Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Cenovus 10yr-plan-update

1,266 views

Published on

  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Cenovus 10yr-plan-update

  1. 1. Cenovus Energy New ideas. New approaches. Updating 10-year plan – accelerating oil growth June 6, 2011 Forward-looking informationThis presentation contains certain forward-looking statements and other information (collectively “forward-looking information”) about our current expectations,estimates and projections, made in light of our experience and perception of historical trends. Forward-looking information in this presentation is identified by wordssuch as “anticipate”, “believe”, “expect”, “plan”, “forecast” or “F”, “target”, “project”, “could”, “focus”, “vision”, “goal”, “proposed”, “scheduled”, “outlook”, “potential”,“may” or similar expressions and includes suggestions of future outcomes, including statements about our growth strategy and related schedules, projected futurevalue or net asset value, forecast operating and financial results, planned capital expenditures, expected future production, including the timing, stability or growththereof, anticipated finding and development costs, expected reserves and contingent, prospective or in-place resources estimates, potential dividends and dividendgrowth strategy, anticipated timelines for future regulatory, partner or internal approvals, forecasted commodity prices, future use and development of technology andprojected increasing shareholder value. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking information as our actual results may differ materiallyfrom those expressed or implied.Developing forward-looking information involves reliance on a number of assumptions and consideration of certain risks and uncertainties, some of which are specificto Cenovus and others that apply to the industry generally. The factors or assumptions on which the forward-looking information is based include:assumptions inherent in our current guidance, available at www.cenovus.com; our projected capital investment levels, the flexibility of capital spending plans and theassociated source of funding; estimates of quantities of oil, bitumen, natural gas and liquids from properties and other sources not currently classified as proved;ability to obtain necessary regulatory and partner approvals; the successful and timely implementation of capital projects; our ability to generate sufficient cash flowfrom operations to meet our current and future obligations; and other risks and uncertainties described from time to time in the filings we make with securitiesregulatory authorities. The risk factors and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially, include: volatility of and assumptionsregarding oil and gas prices; the effectiveness of our risk management program, including the impact of derivative financial instruments and our access to varioussources of capital; accuracy of cost estimates; fluctuations in commodity prices, currency and interest rates; fluctuations in product supply and demand; marketcompetition, including from alternative energy sources; risks inherent in our marketing operations, including credit risks; maintaining a desirable ratio of debt toadjusted EBITDA and debt to capitalization; our ability to access external sources of debt and equity capital; success of hedging strategies; accuracy of our reserves,resources and future production estimates; our ability to replace and expand oil and gas reserves; the ability of us and ConocoPhillips to maintain our relationship andto successfully manage and operate our integrated heavy oil business; reliability of our assets; potential disruption or unexpected technical difficulties in developingnew products and manufacturing processes; refining and marketing margins; potential failure of new products to achieve acceptance in the market; unexpected costincreases or technical difficulties in constructing or modifying manufacturing or refining facilities; unexpected difficulties in manufacturing, transporting or refining ofcrude oil into petroleum and chemical products at two refineries; risks associated with technology and its application to our business; the timing and the costs of welland pipeline construction; our ability to secure adequate product transportation; changes in Alberta’s regulatory framework, including changes to the regulatoryapproval process and land-use designations, royalty, tax, environmental, greenhouse gas, carbon and other laws or regulations, or changes to the interpretation ofsuch laws and regulations, as adopted or proposed, the impact thereof and the costs associated with compliance; the expected impact and timing of variousaccounting pronouncements, rule changes and standards on our business, our financial results and our consolidated financial statements; changes in the generaleconomic, market and business conditions; the political and economic conditions in the countries in which we operate; the occurrence of unexpected events such aswar, terrorist threats and the instability resulting therefrom; and risks associated with existing and potential future lawsuits and regulatory actions against us.Non-GAAP measures: Operating cash flow, cash flow, debt to capitalization and debt to adjusted EBITDA have been described and presented in order to provideshareholders and potential investors with additional information regarding Cenovus’s liquidity and its ability to generate funds to finance its operations. Please reviewour most recent Report to Shareholders, or our June 6 2011 news release, available at www.cenovus.com, for definitions and a full discussion of the use of thesemeasures.The assumptions on which our updated ten year plan is based include: WTI of US$80.00/bbl for 2011, US$85.00-US$105.00/bbl for 2012-2021; Western CanadaSelect of US$64.00/bbl for 2011, US$71.00-US$85.00/bbl for 2012-2021; NYMEX of US$4.00/Mcf for 2011, US$4.00-US$6.00/Mcf for 2012-2021; AECO of $3.35/GJfor 2011, $3.30-$5.25/GJ for 2012-2021; Chicago 3-2-1 crack spread of US$19.00/bbl for 2011, US$9.00 for 2012-2021; exchange rate of $0.96 US$/C$ for 2011,$0.98-$1.07 US$/C$ for 2012-2021; and average number of shares outstanding of approximately 752 million. The other factors or assumptions on which the forward-looking information is based include: our projected capital investment levels, the flexibility of capital spending plans and the associated source of funding; estimatesof quantities of oil, bitumen, natural gas and liquids from properties and other sources not currently classified as proved; ability to obtain necessary regulatory andpartner approvals; the successful and timely implementation of capital projects; our ability to generate sufficient cash flow from operations to meet our current andfuture obligations; and other risks and uncertainties described from time to time in the filings we make with securities regulatory authorities.The forward-looking information contained in this presentation, including the underlying assumptions, risks and uncertainties, are made as of the date of thispresentation. For a full discussion of our material risk factors, see “Risk Factors” in our 2010 Annual Information Form and “Risk Management” in our most recentManagement’s Discussion and Analysis, available at www.sedar.com and www.cenovus.com. 1
  2. 2. Maintaining strategy; leveraging strengths• Building on track record • Proven development approach • Industry leading cost structures • Predictable oil production growth • Clearly identified milestones• Accelerating oil project timelines• Increasing oil production• Maintaining financial strength Focus on total shareholder return & building net asset valueUpdating the 10-year plan• What’s changed? • Accelerating oil sands timelines • Performance exceeding expectations • Increasing oil sands phase size at Foster Creek • Production growth driven by SOR performance • Growing conventional oil • Increasing module yard capacity• What’s stayed the same? • Preserving corporate strategy • Focusing on total shareholder return and building net asset value • Sustaining cost advantage • Maintaining financial strength 2
  3. 3. Accelerated project schedules Regulatory First production Expected production Project phase application filings target capacity (bbls/d) gross Foster Creek Prior New Prior New F Q2-2009 2014F 30,000 35,000 G Q2-2009 2016F 2015F 30,000 35,000 H Q2-2009 2017F 2016F 30,000 35,000 Future phases 2013F 2019F 2017F 25,000 45,000 – 65,000 Christina Lake D Q3-2007 Q2-2013F Q1-2013F 40,000 E Q4-2009 2014F 40,000 F Q4-2009 2016F 40,000 G Q4-2009 2017F 40,000 H 2013F 2019F 40,000 Narrows Lake Q2-2010 2016F 130,000 Grand Rapids Q4-2011F 2017F 180,000Timelines may be subject to regulatory and/or partner approvals.Manufacturing oil production growthMbbls/d500 Bitumen (prior) Pelican Lake (prior) GR 1F400 Other oil & NGLs (prior) CA 2 14% – 20 Bitumen (new) F 2 011 Pelican Lake (new)300 Other oil & NGLs (new)200100 0 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021FVolumes are shown before royalties and net to CVE. 2011F based on commodity price assumptions as outlined in the April27, 2011 guidance document. 2012F through 2021F based on future price assumptions as noted in the advisory. Forecastvolumes are estimates only and subject to regulatory and partner approvals. See advisory. 3
  4. 4. Committed to unlocking resource value• Technology and innovation • Focus on improving efficiencies, enhancing environmental performance, and lowering costs • Goal of commercializing at least one new technology each year• Stratigraphic well program • Focus on better understanding resource, supporting regulatory process, and moving resource toward production • Goal of drilling 450 strat wells in each of the next 5 years• SOR improvement • The key indicator of reservoir performanceSelf-funding organic growth $ billions 7 Committed capital Committed cash flow 6 Discretionary capital Discretionary cash flow 5 4 3 2 1 0 Average 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F (2016F - 2021F)2011F based on commodity price assumptions as outlined in the April 27, 2011 guidance document. 2012F through 2021Fbased on future price assumptions as noted in the advisory. 6

×