growth rate of
deaths/million are
visible in
Ahmedabad and to a
lesser extent in
Mumbai.
• Other western
region cities are also
showing signs of a
decline in growth
rate starting.
• Overall, there is a
decline in the
growth rate of
deaths/day for All
India.
17. Basis for Projection
• Most countries have seen a fall in new infections and deaths per day
after some time. Some countries like India have yet to experience
this.
• The response of various counties is different in terms of when this
decline started.
• Our model will use per capita deaths and infections on the day the
decline started in each country to model a possible scenario for India.
As stated earlier, deaths are a more reliable indicator than infections
for projection.
18. Herd Immunity and R0
• There is some speculation on why the virus has declined in so many countries.
• ‘Herd Immunity’ comes when approximately 60% of the population is immune
either by a vaccine or because they have had the disease already. This has not
happened anywhere in the world.
• Social distancing, hand washing, and masking can help to reduce the R0 value
even if Herd Immunity has not been achieved. Perhaps this is the reason why
infections and deaths have declined.
• This presentation and projection model does not seek to answer this question. It
is merely based on the empirical evidence of declines having taken place in most
countries.
19. Infections Deaths Infections Deaths
Malaysia 3.04.20 29.03.20 103 1
Thailand 29.04.20 NA 42 -
Indonesia 13.05.20 NA 57 -
Bangladesh NA NA - -
Pakistan NA NA - -
Turkey 11.04.20 19.04.20 619 24
Iran 30.03.20 4.04.20 495 41
Italy 26.03.20 27.03.20 1,333 151
Spain 1.04.20 2.04.20 2,227 221
France 3.04.20 15.04.20 1,171 263
Germany 2.04.20 15.04.20 1,012 45
Russia 11.05.20 NA 1,517 -
UK 6.05.20 21.04.20 2,962 298
USA 24.04.20 21.04.20 2,797 138
Brazil NA NA - -
Date of Decline Start Per Million on that date
22. Country Wise Variations
• The disease has impacted various countries differently. Broadly, the following clusters
emerge:
• UK/USA are the worst hit. While deaths/day have started declining in both countries they will have a slow
recovery.
• Spain/France/Italy have had a very sharp increase followed by a steep fall.
• Germany is the outlier in Europe as they have managed to contain the infection better than other
neighbouring countries.
• Turkey and Iran in West Asia have fared better than their European counterparts. There is a ‘second wave’ of
infections happening in Iran but it may be due to enhanced testing as deaths/day continue to decline.
• South East Asia, Africa and ANZ have largely escaped the brunt of the disease.
• It is outside the scope of this discussion to assign reasons for this differential behaviour.
Speculation about natural immunity, BCG vaccination, endemic malaria, hot weather etc
are continuing.
• Based on the differential response, India looks set to behave more like its West Asian
counterparts. The rest of South Asia may also follow suit.
23. Projection Update
Population Per Mn Deaths on Day Decline Starts Projected Deaths on Day Decline Starts
Low Medium High Low Medium High
India 1,37,843,247 25 40 50 34,461 55,137 68,922
Cumulative Deaths as of 23.05.20 3,867
Doubling
Rate
5.06.20 18.06.20 1.07.20 14.07.20 27.07.20
13 days as
on 23.05.20
7,734 15,468 30,936 61,872 123,744
Cumulative Deaths as of 6.06.20 6,946 UPDATE
Doubling
Rate
23.06.20 10.07.20 26.07.20 12.08.20
17 days as
on 6.06.20
13,892 27,784 55,568 111,136
24. Directions
• Our earlier forecast was that cumulative deaths will reach the level by when the decline in
daily deaths should start in the first half of July 2020. However, growth in the death rate has
declined from doubling in 13 days to 17 days. This is driven by a decline in Ahmedabad and
levelling off in other Western India Cities.
• At the current rate of growth in deaths, we are likely to see a decline commencing in daily
deaths/day in the second half of July. This may get further postponed if growth in death rates
decline further in current hot spots.
• The ray of hope is that the major cities should start declining in the next month or so. This
will enable the economy to start firing. As discussed earlier, the diffusion of the infection
across the country may be a good thing as we may be better equipped as a society to handle
relatively low rates of infection in small towns and rural areas.
• The impact of the monsoon is an imponderable. The 1918 Spanish flu declined in the
monsoon to reappear in a more virulent form. Hopefully, this will not happen with Covid 19
25. • Two representative country
curves have been shown here –
Italy and USA.
• After reaching its peak rapidly,
Italy has declined also rapidly.
• The build up in the USA has been
slower as the infection branched
out from the New York epicentre.
After reaching the peak,
infections have started declining
gradually. Parts of the USA are still
growing.
• It is likely that India will follow a
curve more like the USA.
Infections have been relatively
slow in building up and while
major cities in Western India may
be close to peaking the rest of the
country is still growing.
26. Thank You!
Please mail me at debubhatnagar@gmail.com
with any comments.
Disclaimer: These projections and analysis is not official and are the work of an
amateur. They should not be the basis of any decision making.