Final Project Gis 4048 Dwr6

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Study on how major hurricane would effect the historical sites of St. john\'s county.

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Final Project Gis 4048 Dwr6

  1. 1. Major Hurricane Landfall Storm Surge Analysis <br />St. John’s County, Florida<br />Analysis of Historical Site Locations and Damage<br /> Produced by David Renna<br />GIS 4048/ Application in GIS<br /> 08/04/2010<br />
  2. 2. Introduction<br />Hurricane Season: June 1 – Nov. 30<br />No major hurricane direct landfall<br />Last direct landfall- Dora,1964 Cat.2<br />St. John’s County is oldest historic area in U.S.<br />More historic sites in county than anywhere else (4400)<br />County economy dependent on tourism<br />Tourism dependent on existence of historical sites<br />What would happen to historic sites if major hurricane made direct landfall?<br />
  3. 3. Study Area<br />St. John’s County, Florida<br />Located in North East Florida<br />Surrounded by the Atlantic Ocean to the East, Duval County to the North, Clay and Putnam Counties to the West and Flagler County to the South.<br />
  4. 4. BackgroundSt. Augustine, Fl<br />America’s oldest town <br />Founded in 1513 by Ponce de Leon in an effort to find the exact location of the “Fountain of Youth”<br />Established in 1565<br />Spanish settlers have occupied area for 500 years<br />Spanish, British, French , and Indian settlements battled over rights to these lands for 300 years<br />In the efforts of control of lands, hundreds of forts were built in times of war<br />Forts are displayed throughout St. John’s County <br />
  5. 5. BackgroundSt. John’s County Historic Sites<br />163,000 Federal applications for historic site designation<br />4400 designated sites used for this study<br />Historic sites are prime reason for tourism in St. John’s County.<br />Historic sites:<br />forts<br />churches<br />schoolhouses <br />jails<br />museums<br />houses<br />lighthouses <br />DowMuseum<br />St. Augustine Lighthouse<br />St. AugustineCathedral<br />Oldest Schoolhouse<br />
  6. 6. BackgroundMajor Hurricane Direct Landfall<br />No major hurricane has ever made direct landfall in St. John’s County<br />Last Direct Landfall: Hurricane Dora, 1964, Category 2<br />Last East coast landfall of major hurricane Jeanne in 2004(S. Florida, Cat.3)<br />Major Hurricanes as designated by NOAA are Category 3 or greater<br />NOAA Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale<br />Designed model at fas.org<br />
  7. 7. Elevation<br />Highest elevation in St. John’s County~ 75 ft.<br />More than 75% of historic sites in areas considered to have low elevation and close proximity to water<br />Large concentrations of historic sites in St. Augustine historic downtown area in middle Eastern portion of county and in South West Region of St. John’s County<br />Smaller clusters of historic sites along St. John’s river, intracoastal waterway and along beaches<br />St. John’s County surrounded by water from St. John’s River to the West and the Atlantic ocean to the East<br />
  8. 8. Downtown St. Augustine<br />Closer view of downtown St. Augustine<br />Thousands of historic structures in downtown alone<br />Almost all sites along waterways<br />Large cluster of historic structures in very small area<br />
  9. 9. Flood AnalysisCategory 3 HurricanePercentage Flooded Lands<br />29.179% of total area flooded.<br />Historic sites within ~ 1.5-2 miles of coast all under water.<br />Historical sites along St. John’s river under water as arterial rivers and canals flood.<br />Downtown St. Augustine full engulfed.<br />Approximately half historic structures (over 2000) in county destroyed due to storm surge.<br />
  10. 10. Flood AnalysisCategory 4 HurricanePercentage Flooded Lands<br />34.39% total area flooded<br />Historic sites within ~ 2- 2.5 miles of coast under water<br />All historic sites along St. John’s river under water <br />Additional flooding along arterial rivers and canals moving Eastward and covering most areas of South West St. John’s County<br />Historic Downtown St. Augustine completely destroyed due to storm surge<br />Flooding moving West past US 1 and engulfing more than 70% of historic sites<br />
  11. 11. Flood AnalysisCategory 5 HurricanePercentage Flooded Lands<br />47.23% total area flooded<br />Historic sites within ~ 3-4 miles of coast under water<br />All historic sites along St. John’s River completely destroyed<br />Complete flooding of Western portion of St. John’s County<br />All arterial rivers and canals engulfed by rising waters<br />Nearly 90% of all historic sites destroyed in St. John’s County due to storm surge<br />
  12. 12. Additional Wind DamageNOAA Guidelines<br />Category 3 Hurricane : <br />Poorly constructed frame homes destroyed by the removal of the roof and exterior walls. <br />Unprotected windows will be broken by flying debris.<br /> Well-built frame homes can experience major damage due to roof removal.<br />Category 4 Hurricane: <br />Poorly constructed and well-built homes can sustain complete collapse of all walls as well as the loss of the roof structure. <br />Windborne debris damage will break most unprotected windows and penetrate some protected windows.<br />Category 5 Hurricane: <br />A high percentage of frame homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. <br /> Windborne debris damage will occur to nearly all unprotected windows and many protected windows.<br />
  13. 13. Results<br />Category 3: <br /> 29% of total lands flooded <br />Historical site along coastline and along St. John’s River flooded. <br />Downtown St. Augustine under water. Nearly 50% all historical sites under water. <br />Wind damage would also be substantial.<br />Category 4: <br />34% of total lands flooded. <br />Historical sites within 2.5 miles of coast and St. John’s River flooded . <br />70% of historical sites under water. <br />Wind damage at catastrophic levels.<br />Category 5:<br />47% of total lands flooded.<br />Historical sites within 3.5 miles of coast line and along St. John’s River and arterial canals completely destroyed.. <br />90% of historical sites under water. <br />All structure completely destroyed by storm surge and wind damage.<br />
  14. 14. Conclusion<br />The importance of the historical sites to St. John’s County is evident. <br />The tourism due to these site is the only viable means of income to this area. <br />A hurricane of category 3 or higher would completely destroy the economics of the area. <br />All of the historical sites in St. John’s County would be destroyed. <br /> Hurricanes have traditionally remained well off our coast. It has been a long time since St. John’s County has had a direct landfall. <br />Study shows the importance of readiness in the face of crisis.<br />Due to results there is hope that local and government official put more thought into protecting these structures. <br />Perhaps new laws laying out formal plans to protect historical structures in such an event are in our near future. <br />
  15. 15. References<br />Corbett, Theodore G. “Migration to a Spanish Imperial Frontier in the Seventeenth and Eighteenth Centuries: St. Augustine” , The Hispanic American Historical Review, Volume 54. No. 3(August 1974), pp. 414-430.<br />Wolkomir, R. “in Search of St. Augustine”, The Smithsonian, Volume 32, No. 7 (October 2001). Pp. 114-120.<br />Historical Markers of Florida, Division of Historical Resources, Florida Historical Markers Program, Florida Heritiage.com, http://flheritage.com/preservation/markers/markers.cfm/ID-st.johns<br />NOAA Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, National Oceanic and Aviation Administration, http://www.fas.org<br />The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Summary Table, National Oceanic and Aviation Administration, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/sshws_table.shtml<br />Data Sources: <br />St. John’s County Data Depot http://www.sjcfl.us/BCC/Land_Management/GIS/DataDepot.aspx<br />Florida Geographic Data Library<br /> http://www.fdgl.org/<br />

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