Clergy Conference 2012 presentation by Bishop Philip Poole

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A presentation given by Bishop Philip Poole at the Anglican Diocese's of Toronto Clergy Conference 2012. The presentation focused on 10-year statistical trends in the Diocese.

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Clergy Conference 2012 presentation by Bishop Philip Poole

  1. 1. Clergy Conference 2012 Presentation by Bishop Philip PooleConference Session 1: Stepping Out of the Boat
  2. 2. Sustainable & Strategic Ministry Policy Have the resources (people, buildings, spiritual health, money) To carry out their mission. + Static R e Sustainable No clear mission to s Able to articulate and context. Mission o demonstrate a vital Inward looking, - + mission and ministrymaintenance focussed u appropriate to the r context c Unsustainable e Strategic - Lack resources to carry out their mission
  3. 3. The Current Reality
  4. 4.  8% of congregations  39% experienced a have experienced decline of less than 25% catastrophic decline in  17% experienced attendance in excess of numeric growth. 50%,  Total average Sunday 36% of congregations attendance declined experienced alarming 5,355 people from levels of decline in 28, 605 to 23,250. excess of 25%.
  5. 5. Diocese of Toronto, ASA and Easter Attendance 2000-2009 Sunday Easter Poly. (Sunday) Poly. (Easter) 58906 59254 58459 53628 52368 51053 50633 49639 47889 4670428605 28663 27272 26568 25674 25528 24754 23716 23316 23250 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
  6. 6. Year Full-Time Clergy 2001 209 2002 215 2003 207 Retirement Projections Based on Eligibility 2004 199 12% 2005 190 10% 9.7% 8% 2006 187 6% 5.1% 5.1% 4.6% 4.6% 2007 190 4% 4.6% 3.7% 3.7% 3.2% 2.8% 2.8% 2008 184 2% 0% 2009 186 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2010 179Numerical 30ChangePercentage 14% decreaseChange
  7. 7. Year # % Est. Ordinations Est. Total Full-timeAlready Retired 14 6.5% 2011 21 9.7% 11 169 2012 11 5.1% 6 164 2013 7 3.2% 2014 10 4.6% 2015 11 5.1% 2016 6 2.8% 2017 8 3.7% 2018 8 3.7% 2019 10 4.6% 2020 10 4.6% 2021 6 2.8% 2011-21 122 56.5%
  8. 8.  Decline has been  However the smaller masked by parishes congregations with reduced shifting size typologies staff are still trying to and down-sizing staff, maintain buildings that are we have seen the much too large for their disappearance of 30 needs. full-time and 20 part- time incumbencies in This will inevitably lead to the last 10 years. crises like we have seen at St. Stephen in the Fields, St. Clement Riverdale, St. Wilfrid and others where the congregation finally folds leaving the physical plant completely degraded and unusable.
  9. 9.  More than half of Canadians in the 15-to-29 age cohort either have no religion or never attend a service of worship, says Statistics Canada. Only 22 per cent say religion is very important to them, down from 34 per cent in 2002. What growth there has been in religious participation has been due to immigration. Unfortunately for us, the current source countries for immigration are not predominantly Christian let alone Anglican.
  10. 10.  Full time planter to Mandarin Population New Church Plant underway in Ajax Internal church plant to “Urban Trend-setters” downtown Intentional missional renewal/reboots at two historic downtown parishes Reclustering/hub parishes in Trent-Durham Fresh Expressions/Reach Grants spawning Missional Transformation Process (14 parishes, to 25 by 2013)
  11. 11. So, where’s the growth?
  12. 12.  Layering of age-cohort data over congregational statistics has pointed out some further areas of concern: o Identified 11 congregations that are terminal, continuous significant decline beyond likelihood of turnaround, unable to sustain ministry and plant o 15 congregations in peril – significant continuing decline in ASA makes sustainability unlikely, concerning age profile with significant number of congregation over 65
  13. 13. Where is the greatest decline? York Mills Scarborough -420 -660 Eglinton -582 Etobicoke -412
  14. 14. "Toto, Ive a feeling were not in Kansasanymore."

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