The Future of The Web: Transmission TX2 Talk

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A 'less animated' version of the 'Future Of The Web' talk given by Dan Zambonini, of Box UK, at Transmission 2, on 25 November 2009 in Manchester.

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The Future of The Web: Transmission TX2 Talk

  1. 1. future The of the web Dan Zambonini
  2. 2. My wife hates me. Isn’t the future glorious?
  3. 3. Why discuss the future? build relevant apps learn the right skills safeguard your data invest in relevant companies It’s All About The Benjamins Puff Daddy, “No Way Out”, 1997
  4. 4. ghost the of web past
  5. 5. Traditional Method of Discussing Web History • 1969 Arpanet • 1971 Email I Don’t Like That P. Diddy, “The Saga Continues”, 2001 • 1974 TCP/IP • 1977 The Modem • 1978 Bulletin Board System • 1979 MUD • 1979 Usenet • 1984 DNS • 1988 IRC • 1991 Web (HTML/HTTP) • 2004 Web 2.0 / AJAX
  6. 6. Average Selling Price ($US, Inflation Adjusted)! 0! 500! 1000! 1500! 2000! 1995! 2500! 1996! 1997! 1998! PCs! 1999! 2000! 2001! 2002! Digital Cameras! Flickr 2003! 2004! YouTube 2005! Facebook Broadband Speed! 2006! 2007! 2008! 2009! 5! 0! 15! 25! 10! 20! US Broadband Speed (Mbps)!
  7. 7. Idea Execution Context
  8. 8. Victims of Context? no critical mass of families broadband not prevalent dot-com bust
  9. 9. ghost the of web present
  10. 10. Number of Users (million)! % World Population! % US Adults Online! 2000! 90! 1800! 80! Number of Users (millions)! 1600! 70! Population Online (%)! 1400! Acquisitions: $billions 60! 1200! .com registered: 11m 50! 1000! 40! 800! 30! 600! 20! 400! 200! 10! 0! 0! 1996! 1997! 1998! 1999! 2000! 2001! 2002! 2003! 2004! 2005! 2006! 2007! 2008! 2009!
  11. 11. http://pewinternet.org
  12. 12. http://pewinternet.org
  13. 13. http://pewinternet.org
  14. 14. Techcrunch50 2008
  15. 15. Gartner Hype Cycle peak of inflated expectations plateau of productivity slope of enlightenment trough of disillusionment visibility technology trigger time
  16. 16. modern technology web 2010 1900 1950 2000 2050
  17. 17. 2010: the trough of disillusionment
  18. 18. An increasing feeling of disconnection with the real world “The more time people spend using the Internet, the more they lose contact with their social environment.” (Stanford University Report) i'm gonna give up my efforts of becoming a web developer, finish all my design jobs and start drawing letters again. one day soon. i think i'm gonna give up So I'm thinking I might give up the computer/internet for a week. internet...maybe =/ first myspace goes to shit, then facebook and now twitter has gone the same way! i give up with the internet, where's my pad and pen gone?
  19. 19. ghost the of web future
  20. 20. Idea Execution Demographics Context Needs Audience Behaviours Infrastructure Economics
  21. 21. Contextual Inevitability #1 - Mobile Growth
  22. 22. Contextual Inevitability #2 - Web Dependence connection speed connection ubiquity time
  23. 23. Contextual Inevitability #2 - Web Dependence value of web apps reliance on web apps time
  24. 24. Contextual Inevitability #3 - Data Overload News Cycle (hours)! Volume (updates per day)! 14! 300! 12! 250! 10! 200! 8! 150! 6! 100! 4! 50! 2! 0! 0! 2000! 2005! 2010!
  25. 25. Contextual Inevitability #3 - Data Overload News Cycle (hours)! Volume (updates per day)! 14! 300! 12! 250! 10! 200! 8! 150! 6! 100! 4! 50! 2! 0! 0! 2000! 2005! 2010!
  26. 26. Contextual Inevitability #3 - Data Overload News Cycle (hours)! Volume (updates per day)! 14! 300! 12! 250! 10! 200! 8! 150! 6! 100! 4! 50! 2! 0! 0! 2000! 2005! 2010!
  27. 27. Contextual Inevitability #4 - Invisible Infrastructure infrastructure cost accessible computing power Chrome OS time
  28. 28. Contextual Inevitability #5 - Smaller Companies
  29. 29. Contextual Inevitability #5 - Smaller Companies
  30. 30. Summary: The Future Context • Feeling of Disconnection • Sophisticated Mobile Ubiquity • Web Dependence • Information Overload • Invisible Infrastructure • Many Small Producers, Few Platform Providers What will flourish under these conditions?
  31. 31. nowhere
  32. 32. hyperrecent hyperlocal now here
  33. 33. #1 AUGMENTED REALITY
  34. 34. http://tinyurl.com/arkeyboard
  35. 35. impact of HTML5 & AR number of users novice user sophistication geek
  36. 36. #1.5 HTML 5
  37. 37. Web Audience non-geeks geeks
  38. 38. Web Creators non-geeks geeks
  39. 39. #2 LOCATION BASED SERVICES
  40. 40. #3 BROKERS / MARKETPLACES
  41. 41. Brokers/Marketplaces Microsoft FriendFeed Microsoft Google Facebook Apple News Retail Info Social TV Movies Games Music Location Photo Video
  42. 42. #4 MICROPAYMENTS
  43. 43. • PayPal (5% + $0.05) • Google Checkout (3.4% + £0.20) • Amazon Flexible Payment Service (From 2% + $0.05) • Facebook? • Twitter? • Better Than Free? Kevin Kelly / Seth Godin
  44. 44. #5 NOSQL http://www.rackspacecloud.com/blog/2009/11/09/nosql-ecosystem/
  45. 45. Technologies I Question • Adobe AIR • Semantic Web / RDF • OpenID / Single Identity / Sign On • Virtual Worlds
  46. 46. Problems To Solve: Technologies? • People Who Walk Slowly • Doctor Who Fans • The Rudimentary Design of The Toilet • Michael McIntyre • Recruitment Agents • Jedward
  47. 47. Problems To Solve: Technologies? • RSS / Content • Blurring of Work / Personal Lives • Novices Creating Web Content / Services • Data / API / Services Search (Broker?) • SEO • Spam • Trust • Privacy
  48. 48. Photo Credits / Sources • http://www.flickr.com/photos/wiedmaier/12149900/ • http://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2009/10/19/24-hour-daylight-1960.html • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Christmas_Carol • http://www.flickr.com/photos/shainerin/3795049297/ • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle • http://www.flickr.com/photos/42dreams/1878611309/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/cultr/3265160711/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/wvs/2961076514/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/frogdna/3684414371/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/fattytuna/3165260564/ • http://pewinternet.org/Static-Pages/Trend-Data/Whos-Online.aspx • http://pewinternet.org/Infographics/The-Future-of-the-Internet-III.aspx please copy, use, improve, remix and share this presentation
  49. 49. boxuk.com Thanks amaxus.com danzambonini.com dan@boxuk.com danzambonini@googlemail.com thejanuarist.com ignitelondon.net cardiffwebscene.com I’ll Be Missing You zombievirusfund.com Puff Daddy, “No Way Out”, 1997 twitter.com/boxuk twitter.com/amaxus twitter.com/zambonini twitter.com/twitexperiment twitter.com/thejanuarist twitter.com/freelondon twitter.com/ignite_london facebook.com/zambonini linkedin.com/in/zambonini google.com/profiles/danzambonini Or just talk to me. Dan Zambonini

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