NJ Labor Market Information: What's Hot and What's Not?

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NJ Labor Market Information: What's Hot and What's Not?

  1. 1. New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Division of Labor Market & Demographic Research New Jersey’s Current Employment Situation &Industry & Occupational Employment Outlook Prepared: August 2012
  2. 2. The Great Recession Officially the Recession spanned 18 months, December 2007 – June 2009 Longest Postwar Recession on record 7 million jobs lost nationwide Unemployment levels not seen in over 30 years
  3. 3. New Jersey Total Nonfarm Employment vs. Monthly Change January 2008 - June 2012 45,000 Jan 08 4,097,400 Recovery From Low Point: 77,800 (30%) 35,000 4,000,000 June 12 3,907,500 Recessionary Low 25,000 Point: Sep 10 3,836,400 3,900,000 261,100 Total Recessionary Job 14,400 Total EmploymentMonthly Change 15,000 11,000 Loss 12,700 10,200 9,900 8,800 8,000 8,800 3,800,000 6,700 7,000 6,200 5,000 2,400 3,800 4,000 3,800 3,200 2,700 3,200 2,000 2,000 1,500 500 -200 -1,200 3,700,000 -1,800 -1,500 -1,400 -2,000 -2,900 -5,000 -3,700 -3,700 -5,900 -6,000 -7,600 -7,900 -7,900 -8,400 -9,900 -10,000 -10,700 -10,500 -10,500 -11,500 -11,100 -12,400 -12,400 3,600,000 -15,000 -13,400 -13,700 -16,500 -18,200 -18,500 -20,400 -21,500 -21,700 -25,000 3,500,000 Aug-08 Sep-08 Aug-09 Sep-09 Aug-10 Sep-10 Aug-11 Sep-11 Jan-08 Jun-08 Jan-09 Jun-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Jan-11 Jun-11 Jan-12 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Nov-08 Dec-08 Nov-09 Dec-09 Nov-10 Dec-10 Nov-11 Dec-11 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Monthly Employment Change Total Nonfarm Employment
  4. 4. New Jersey Private Sector Employment vs. Monthly Change January 2008 - June 2012 45,000 3,450,000 Jan. 08 3,445,800 Recovery From Low Point: 89,700 (36%) 3,400,000 35,000 Jun. 12 3,350,000 3,287,300 Recessionary Low Point: 25,000 Feb. 10 3,197,600 3,300,000 Private Sector Employment 15,800 3,250,000Monthly Change 15,000 12,100 10,400 9,400 7,700 7,400 6,800 3,200,000 6,700 6,600 7,600 6,400 5,800 4,700 5,000 3,100 4,200 248,200 Prvt. Sect. Recessionary Job Loss 2,000 2,200 2,900 2,700 2,500 2,200 800 3,150,000 100 -300 -200 -1,000 -1,600 -1,600 -1,400 -2,100 3,100,000 -5,000 -4,200 -4,100 -3,600 -5,100 -5,000 -5,800 -6,100 -7,300 -7,300 -7,800 -9,500 -9,600 -9,900 3,050,000 -11,900 -12,900 -12,700 -15,000 -13,300 -14,700 -15,600 3,000,000 -18,100 -20,400 -20,300 -21,300 -20,800 -25,000 2,950,000 Aug-08 Sep-08 Aug-09 Sep-09 Aug-10 Sep-10 Aug-11 Sep-11 Jan-08 Jun-08 Jan-09 Jun-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Jan-11 Jun-11 Jan-12 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Apr-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Monthly Change Private Sector Employment
  5. 5. Monthly Total Employment Change20,000 New Jersey: June 2011 - June 2012 14,40015,000 10,200 9,90010,000 8,800 6,700 7,000 5,000 3,800 3,200 2,700 3,200 1,500 0 -1,200 -3,700 -5,000 Change Over the Year = +65,000 Jobs-10,000 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12
  6. 6. Monthly Private Sector Employment Change June 2011 - June 201215,000 12,100 10,40010,000 7,700 7,400 7,600 6,800 6,600 4,700 4,200 5,000 2,500 800 0 -5,000 -3,600 -7,300-10,000 Change Over the Year = +59,100 Jobs-15,000 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12
  7. 7. Monthly Employment Change: June 2012 LEISURE & HOSPITALITY, +6,100 EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES , +2,500 GOVERNMENT, +2,300 PROF. AND BUSINESS SERVICES , +2,000 FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES , +1,200 Total Nonfarm June Change +9,900 OTHER SERVICES, +1,100 INFORMATION, 0 CONSTRUCTION , -500 MANUFACTURING, -2,400 TRADE, TRANS. UTIL. , -2,500-5,000 -3,000 -1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 7,000
  8. 8. New Jersey Private Sector Employment Change by Industry June 2011 - June 2012 EDUCATION & HEALTH SERVICES +28,200 LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY +20,900 PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES +10,600 OTHER SERVICES +9,300 TRADE, TRANSPORTATI ON, UTILITIES +5,600 FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES +700 Total Private Sector Change CONSTRUCTION -3,800 Over the Year: +59,100 Jobs MANUFACTURING -4,500 INFORMATION -8,100-10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
  9. 9. Unemployment Rates, New Jersey vs. United States: June 2011 - June 201210.0 New Jersey June 12 New Jersey 9.6% June 11 9.4% 9.5 9.0 United States June 11 9.1% United States 8.5 June 12 8.2% 8.0 Change Over the Year = +0.2 ppt 7.5 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 United States New Jersey
  10. 10. Labor Force Participation Rates: New Jersey vs. United States June 2011 - June 201267.066.5 New Jersey 66.1 66.1 66.0 66.0 66.0 66.066.0 65.9 65.9 65.9 65.9 65.8 65.8 65.865.565.064.5 United States 64.1 64.1 64.1 64.1 64.0 64.0 64.064.0 63.9 63.8 63.8 63.8 63.7 63.663.563.0 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 New Jersey United States
  11. 11. Unemployed New Jersey Residents June 2011 - June 2012465,000 Change Over the Year = +14,300 Persons455,000 441,700445,000435,000 429,500 429,500 427,400 427,300 423,900 423,300425,000 420,100 416,200 417,200 414,000 412,700415,000 411,900405,000395,000385,000375,000 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12
  12. 12. New Jersey Counties Unemployment Rates - June 2012 (Preliminary, Not Seasonally Adjusted) SUSSEX 9.4% PASSAIC 11.7% BERGEN WARREN 8.9% 8% MORRIS 7.8% ESSEX 11.6% HUDSON 11.4% UNION 10.3% HUNTERDON 7.7% SOMERSET 8.3% Unemployment Rates 7.7% - 8.3% MIDDLESEX 9.5% 8.8% - 9.7% MERCER MONMOUTH 8.8% 10.3% - 10.9% 9.3% 11.2% - 11.7% 12.8% - 14.0% BURLINGTON OCEAN 9.7% 10.5% CAMDEN 11.3% GLOUCESTER 10.9% SALEM 11.2% ATLANTIC 12.8% CUMBERLAND 14%Data Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)Prepared by: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Bureau of Labor Market Information July 2012 CAPE MAY 10.3% 0 12.5 25 ² 50 Miles
  13. 13. New Jersey Counties Unemployed Residents - June 2012 (Preliminary, Not Seasonally Adjusted) SUSSEX 8,000 PASSAIC 29,000 BERGEN WARREN 43,200 4,800 MORRIS 21,700 ESSEX 43,400 HUDSON 36,300 UNION 28,800 HUNTERDON 5,600 SOMERSET 15,100 Unemployed Residents 3,500 - 8,000 MIDDLESEX 42,400 10,200 - 15,100 MERCER MONMOUTH 18,400 17,500 - 23,800 31,200 28,500 - 31,200 36,300 - 43,400 BURLINGTON OCEAN 23,800 28,500 CAMDEN 30,600 GLOUCESTER 17,500 SALEM 3,500 ATLANTIC 18,500 CUMBERLAND 10,200 CAPE MAY 7,000Data Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)Prepared by: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development Bureau of Labor Market Information 0 12.5 25 50 Miles June 2012
  14. 14. Key Industry Sectors• Life Sciences (Biotechnology/Pharmaceutical)• Transportation/Logistics/Distribution• Finance Services• Advanced Manufacturing• Health Care• Entertainment, Arts, Retail, Leisure and Hospitality
  15. 15. Key Industry Clusters account for two thirds of all employment & wages statewideIndustry Cluster Employment and Wages: 2010 Annual* Annual Averages* Total* Percent of Total*Industry Cluster Establishments Employment Wages Wages Employment WagesAdvanced Manufacturing 3,431 124,012 $95,925 $11,895,844,365 4.0% 6.8%Health Care 21,307 420,862 $50,772 $21,368,037,945 13.4% 12.2%Financial Services 12,570 185,471 $104,418 $19,366,470,513 5.9% 11.1%Technology 25,780 313,164 $100,074 $31,339,672,580 10.0% 17.9%Transportation, Logistics and Distribution 25,985 354,618 $64,914 $23,019,845,572 11.3% 13.2%Leisure, Hospitality and Retail 55,677 767,518 $26,709 $20,499,694,337 24.5% 11.7%Biopharmaceutical & Life Science 3,145 122,729 $114,765 $14,084,934,866 3.9% 8.1%All Cluster Industries 142,992 2,083,205 $56,909 $118,553,953,666 66.5% 67.9%All Industries, NJ 261,483 3,133,821 $55,742 $174,686,813,420 100.0% 100.0%Note: Industry Cluster componet industries are not mutually exclusive and do not include all New Jersey industry sectors. Therefore the sum of industy cluster annual averages will not equal statewide averages. Sum of industry cluster percentages of totals will not equal 100 percent.Source: New Jersey Department of Labor & Workforce Development, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages (QCEW) 2010 Annual AveragesPrepared by: NJLWD, Division of Labor Market & Demographic Research, Bureau of Labor Market Information, November 2011
  16. 16. • Established to focus on the specific needs of key industries in the state in order to connect employers, job seekers, the state’s One Stop Career Centers and educational institutions to achieve the common goal of helping current job seekers develop relevant skills that lead to job opportunities, helping employers find qualified employees, and to ensure that New Jerseyans have access to training and educational opportunities that lead to the jobs of the future.
  17. 17. Annual Employment Change in New Jersey 1939-2011 250Employment Change (Thousands) 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200 1939-1940 1949-1950 1959-1960 1969-1970 1979-1980 1989-1990 1999-2000 2009-2010
  18. 18. Annual Employment 1939-2011 4,500 4,000Employment (Thousands) 3,500 3,000 3,856,200 2,500 3,498,600 2,000 1,500 About 350,000 Jobs Over 1,000 Last Twenty Years 500 0.49% Annual Growth 0 2011 1987 1939 1942 1945 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
  19. 19. Greater Projected Growth for the Nation than New Jersey 1.6 1.4Annual Percent Growth ‘10-‘20 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 US 0.8 0.6 NJ 0.4 0.2 0.0 Total Nonfarm
  20. 20. Small Increase Projected for Goods Producing Industries 1.6 1.4Annual Percent Growth ‘10-‘20 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.8 US 0.8 0.6 NJ 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total Nonfarm Goods Producing
  21. 21. Slightly Larger Increase Projected for Service-Providing Industries 1.6 1.4 1.5Annual Percent Growth ‘10-‘20 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.8 US 0.8 0.8 0.6 NJ 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total Nonfarm Goods Producing Service-Providing
  22. 22. New Jersey’s Projected Growth 350,000 300,000 317,100 297,300Employment Growth ‘10 – ’20 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 19,900 0 Total Nonfarm Goods Producing Service-Providing
  23. 23. The Nation’s Projected Growth 25,000Employment Growth ‘10 – ’20 20,000 19,741.2 17,950.0 (Thousands) 15,000 10,000 5,000 1,791.3 0 Total Nonfarm Goods Producing Service Providing
  24. 24. Projected Growth by Major Industry 3.0 Group 2.0Annual Percent Growth 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 US NJ -3.0
  25. 25. Annual Growth Rate (%) -14.0 -12.0 -10.0 2.0 -4.0 0.0 -8.0 -6.0 -2.090-9191-9292-9393-9494-9595-9696-9797-9898-9999-0000-0101-0202-0303-0404-0505-0606-07 Goods Producing Industries07-0808-0909-1010-11
  26. 26. Construction Projected to Drive Goods Producing Industries Upward 40,000 36,700 30,000Employment Change ‘10-‘20 20,000 19,900 10,000 0 -10,000 -17,400 -20,000 -30,000 Goods Producing Manufacturing Construction
  27. 27. These Industries Account for Over Half the Projected Decline in Manufacturing 0 Machinery M -2,000 -3,800 Manufacturing AEmployment Change ‘10-‘20 -4,000 N -1,500 Computer and U -6,000 F -1,400 Electronic Products -8,000 A -1,300 C -1,300 Chemical -10,000 T U -9,300 Manufacturing -12,000 R Paper Manufacturing -14,000 I N -16,000 G Printing and Related -18,000 -17,400 Support -20,000
  28. 28. Annual Growth Rate (%) 1.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 2.0 3.0 4.090-9191-9292-9393-9494-9595-9696-9797-9898-9999-0000-0101-0202-0303-0404-0505-0606-07 Service Providing Industries07-0808-0909-1010-11
  29. 29. 2010 Employment and Projected Growth By Industry SectorTrade, Transportation & Warehousing Education and Health Professional and Business Services Leisure and Hospitality Finance and Real Estate Other Services 0 250,000 500,000 750,000 1,000,000 2010 Employment Projected Growth
  30. 30. Industry Sectors with the Largest Projected Employment Growth 100,000 90,800 85,600Employment Change ‘10-‘20 75,000 69,200 50,500 50,000 25,000 0 Professional and Education and Health Trade, Transportation Leisure and Business Services & Warehousing Hospitality
  31. 31. Healthcare will Continue to Grow, But at a Slower Rate600500400300 2.6% 1.4%200 Per Year Per Year100 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 Actual Projected
  32. 32. Occupational Highlights• 7.7% Employment Growth, 2010- 2020• 320,300 Additional Employment• 132,940 Average Annual Job Openings• Roughly ¾ of these Openings are due to Replacement Demand.
  33. 33. Professional and Service Occupations will Dominate Job Growth 100,000 85,500Employment Change ‘10- ‘20 80,000 76,200 60,000 38,900 40,000 34,500 27,000 27,200 24,000 20,000 11,200 0 -4,400 -20,000 Production Professional Service Office / Admin. Install, Maint, Repair Trans. / Mat. Moving Mgmt., Bus., Fin. Construction Sales
  34. 34. Replacement Demand Will Create Opportunities In All Major Occupational Groups Service 30,170 Professional 27,900 Office / Admin. 19,500 Sales 17,290 Mgmt., Bus., Fin. 14,120Trans. / Mat. Moving 10,190 Construction 5,260Install, Maint, Repair 4,490 Production 3,940 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Growth Replacement
  35. 35. Home Health Aids Lead the Way in Greatest Projected Change in Employment By 2020 Home Health Aides 13,400 Retail Salespersons 13,300Employment Change ‘10- ‘20 Registered Nurses 9,000 Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 7,800 Receptionists and Information Clerks 7,400 Office Clerks, General 7,300 Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers 6,900 Cashiers 6,500 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000
  36. 36. Occupations Projected to Decline in Employment by 2020 0 Employment Change ‘10- ‘20 -500 -1,000 -1,500 -2,000 -2,500 -3,000 -3,500stal Service Mail Sorters, Processors, and Processing MachineExcept Special and VocationalTypists Clerks Secondary School Teachers, Operators Processors and Education Stock Clerks and Order Fillers Word File
  37. 37. Professional Occupations Consist of Many Different Groups Computer and Math Architecture and 139,400 Engineering 216,500 15% 56,100 Life, Physical, and 23% Social Sciences 6% Community and 37,200 Social Services65,400 4% 68,000 Legal 7% 7% Education, Training, and Library 38,400 311,700 Arts, Design, Entert 4% ainment, Sports, an 34% d Media Health Care Practitioner
  38. 38. Service Occupations Consist of Five Groups

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