2009 Spasojevic Serbia

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2009 Spasojevic Serbia

  1. 1. Social Cleavages and Consolidation of Democracy in Serbia 2000-2007 extended (but not improved) version IUC, 2009
  2. 2. Social cleavages <ul><li>Long-lasting division within society, based on fundamental issues </li></ul><ul><li>- ideology </li></ul><ul><li>- political organization </li></ul><ul><li>- socio-demographic group </li></ul><ul><li>Lipset and Rokkan freezing hypothesis </li></ul><ul><li>National and industrial revolutions </li></ul><ul><li>Center-periphery, land-industry, state-church, owners-worker </li></ul>
  3. 3. Lipset-Rokkan hypothesis Ideological, identity-based oppositions Interest opposiotns Opposition within National elites Local-regional oppositions Functional axe Teritorial axe
  4. 4. Critics and inovations… <ul><li>materialist vs. postmaterialsts </li></ul><ul><li>What is less than social cleavege? (Barolini, Mair, Deegan-Krause) </li></ul><ul><li>- ideology </li></ul><ul><li>- political organization </li></ul><ul><li>- socio-demographic group </li></ul>
  5. 5. Cleavages and postCommunism <ul><li>Elites project, not connected with social bases (Attila Agh) </li></ul><ul><li>Not based as class conflicts (Offe, Preuss) </li></ul><ul><li>missing middle approach, modernization approach, comparative approach (Evans, Whitefield) </li></ul><ul><li>Kitschelt communists legacy study </li></ul>
  6. 6. New ideas on PostComm Cleaveges <ul><li>Fon Beyme: </li></ul><ul><li>-ancient regime - transformational regime </li></ul><ul><li>- centralization – decentralization </li></ul><ul><li>- nationalism – Occidentalism </li></ul><ul><li>(traditionalism-modernism (Markus), “return to ourselves or return to Europe” </li></ul><ul><li>east-west, pre modern- modern –postmodern, Inglehart) </li></ul>
  7. 7. The main line of party grouping Market allocation Po litical allocation Libertarno- cosmopolit. Autori tharian particularists
  8. 8. Consolidation meets cleaveges <ul><li>Ideological vs interest based </li></ul><ul><li>- competition vs cooperation </li></ul><ul><li>- zero sum game vs bargaining (consensus) </li></ul><ul><li>Constellation – cross-cutting ,overlapping, reinforcing </li></ul><ul><li>Hierarchy of cleavages </li></ul>
  9. 9. Serbian case – history via cleavages <ul><li>1990 – president of Serbia </li></ul><ul><li>1996/97 – local elections defeat </li></ul><ul><li>1999 – NATO bombing </li></ul>
  10. 10. History via cleavages 2 <ul><li>2000 – founding elections </li></ul><ul><li>Ancient regime – New regime cleavage </li></ul><ul><li>2002 </li></ul><ul><li>traditionalists – modernists </li></ul><ul><li>2003 - Djindjic assassination </li></ul><ul><li>2004. </li></ul><ul><li>Transitional losers – winners </li></ul><ul><li>Ancient regime – New regime? </li></ul><ul><li>2006 – same cleavages </li></ul><ul><li>(Milosevic dies) </li></ul><ul><li>2008- Kosovo independence? </li></ul>radicals - Serbian democrats - democrats Ancient regime - new regime (democratic)
  11. 11. Cleavages in Serbia - summary <ul><li>Ancient regime – new regime </li></ul><ul><li>Traditionalism – modernism (Occidentalism) </li></ul><ul><li>(pre modern, modern and postmodern - Croatia) </li></ul><ul><li>Transitional losers - transitional winners </li></ul><ul><li>Center – periphery </li></ul><ul><li>Materialism – post materialism </li></ul>
  12. 12. Consolidation and cleavages in Serbia 1. Traditionalism – modernism (Occidentalism) 2. Ancient regime – new regime 3. Transitional losers - transitional winners 4. Center – periphery 5. . Materialism – post materialism Ideological conflicts Interest opposition National elite competition Local and regional conflicts 1. 2 . 3 . 4 . 5 .
  13. 13. Conse q uences – 2008. <ul><li>Reinforcing cleavages – divided society </li></ul><ul><li>Democracy is not the only game in the town – consensus across cleavages? </li></ul><ul><li>Social exclusion and frustration </li></ul><ul><li>We vs them </li></ul>
  14. 14. Nightmare continues… <ul><li>2007- new elections and new government </li></ul><ul><li>Democrats (stronger) and Serbian democrats </li></ul><ul><li>Kosovo independence/”independence” </li></ul><ul><li>Riots in Belgrade (feb 2008), and break up of coalition </li></ul>
  15. 15. New elections – may 08 <ul><li>circumstances? </li></ul><ul><li>Kosovo - international perspective </li></ul><ul><li>Economy – middle class (investments, development) </li></ul><ul><li>Kosovo vs. European Union </li></ul><ul><li>Two block – weak middle (Serbian Dems) </li></ul><ul><li>New Government - democrats and Socialists </li></ul>
  16. 16. Long term consequences <ul><li>Europe, not Kosovo (veeery long term) </li></ul><ul><li>Changing type of party system – from polarized pluralism toward moderate pluralism (Sartori) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Division among radicals – new “less” radical party – 20% percent and more </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Better prospects for democracy </li></ul>
  17. 17. Short and mid term consequences <ul><li>Europe not Kosovo, but how? </li></ul><ul><li>(incl. EU foreign policy ) </li></ul><ul><li>Independence recognition – how to react? </li></ul><ul><li>Nationalistic Rhetoric (or “just” strategy) </li></ul><ul><li>International court of Justice – UN Assembly (Macedonia, Montenegro) </li></ul>
  18. 18. To be continued… <ul><li>Serbian identity and belonging? </li></ul><ul><li>Is there a real choice? Identification based on what (lack of mobilization force)? Cant be too happy about EU (regulations) </li></ul><ul><li>Region – Dear Ivo Sanader </li></ul><ul><li>EU? </li></ul><ul><li>NATO? (officially neutral, not recognized) </li></ul><ul><li>SEKA </li></ul>
  19. 19. What cleaves Serbia? <ul><li>Economy - still not clear position, just matter of redistribution within narrow space (still transitional economy, Krastev) </li></ul><ul><li>Big ideological cleavage – narrowed space (antidiscrimination law) </li></ul><ul><li>no ancient regime cleavage any more </li></ul><ul><li>center- periphery (Vojvodina case) </li></ul>
  20. 20. The main line of party grouping – future? Market allocation Po litical allocation Libertarno- cosmopolit. Autori tharian particularists

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