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CHINA
                                                            Internet Traffic Tracker
 Valuation Summary
 Stock code     Company Mkt price         Rating TP (US$)   Beyond the stories
                           (US$)
 SINA US            Sina       111.3         OP      95.0   Event
 BIDU US           Baidu       140.7         OP     145.0
 DANG US        Dangdang        19.4         OP      36.0    This report is our first issue of Internet Traffic Tracker to analyse Internet
 YOKU US           Youku        53.0         UP      32.0
                                                                traffic data and trends of leading Chinese websites in major segments such as
 Source: Macquarie Research, April 2011
                th
 Prices as of 12 April, 2011                                    portals, search, video, e-commerce, miniblog, and SNS. While investors and
                                                                analysts alike often are captivated by the exciting “stories” of Internet
                                                                companies, we believe the traffic data can help substantiate the fundamentals
                                                                beyond just the “stories”. Key observations include online video is a lot more
                                                                competitive than many believe and SNS is not growing much. Retain
                                                                Outperform on Sina, Baidu, Dangdang and Underperform on Youku.
                                                            Impact
                                                             Portal. It is an oligopoly segment and the data shows that Internet users
                                                                increasingly gravitate towards the top 5 portal sites for news. However,
                                                                NetEase has lost share in its portal (163.com). Given it is a mature segment,
                                                                relatively modest change in market share is expected. All leading portals have
                                                                other major businesses.
                                                             Search. It is a duopoly segment but appears to be moving to a near monopoly
                                                                segment. Baidu has been gaining share at the expense of Google China and
                                                                Soso (Tencent). With its partnership with Alibaba, Sogou (Sohu) has been
                                                                ramping up its user base.
                                                             Online video. It is a highly fragmented and competitive segment with 8 video
                                                                sites having over 30% penetration into the total Internet video user population
                                                                in China. In addition, the data does not capture the peer-to-peer video
                                                                software users, implying the segment is even more competitive than the data
                                                                here suggests. Youku remains the leader but Qiyi and Sohu are catching up
                                                                fast. Surprisingly, smaller sites such as Xunlei, 56 and K6 have been able to
                                                                hold on to their users and grow in line with the market, with total users +30%
                                                                YoY.
                                                                E-commerce. Number of ecommerce users is growing at 50+% YoY, faster
                                                                than any other segment except miniblog. Group buy players such as Lashou
                                                                are rapidly ramping up user base. Among conventional B2C players, market
                                                                share and visitor patterns have seen little change. Dangdang is holding on to
                                                                its penetration rate in monthly unique visitors despite competitive concerns.
                                                             Miniblog. Hottest segment in Internet in China with total miniblog users up
                                                                10x from a year ago. Sina’s Weibo still dominant but Tencent and Sohu
                                                                appear to be catching up.
                                                             Social Network Services. Despite a lot of attention placed on SNS by
                                                                investors and analysts, the space is not growing much in China. #1 SNS site
                                                                Renren has been maintaining its user base while #2 Kaixin is seeing a YoY
                                                                decline in its monthly unique visitor counts.
 Jiong Shao, CFA, CMT
 +852 3922 3566         jiong.shao@macquarie.com            Outlook
 Steve Zhang, CFA
 +852 3922 3578       steve.zhang@macquarie.com              We continue to believe that Chinese Internet has entered into a new phase
 Jose Pun
 +852 3922 3593            jose.pun@macquarie.com               with many new business models having emerged. With quite a few exciting
                                                                “stories”, it is important for analysts and investors to figure out what is real and
 13 April 2011                                                  what is talk. Therefore, we believe analysis of data traffic is a critical element
 Macquarie Capital Securities Limited                           of Internet research.

Please refer to the important disclosures and analyst certification on inside back cover of this document, or on our
website www.macquarie.com.au/disclosures.
Macquarie Research                                                                                                                                                  Internet Traffic Tracker




                  Analysis
                  Portals (Oligopoly) – Internet users increasingly rely on top portal sites; pecking order
                  unlikely to change anytime soon
                  The total number of monthly unique visitors increased 18% YoY and reached 373.6 mn in Feb 2011,
                  suggesting over 80% of Chinese Internet users visited portal sites in that month. Given portal is a
                  mature segment of the Chinese Internet industry, significant market share shift and meaningful
                  change in competitive positioning among players should not be expected. However, we have
                  observed that NetEase’s portal site (163.com) has lost some share in terms of % of portal users who
                  visited 163.com over the last few months according to the data below. In addition, the data suggests
                  that outside of the top 5 portal sites (qq.com, sina.com.cn, 163.com, sohu.com, ifeng.com) the rest of
                  the portals appear to be losing Internet users’ interest. Across the board, a smaller percentage of
                  total portal visitors are using tier 2 portal sites (yahoo.com.cn, msn.com.cn, china.com, yahoo.com,
                  tom.com, 21cn.com, msn.com) today than a year ago. Generally speaking, Chinese Internet users
                  appear to increasingly gravitate towards top portal sites for news. We expect this trend to continue.


Fig 1 Web portal monthly unique visitors (‘m)
Web portal monthly unique visitors('m)     2010-01    2010-02   2010-03   2010-04   2010-05    2010-06     2010-07       2010-08       2010-09    2010-10   2010-11    2010-12    2011-01   2011-02
Total                                        306.8      315.6     372.1     365.7      350.7      346.7      359.0         359.8         357.9      348.3     355.8      358.8      367.4     373.6
qq.com                                       283.1      287.1     347.1     344.4      324.8      325.3      339.2         339.3         336.5      328.7     336.1      335.4      344.1     350.0
sina.com.cn                                  234.7      218.5     271.0     279.2      266.2      269.2      275.4         276.6         267.7      272.8     275.6      279.9      281.3     289.7
163.com                                      210.3      178.2     235.3     244.5      229.7      227.9      231.0         236.0         228.7      228.2     233.4      238.9      234.8     230.0
sohu.com                                     188.9      167.3     221.2     226.9      214.7      217.6      212.9         214.1         203.1      211.4     212.9      219.2      222.9     229.2
ifeng.com                                     83.7       66.3      91.4      99.9       90.2       89.8          90.7          96.2       99.9      105.0     104.9      106.0      104.9     105.9
yahoo.com.cn                                  92.4       71.7     100.6     121.5      108.5      107.6      107.7         101.2          95.2       94.8      95.5      101.5       99.8      95.2
msn.com.cn                                    76.4       65.7      92.4      98.3       85.9       84.2          81.4          81.4       74.0       72.1      88.7       71.6       66.6      63.3
china.com                                     31.4       23.8      32.1      33.0       35.3       33.7          31.9          36.1       37.7       39.3      33.1       33.0       31.5      32.3
yahoo.com                                     30.4       22.3      31.7      33.7       32.2       33.0          31.1          31.8       29.9       30.3      30.0       29.2       26.9      28.5
tom.com                                       43.1       31.5      40.6      42.7       39.2       45.5          39.9          37.8       35.6       34.1      29.4       25.1       25.6      24.4
21cn.com                                      24.3       19.5      26.3      29.4       33.0       34.3          32.7          26.5       22.0       23.9      23.9       22.8       24.9      21.8
msn.com                                       18.9       14.8      18.7      19.9       21.9       22.7          20.4          23.9       17.4       17.8      34.9       20.1       19.7      18.4

Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 2011




Fig 2         Web portal penetration rate (‘m)
Web portal penetration rate      2010-01    2010-02    2010-03    2010-04    2010-05    2010-06     2010-07       2010-08        2010-09      2010-10    2010-11      2010-12    2011-01    2011-02
qq.com                             92.3%     91.0%       93.3%      94.2%     92.6%       93.8%       94.5%         94.3%             94.0%      94.4%      94.5%      93.5%      93.7%      93.7%
sina.com.cn                        76.5%     69.2%       72.8%      76.4%     75.9%       77.6%       76.7%         76.9%             74.8%      78.3%      77.5%      78.0%      76.6%      77.5%
163.com                            68.5%     56.5%       63.2%      66.9%     65.5%       65.7%       64.3%         65.6%             63.9%      65.5%      65.6%      66.6%      63.9%      61.6%
sohu.com                           61.6%     53.0%       59.5%      62.0%     61.2%       62.8%       59.3%         59.5%             56.8%      60.7%      59.8%      61.1%      60.7%      61.4%
ifeng.com                          27.3%     21.0%       24.6%      27.3%     25.7%       25.9%       25.3%         26.7%             27.9%      30.1%      29.5%      29.5%      28.6%      28.3%
yahoo.com.cn                       30.1%     22.7%       27.0%      33.2%     30.9%       31.0%       30.0%         28.1%             26.6%      27.2%      26.9%      28.3%      27.2%      25.5%
msn.com.cn                         24.9%     20.8%       24.8%      26.9%     24.5%       24.3%       22.7%         22.6%             20.7%      20.7%      24.9%      20.0%      18.1%      16.9%
china.com                          10.2%       7.5%       8.6%       9.0%     10.1%        9.7%           8.9%      10.0%             10.5%      11.3%      9.3%        9.2%       8.6%       8.6%
yahoo.com                           9.9%       7.1%       8.5%       9.2%       9.2%       9.5%           8.7%          8.8%          8.3%       8.7%       8.4%        8.1%       7.3%       7.6%
tom.com                            14.1%     10.0%       10.9%      11.7%     11.2%       13.1%       11.1%         10.5%             9.9%       9.8%       8.3%        7.0%       7.0%       6.5%
21cn.com                            7.9%       6.2%       7.1%       8.0%       9.4%       9.9%           9.1%          7.4%          6.1%       6.9%       6.7%        6.3%       6.8%       5.8%
msn.com                             6.2%       4.7%       5.0%       5.5%       6.3%       6.5%           5.7%          6.7%          4.9%       5.1%       9.8%        5.6%       5.4%       4.9%

Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 2011




13 April 2011                                                                                                                                                                                    2
Macquarie Research                                                                                                                                                                  Internet Traffic Tracker




                 Search (duopoly but moving to monopoly) – Baidu has strengthened its market leadership;
                 Google & Soso (Tencent) losing ground
                 In Feb 2011, 356.5mn Internet users searched the web, up 21% YoY. While investors and analysts
                 often look at search query market share to analyse market positioning of different search engines, we
                 are using monthly unique visitors here but have reached a similar conclusion – Baidu has been
                 strengthening its market leadership at the expense of almost every other search engine. Specifically,
                 95% of search users today in China use Baidu compared to 90% a year ago. On the other hand, the
                 percentage of search users in China who have been using Google and Soso has been generally
                 declining over the last year. In Feb 2011, roughly 43% and 27% of search users visited Google and
                 Soso, respectively, both figures down noticeably from a year ago. Sogou (Sohu), however, has been
                 gradually increasing its market penetration according to the data below. In Feb 2011, 18% of Internet
                 search users used Sogou compared to the low teens a year ago.


Fig 3     Web search monthly unique visitors (‘m)
Web search monthly unique visitors('m)          2010-01     2010-02   2010-03   2010-04    2010-05      2010-06       2010-07        2010-08      2010-09       2010-10     2010-11    2010-12    2011-01   2011-02
Total                                             291.7       294.8     350.4      348.9      331.2          332.5      342.5          342.7        341.4         333.8       340.6      344.8      349.8     356.5
Baidu                                             267.0       267.4     328.4      332.1      308.3          311.3      320.0          321.0        319.0         313.9       320.6      325.9      332.2     337.7
Google China                                      168.2       140.7     187.8      186.9      168.5          171.5      177.5          174.7        172.5         168.1       160.8      157.6      154.1     154.5
Soso                                               99.9        86.8     101.0      106.4       99.6          108.0      111.6          105.7        112.5         110.9       100.8      112.7      100.9      97.3
Sogou                                              39.9        29.8      42.6       50.0       43.3           43.3          62.5        64.7         59.3          56.6        57.0       58.2       62.4      63.7
Google                                             39.6        28.8      46.9       50.0       42.8           41.7          43.5        45.1         41.2          44.3        41.1       39.8       36.2      38.9
Bing                                               21.5        15.2      24.2       24.5       21.7           22.3          21.4        21.0         20.7          20.8        23.7       21.2       21.6      20.0
Youdao                                              9.4         5.8       8.4       11.6       15.1           15.4          15.6        17.6         18.7          23.1        22.6       22.9       15.4      14.7
Gougou                                             22.4        15.6      17.8       19.3       21.4           19.2          18.9        14.8         13.3          13.9        12.8       10.2       10.1       9.1
Yahoo China                                         4.7         3.0       4.4        5.1        5.6            5.4           4.5           5.4           3.8        4.0         3.8        3.6        2.9       2.9

Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 2011




Fig 4     Web search penetration rate (by monthly unique visitors)
Web search penetration rate        2010-01        2010-02     2010-03    2010-04    2010-05     2010-06        2010-07        2010-08       2010-09        2010-10        2010-11     2010-12    2011-01    2011-02
Baidu                               91.5%          90.7%        93.7%     95.2%       93.1%       93.6%          93.4%             93.7%         93.4%         94.0%       94.1%       94.5%      95.0%      94.7%
Google China                        57.7%          47.7%        53.6%     53.6%       50.9%       51.6%          51.8%             51.0%         50.5%         50.4%       47.2%       45.7%      44.1%      43.3%
Soso                                34.3%          29.4%        28.8%     30.5%       30.1%       32.5%          32.6%             30.8%         33.0%         33.2%       29.6%       32.7%      28.9%      27.3%
Sogou                               13.7%          10.1%        12.1%     14.3%       13.1%       13.0%          18.2%             18.9%         17.4%         17.0%       16.7%       16.9%      17.8%      17.9%
Google                              13.6%           9.8%        13.4%     14.3%       12.9%       12.6%          12.7%             13.2%         12.1%         13.3%       12.1%       11.5%      10.3%      10.9%
Bing                                     7.4%       5.2%         6.9%       7.0%       6.5%           6.7%           6.2%          6.1%          6.1%          6.2%         7.0%        6.2%       6.2%       5.6%
Youdao                                   3.2%       2.0%         2.4%       3.3%       4.6%           4.6%           4.5%          5.1%          5.5%          6.9%         6.6%        6.6%       4.4%       4.1%
Gougou                                   7.7%       5.3%         5.1%       5.5%       6.5%           5.8%           5.5%          4.3%          3.9%          4.2%         3.7%        3.0%       2.9%       2.6%
Yahoo China                              1.6%       1.0%         1.3%       1.5%       1.7%           1.6%           1.3%          1.6%          1.1%          1.2%         1.1%        1.1%       0.8%       0.8%

Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 2011


                 Video (highly fragmented and competitive) – 8 video sites that have 30% or higher penetration
                 rate among video viewers; Qiyi the fastest grower
                 In Feb 2011, there were 343mn Internet video users in China, up 30% YoY, and eight video sites
                 each had at least 30% penetration among Internet video users, suggesting a highly fragmented
                 marketplace. In other words, for each of these 8 sites, at least 30% of the Chinese Internet video
                 users visited the site in the month of Feb. Over the last 12 months, Youku has gained modestly in
                 penetration to now about 65% while #2 player Tudou has largely maintained its penetration of around
                 55%. The biggest share gainers are Qiyi and Sohu. Since its inception less than a year ago, Qiyi now
                 has about 30% penetration. With significant investments in video, Sohu has been gradually
                 improving its penetration from mid 20s a year ago to high 30s today. Somewhat surprisingly, smaller
                 players such as Ku6, Xunlei, and 56 have largely maintained their penetration rate. While many
                 industry observers have been predicting upcoming industry consolidation, the reality appears, for the
                 time being, that the Chinese Internet video industry today remains highly fragmented and
                 competitive. We also highlight that the data below excludes peer-to-peer software sub-segment of
                 the Internet video industry, making the online video market even more competitive.




13 April 2011                                                                                                                                                                                                    3
Macquarie Research                                                                                                                                                                                                    Internet Traffic Tracker




Fig 5 Online video website monthly unique visitors (‘m)
Online video website monthly unique visitors ('m)     2010-01        2010-02          2010-03         2010-04        2010-05         2010-06         2010-07       2010-08       2010-09        2010-10        2010-11     2010-12    2011-01   2011-02
Total                                                   270.5          264.3            309.4           315.8             305.5           307.9          318.9         324.5          317.1       313.9         322.9       329.3      335.6     343.4
Youku                                                   171.1          153.5            182.1           193.7             194.8           199.2          207.3         213.7          203.0       206.5         203.6       209.4      215.9     225.6
Tudou                                                   152.0          134.4            152.9           165.9             167.7           170.2          177.0         183.6          176.1       177.1         175.6       182.4      186.7     188.9
Sohu                                                     61.8              65.7             81.7            81.3           84.5            84.1           91.6          95.5           84.9           89.3       95.7       107.9      119.6     128.0
Qiyi                                                           -               -               -             2.1            2.6             2.2           28.1          43.4           44.6           50.4       51.6        56.3       76.5     102.4
Ku6                                                      98.2              79.1             90.8        101.1             110.8           124.0          125.0         123.3          110.5       113.0         120.1       120.3      122.0     112.4
Sina                                                    107.0              88.5         104.0           110.6             114.0           107.6          107.4         117.2          114.4       119.2         122.4       115.5      117.7     124.0
Xunlei                                                  112.3              94.3         108.7           117.1             122.0           119.9          120.3         118.0          111.4       115.1         105.5       109.5      129.2     120.5
56                                                       95.7              81.4             95.3        103.7             113.1           110.0          108.1         112.7          103.7       110.7         103.6       110.5      107.0     106.7
PPTV                                                     30.6              34.8             39.9            32.9           30.6            45.6           48.5          49.2           38.5           41.8       51.6        54.6       56.3      46.5
CNTV                                                     31.5              35.7             40.1            45.1           41.7            72.6           58.3          52.9           52.4           58.0       65.9        59.0       67.1      73.7
PPS                                                      45.3              40.9             40.8            48.9           48.2            50.4           55.9          54.7           48.4           52.6       55.0        54.4       60.5      56.8
Six Rooms                                                36.2              29.7             30.6            28.6           29.4            32.7           34.6          36.2           27.8           26.3       27.9        26.0       27.3      33.0
Joy.cn                                                   41.2              35.1             43.3            43.0           47.7            51.4           50.8          51.4           49.4           48.7       35.9        34.7       40.0      41.9
Letv                                                     15.2              19.6             19.2            19.6           18.5            17.4           20.0          30.9           26.3           25.1       25.2        28.4       35.9      42.8

Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 2011




Fig 6 Online video website penetration rate (by monthly unique visitors)
Online video website penetration rate      2010-01       2010-02            2010-03         2010-04          2010-05         2010-06         2010-07         2010-08       2010-09            2010-10        2010-11     2010-12     2011-01    2011-02
Youku                                        63.3%           58.1%           58.9%            61.3%            63.8%          64.7%               65.0%          65.8%         64.0%           65.8%          63.0%       63.6%       64.3%      65.7%
Tudou                                        56.2%           50.9%           49.4%            52.5%            54.9%          55.3%               55.5%          56.6%         55.5%           56.4%          54.4%       55.4%       55.6%      55.0%
Sohu                                         22.8%           24.8%           26.4%            25.8%            27.7%          27.3%               28.7%          29.4%         26.8%           28.4%          29.6%       32.8%       35.6%      37.3%
Qiyi                                                                                           0.7%                0.9%           0.7%             8.8%          13.4%         14.1%           16.1%          16.0%       17.1%       22.8%      29.8%
Ku6                                          36.3%           29.9%           29.3%            32.0%            36.3%          40.3%               39.2%          38.0%         34.9%           36.0%          37.2%       36.5%       36.4%      32.7%
Sina                                         39.5%           33.5%           33.6%            35.0%            37.3%          35.0%               33.7%          36.1%         36.1%           38.0%          37.9%       35.1%       35.1%      36.1%
Xunlei                                       41.5%           35.7%           35.1%            37.1%            39.9%          38.9%               37.7%          36.4%         35.1%           36.7%          32.7%       33.2%       38.5%      35.1%
56                                           35.4%           30.8%           30.8%            32.8%            37.0%          35.7%               33.9%          34.7%         32.7%           35.3%          32.1%       33.6%       31.9%      31.1%
PPTV                                         11.3%           13.2%           12.9%            10.4%            10.0%          14.8%               15.2%          15.1%         12.1%           13.3%          16.0%       16.6%       16.8%      13.5%
CNTV                                         11.6%           13.5%           12.9%            14.3%            13.7%          23.6%               18.3%          16.3%         16.5%           18.5%          20.4%       17.9%       20.0%      21.5%
PPS                                          16.7%           15.5%           13.2%            15.5%            15.8%          16.4%               17.5%          16.9%         15.3%           16.8%          17.0%       16.5%       18.0%      16.5%
Six Rooms                                    13.4%           11.2%            9.9%             9.0%                9.6%       10.6%               10.8%          11.2%          8.8%            8.4%           8.6%         7.9%       8.1%       9.6%
Joy.cn                                       15.2%           13.3%           14.0%            13.6%            15.6%          16.7%               15.9%          15.8%         15.6%           15.5%          11.1%       10.5%       11.9%      12.2%
Letv                                          5.6%           7.4%             6.2%             6.2%                6.1%           5.7%             6.3%           9.5%          8.3%            8.0%           7.8%         8.6%      10.7%      12.5%

Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 2011


                      E-commerce (fast growing; steady competitive landscape) – 51% YoY growth in unique
                      visitors; group buying is the new trend
                      In Feb 2011, there were a total of 290.8mn online shoppers, up from 192.7mn a year earlier, +51%
                      YoY. We highlight that the growth rate in unique visitors for ecommerce is higher than that for video,
                      which may be counter-intuitive for some given all the attention placed on video by investors.
                      Generally speaking, most of the leading ecommerce sites, such as Taobao and Dangdang, have
                      largely maintained their penetration rates among online shoppers. Another general observation is
                      that group buying sites have been embraced by online shoppers with top group buy sites such as
                      Lashou and Meituan having reached double-digit penetration among internet shoppers in less than a
                      year of being in operation. For Dangdang, despite intensifying competition in ecommerce area, the
                      company has largely maintained its double-digit penetration rate.

Fig 7           E-commerce website monthly unique visitors (‘m)
E-commerce monthly unique visitors('m)         2010-01        2010-02        2010-03          2010-04        2010-05        2010-06         2010-07       2010-08        2010-09         2010-10         2010-11         2010-12     2011-01    2011-02
Total                                               216.7          192.7           249.1           260.7       249.2          250.4           260.9         272.2          271.7              270.1           276.2        290.4       289.2      290.8
Taobao (C2C)                                        151.7          127.6           174.9           188.9       184.2          182.9           190.3         200.0          202.1              199.6           211.8        220.1       217.9      205.1
Taobao Mall (B2C)                                        -              -               -               -           -              -               -             -              -                  -           92.2        107.8       103.1       87.9
Taobao (Group buy)                                       -              -               -               -              -              -           22.6       32.3              26.0            31.3            52.3         76.2        75.6       67.0
Paipai (C2C)                                         51.5           36.2            48.1            52.0           54.3           55.6            58.3       59.6              59.2            60.7            60.4         72.1        63.6       62.7
Alibaba China (B2B)                                  51.9           34.7            55.7            56.0           54.9           67.8            67.4       75.3              76.1            82.0            73.4         70.6        47.3       49.1
Laishou (Group buy)                                   0.0            0.0             0.0             0.0            0.0            1.3             9.1       13.8              20.4            29.0            33.7         43.9        45.1       48.6
360Buy (B2C)                                         20.7           17.0            25.9            28.1           26.6           33.1            35.2       38.2              37.1            36.1            34.6         41.9        39.4       35.6
Meituan (Group buy)                                      -              -               -               -              -           0.9             5.6           9.9           12.3            13.0            15.0         23.6        30.4       34.1
Dangdang (B2C)                                       26.2           16.7            27.1            30.1           28.1           29.5            30.1       33.7              32.0            33.2            33.0         36.6        30.6       30.4
Amazon China (B2C)                                   25.3           18.1            27.9            29.3           27.1           24.9            27.0       26.7              28.9            29.2            26.4         30.2        29.5       29.3
Tencent (Group buy)                                      -              -               -               -              -              -            2.8           5.0            8.0            12.3            12.3         19.3        25.1       25.9
Alibaba (B2B)                                        13.1            9.0            20.7            21.1           24.6           31.2            31.6       32.4              27.5            32.0            31.1         37.7        25.9       23.8

Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 2011


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Fig 8           E-commerce website penetration rate (by monthly unique visitors)
E-commerce penetration rate     2010-01   2010-02   2010-03    2010-04       2010-05   2010-06       2010-07   2010-08   2010-09   2010-10   2010-11   2010-12   2011-01   2011-02
Taobao (C2C)                      70.0%    66.2%     70.2%      72.5%         73.9%         73.1%     72.9%     73.5%     74.4%     73.9%     76.7%     75.8%      75.3%     70.5%
Taobao Mall (B2C)                                                                                                                             33.4%     37.1%      35.7%     30.2%
Taobao (Group buy)                                                                                     8.6%     11.9%      9.6%     11.6%     18.9%     26.2%      26.1%     23.0%
Paipai (C2C)                      23.8%    18.8%     19.3%      20.0%         21.8%         22.2%     22.3%     21.9%     21.8%     22.5%     21.9%     24.8%      22.0%     21.6%
Alibaba China (B2B)               24.0%    18.0%     22.4%      21.5%         22.0%         27.1%     25.8%     27.7%     28.0%     30.3%     26.6%     24.3%      16.3%     16.9%
Laishou (Group buy)                                                                          0.5%      3.5%      5.1%      7.5%     10.7%     12.2%     15.1%      15.6%     16.7%
360Buy (B2C)                       9.6%     8.8%     10.4%      10.8%         10.7%         13.2%     13.5%     14.0%     13.7%     13.4%     12.5%     14.4%      13.6%     12.2%
Meituan (Group buy)                                                                          0.3%      2.1%      3.7%      4.5%      4.8%      5.4%      8.1%      10.5%     11.7%
Dangdang (B2C)                    12.1%     8.7%     10.9%      11.5%         11.3%         11.8%     11.5%     12.4%     11.8%     12.3%     11.9%     12.6%      10.6%     10.4%
Amazon China (B2C)                11.7%     9.4%     11.2%      11.2%         10.9%         10.0%     10.4%      9.8%     10.6%     10.8%      9.6%     10.4%      10.2%     10.1%
Tencent (Group buy)                                                                                    1.1%      1.9%      3.0%      4.6%      4.5%      6.7%      8.7%       8.9%
Alibaba (B2B)                      6.0%     4.6%      8.3%       8.1%          9.9%         12.5%     12.1%     11.9%     10.1%     11.8%     11.3%     13.0%      8.9%       8.2%

Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 2011


                    Miniblog (hottest segment; probably to become more competitive) – battle continues on; SINA
                    remains dominant
                    In Feb, there were a total of 206mn miniblog monthly unique visitors in China, according to
                    iResearch. We decided to use daily unique visitor stats for the miniblog segment as opposed to
                    monthly unique visitor stats because of the rapidly changing market environment and significant
                    difference in activeness of miniblog users on different sites. For example, both Sina and Tencent had
                    over 100mn unique visitors in Feb, but Sina had 14.2mn daily unique visitors that month while
                    Tencent had 8.7mn, suggesting that Sina’s miniblog users log on more often (on daily basis) than
                    Tencent miniblog users. In terms of the penetration rate, Sina has broadly maintained its 50%
                    penetration rate (ie half of China’s average daily miniblog users logged onto Sina’s Weibo) while
                    Tencent and Sohu appear to be catching up to now hold about 30% and 15% penetration rate,
                    respectively, while Baidu’s and Qihoo’s miniblog user base penetration has declined over the past
                    year. Sina has the first mover advantage in the miniblog space and all top three players here are
                    making significant investments in this hotly contested segment.


Fig 9 Miniblog daily unique visitors (‘000)
Miniblog daily unique visitors ('000)     2010-03    2010-04     2010-05         2010-06            2010-07    2010-08   2010-09   2010-10   2010-11   2010-12   2011-01   2011-02
Total                                      3,841       5,415       6,829           9,566             9,770     11,050    12,398    13,201    16,686    19,535    24,092    28,424
Sina weibo                                 1,760       2,507       3,203           4,462             5,130      6,288     6,642     7,210     9,437    10,640    12,292    14,229
Tencent miniblog                               67        330         774           1,161             1,132      1,660     2,052     2,547     3,094     4,273     6,371     8,686
Sohu miniblog                                120         332         537               994             708        443       860       820     1,718     2,273     4,021     4,125
Baidu miniblog                               872       1,166       1,166           1,864             1,876      1,909     1,668     1,602     1,537     1,699     1,616     2,364
Qihoo miniblog                               966         980       1,047           1,065             1,013      1,084     1,343     1,248     1,367     1,311     1,175     1,235
Netease miniblog                               76        178         261               473             328        225       280       312       443       585       772     1,132
iFeng miniblog                                 -          -              -              -               -           -        20        93       104       114       181       196
Digu miniblog                                103          78             94            115              73         68        47        51        56        69        82       107
Twitter                                        -          -              -              -               -           -         -         -        -         -         -         86
Tongxue miniblog                             111         101         109                88              73         79       239       102        56        47        43        51
Zuosa miniblog                                 47         38             33             26              34         22        25        22        24        22        31        36
Follow5 miniblog                               -          38             18             32              24         18        21        21        32        20        20        33
9911 miniblog                                  49         44             34             36              27         36        33        34        18        20        32        19
Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 2011




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Fig 10         Miniblog penetration rate (by daily unique visitors)
Miniblog penetration rate                  2010-03        2010-04         2010-05           2010-06         2010-07       2010-08          2010-09         2010-10             2010-11          2010-12       2011-01     2011-02
Sina weibo                                   45.8%             46.3%           46.9%          46.6%           52.5%            56.9%           53.6%            54.6%              56.6%         54.5%         51.0%       50.1%
Tencent miniblog                                 1.7%           6.1%           11.3%          12.1%           11.6%            15.0%           16.6%            19.3%              18.5%         21.9%         26.4%       30.6%
Sohu miniblog                                    3.1%           6.1%           7.9%           10.4%               7.2%          4.0%            6.9%                 6.2%          10.3%         11.6%         16.7%       14.5%
Baidu miniblog                               22.7%             21.5%           17.1%          19.5%           19.2%            17.3%           13.5%            12.1%              9.2%           8.7%          6.7%        8.3%
Qihoo miniblog                               25.1%             18.1%           15.3%          11.1%           10.4%             9.8%           10.8%                 9.5%          8.2%           6.7%          4.9%        4.3%
Netease miniblog                                 2.0%           3.3%           3.8%            4.9%               3.4%          2.0%            2.3%                 2.4%          2.7%           3.0%          3.2%        4.0%
iFeng miniblog                                                                                                                                  0.2%                 0.7%          0.6%           0.6%          0.8%        0.7%
Digu miniblog                                    2.7%           1.4%           1.4%            1.2%               0.7%          0.6%            0.4%                 0.4%          0.3%           0.4%          0.3%        0.4%
Twitter                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0.3%
Tongxue miniblog                                 2.9%           1.9%           1.6%            0.9%               0.7%          0.7%            1.9%                 0.8%          0.3%           0.2%          0.2%        0.2%
Zuosa miniblog                                   1.2%           0.7%           0.5%            0.3%               0.3%          0.2%            0.2%                 0.2%          0.1%           0.1%          0.1%        0.1%
Follow5 miniblog                                                0.7%           0.3%            0.3%               0.2%          0.2%            0.2%                 0.2%          0.2%           0.1%          0.1%        0.1%
9911 miniblog                                    1.3%           0.8%           0.5%            0.4%               0.3%          0.3%            0.3%                 0.3%          0.1%           0.1%          0.1%        0.1%
Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 2011


                   Social Networking (highly concentrated segment but not really growing) – It Is a two horse
                   race, but neither horse is running very fast
                   Despite all the fanfare, growth of user base of leading Chinese social networking sites has not been
                   overly impressive, with total user growth of 18% YoY in Feb 2011, in line with total Chinese Internet
                   user growth. Contrary to the experience in the West (ie Facebook), social networks have not been
                   embraced by Chinese Internet users as widely. Broadly speaking, leading SNS site Renren’s monthly
                   unique visitors have been flattish over the last 12 month while #2 player Kaixin has been seeing a
                   decline in its monthly visitor count. There are many theories behind why Facebook-like social
                   networks don’t seem to get the same traction in China. For the time being, we have decided to
                   discount the monthly unique visitor stats for Tencent’s social networking offering as we believe
                   iResearch or Tencent may have reclassified some of the Tencent traffic into Pengyou traffic as our
                   on-the-ground checks suggested that not many people have used Tencent social networking sites.


Fig 11         Social Network Services website monthly unique visitors (‘m)
SNS monthly unique visitors ('m)         2010-01      2010-02        2010-03        2010-04    2010-05       2010-06      2010-07        2010-08        2010-09        2010-10        2010-11      2010-12      2011-01    2011-02
Total                                     209.3         185.5         226.8          234.1         214.3         212.1     216.8          226.1           218.3          219.1         219.8         221.8       229.8      217.9
Tencent Pengyou                              -             -             -              -             -             -            -              -               -              -            -         37.2       134.3      135.2
Renren                                     84.7          71.2          95.1           99.1          92.4          92.5         94.5        95.0            89.3             97.6        95.1          97.7        99.7       92.8
Kaixin                                     49.2          44.1          64.4           65.1          47.3          45.2         47.7        46.8            42.2             41.2        39.5          35.7        38.3       39.0
51.com                                     29.5          21.4          26.4           27.2          26.3          22.9         25.7        27.1            24.9             25.7        24.6          23.9        28.2       31.0
MySpace.cn                                 12.7           7.2          12.7           14.5          14.5          17.5         15.0        16.4            14.1             15.0        11.3           6.3         8.5        9.0
Jiaxingquan                                  -             -             -              -             -             -            -              -               -              -            -             -        4.0        7.9
China mobile                                 -             -             -              -             -             -            -             9.1         10.5             10.1           9.4         9.8         6.6        6.3
Sohu                                       20.9          19.2          17.2           12.8          11.3           7.2          6.6        10.6                7.0           4.4           4.1         4.2         4.2        4.5
Facebook                                    3.9           3.2           3.3            4.3           4.0           3.7          3.5            4.0             3.3           3.6           3.0         3.9         4.5        4.2
Niwota.com                                  3.3           2.0           2.1            1.7           2.3           2.6          3.3            3.7             3.1           2.5           2.1         1.6         1.7        1.8
iPart.cn                                    2.2           2.1           3.0            2.9           2.7           2.7          3.0            2.9             3.2           2.8           2.2         1.9         3.6        0.8
MySpace                                     1.4           0.9           1.2            1.2           1.3           1.2          1.2            1.1             1.2           1.0           0.7         0.9         0.9        0.8

Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 2011




Fig 12         Social Network Services website penetration rate (monthly unique visitors)
SNS penetration rate         2010-01      2010-02       2010-03        2010-04         2010-05       2010-06        2010-07          2010-08         2010-09         2010-10        2010-11       2010-12      2011-01     2011-02
Tencent Pengyou                                                                                                                                                                                      17%          58%         62%
Renren                             40%       38%               42%           42%             43%           44%           44%            42%             41%             45%            43%           44%          43%         43%
Kaixin                             24%       24%               28%           28%             22%           21%           22%            21%             19%             19%            18%           16%          17%         18%
51.com                             14%       12%               12%           12%             12%           11%           12%            12%             11%             12%            11%           11%          12%         14%
MySpace.cn                         6%            4%             6%             6%             7%           8%            7%              7%              6%              7%             5%            3%           4%          4%
Jiaxingquan                                                                                                                                                                                                        2%          4%
China mobile                                                                                                                             4%              5%              5%             4%            4%           3%          3%
Sohu                               10%       10%                8%             5%             5%           3%            3%              5%              3%              2%             2%            2%           2%          2%
Facebook                           2%            2%             1%             2%             2%           2%            2%              2%              2%              2%             1%            2%           2%          2%
Niwota.com                         2%            1%             1%             1%             1%           1%            2%              2%              1%              1%             1%            1%           1%          1%
iPart.cn                           1%            1%             1%             1%             1%           1%            1%              1%              1%              1%             1%            1%           2%          0%
MySpace                            1%            1%             1%             1%             1%           1%            1%              0%              1%              0%             0%            0%           0%          0%

Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 2011


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Important disclosures:
 Recommendation definitions                                  Volatility index definition*                            Financial definitions
 Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand                           This is calculated from the volatility of historical    All "Adjusted" data items have had the following
 Outperform – return >3% in excess of benchmark return       price movements.                                        adjustments made:
 Neutral – return within 3% of benchmark return                                                                      Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for
 Underperform – return >3% below benchmark return            Very high–highest risk – Stock should be                catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging,
                                                             expected to move up or down 60–100% in a year           IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense
 Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal         – investors should be aware this stock is highly        Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property
 GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend            speculative.                                            revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends &
 yield                                                                                                               minority interests
 Macquarie – Asia/Europe                                     High – stock should be expected to move up or
 Outperform – expected return >+10%                          down at least 40–60% in a year – investors should       EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa*
 Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10%                 be aware this stock could be speculative.               ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets
 Underperform – expected return <-10%                                                                                ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average
                                                             Medium – stock should be expected to move up            total assets
 Macquarie First South - South Africa                        or down at least 30–40% in a year.                      ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds
 Outperform – expected return >+10%                                                                                  Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation
 Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10%                 Low–medium – stock should be expected to                *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average
 Underperform – expected return <-10%                        move up or down at least 25–30% in a year.              number of shares
 Macquarie - Canada
 Outperform – return >5% in excess of benchmark return       Low – stock should be expected to move up or            All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks
 Neutral – return within 5% of benchmark return              down at least 15–25% in a year.                         are modelled under IFRS (International Financial
 Underperform – return >5% below benchmark return            * Applicable to Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only        Reporting Standards).
 Macquarie - USA                                             Recommendations – 12 months
 Outperform (Buy) – return >5% in excess of Russell          Note: Quant recommendations may differ from
 3000 index return                                           Fundamental Analyst recommendations
 Neutral (Hold) – return within 5% of Russell 3000 index
 return
 Underperform (Sell)– return >5% below Russell 3000
 index return


 Recommendation proportions – For quarter ending 31 March 2011
                      AU/NZ         Asia      RSA            USA       CA           EUR
 Outperform           45.65%      65.72%     59.70%        43.02%    68.91%       51.16% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 14.36% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
 Neutral              39.49%      19.00%     29.85%        53.09%    26.43%       35.73% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 17.55% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
 Underperform         14.86%      15.28%     10.45%        3.89%     4.66%        13.11% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 0.00% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)


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Report can be accessed at: http://www.thai-iod.com/en/publications.asp?type=4. South Korea: In South Korea, unless otherwise stated, research is
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Auckland                Bangkok                Calgary                 Denver                  Frankfurt              Geneva                   Hong Kong
Tel: (649) 377 6433     Tel: (662) 694 7999    Tel: (1 403) 218 6650   Tel: (303) 952 2800     Tel: (069) 509 578 000 Tel: (41) 22 818 7777    Tel: (852) 2823 3588
Jakarta                 Johannesburg           Kuala Lumpur            London                 Manila                   Melbourne               Montreal
Tel: (62 21) 515 1818   Tel: (2711) 583 2000   Tel: (60 3) 2059 8833   Tel: (44 20) 3037 4400 Tel: (63 2) 857 0888     Tel: (613) 9635 8139    Tel: (1 514) 925 2850
Mumbai                 Munich                New York                  Paris                   Perth                   Seoul                   Shanghai
Tel: (91 22) 6653 3000 Tel: (089) 2444 31800 Tel: (1 212) 231 2500     Tel: (33 1) 7842 3823   Tel: (618) 9224 0888    Tel: (82 2) 3705 8500   Tel: (86 21) 6841 3355
Singapore               Sydney                 Taipei                 Tokyo                    Toronto
Tel: (65) 6601 1111     Tel: (612) 8232 9555   Tel: (886 2) 2734 7500 Tel: (81 3) 3512 7900    Tel: (1 416) 848 3500
Available to clients on the world wide web at www.macquarieresearch.com and through Thomson Financial, FactSet, Reuters, Bloomberg, CapitalIQ and
TheMarkets.com.




13 April 2011                                                                                                                                                           8
Asia Research
Head of Equity Research                                   Oil, Gas and Petrochemicals                             Transport & Infrastructure
John O’Connell (Global Co – Head)     (612) 8232 7544     Linda Huang (Hong Kong)             (852) 3922 4068     Anderson Chow (China, Asia)            (852) 3922 4773
David Rickards (Global Co – Head)     (44 20) 3037 4399   Jal Irani (India)                   (9122) 6653 3040    Janet Lewis (Asia, Japan)              (813) 3512 7475
Chris Hunt (Asia – Head)              (852) 3922 1119     Polina Diyachkina (Japan)           (813) 3512 7886     Wei Sim (China, Hong Kong)             (852) 3922 3598
Tim Smart (Asia – Deputy Head)        (852) 3922 3565     Shawn Park (Korea)                  (822) 3705 8669     Chang Han Joo (Korea)                  (822) 3705 8511
                                                          Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia)          (603) 2059 8993     Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia)             (603) 2059 8993
Automobiles/Auto Parts                                    Trevor Buchinski (Thailand)         (662) 694 7829      Utilities
Leah Jiang (China)                    (8621) 2412 9020
                                                          Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare                          Adam Worthington (Asia)                (852) 3922 4626
Linda Huang (Hong Kong)               (852) 3922 4068
Clive Wiggins (Japan)                 (813) 3512 7856     Jonathan Hsu (Hong Kong)            (852) 3922 4625     Carol Cao (China, Hong Kong)           (852) 3922 4075
Dan Lucas (Japan)                     (813) 3512 6050     Abhishek Singhal (India)            (9122) 6653 3052    Jeff Evans (India)                     (9122) 3356 3053
Michael Sohn (Korea)                  (82 2) 3705 8644    Christina Lee (Korea)               (852) 3922 3571     Ayako Mitsui Boston (Japan)            (813) 3512 7885
                                                          Chinnarat Boonmahanark (Thailand)   (662) 694 7985      Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia)          (603) 2059 8989
Banks and Non-Bank Financials                                                                                     Alex Pomento (Philippines)             (632) 857 0899
                                                          Property
Ismael Pili (Asia, Hong Kong)         (852) 3922 4774                                                             Commodities
Victor Wang (China)                   (852) 3922 1479     Callum Bramah (Asia)                (852) 3922 4731
                                                          Eva Lee (China, Hong Kong)          (852) 3922 3573     Jim Lennon                             (4420) 3037 4271
Alastair Macdonald (Japan)            (813) 3512 7476
                                                          Eugene Cheung (Hong Kong)           (852) 3922 4627     Max Layton                             (4420) 3037 4273
Mudit Painuly (India)                 (9122) 6653 3044
                                                          Unmesh Sharma (India)               (9122) 6653 3170    Jan Stuart                             (1 212) 231 2485
Suresh Ganapathy (India)              (9122) 6653 3042
                                                          Felicia Barus (Indonesia)           (6221) 2598 8480    Duncan Hobbs                           (4420) 3037 4497
Ferry Wong (Indonesia)                (6221) 515 7335
                                                          Hiroshi Okubo (Japan)               (813) 3512 7433     Bonnie Liu                             (8621) 2412 9008
Chan Hwang (Korea)                    (822) 3705 8643
                                                          Chang Han Joo (Korea)               (822) 3705 8511     Graeme Train                           (8621) 2412 9035
Alex Pomento (Philippines)            (632) 857 0899                                                              Rakesh Arora                           (9122) 6653 3054
Matthew Smith (Malaysia, Singapore)   (65) 6601 0981      Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia)          (603) 2059 8993
Jemmy Huang (Taiwan)                  (8862) 2734 7530    Alex Pomento (Philippines)          (632) 857 0899      Data Services
Passakorn Linmaneechote (Thailand)    (662) 694 7728      Tuck Yin Soong (Singapore)          (65) 6601 0838
                                                                                                                  Andrea Dailly (Asia)                   (852) 3922 4076
                                                          Elaine Cheong (Singapore)           (65) 6601 0839
Apichet Kiatworakun (Thailand)        (662) 694 7724                                                              Eric Yeung                             (852) 3922 4077
                                                          Corinne Jian (Taiwan)               (8862) 2734 7522
Conglomerates                                             Patti Tomaitrichitr (Thailand)      (662) 694 7727      Economics
Leah Jiang (China)                    (8621) 2412 9020    Resources / Metals and Mining                           Richard Jerram (Asia, Japan)           (65) 6601 0842
Alex Pomento (Philippines)            (632) 857 0899                                                              Philip McNicholas (ASEAN)              (65) 6601 0982
                                                          Andrew Dale (Asia)                  (852) 3922 3587
                                                                                                                  Richard Gibbs (Australia)              (612) 8232 3935
Consumer and Gaming                                       Graeme Train (China)                (8621) 2412 9035
                                                                                                                  Paul Cavey (China)                     (852) 3922 3570
Gary Pinge (Asia)                     (852) 3922 3557     Carol Cao (China, Hong Kong)        (852) 3922 4075
                                                                                                                  Renee Chen (Hong Kong, Taiwan)         (852) 3922 3597
Linda Huang (Hong Kong)               (852) 3922 4068     Pelen Ji (China, Hong Kong)         (852) 3922 4741
                                                          Christina Lee (Hong Kong)           (852) 3922 3571     Quantitative / CPG
Toby Williams (Japan)                 (813) 3512 7392
Lyall Taylor (Indonesia)              (6221) 2598 8489    Rakesh Arora (India)                (9122) 6653 3054    Martin Emery (Asia)                    (852) 3922 3582
HongSuk Na (Korea)                    (822) 3705 8678     Adam Worthington (Indonesia)        (852) 3922 4626     Viking Kwok (Asia)                     (852) 3922 4735
                                                          Albert Saputro (Indonesia)          (6221) 515 7340     Burke Lau (Asia)                       (852) 3922 5494
Alex Pomento (Philippines)            (632) 857 0899
                                                          Polina Diyachkina (Japan)           (813) 3512 7886     George Platt (Australia)               (612) 8232 6539
Amit Mishra (India)                   (91) 22 6653 3051
                                                          Chak Reungsinpinya (Thailand)       (662) 694 7982      Patrick Hansen (Japan)                 (813) 3512 7876
Best Waiyanont (Thailand)             (662) 694 7993
                                                          Technology                                              Ayumu Kuroda (Japan)                   (813) 3512 7569
Emerging Leaders                                                                                                  Simon Rigney (Japan)                   (813) 3512 7872
                                                          Jeffrey Su (Asia)                   (8862) 2734 7512
Jake Lynch (China, Asia)              (8621) 2412 9007
                                                          Stephen Chow (China, Hong Kong)     (852) 3922 3634     Strategy/Country
Jonathan Hsu (China, Hong Kong)       (852) 3922 4625
                                                          Lisa Soh (China)                    (852) 3922 1401     Michael Kurtz (Asia)                   (852) 3922 1403
Saiyi He (Hong Kong)                  (852) 3922 3585     Nitin Mohta (India)                 (9122) 6653 3050    John Woods (Asia)                      (852) 3922 4636
Robert Burghart (Japan)               (813) 3512 7853     Damian Thong (Japan)                (813) 3512 7877     Mark Matthews (Asia)                   (65) 6601 0841
Industrials                                               David Gibson (Japan)                (813) 3512 7880     Peter Eadon-Clarke (Asia, Japan)       (813) 3512 7850
                                                          George Chang (Japan)                (813) 3512 7854     Jiong Shao (China, Hong Kong)          (852) 3922 3566
Inderjeetsingh Bhatia (India)         (9122) 6653 3166
                                                          Michiko Kakiya (Japan)              (813) 3512 7868     Rakesh Arora (India)                   (9122) 6653 3054
Linda Huang (Hong Kong)               (852) 3922 4068
                                                          Yukihiro Goto (Japan)               (813) 3512 5984     Ferry Wong (Indonesia)                 (6221) 515 7335
Janet Lewis (Japan)                   (813) 3512 7475
                                                          Daniel Kim (Korea)                  (822) 3705 8641     David Gibson (Japan)                   (813) 3512 7880
Yuki Soga (Japan)                     (813) 3512 7859
                                                          Benjamin Ban (Korea)                (822) 3705 8659     Chan Hwang (Korea)                     (822) 3705 8643
Chang Han Joo (Korea)                 (822) 3705 8511
                                                          Andrew Chang (Taiwan)               (8862) 2734 7526    Kieran Calder (Malaysia)               (603) 2059 8992
Juwon Lee (Korea)                     (822) 3705 8661
                                                          Daniel Chang (Taiwan)               (8862) 2734 7516    Yeonzon Yeow (Malaysia)                (603) 2059 8982
Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia)            (603) 2059 8993
                                                          Jimmy Hsu (Taiwan)                  (8862) 2734 7533    Alex Pomento (Philippines)             (632) 857 0899
David Gambrill (Thailand)             (662) 694 7753
                                                          Kylie Huang (Taiwan)                (8862) 2734 7528    Daniel Chang (Taiwan)                  (8862) 2734 7516
Insurance                                                 Telecoms                                                David Gambrill (Thailand)              (662) 694 7753
Scott Russell (Asia)                  (852) 3922 3567     Keith Neruda (Asia)                 (65) 6601 0830
Chung Jun Yun (Korea)                 (822) 2095 7222                                                             Find our research at
                                                          Tim Smart (China)                   (852) 3922 3565     Macquarie:       www.macquarie.com.au/research
Media and Internet                                        Lisa Soh (China, Hong Kong)         (852) 3922 1401     Thomson:         www.thomson.com/financial
                                                          Riaz Hyder (Indonesia)              (6221) 2598 8486    Reuters:         www.knowledge.reuters.com
Jiong Shao (China, Hong Kong)         (852) 3922 3566     Nathan Ramler (Japan)               (813) 3512 7875     Bloomberg:       MAC GO
Steve Zhang (China, Hong Kong)        (852) 3922 3578     Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia)       (603) 2059 8989     Factset:         http://www.factset.com/home.aspx
Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia)         (603) 2059 8989     Joseph Quinn (Taiwan)               (8862) 2734 7519    CapitalIQ        www.capitaliq.com
Alex Pomento (Philippines)            (632) 857 0899      Best Waiyanont (Thailand)           (662) 694 7993      TheMarkets.com www.themarkets.com
                                                                                                                  Email macresearch@macquarie.com for access


Asia Sales
Regional Heads of Sales                                   Regional Heads of Sales cont’d                          Sales Trading cont’d
Robin Black (Asia)                    (852) 3922 2074     Miki Edelman (Taiwan)               (8862) 2734 7580    Chris Reale (New York)                 (1 212) 231 2555
Chris Gray (ASEAN)                    (65) 6601 0288      Angus Kent (Thailand)               (662) 694 7601      Marc Rosa (New York)                   (1 212) 231 2555
Peter Slater (Boston)                 (1 617) 598 2502    Michael Newman (Tokyo)              (813) 3512 7920     Stanley Dunda (Indonesia)              (6221) 515 1555
Jeffrey Shiu (China & Hong Kong)      (852) 3922 2061     Angus Innes (UK/Europe)             (44) 20 3037 4841   James Aitchison (Korea)                (822) 3705 9990
Thomas Renz (Geneva)                  (41) 22 818 7712    Rob Fabbro (UK/Europe)              (44) 20 3037 4865   Kenneth Cheung (Malaysia)              (603) 2059 8888
Andrew Mouat (India)                  (9122) 6653 3200    Sean Alexander (Generalist)         (852) 3922 2101     Michael Santos (Philippines)           (632) 857 0813
Kenneth Yap (Indonesia)               (6221) 515 1555     Regional Head of Distribution                           Isaac Huang (Taiwan)                   (8862) 2734 7582
JJ Kim (Korea)                        (822) 3705 8799                                                             Dominic Shore (Thailand)               (662) 694 7707
Jason Lee (Malaysia)                  (603) 2059 8888     Justin Crawford (Asia)              (852) 3922 2065
                                                                                                                  Alternative Strategies
Chris Gould (Malaysia)                (603) 2059 8888     Sales Trading
Gino C Rojas (Philippines)            (632) 857 0761                                                              Convertibles - Roland Sharman          (852) 3922 2095
                                                          Adam Zaki (Asia)                    (852) 3922 2002     Depository Receipts – Seung-Jin Lee    (65) 6601 0203
Greg Norton-Kidd (New York)           (1 212) 231 2527
                                                          Yat Quan Tan (Hong Kong)            (852) 3922 2028     Derivatives – Mark Holland             (852) 3922 2081
Luke Sullivan (New York)              (1 212) 231 2507
                                                          Phil Sellaroli (Japan)              (813) 3512 7837     Futures - Tim Smith                    (852) 3922 2113
Eric Roles (New York)                 (1 212) 231 2559
                                                          Matthew Ryan (Singapore)            (65) 6601 0288      Structured Products - Andrew Terlich   (852) 3922 2013
Sheila Schroeder (San Francisco)      (1 415) 762 5001
                                                          Mike Keen (Europe)                  (44) 20 3037 4905

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麦格理证券研究:2011年4月中国互联网流量监测观察报告(下载)

  • 1. CHINA Internet Traffic Tracker Valuation Summary Stock code Company Mkt price Rating TP (US$) Beyond the stories (US$) SINA US Sina 111.3 OP 95.0 Event BIDU US Baidu 140.7 OP 145.0 DANG US Dangdang 19.4 OP 36.0  This report is our first issue of Internet Traffic Tracker to analyse Internet YOKU US Youku 53.0 UP 32.0 traffic data and trends of leading Chinese websites in major segments such as Source: Macquarie Research, April 2011 th Prices as of 12 April, 2011 portals, search, video, e-commerce, miniblog, and SNS. While investors and analysts alike often are captivated by the exciting “stories” of Internet companies, we believe the traffic data can help substantiate the fundamentals beyond just the “stories”. Key observations include online video is a lot more competitive than many believe and SNS is not growing much. Retain Outperform on Sina, Baidu, Dangdang and Underperform on Youku. Impact  Portal. It is an oligopoly segment and the data shows that Internet users increasingly gravitate towards the top 5 portal sites for news. However, NetEase has lost share in its portal (163.com). Given it is a mature segment, relatively modest change in market share is expected. All leading portals have other major businesses.  Search. It is a duopoly segment but appears to be moving to a near monopoly segment. Baidu has been gaining share at the expense of Google China and Soso (Tencent). With its partnership with Alibaba, Sogou (Sohu) has been ramping up its user base.  Online video. It is a highly fragmented and competitive segment with 8 video sites having over 30% penetration into the total Internet video user population in China. In addition, the data does not capture the peer-to-peer video software users, implying the segment is even more competitive than the data here suggests. Youku remains the leader but Qiyi and Sohu are catching up fast. Surprisingly, smaller sites such as Xunlei, 56 and K6 have been able to hold on to their users and grow in line with the market, with total users +30% YoY.  E-commerce. Number of ecommerce users is growing at 50+% YoY, faster than any other segment except miniblog. Group buy players such as Lashou are rapidly ramping up user base. Among conventional B2C players, market share and visitor patterns have seen little change. Dangdang is holding on to its penetration rate in monthly unique visitors despite competitive concerns.  Miniblog. Hottest segment in Internet in China with total miniblog users up 10x from a year ago. Sina’s Weibo still dominant but Tencent and Sohu appear to be catching up.  Social Network Services. Despite a lot of attention placed on SNS by investors and analysts, the space is not growing much in China. #1 SNS site Renren has been maintaining its user base while #2 Kaixin is seeing a YoY decline in its monthly unique visitor counts. Jiong Shao, CFA, CMT +852 3922 3566 jiong.shao@macquarie.com Outlook Steve Zhang, CFA +852 3922 3578 steve.zhang@macquarie.com  We continue to believe that Chinese Internet has entered into a new phase Jose Pun +852 3922 3593 jose.pun@macquarie.com with many new business models having emerged. With quite a few exciting “stories”, it is important for analysts and investors to figure out what is real and 13 April 2011 what is talk. Therefore, we believe analysis of data traffic is a critical element Macquarie Capital Securities Limited of Internet research. Please refer to the important disclosures and analyst certification on inside back cover of this document, or on our website www.macquarie.com.au/disclosures.
  • 2. Macquarie Research Internet Traffic Tracker Analysis Portals (Oligopoly) – Internet users increasingly rely on top portal sites; pecking order unlikely to change anytime soon The total number of monthly unique visitors increased 18% YoY and reached 373.6 mn in Feb 2011, suggesting over 80% of Chinese Internet users visited portal sites in that month. Given portal is a mature segment of the Chinese Internet industry, significant market share shift and meaningful change in competitive positioning among players should not be expected. However, we have observed that NetEase’s portal site (163.com) has lost some share in terms of % of portal users who visited 163.com over the last few months according to the data below. In addition, the data suggests that outside of the top 5 portal sites (qq.com, sina.com.cn, 163.com, sohu.com, ifeng.com) the rest of the portals appear to be losing Internet users’ interest. Across the board, a smaller percentage of total portal visitors are using tier 2 portal sites (yahoo.com.cn, msn.com.cn, china.com, yahoo.com, tom.com, 21cn.com, msn.com) today than a year ago. Generally speaking, Chinese Internet users appear to increasingly gravitate towards top portal sites for news. We expect this trend to continue. Fig 1 Web portal monthly unique visitors (‘m) Web portal monthly unique visitors('m) 2010-01 2010-02 2010-03 2010-04 2010-05 2010-06 2010-07 2010-08 2010-09 2010-10 2010-11 2010-12 2011-01 2011-02 Total 306.8 315.6 372.1 365.7 350.7 346.7 359.0 359.8 357.9 348.3 355.8 358.8 367.4 373.6 qq.com 283.1 287.1 347.1 344.4 324.8 325.3 339.2 339.3 336.5 328.7 336.1 335.4 344.1 350.0 sina.com.cn 234.7 218.5 271.0 279.2 266.2 269.2 275.4 276.6 267.7 272.8 275.6 279.9 281.3 289.7 163.com 210.3 178.2 235.3 244.5 229.7 227.9 231.0 236.0 228.7 228.2 233.4 238.9 234.8 230.0 sohu.com 188.9 167.3 221.2 226.9 214.7 217.6 212.9 214.1 203.1 211.4 212.9 219.2 222.9 229.2 ifeng.com 83.7 66.3 91.4 99.9 90.2 89.8 90.7 96.2 99.9 105.0 104.9 106.0 104.9 105.9 yahoo.com.cn 92.4 71.7 100.6 121.5 108.5 107.6 107.7 101.2 95.2 94.8 95.5 101.5 99.8 95.2 msn.com.cn 76.4 65.7 92.4 98.3 85.9 84.2 81.4 81.4 74.0 72.1 88.7 71.6 66.6 63.3 china.com 31.4 23.8 32.1 33.0 35.3 33.7 31.9 36.1 37.7 39.3 33.1 33.0 31.5 32.3 yahoo.com 30.4 22.3 31.7 33.7 32.2 33.0 31.1 31.8 29.9 30.3 30.0 29.2 26.9 28.5 tom.com 43.1 31.5 40.6 42.7 39.2 45.5 39.9 37.8 35.6 34.1 29.4 25.1 25.6 24.4 21cn.com 24.3 19.5 26.3 29.4 33.0 34.3 32.7 26.5 22.0 23.9 23.9 22.8 24.9 21.8 msn.com 18.9 14.8 18.7 19.9 21.9 22.7 20.4 23.9 17.4 17.8 34.9 20.1 19.7 18.4 Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 2011 Fig 2 Web portal penetration rate (‘m) Web portal penetration rate 2010-01 2010-02 2010-03 2010-04 2010-05 2010-06 2010-07 2010-08 2010-09 2010-10 2010-11 2010-12 2011-01 2011-02 qq.com 92.3% 91.0% 93.3% 94.2% 92.6% 93.8% 94.5% 94.3% 94.0% 94.4% 94.5% 93.5% 93.7% 93.7% sina.com.cn 76.5% 69.2% 72.8% 76.4% 75.9% 77.6% 76.7% 76.9% 74.8% 78.3% 77.5% 78.0% 76.6% 77.5% 163.com 68.5% 56.5% 63.2% 66.9% 65.5% 65.7% 64.3% 65.6% 63.9% 65.5% 65.6% 66.6% 63.9% 61.6% sohu.com 61.6% 53.0% 59.5% 62.0% 61.2% 62.8% 59.3% 59.5% 56.8% 60.7% 59.8% 61.1% 60.7% 61.4% ifeng.com 27.3% 21.0% 24.6% 27.3% 25.7% 25.9% 25.3% 26.7% 27.9% 30.1% 29.5% 29.5% 28.6% 28.3% yahoo.com.cn 30.1% 22.7% 27.0% 33.2% 30.9% 31.0% 30.0% 28.1% 26.6% 27.2% 26.9% 28.3% 27.2% 25.5% msn.com.cn 24.9% 20.8% 24.8% 26.9% 24.5% 24.3% 22.7% 22.6% 20.7% 20.7% 24.9% 20.0% 18.1% 16.9% china.com 10.2% 7.5% 8.6% 9.0% 10.1% 9.7% 8.9% 10.0% 10.5% 11.3% 9.3% 9.2% 8.6% 8.6% yahoo.com 9.9% 7.1% 8.5% 9.2% 9.2% 9.5% 8.7% 8.8% 8.3% 8.7% 8.4% 8.1% 7.3% 7.6% tom.com 14.1% 10.0% 10.9% 11.7% 11.2% 13.1% 11.1% 10.5% 9.9% 9.8% 8.3% 7.0% 7.0% 6.5% 21cn.com 7.9% 6.2% 7.1% 8.0% 9.4% 9.9% 9.1% 7.4% 6.1% 6.9% 6.7% 6.3% 6.8% 5.8% msn.com 6.2% 4.7% 5.0% 5.5% 6.3% 6.5% 5.7% 6.7% 4.9% 5.1% 9.8% 5.6% 5.4% 4.9% Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 2011 13 April 2011 2
  • 3. Macquarie Research Internet Traffic Tracker Search (duopoly but moving to monopoly) – Baidu has strengthened its market leadership; Google & Soso (Tencent) losing ground In Feb 2011, 356.5mn Internet users searched the web, up 21% YoY. While investors and analysts often look at search query market share to analyse market positioning of different search engines, we are using monthly unique visitors here but have reached a similar conclusion – Baidu has been strengthening its market leadership at the expense of almost every other search engine. Specifically, 95% of search users today in China use Baidu compared to 90% a year ago. On the other hand, the percentage of search users in China who have been using Google and Soso has been generally declining over the last year. In Feb 2011, roughly 43% and 27% of search users visited Google and Soso, respectively, both figures down noticeably from a year ago. Sogou (Sohu), however, has been gradually increasing its market penetration according to the data below. In Feb 2011, 18% of Internet search users used Sogou compared to the low teens a year ago. Fig 3 Web search monthly unique visitors (‘m) Web search monthly unique visitors('m) 2010-01 2010-02 2010-03 2010-04 2010-05 2010-06 2010-07 2010-08 2010-09 2010-10 2010-11 2010-12 2011-01 2011-02 Total 291.7 294.8 350.4 348.9 331.2 332.5 342.5 342.7 341.4 333.8 340.6 344.8 349.8 356.5 Baidu 267.0 267.4 328.4 332.1 308.3 311.3 320.0 321.0 319.0 313.9 320.6 325.9 332.2 337.7 Google China 168.2 140.7 187.8 186.9 168.5 171.5 177.5 174.7 172.5 168.1 160.8 157.6 154.1 154.5 Soso 99.9 86.8 101.0 106.4 99.6 108.0 111.6 105.7 112.5 110.9 100.8 112.7 100.9 97.3 Sogou 39.9 29.8 42.6 50.0 43.3 43.3 62.5 64.7 59.3 56.6 57.0 58.2 62.4 63.7 Google 39.6 28.8 46.9 50.0 42.8 41.7 43.5 45.1 41.2 44.3 41.1 39.8 36.2 38.9 Bing 21.5 15.2 24.2 24.5 21.7 22.3 21.4 21.0 20.7 20.8 23.7 21.2 21.6 20.0 Youdao 9.4 5.8 8.4 11.6 15.1 15.4 15.6 17.6 18.7 23.1 22.6 22.9 15.4 14.7 Gougou 22.4 15.6 17.8 19.3 21.4 19.2 18.9 14.8 13.3 13.9 12.8 10.2 10.1 9.1 Yahoo China 4.7 3.0 4.4 5.1 5.6 5.4 4.5 5.4 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.6 2.9 2.9 Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 2011 Fig 4 Web search penetration rate (by monthly unique visitors) Web search penetration rate 2010-01 2010-02 2010-03 2010-04 2010-05 2010-06 2010-07 2010-08 2010-09 2010-10 2010-11 2010-12 2011-01 2011-02 Baidu 91.5% 90.7% 93.7% 95.2% 93.1% 93.6% 93.4% 93.7% 93.4% 94.0% 94.1% 94.5% 95.0% 94.7% Google China 57.7% 47.7% 53.6% 53.6% 50.9% 51.6% 51.8% 51.0% 50.5% 50.4% 47.2% 45.7% 44.1% 43.3% Soso 34.3% 29.4% 28.8% 30.5% 30.1% 32.5% 32.6% 30.8% 33.0% 33.2% 29.6% 32.7% 28.9% 27.3% Sogou 13.7% 10.1% 12.1% 14.3% 13.1% 13.0% 18.2% 18.9% 17.4% 17.0% 16.7% 16.9% 17.8% 17.9% Google 13.6% 9.8% 13.4% 14.3% 12.9% 12.6% 12.7% 13.2% 12.1% 13.3% 12.1% 11.5% 10.3% 10.9% Bing 7.4% 5.2% 6.9% 7.0% 6.5% 6.7% 6.2% 6.1% 6.1% 6.2% 7.0% 6.2% 6.2% 5.6% Youdao 3.2% 2.0% 2.4% 3.3% 4.6% 4.6% 4.5% 5.1% 5.5% 6.9% 6.6% 6.6% 4.4% 4.1% Gougou 7.7% 5.3% 5.1% 5.5% 6.5% 5.8% 5.5% 4.3% 3.9% 4.2% 3.7% 3.0% 2.9% 2.6% Yahoo China 1.6% 1.0% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.3% 1.6% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.8% Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 2011 Video (highly fragmented and competitive) – 8 video sites that have 30% or higher penetration rate among video viewers; Qiyi the fastest grower In Feb 2011, there were 343mn Internet video users in China, up 30% YoY, and eight video sites each had at least 30% penetration among Internet video users, suggesting a highly fragmented marketplace. In other words, for each of these 8 sites, at least 30% of the Chinese Internet video users visited the site in the month of Feb. Over the last 12 months, Youku has gained modestly in penetration to now about 65% while #2 player Tudou has largely maintained its penetration of around 55%. The biggest share gainers are Qiyi and Sohu. Since its inception less than a year ago, Qiyi now has about 30% penetration. With significant investments in video, Sohu has been gradually improving its penetration from mid 20s a year ago to high 30s today. Somewhat surprisingly, smaller players such as Ku6, Xunlei, and 56 have largely maintained their penetration rate. While many industry observers have been predicting upcoming industry consolidation, the reality appears, for the time being, that the Chinese Internet video industry today remains highly fragmented and competitive. We also highlight that the data below excludes peer-to-peer software sub-segment of the Internet video industry, making the online video market even more competitive. 13 April 2011 3
  • 4. Macquarie Research Internet Traffic Tracker Fig 5 Online video website monthly unique visitors (‘m) Online video website monthly unique visitors ('m) 2010-01 2010-02 2010-03 2010-04 2010-05 2010-06 2010-07 2010-08 2010-09 2010-10 2010-11 2010-12 2011-01 2011-02 Total 270.5 264.3 309.4 315.8 305.5 307.9 318.9 324.5 317.1 313.9 322.9 329.3 335.6 343.4 Youku 171.1 153.5 182.1 193.7 194.8 199.2 207.3 213.7 203.0 206.5 203.6 209.4 215.9 225.6 Tudou 152.0 134.4 152.9 165.9 167.7 170.2 177.0 183.6 176.1 177.1 175.6 182.4 186.7 188.9 Sohu 61.8 65.7 81.7 81.3 84.5 84.1 91.6 95.5 84.9 89.3 95.7 107.9 119.6 128.0 Qiyi - - - 2.1 2.6 2.2 28.1 43.4 44.6 50.4 51.6 56.3 76.5 102.4 Ku6 98.2 79.1 90.8 101.1 110.8 124.0 125.0 123.3 110.5 113.0 120.1 120.3 122.0 112.4 Sina 107.0 88.5 104.0 110.6 114.0 107.6 107.4 117.2 114.4 119.2 122.4 115.5 117.7 124.0 Xunlei 112.3 94.3 108.7 117.1 122.0 119.9 120.3 118.0 111.4 115.1 105.5 109.5 129.2 120.5 56 95.7 81.4 95.3 103.7 113.1 110.0 108.1 112.7 103.7 110.7 103.6 110.5 107.0 106.7 PPTV 30.6 34.8 39.9 32.9 30.6 45.6 48.5 49.2 38.5 41.8 51.6 54.6 56.3 46.5 CNTV 31.5 35.7 40.1 45.1 41.7 72.6 58.3 52.9 52.4 58.0 65.9 59.0 67.1 73.7 PPS 45.3 40.9 40.8 48.9 48.2 50.4 55.9 54.7 48.4 52.6 55.0 54.4 60.5 56.8 Six Rooms 36.2 29.7 30.6 28.6 29.4 32.7 34.6 36.2 27.8 26.3 27.9 26.0 27.3 33.0 Joy.cn 41.2 35.1 43.3 43.0 47.7 51.4 50.8 51.4 49.4 48.7 35.9 34.7 40.0 41.9 Letv 15.2 19.6 19.2 19.6 18.5 17.4 20.0 30.9 26.3 25.1 25.2 28.4 35.9 42.8 Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 2011 Fig 6 Online video website penetration rate (by monthly unique visitors) Online video website penetration rate 2010-01 2010-02 2010-03 2010-04 2010-05 2010-06 2010-07 2010-08 2010-09 2010-10 2010-11 2010-12 2011-01 2011-02 Youku 63.3% 58.1% 58.9% 61.3% 63.8% 64.7% 65.0% 65.8% 64.0% 65.8% 63.0% 63.6% 64.3% 65.7% Tudou 56.2% 50.9% 49.4% 52.5% 54.9% 55.3% 55.5% 56.6% 55.5% 56.4% 54.4% 55.4% 55.6% 55.0% Sohu 22.8% 24.8% 26.4% 25.8% 27.7% 27.3% 28.7% 29.4% 26.8% 28.4% 29.6% 32.8% 35.6% 37.3% Qiyi 0.7% 0.9% 0.7% 8.8% 13.4% 14.1% 16.1% 16.0% 17.1% 22.8% 29.8% Ku6 36.3% 29.9% 29.3% 32.0% 36.3% 40.3% 39.2% 38.0% 34.9% 36.0% 37.2% 36.5% 36.4% 32.7% Sina 39.5% 33.5% 33.6% 35.0% 37.3% 35.0% 33.7% 36.1% 36.1% 38.0% 37.9% 35.1% 35.1% 36.1% Xunlei 41.5% 35.7% 35.1% 37.1% 39.9% 38.9% 37.7% 36.4% 35.1% 36.7% 32.7% 33.2% 38.5% 35.1% 56 35.4% 30.8% 30.8% 32.8% 37.0% 35.7% 33.9% 34.7% 32.7% 35.3% 32.1% 33.6% 31.9% 31.1% PPTV 11.3% 13.2% 12.9% 10.4% 10.0% 14.8% 15.2% 15.1% 12.1% 13.3% 16.0% 16.6% 16.8% 13.5% CNTV 11.6% 13.5% 12.9% 14.3% 13.7% 23.6% 18.3% 16.3% 16.5% 18.5% 20.4% 17.9% 20.0% 21.5% PPS 16.7% 15.5% 13.2% 15.5% 15.8% 16.4% 17.5% 16.9% 15.3% 16.8% 17.0% 16.5% 18.0% 16.5% Six Rooms 13.4% 11.2% 9.9% 9.0% 9.6% 10.6% 10.8% 11.2% 8.8% 8.4% 8.6% 7.9% 8.1% 9.6% Joy.cn 15.2% 13.3% 14.0% 13.6% 15.6% 16.7% 15.9% 15.8% 15.6% 15.5% 11.1% 10.5% 11.9% 12.2% Letv 5.6% 7.4% 6.2% 6.2% 6.1% 5.7% 6.3% 9.5% 8.3% 8.0% 7.8% 8.6% 10.7% 12.5% Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 2011 E-commerce (fast growing; steady competitive landscape) – 51% YoY growth in unique visitors; group buying is the new trend In Feb 2011, there were a total of 290.8mn online shoppers, up from 192.7mn a year earlier, +51% YoY. We highlight that the growth rate in unique visitors for ecommerce is higher than that for video, which may be counter-intuitive for some given all the attention placed on video by investors. Generally speaking, most of the leading ecommerce sites, such as Taobao and Dangdang, have largely maintained their penetration rates among online shoppers. Another general observation is that group buying sites have been embraced by online shoppers with top group buy sites such as Lashou and Meituan having reached double-digit penetration among internet shoppers in less than a year of being in operation. For Dangdang, despite intensifying competition in ecommerce area, the company has largely maintained its double-digit penetration rate. Fig 7 E-commerce website monthly unique visitors (‘m) E-commerce monthly unique visitors('m) 2010-01 2010-02 2010-03 2010-04 2010-05 2010-06 2010-07 2010-08 2010-09 2010-10 2010-11 2010-12 2011-01 2011-02 Total 216.7 192.7 249.1 260.7 249.2 250.4 260.9 272.2 271.7 270.1 276.2 290.4 289.2 290.8 Taobao (C2C) 151.7 127.6 174.9 188.9 184.2 182.9 190.3 200.0 202.1 199.6 211.8 220.1 217.9 205.1 Taobao Mall (B2C) - - - - - - - - - - 92.2 107.8 103.1 87.9 Taobao (Group buy) - - - - - - 22.6 32.3 26.0 31.3 52.3 76.2 75.6 67.0 Paipai (C2C) 51.5 36.2 48.1 52.0 54.3 55.6 58.3 59.6 59.2 60.7 60.4 72.1 63.6 62.7 Alibaba China (B2B) 51.9 34.7 55.7 56.0 54.9 67.8 67.4 75.3 76.1 82.0 73.4 70.6 47.3 49.1 Laishou (Group buy) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 9.1 13.8 20.4 29.0 33.7 43.9 45.1 48.6 360Buy (B2C) 20.7 17.0 25.9 28.1 26.6 33.1 35.2 38.2 37.1 36.1 34.6 41.9 39.4 35.6 Meituan (Group buy) - - - - - 0.9 5.6 9.9 12.3 13.0 15.0 23.6 30.4 34.1 Dangdang (B2C) 26.2 16.7 27.1 30.1 28.1 29.5 30.1 33.7 32.0 33.2 33.0 36.6 30.6 30.4 Amazon China (B2C) 25.3 18.1 27.9 29.3 27.1 24.9 27.0 26.7 28.9 29.2 26.4 30.2 29.5 29.3 Tencent (Group buy) - - - - - - 2.8 5.0 8.0 12.3 12.3 19.3 25.1 25.9 Alibaba (B2B) 13.1 9.0 20.7 21.1 24.6 31.2 31.6 32.4 27.5 32.0 31.1 37.7 25.9 23.8 Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 2011 13 April 2011 4
  • 5. Macquarie Research Internet Traffic Tracker Fig 8 E-commerce website penetration rate (by monthly unique visitors) E-commerce penetration rate 2010-01 2010-02 2010-03 2010-04 2010-05 2010-06 2010-07 2010-08 2010-09 2010-10 2010-11 2010-12 2011-01 2011-02 Taobao (C2C) 70.0% 66.2% 70.2% 72.5% 73.9% 73.1% 72.9% 73.5% 74.4% 73.9% 76.7% 75.8% 75.3% 70.5% Taobao Mall (B2C) 33.4% 37.1% 35.7% 30.2% Taobao (Group buy) 8.6% 11.9% 9.6% 11.6% 18.9% 26.2% 26.1% 23.0% Paipai (C2C) 23.8% 18.8% 19.3% 20.0% 21.8% 22.2% 22.3% 21.9% 21.8% 22.5% 21.9% 24.8% 22.0% 21.6% Alibaba China (B2B) 24.0% 18.0% 22.4% 21.5% 22.0% 27.1% 25.8% 27.7% 28.0% 30.3% 26.6% 24.3% 16.3% 16.9% Laishou (Group buy) 0.5% 3.5% 5.1% 7.5% 10.7% 12.2% 15.1% 15.6% 16.7% 360Buy (B2C) 9.6% 8.8% 10.4% 10.8% 10.7% 13.2% 13.5% 14.0% 13.7% 13.4% 12.5% 14.4% 13.6% 12.2% Meituan (Group buy) 0.3% 2.1% 3.7% 4.5% 4.8% 5.4% 8.1% 10.5% 11.7% Dangdang (B2C) 12.1% 8.7% 10.9% 11.5% 11.3% 11.8% 11.5% 12.4% 11.8% 12.3% 11.9% 12.6% 10.6% 10.4% Amazon China (B2C) 11.7% 9.4% 11.2% 11.2% 10.9% 10.0% 10.4% 9.8% 10.6% 10.8% 9.6% 10.4% 10.2% 10.1% Tencent (Group buy) 1.1% 1.9% 3.0% 4.6% 4.5% 6.7% 8.7% 8.9% Alibaba (B2B) 6.0% 4.6% 8.3% 8.1% 9.9% 12.5% 12.1% 11.9% 10.1% 11.8% 11.3% 13.0% 8.9% 8.2% Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 2011 Miniblog (hottest segment; probably to become more competitive) – battle continues on; SINA remains dominant In Feb, there were a total of 206mn miniblog monthly unique visitors in China, according to iResearch. We decided to use daily unique visitor stats for the miniblog segment as opposed to monthly unique visitor stats because of the rapidly changing market environment and significant difference in activeness of miniblog users on different sites. For example, both Sina and Tencent had over 100mn unique visitors in Feb, but Sina had 14.2mn daily unique visitors that month while Tencent had 8.7mn, suggesting that Sina’s miniblog users log on more often (on daily basis) than Tencent miniblog users. In terms of the penetration rate, Sina has broadly maintained its 50% penetration rate (ie half of China’s average daily miniblog users logged onto Sina’s Weibo) while Tencent and Sohu appear to be catching up to now hold about 30% and 15% penetration rate, respectively, while Baidu’s and Qihoo’s miniblog user base penetration has declined over the past year. Sina has the first mover advantage in the miniblog space and all top three players here are making significant investments in this hotly contested segment. Fig 9 Miniblog daily unique visitors (‘000) Miniblog daily unique visitors ('000) 2010-03 2010-04 2010-05 2010-06 2010-07 2010-08 2010-09 2010-10 2010-11 2010-12 2011-01 2011-02 Total 3,841 5,415 6,829 9,566 9,770 11,050 12,398 13,201 16,686 19,535 24,092 28,424 Sina weibo 1,760 2,507 3,203 4,462 5,130 6,288 6,642 7,210 9,437 10,640 12,292 14,229 Tencent miniblog 67 330 774 1,161 1,132 1,660 2,052 2,547 3,094 4,273 6,371 8,686 Sohu miniblog 120 332 537 994 708 443 860 820 1,718 2,273 4,021 4,125 Baidu miniblog 872 1,166 1,166 1,864 1,876 1,909 1,668 1,602 1,537 1,699 1,616 2,364 Qihoo miniblog 966 980 1,047 1,065 1,013 1,084 1,343 1,248 1,367 1,311 1,175 1,235 Netease miniblog 76 178 261 473 328 225 280 312 443 585 772 1,132 iFeng miniblog - - - - - - 20 93 104 114 181 196 Digu miniblog 103 78 94 115 73 68 47 51 56 69 82 107 Twitter - - - - - - - - - - - 86 Tongxue miniblog 111 101 109 88 73 79 239 102 56 47 43 51 Zuosa miniblog 47 38 33 26 34 22 25 22 24 22 31 36 Follow5 miniblog - 38 18 32 24 18 21 21 32 20 20 33 9911 miniblog 49 44 34 36 27 36 33 34 18 20 32 19 Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 2011 13 April 2011 5
  • 6. Macquarie Research Internet Traffic Tracker Fig 10 Miniblog penetration rate (by daily unique visitors) Miniblog penetration rate 2010-03 2010-04 2010-05 2010-06 2010-07 2010-08 2010-09 2010-10 2010-11 2010-12 2011-01 2011-02 Sina weibo 45.8% 46.3% 46.9% 46.6% 52.5% 56.9% 53.6% 54.6% 56.6% 54.5% 51.0% 50.1% Tencent miniblog 1.7% 6.1% 11.3% 12.1% 11.6% 15.0% 16.6% 19.3% 18.5% 21.9% 26.4% 30.6% Sohu miniblog 3.1% 6.1% 7.9% 10.4% 7.2% 4.0% 6.9% 6.2% 10.3% 11.6% 16.7% 14.5% Baidu miniblog 22.7% 21.5% 17.1% 19.5% 19.2% 17.3% 13.5% 12.1% 9.2% 8.7% 6.7% 8.3% Qihoo miniblog 25.1% 18.1% 15.3% 11.1% 10.4% 9.8% 10.8% 9.5% 8.2% 6.7% 4.9% 4.3% Netease miniblog 2.0% 3.3% 3.8% 4.9% 3.4% 2.0% 2.3% 2.4% 2.7% 3.0% 3.2% 4.0% iFeng miniblog 0.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% Digu miniblog 2.7% 1.4% 1.4% 1.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% Twitter 0.3% Tongxue miniblog 2.9% 1.9% 1.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Zuosa miniblog 1.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Follow5 miniblog 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 9911 miniblog 1.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 2011 Social Networking (highly concentrated segment but not really growing) – It Is a two horse race, but neither horse is running very fast Despite all the fanfare, growth of user base of leading Chinese social networking sites has not been overly impressive, with total user growth of 18% YoY in Feb 2011, in line with total Chinese Internet user growth. Contrary to the experience in the West (ie Facebook), social networks have not been embraced by Chinese Internet users as widely. Broadly speaking, leading SNS site Renren’s monthly unique visitors have been flattish over the last 12 month while #2 player Kaixin has been seeing a decline in its monthly visitor count. There are many theories behind why Facebook-like social networks don’t seem to get the same traction in China. For the time being, we have decided to discount the monthly unique visitor stats for Tencent’s social networking offering as we believe iResearch or Tencent may have reclassified some of the Tencent traffic into Pengyou traffic as our on-the-ground checks suggested that not many people have used Tencent social networking sites. Fig 11 Social Network Services website monthly unique visitors (‘m) SNS monthly unique visitors ('m) 2010-01 2010-02 2010-03 2010-04 2010-05 2010-06 2010-07 2010-08 2010-09 2010-10 2010-11 2010-12 2011-01 2011-02 Total 209.3 185.5 226.8 234.1 214.3 212.1 216.8 226.1 218.3 219.1 219.8 221.8 229.8 217.9 Tencent Pengyou - - - - - - - - - - - 37.2 134.3 135.2 Renren 84.7 71.2 95.1 99.1 92.4 92.5 94.5 95.0 89.3 97.6 95.1 97.7 99.7 92.8 Kaixin 49.2 44.1 64.4 65.1 47.3 45.2 47.7 46.8 42.2 41.2 39.5 35.7 38.3 39.0 51.com 29.5 21.4 26.4 27.2 26.3 22.9 25.7 27.1 24.9 25.7 24.6 23.9 28.2 31.0 MySpace.cn 12.7 7.2 12.7 14.5 14.5 17.5 15.0 16.4 14.1 15.0 11.3 6.3 8.5 9.0 Jiaxingquan - - - - - - - - - - - - 4.0 7.9 China mobile - - - - - - - 9.1 10.5 10.1 9.4 9.8 6.6 6.3 Sohu 20.9 19.2 17.2 12.8 11.3 7.2 6.6 10.6 7.0 4.4 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.5 Facebook 3.9 3.2 3.3 4.3 4.0 3.7 3.5 4.0 3.3 3.6 3.0 3.9 4.5 4.2 Niwota.com 3.3 2.0 2.1 1.7 2.3 2.6 3.3 3.7 3.1 2.5 2.1 1.6 1.7 1.8 iPart.cn 2.2 2.1 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.7 3.0 2.9 3.2 2.8 2.2 1.9 3.6 0.8 MySpace 1.4 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 2011 Fig 12 Social Network Services website penetration rate (monthly unique visitors) SNS penetration rate 2010-01 2010-02 2010-03 2010-04 2010-05 2010-06 2010-07 2010-08 2010-09 2010-10 2010-11 2010-12 2011-01 2011-02 Tencent Pengyou 17% 58% 62% Renren 40% 38% 42% 42% 43% 44% 44% 42% 41% 45% 43% 44% 43% 43% Kaixin 24% 24% 28% 28% 22% 21% 22% 21% 19% 19% 18% 16% 17% 18% 51.com 14% 12% 12% 12% 12% 11% 12% 12% 11% 12% 11% 11% 12% 14% MySpace.cn 6% 4% 6% 6% 7% 8% 7% 7% 6% 7% 5% 3% 4% 4% Jiaxingquan 2% 4% China mobile 4% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% Sohu 10% 10% 8% 5% 5% 3% 3% 5% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% Facebook 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% Niwota.com 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% iPart.cn 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 0% MySpace 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Source: iResearch, Macquarie Research, April 2011 13 April 2011 6
  • 7. Macquarie Research Internet Traffic Tracker Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions Volatility index definition* Financial definitions Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand This is calculated from the volatility of historical All "Adjusted" data items have had the following Outperform – return >3% in excess of benchmark return price movements. adjustments made: Neutral – return within 3% of benchmark return Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for Underperform – return >3% below benchmark return Very high–highest risk – Stock should be catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, expected to move up or down 60–100% in a year IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal – investors should be aware this stock is highly Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend speculative. revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & yield minority interests Macquarie – Asia/Europe High – stock should be expected to move up or Outperform – expected return >+10% down at least 40–60% in a year – investors should EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% be aware this stock could be speculative. ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets Underperform – expected return <-10% ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average Medium – stock should be expected to move up total assets Macquarie First South - South Africa or down at least 30–40% in a year. 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