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Covid 19 Stats in India –
Update 1
Review of key data and presentation of a projection model
Data updated till 6.06.20
Data Sources: https://www.covid19india.org/; https://www.worldometers.info/
Key Highlights
• Some early signals of peaking are coming from key hotspots
• Growth in deaths/day has been slower than estimated
Agenda
• Presentation of key data for All India 10 Mins
• Presentation of key data for Hot Spots 10 Mins
• Discussion 5 Mins
• Presentation of update on projection model 10 Mins
• Discussion 15 Mins
All India Data
• Testing has been ramped
up to over 120,000 tests
per day.
• The % positive rate is now
stabilizing at around 7%.
• If it starts declining with
further increase in testing it
indicates that the testing
numbers are catching up
with infections.
• Ideally it should decline
and then stabilize at a
lower level.
• We are crossing 10,000
new infections/day. The
doubling rate has,
however, slowed down and
currently stands at 17 days.
• However, new infections
being discovered are a
function of how many tests
are being done. The real no
of infections is probably far
higher than what is being
discovered.
• IMPORTANT – Infections
are therefore not a reliable
indicator for forecasting
future trends.
• Deaths are touching close
to 300/day. Cumulative
deaths are 6946 as of
6.06.20
• The polynomial line of best
fit is showing an upward
trend.
• Deaths are a more reliable
indicator for forecasting
than infections. Even here
there may be some
misreporting, but the level
is not likely to be
significant.
• Days for doubling have
slowed down here also
(from 13 to 17).
• Recoveries have been stabilizing
at just below 50% of total
infections. This figure needs to
increase rapidly to avoid
burdening the healthcare
system further.
• The death rate is stabilizing at 2.8%
• Deaths may occur afterwards from the
same group. This will push up the rate
a little.
• As discussed earlier the real level of
infections in the population may be
very much higher. In that case the real
death rate is probably much lower than
what is shown here.
• India’s death rate is lower than all
major countries.
Hot Spots Data
• Most of India’s testing has
been in the Metros and major
cities. Small towns and rural
areas have hardly been tested.
• Delhi and Tamil Nadu have
seen aggressive testing. West
Bengal is clearly deficient.
• This graph shows that testing
has been low in Western India.
However, Mumbai is an
exception.
• However, it appears, testing
and discovery of new
infections does not have a
material impact as real rates
of infections in the population
are likely to be much higher.
• Ahmedabad has been the
worst affected by Covid
followed by Mumbai and
Delhi.
• Chennai cases are very
high with a low death rate.
This may be due to
aggressive testing.
• The disease has still not
significantly penetrated
outside the major hot
spots.
• Is it possible that social
distancing and other
control measures can be
more effectively
implemented in small
towns/rural areas? This
may lead to earlier peaking
out.
Covid 19 stats in india update 1 8.06.20
Deaths/Day
• All hot spot states are trending
upwards except for Gujarat
where the first signs of a decline
are visible.
• The first signs of
decline in the
growth rate of
deaths/million are
visible in
Ahmedabad and to a
lesser extent in
Mumbai.
• Other western
region cities are also
showing signs of a
decline in growth
rate starting.
• Overall, there is a
decline in the
growth rate of
deaths/day for All
India.
Projection Model for India
Basis for Projection
• Most countries have seen a fall in new infections and deaths per day
after some time. Some countries like India have yet to experience
this.
• The response of various counties is different in terms of when this
decline started.
• Our model will use per capita deaths and infections on the day the
decline started in each country to model a possible scenario for India.
As stated earlier, deaths are a more reliable indicator than infections
for projection.
Herd Immunity and R0
• There is some speculation on why the virus has declined in so many countries.
• ‘Herd Immunity’ comes when approximately 60% of the population is immune
either by a vaccine or because they have had the disease already. This has not
happened anywhere in the world.
• Social distancing, hand washing, and masking can help to reduce the R0 value
even if Herd Immunity has not been achieved. Perhaps this is the reason why
infections and deaths have declined.
• This presentation and projection model does not seek to answer this question. It
is merely based on the empirical evidence of declines having taken place in most
countries.
Infections Deaths Infections Deaths
Malaysia 3.04.20 29.03.20 103 1
Thailand 29.04.20 NA 42 -
Indonesia 13.05.20 NA 57 -
Bangladesh NA NA - -
Pakistan NA NA - -
Turkey 11.04.20 19.04.20 619 24
Iran 30.03.20 4.04.20 495 41
Italy 26.03.20 27.03.20 1,333 151
Spain 1.04.20 2.04.20 2,227 221
France 3.04.20 15.04.20 1,171 263
Germany 2.04.20 15.04.20 1,012 45
Russia 11.05.20 NA 1,517 -
UK 6.05.20 21.04.20 2,962 298
USA 24.04.20 21.04.20 2,797 138
Brazil NA NA - -
Date of Decline Start Per Million on that date
Daily Deaths and Infections - Spain
Daily Deaths and Infections - Turkey
Country Wise Variations
• The disease has impacted various countries differently. Broadly, the following clusters
emerge:
• UK/USA are the worst hit. While deaths/day have started declining in both countries they will have a slow
recovery.
• Spain/France/Italy have had a very sharp increase followed by a steep fall.
• Germany is the outlier in Europe as they have managed to contain the infection better than other
neighbouring countries.
• Turkey and Iran in West Asia have fared better than their European counterparts. There is a ‘second wave’ of
infections happening in Iran but it may be due to enhanced testing as deaths/day continue to decline.
• South East Asia, Africa and ANZ have largely escaped the brunt of the disease.
• It is outside the scope of this discussion to assign reasons for this differential behaviour.
Speculation about natural immunity, BCG vaccination, endemic malaria, hot weather etc
are continuing.
• Based on the differential response, India looks set to behave more like its West Asian
counterparts. The rest of South Asia may also follow suit.
Projection Update
Population Per Mn Deaths on Day Decline Starts Projected Deaths on Day Decline Starts
Low Medium High Low Medium High
India 1,37,843,247 25 40 50 34,461 55,137 68,922
Cumulative Deaths as of 23.05.20 3,867
Doubling
Rate
5.06.20 18.06.20 1.07.20 14.07.20 27.07.20
13 days as
on 23.05.20
7,734 15,468 30,936 61,872 123,744
Cumulative Deaths as of 6.06.20 6,946 UPDATE
Doubling
Rate
23.06.20 10.07.20 26.07.20 12.08.20
17 days as
on 6.06.20
13,892 27,784 55,568 111,136
Directions
• Our earlier forecast was that cumulative deaths will reach the level by when the decline in
daily deaths should start in the first half of July 2020. However, growth in the death rate has
declined from doubling in 13 days to 17 days. This is driven by a decline in Ahmedabad and
levelling off in other Western India Cities.
• At the current rate of growth in deaths, we are likely to see a decline commencing in daily
deaths/day in the second half of July. This may get further postponed if growth in death rates
decline further in current hot spots.
• The ray of hope is that the major cities should start declining in the next month or so. This
will enable the economy to start firing. As discussed earlier, the diffusion of the infection
across the country may be a good thing as we may be better equipped as a society to handle
relatively low rates of infection in small towns and rural areas.
• The impact of the monsoon is an imponderable. The 1918 Spanish flu declined in the
monsoon to reappear in a more virulent form. Hopefully, this will not happen with Covid 19
• Two representative country
curves have been shown here –
Italy and USA.
• After reaching its peak rapidly,
Italy has declined also rapidly.
• The build up in the USA has been
slower as the infection branched
out from the New York epicentre.
After reaching the peak,
infections have started declining
gradually. Parts of the USA are still
growing.
• It is likely that India will follow a
curve more like the USA.
Infections have been relatively
slow in building up and while
major cities in Western India may
be close to peaking the rest of the
country is still growing.
Thank You!
Please mail me at debubhatnagar@gmail.com
with any comments.
Disclaimer: These projections and analysis is not official and are the work of an
amateur. They should not be the basis of any decision making.

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Covid 19 stats in india update 1 8.06.20

  • 1. Covid 19 Stats in India – Update 1 Review of key data and presentation of a projection model Data updated till 6.06.20 Data Sources: https://www.covid19india.org/; https://www.worldometers.info/
  • 2. Key Highlights • Some early signals of peaking are coming from key hotspots • Growth in deaths/day has been slower than estimated
  • 3. Agenda • Presentation of key data for All India 10 Mins • Presentation of key data for Hot Spots 10 Mins • Discussion 5 Mins • Presentation of update on projection model 10 Mins • Discussion 15 Mins
  • 5. • Testing has been ramped up to over 120,000 tests per day. • The % positive rate is now stabilizing at around 7%. • If it starts declining with further increase in testing it indicates that the testing numbers are catching up with infections. • Ideally it should decline and then stabilize at a lower level.
  • 6. • We are crossing 10,000 new infections/day. The doubling rate has, however, slowed down and currently stands at 17 days. • However, new infections being discovered are a function of how many tests are being done. The real no of infections is probably far higher than what is being discovered. • IMPORTANT – Infections are therefore not a reliable indicator for forecasting future trends.
  • 7. • Deaths are touching close to 300/day. Cumulative deaths are 6946 as of 6.06.20 • The polynomial line of best fit is showing an upward trend. • Deaths are a more reliable indicator for forecasting than infections. Even here there may be some misreporting, but the level is not likely to be significant. • Days for doubling have slowed down here also (from 13 to 17).
  • 8. • Recoveries have been stabilizing at just below 50% of total infections. This figure needs to increase rapidly to avoid burdening the healthcare system further.
  • 9. • The death rate is stabilizing at 2.8% • Deaths may occur afterwards from the same group. This will push up the rate a little. • As discussed earlier the real level of infections in the population may be very much higher. In that case the real death rate is probably much lower than what is shown here. • India’s death rate is lower than all major countries.
  • 11. • Most of India’s testing has been in the Metros and major cities. Small towns and rural areas have hardly been tested. • Delhi and Tamil Nadu have seen aggressive testing. West Bengal is clearly deficient. • This graph shows that testing has been low in Western India. However, Mumbai is an exception. • However, it appears, testing and discovery of new infections does not have a material impact as real rates of infections in the population are likely to be much higher.
  • 12. • Ahmedabad has been the worst affected by Covid followed by Mumbai and Delhi. • Chennai cases are very high with a low death rate. This may be due to aggressive testing. • The disease has still not significantly penetrated outside the major hot spots. • Is it possible that social distancing and other control measures can be more effectively implemented in small towns/rural areas? This may lead to earlier peaking out.
  • 14. Deaths/Day • All hot spot states are trending upwards except for Gujarat where the first signs of a decline are visible.
  • 15. • The first signs of decline in the growth rate of deaths/million are visible in Ahmedabad and to a lesser extent in Mumbai. • Other western region cities are also showing signs of a decline in growth rate starting. • Overall, there is a decline in the growth rate of deaths/day for All India.
  • 17. Basis for Projection • Most countries have seen a fall in new infections and deaths per day after some time. Some countries like India have yet to experience this. • The response of various counties is different in terms of when this decline started. • Our model will use per capita deaths and infections on the day the decline started in each country to model a possible scenario for India. As stated earlier, deaths are a more reliable indicator than infections for projection.
  • 18. Herd Immunity and R0 • There is some speculation on why the virus has declined in so many countries. • ‘Herd Immunity’ comes when approximately 60% of the population is immune either by a vaccine or because they have had the disease already. This has not happened anywhere in the world. • Social distancing, hand washing, and masking can help to reduce the R0 value even if Herd Immunity has not been achieved. Perhaps this is the reason why infections and deaths have declined. • This presentation and projection model does not seek to answer this question. It is merely based on the empirical evidence of declines having taken place in most countries.
  • 19. Infections Deaths Infections Deaths Malaysia 3.04.20 29.03.20 103 1 Thailand 29.04.20 NA 42 - Indonesia 13.05.20 NA 57 - Bangladesh NA NA - - Pakistan NA NA - - Turkey 11.04.20 19.04.20 619 24 Iran 30.03.20 4.04.20 495 41 Italy 26.03.20 27.03.20 1,333 151 Spain 1.04.20 2.04.20 2,227 221 France 3.04.20 15.04.20 1,171 263 Germany 2.04.20 15.04.20 1,012 45 Russia 11.05.20 NA 1,517 - UK 6.05.20 21.04.20 2,962 298 USA 24.04.20 21.04.20 2,797 138 Brazil NA NA - - Date of Decline Start Per Million on that date
  • 20. Daily Deaths and Infections - Spain
  • 21. Daily Deaths and Infections - Turkey
  • 22. Country Wise Variations • The disease has impacted various countries differently. Broadly, the following clusters emerge: • UK/USA are the worst hit. While deaths/day have started declining in both countries they will have a slow recovery. • Spain/France/Italy have had a very sharp increase followed by a steep fall. • Germany is the outlier in Europe as they have managed to contain the infection better than other neighbouring countries. • Turkey and Iran in West Asia have fared better than their European counterparts. There is a ‘second wave’ of infections happening in Iran but it may be due to enhanced testing as deaths/day continue to decline. • South East Asia, Africa and ANZ have largely escaped the brunt of the disease. • It is outside the scope of this discussion to assign reasons for this differential behaviour. Speculation about natural immunity, BCG vaccination, endemic malaria, hot weather etc are continuing. • Based on the differential response, India looks set to behave more like its West Asian counterparts. The rest of South Asia may also follow suit.
  • 23. Projection Update Population Per Mn Deaths on Day Decline Starts Projected Deaths on Day Decline Starts Low Medium High Low Medium High India 1,37,843,247 25 40 50 34,461 55,137 68,922 Cumulative Deaths as of 23.05.20 3,867 Doubling Rate 5.06.20 18.06.20 1.07.20 14.07.20 27.07.20 13 days as on 23.05.20 7,734 15,468 30,936 61,872 123,744 Cumulative Deaths as of 6.06.20 6,946 UPDATE Doubling Rate 23.06.20 10.07.20 26.07.20 12.08.20 17 days as on 6.06.20 13,892 27,784 55,568 111,136
  • 24. Directions • Our earlier forecast was that cumulative deaths will reach the level by when the decline in daily deaths should start in the first half of July 2020. However, growth in the death rate has declined from doubling in 13 days to 17 days. This is driven by a decline in Ahmedabad and levelling off in other Western India Cities. • At the current rate of growth in deaths, we are likely to see a decline commencing in daily deaths/day in the second half of July. This may get further postponed if growth in death rates decline further in current hot spots. • The ray of hope is that the major cities should start declining in the next month or so. This will enable the economy to start firing. As discussed earlier, the diffusion of the infection across the country may be a good thing as we may be better equipped as a society to handle relatively low rates of infection in small towns and rural areas. • The impact of the monsoon is an imponderable. The 1918 Spanish flu declined in the monsoon to reappear in a more virulent form. Hopefully, this will not happen with Covid 19
  • 25. • Two representative country curves have been shown here – Italy and USA. • After reaching its peak rapidly, Italy has declined also rapidly. • The build up in the USA has been slower as the infection branched out from the New York epicentre. After reaching the peak, infections have started declining gradually. Parts of the USA are still growing. • It is likely that India will follow a curve more like the USA. Infections have been relatively slow in building up and while major cities in Western India may be close to peaking the rest of the country is still growing.
  • 26. Thank You! Please mail me at debubhatnagar@gmail.com with any comments. Disclaimer: These projections and analysis is not official and are the work of an amateur. They should not be the basis of any decision making.