Jonathan R. White www.cengage.com/cj/white Chapter 17:Security, Terrorism, and the Future Rosemary Arway Hodges University
Emerging Issues in Anti-Terrorist Security Policy Congress requires a Quadrennial Homeland Security Review (QHSR) similar to that required of the Department of Defense. The first QHSR was conducted in 2009.
Multi-level Communication and Sharing All federal agencies need to develop procedures to ensure that their activities complement one another. Agencies need to develop methods for encouraging communications. It is necessary to share information.
The Private Industry Problem Private industries are becoming involved in homeland security, replacing defense activities traditionally performed by the government. The boundaries between government and private functions are difficult to determine. Rothe and Ross believe that private companies are circumventing constraints on government power.
Homeland Security and Foreign Policy Homeland Security will be increasingly determined by foreign policy. Homeland Security will, according to Robert Gates, rely increasingly on partner capacity; that is the ability of nations to defend themselves. This requires a flexible foreign policy with sound congressional oversight and a clear national emphasis on consistent long-term behavior.
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Malley and Harling (2010) argue that the U.S. must take a more pragmatic approach in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict. This should include recognizing differences between militant groups, engaging all countries in the region, and encouraging Israeli peace efforts with other state actors in the region. Daniel Byman argues that Mideast peace talks must include Hamas. Stephen Kinser argues that the U.S. must strengthen relations with Turkey and begin to include Iran in discussions.
Absorbing an Attack Given that the best anti-terrorism efforts will fail in the future, the U.S. must take measures to assure that the country can recover socially, psychologically and militarily. The U.S. needs to develop the ability to absorb a major attack on one of its cities or critical aspect of its infrastructure. The involvement of nonstate actors (e.g. al Qaeda) affect military response to attacks.
Other Critical Issues Other critical issues include: education and training; settling the debate about the nature of terrorism; and managing both prosecution of terrorists and intelligence gathering. Education and training must include not only broad preparation in critical thinking, but also training in the specific complexities of terrorism.
Other Critical Issues Terrorism is treated as both a criminal justice and a military issue, leading to confusion in policy and action. Bryan Jenkins believes that, going beyond a focus on criminal prosecution, Joint Terrorism Task Forces can play a greater role in intelligence gathering.
Future Tactics While the basic tactics of terrorism remain relatively constant, terrorist groups develop innovative implementations. Recent events suggest growing importance of the following tactics: o Swarming and Multiple Attacks were used effectively in Mumbai in 2008 and later in an attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore, Pakistan.
Future Tacticso Blending Criminal and Terrorist Networks, especially in financial operations, will continue, but the two types of organizations have different significant differences in motivation for action and concerns for publicity.o Other tactical trends include use of cyberattacks, focus on smaller attacks, and (on the other hand) development of the capacity to use weapons of mass destruction.
Overcoming Barriers to Sharing Agencies, although encouraged to share information, may resist doing so for good reasons: leaked information may endanger operations and personnel. o The Nationwide Suspicious Activity Reporting System Initiative (NSI) is an attempt to deal with this problem. o Only agencies with an established National Criminal Intelligence Sharing Plan can participate in such a system.
Total Criminal Intelligence Intelligence Led Policing (ILP) involves collection of information on social problems, potential sources of crime, and offenders in order to deploy police forces effectively. o Expanding community involvement is also essential. Citizens who note unusual patterns of behavior (e.g. purchasing chemicals in large quantities) can provide important early warning to law enforcement.
Probable Strategic Directions Proteus USA is an international think tank designed to consider future strategic problems. Democratic accountability requires management of the security structure being developed and the need for new legal protections for privacy.
Domestic and International Terrorism Domestic and international terrorism each remain important issues. o While some analysts believe jihadist ideology is ultimately self-defeating, international groups still have the capacity to launch devastating strikes. o Right wing domestic terrorism may be fueled by the election of an African American president and a weak economy.