IT Warfare since 1997

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: 15년간의 IT전쟁의 역사와 삼국쟁패론
2011.9 제 2회 엔트리브 게임컨퍼런스에서 발표한 자료로, 3개월동안 30여명의 컨퍼런스 발표자들의 프레젠테이션을 트레이닝하고 같이 준비하면서 프레젠테이션에서 가장 준비하기 까다로운 서사시 플롯을 잡아 테마와 스토리를 만든 교육적 목적의 프레젠테이션이었다.

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IT Warfare since 1997

  1. 1. NtreevGameConference
  2. 2. IT Warfare Since 1997 Ntreev Game Conference
  3. 3. !Chapter!1.!게임의!룰 Osmos
  4. 4. !Chapter!2.!두!개의!전장 Enterprise & Consumer
  5. 5. Enterprise
  6. 6. Enterprise Consumer
  7. 7. Enterprise Consumer
  8. 8. Enterprise Consumer 고객의$차이 기업(법인) 개인
  9. 9. Enterprise Consumer Storage Server PCDB Back-End Network Front-End Office S/W PC OS
  10. 10. Enterprise Consumer 변화의$속도 느리다 빠르다
  11. 11. Enterprise Consumer
  12. 12. Music PhoneEnterprise Consumer Book TV Movie
  13. 13. Enterprise Consumer
  14. 14. Apple Data Center North Carolina-"10억달러의"설비투자-"HP"Server-"MS"Azure,"Amazone"AWS
  15. 15. Enterprise Consumer 3rd Suplier
  16. 16. Enterprise
  17. 17. Enterprise War!Chapter!3.!다섯!전쟁의!승리자들
  18. 18. 1. Database WAR 완벽한!승리자
  19. 19. ~1993 트로이카%시대Mainframe Market UNIX & Windows Market DB2 Informix
  20. 20. 1993~1994 치열한%전투메인프레임 소송 쇠퇴 Informix 매각
  21. 21. 1994~2000 재편성 Informix
  22. 22. 2000~2011독점적%지위
  23. 23. 2000~2011독점적%지위 MySQL
  24. 24. 2000~2011독점적%지위
  25. 25. Database%전쟁요약 ✓"600억달러"시장 ✓"독점적"지위"확립 ✓"시장점유율"50%"육박 ✓"매출"356억"달러 ✓"NC반란"(1996)"실패 ✓"ERP전쟁"(vs"SAP) ✓"서버전쟁"(Sun"인수)
  26. 26. 2. Server WAR 2강!1약으로!압축된!각축전!
  27. 27. 2002년말%상황430억달러"규모,"2001년"500억달러에서"8%감소"31.1% 25.2% 15.1% 7.5%
  28. 28. 2010년말%상황 488억달러"규모,"진입장벽"높음31.4% 30.8% 14.7% 6.3% 4.4%
  29. 29. Server%전쟁요약 ✓"10년전"시장규모"유지 ✓"SUN,"Compaq의"퇴출 ✓"IBM-HP"양강체제"10년 ✓"Dell의"꾸준한"성장 ✓"Cloud가"관건
  30. 30. 3. Network WAR 연전연승의!무결점타자
  31. 31. Router Hub LAN!Card
  32. 32. 70 %!market!share IP RouterTelephony Switch F5 Brocade Citrix
  33. 33. Network%전쟁요약 ✓"수많은"경쟁자,"일방적게임" ✓"압도적"점유율"70% ✓"600억달러의"시장 ✓"서버시장"노크중
  34. 34. 4. Storage WAR 거인들!사이에서!살아남다
  35. 35. Storage%전쟁요약 2010 Market Revenue Share1 EMC 5,441 25.6% ✓"꾸준히"시장을"지배2 IBM 2,922 13.8% ✓"212억달러의"규모3 NetApp 2,352 11.1% ✓"2위와"두배격차4 HP 2,352 11.1% ✓"많은"경쟁자5 Dell 1,926 9.1% ✓"서버"거인들의"참여 Others 6,229 29.3% 21,222
  36. 36. 5. PC WAR 기나!긴!전쟁,!상처뿐인!영광
  37. 37. 1996 70.9million 10% 8.6% 6.0% 5.9%5.1%
  38. 38. 1997 80.6million 13.1% 8.6% 5.5% 5.3%5.1%
  39. 39. 1998 92.9million 13.8% 8.2% 7.9% 5.8%4.3%
  40. 40. 1999 113.5million 13.2% 9.8% 7.9% 6.4%5.2%
  41. 41. 2000 134.7million 12.8% 10.8% 7.6% 6.8%4.3%
  42. 42. 2001 128.1million 13.1% 11.1% 7.2% 6.4%3.8%
  43. 43. 2002 132.4million 16.2% 15.2% 6.0%3.4%3.2%
  44. 44. 2003 168.9million 15.0% 14.3% 5.1%3.8%2.9%
  45. 45. 2004 189.0million 16.4% 14.6% 5.5%3.8%3.4%
  46. 46. 2005 218.5million 16.8% 14.5% 6.9%4.6%3.8%
  47. 47. 2006 239.4million 15.9% 15.9% 7.0% 5.8%3.8%
  48. 48. 2007 271.2million 18.2% 14.3% 8.9% 7.4%4.0%
  49. 49. 2008 302.2million 18.4% 14.3% 11.1% 7.2%4.5%
  50. 50. 2009 305.9million 19.3% 13.0% 12.2% 8.1%5.1%
  51. 51. 2010 325million 17.9% 12.9% 12.0% 9.7%5.4%
  52. 52. PC%전쟁의%중요변수 HP의$PC사업부$분사 iPad의$급속한$PC$시장잠식 Post$PC$Issue
  53. 53. 시장규모%비교 (2010년기준) PC Network DB Server Storage$1,400억 $600 $600 $400 $212
  54. 54. PC%전쟁요약 ✓"96년부터"4배성장 ✓"1400억"달러"규모 ✓"가장"많은"경쟁자포진 ✓"거인들의"이탈 ✓"Post"PC"이슈
  55. 55. $1,260 $999 $699 $652 $615 $432 $356 $292 $170
  56. 56. $1,260 $999 $432 $356 $170$1,400억 $600 $600 $400 $212 PC Network DB Server Storage
  57. 57. $1,260 $999 $432 $356 $170$1,400억 $600 $600 $400 $212 PC Network DB Server Storage
  58. 58. $1,260 $999 $432 $356 $170$1,400억 $600 $600 $400 $212 PC Network DB Server Storage
  59. 59. $1,260 $999 $432 $356 $170$1,400억 $600 $600 $400 $212 PC Network DB Server Storage
  60. 60. $1,260 $999 $432 $356 $170$1,400억 $600 $600 $400 $212 PC Network DB Server Storage
  61. 61. $1,260 $999 $432 $356 $170$1,400억 $600 $600 $400 $212 PC Network DB Server Storage
  62. 62. Enterprise War HardwareService Software
  63. 63. ConsumeEnterprise War War
  64. 64. ConsumeEnterprise War War
  65. 65. ConsumeEnterprise War War
  66. 66. !Chapter!4.!제국의!형성
  67. 67. 1984 ~1997 확실한%두개의%무기Windows MS Office
  68. 68. OS%전쟁%:일방적%학살 Win%NT 9.2% 압도적점유율 89 MS-DOS 10.1% Win95 % 69.7% (1997년%기준)
  69. 69. Word%전쟁%:%비열한전투(%) Win 3.0 Win 95100755025 0 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 WordPerfect Word for DOS Word for Win WP for Win
  70. 70. Excel%전쟁%:%비열한전투%2 Win 3.0 Win 95806040200 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Lotus 1-2-3 Quattro Excel
  71. 71. Market Share Windows 89% Office 94%
  72. 72. 1997 1,000 800 600 400$119 200
  73. 73. 1997 1,000 800 others 600 9% 400$119 Windows 200 42% 49% Office
  74. 74. 새로운%컴퓨팅%이데올로기Server% ClientBased!Computing Server%
  75. 75. Server% Based!ComputingApp!:!OData!:!O Server$ Client$
  76. 76. Client/Server%App!:!O Data!:!OData!:!O Client$ Server$
  77. 77. 남은숙제와%새로운전쟁✓$Windows/Office$주도권✓$반독점소송✓$브라우저$전쟁$vs$Netscape✓$새로운$수익원$:$서버부문✓$네트워크$컴퓨팅$진압$
  78. 78. 이$즈음$재등장한$인물이$있었으니...$
  79. 79. Steve Jobs
  80. 80. 총체적%난국뉴튼의"실패,"라이센싱"정책 Win VS
  81. 81. !Chapter!5.!권토중래
  82. 82. 1998iMac으로%기적적%생환
  83. 83. (단위:억달러) Software$71 20% Portable Desktop 17% 64%1997 9% 42% 49% Windows$119 Office
  84. 84. (단위:억달러) Software$71 $59 18% Portable Desktop 15% 66%1997 1998 11% 40% 48% Windows$119 $153 Office
  85. 85. (단위:억달러) Software$71 $59 $61 17% Portable 14% Desktop 69%1997 1998 1999 9% 45% 46% Windows$119 $153 $197 Office
  86. 86. Software 14%$71 $59 $61 $79 Portable Desktop 22% 64%1997 1998 1999 2000 (단위:억달러) Server 7% Windows 18% 33%$119 $153 $197 $229 41% Office
  87. 87. 2001iMac%제외하곤%신통찮은%성적
  88. 88. Software 18%$71 $59 $61 $79 $53 Desktop 52% 30% Portable1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 (단위:억달러) Server 8% Windows 20% 33%$119 $153 $197 $229 $252 39% Office
  89. 89. 2001중대한%전환점
  90. 90. 2001 두$대의$전함을$더$띄우다 WindowsOffice
  91. 91. 2001 두$대의$전함을$더$띄우다 Windows DNA Server Windows 2000 Windows SQL Server Exchange Server Visual StudioOffice X-Box
  92. 92. Browser$전쟁$승리85%%점유율 Windows$XP역대%최고%버전
  93. 93. iPod 2001 iTunes Mac$OS$X ‘Cheetah’
  94. 94. Software 18%$71 $59 $61 $79 $53 Desktop 52% 30% Portable1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 (단위:억달러) Server 8% Windows 20% 33%$119 $153 $197 $229 $252 39% Office
  95. 95. Software 18%$79 $53 Desktop 52% 30% Portable000 2001 (단위:억달러) Server 8% Windows 20% 33%$229 $252 39% Office
  96. 96. $79 $53000 2001 (단위:억달러)$229 $252
  97. 97. iPod 21%$79 $53 $57 Desktop 49% 30% Portable000 2001 2002 (단위:억달러) X-Box 13% Windows Server 34% 19%$229 $252 $283 34% Office
  98. 98. Consumer Market 주변기기 PC War Software
  99. 99. Consumer Market 주변기기 PC War Software MP3 Player의외의%행보 (Audio)
  100. 100. 그러나%완벽히%맞아%떨어진%작전
  101. 101. 2002 :%57억불 iPod 21% .Mac 49%MobileMe의$전신 30% Desktop Portable
  102. 102. 2003 :%62억불 Music Hardware 1%Music$Store iPod 11% 6% S/W 10% 39%Safari Desktop 33%iLife Portable
  103. 103. 반격의%움직임...
  104. 104. 2004 :%82억불 Hardware Music 3% 11% 29% iPod 16% Desktop 10% 31% S/W Portable
  105. 105. H10
  106. 106. iPod%nano
  107. 107. 2005 :%139억불 Hardware Music 8% 6% DesktopiPod%nano 25% iPod 33% 20% Portable 8% S/W
  108. 108. 2005 :%139억불 Hardware Music 8% 6% DesktopiWorks 25% iPod 33% 20% Portable 8% S/W
  109. 109. 2006 :%193억불 HardwareIntel$Mac 6% Music DesktopMacbook 10% 17% iPod 21% Portable 40% 7% S/W
  110. 110. ZuneWindows mobile
  111. 111. 2007iPhoneiPod touch
  112. 112. 2007IT역사의%큰%획을%그은%해
  113. 113. Portable AppleTV iPhone Pro App iWork Safari iLife Desktop Mac App Store App Store iPad iPod iOS Calendar Mac OS MovieGameCenter Mail Drama Book Music Podcast Cloud Photo Contacts
  114. 114. Software Hardware OSService Contents
  115. 115. Software Hardware OSService Contents
  116. 116. 애플%생태계 Software OS Service 개발자Contents Hardware 사용자 공급자
  117. 117. 이데올로기Client Server App Data Data App Data WEB
  118. 118. 이데올로기,%생태계%전쟁으로%몰고감
  119. 119. 2007 :%240억불 Hardware Music 5% iPhone 10% Desktop 1% 17% iPod 26% 35% Portable 6% S/W
  120. 120. 2008 :%374억불 Hardware Music 5% Desktop 9% 15% iPhone 18% 23% Portable iPod 24% 6% S/W
  121. 121. 2009 :%429억불 Hardware Music 3% Desktop 9% 10% iPhone 22% Portable 30% 6% 19% S/W iPod S/W
  122. 122. 2010 :%652억불 Hardware Music 8% Desktop iPad 3% 10% 8% Portable 17% 4% iPhone S/W 39% 13% iPod S/W
  123. 123. 2011 :%1,003억불 Desktop 17% 6% Portable Hardware iPad 13% 2% Music 6% S/W 3% 8% iPod iPhone 45% S/W
  124. 124. !Chapter!6.!거대한!계획
  125. 125. 태생적으로%%WEB%원리주의자
  126. 126. 1998
  127. 127. 1998 2002
  128. 128. 1998 2002 매출"4억$ "57억$ "283억$
  129. 129. 1998
  130. 130. 1998 2003 Ad"Sense 수익모델"확보
  131. 131. 주식공모 천문학적인" 자금조달1998 2003 2004 Ad"Sense 수익모델"확보
  132. 132. picasa bloger1998 2004
  133. 133. picasa bloger1998 2005 2004 Maps
  134. 134. Gmail Calendar picasa Youtube bloger1998 2005 2004 2006 Maps
  135. 135. Gmail Calendar picasa Youtube bloger1998 2005 2007 2004 2006 Maps Docs doubleclick
  136. 136. 1998 2007 2009 2008
  137. 137. 이데올로기Client Server App Data Data App Data WEB
  138. 138. 그러나$안드로이드,애플의$모델을$따라가다$
  139. 139. 이데올로기%혼란Client Server App Data Data App Data
  140. 140. ~2003
  141. 141. ~2007
  142. 142. ~2009
  143. 143. ~2011
  144. 144. $Chapter$7.$최후의$승리자는?
  145. 145. 1997$~$2010•엔터프라이즈$시장에$깊은$뿌리•제품$다양성$확보$2➔4개$부문•5배$성장$(119억$$➔$624억$)•Music,$Mobile$실패로$밀리는$양상•노림수$:$Windows$8
  146. 146. 1997$~$2010•생태계의$띠$완성단계$:$시너지•주체$못할$성장$(70억$$➔$652억$)•iCloud$성공여부가$변수•추가$노림수$:$$Apple$TV
  147. 147. 1997$~$2010•막강한$컨텐츠와$서비스$역량•All$Cloud$완성시$All$Kill까지$가능•수익모델$확보$(0$$➔$293억$)•떠나는$연합군$:$Motolora$인수여파•Adroid,$Chrome$OS$연계$?
  148. 148. 경쟁의%자격OS H/W App 서비스 컨텐츠
  149. 149. 경쟁의%자격OS H/W App 서비스 컨텐츠
  150. 150. 경쟁의%자격OS H/W App 서비스 컨텐츠
  151. 151. 경쟁의%자격OS H/W App 서비스 컨텐츠
  152. 152. 경쟁의%자격OS H/W App 서비스 컨텐츠
  153. 153. 경쟁의%자격OS H/W App 서비스 컨텐츠
  154. 154. •확실한$컨텐츠•저가형$타블렛$or$킨들•Cloud$Service$Platform
  155. 155. 그럼%나머지%회사들은?
  156. 156. 전쟁의%양상Client$Based Server$Based 제2전역 제1전역
  157. 157. 제%1%전역$Client$와$Server$양$진영의$ 이데올로기$전쟁 구글$입장에서$ 바라본$승리의$요건
  158. 158. 목표$:$값싸게$대량보급$하여$구글을$쉽게$이용하게$하는$것
  159. 159. 대량보급의$전제조건Cloud+WEB%App저사양,$최소한의$스토리지최소$App과$Chrome$탑재
  160. 160. 그러기$위해선...무제한$데이타$요금제
  161. 161. 무료$Wi-Fi$구축에$지대한$관심
  162. 162. 쉽.지.않.은.문.제
  163. 163. 유저경험의%부조화 Desktop: Mobile: WEB$Base App$BaseChroms OS Adroid
  164. 164. HP로부터의%교훈안드로이드$너무$비싸 TouchPad $99
  165. 165. WEB%App의%완성도 아직$갈길이$남았다 Office$대항마 touch$I/F$고려 차세대$WEB기술
  166. 166. 모토롤라%인수여파우군이$떠나고$있다 대량보급이$필요한$시점, 우군$상실은$뼈아픔
  167. 167. 종합평가 본격"전쟁에"나서기"약간"이른"느낌B- •높은$안드로이드$가격 •유저경험$부조화 •App$완성도 •모토롤라$인수여파
  168. 168. 전쟁의%양상Client$Based Server$Based 제2전역 제1전역
  169. 169. 또%다른%경쟁Client$Based
  170. 170. 애플의%MS공략법Core에%대한%공세Office$+$Windows Microsoft의$근본을$흔드는$것$
  171. 171. 왜%MS에%밀렸었나%? “소프트웨어가$없어” “호환성이$문제야”
  172. 172. 지금은%상황이%다름이제$앱은$애플의$최대강점호환성$문제,$거의$사라짐
  173. 173. 애플의%최대숙제App$Store의$앱과$개발자들을 Mac$OS내로$끌어들이는$것
  174. 174. Keynote$:iPhone,"iPad,"Mac""기기에"특화된"버전으로"상호작용
  175. 175. 애플의%소프트웨어%라인업iLifeiWorks
  176. 176. iPad%+%iWorks iPad$:$PC$성장세에$영향iPad iWork$:$Office에$필적 Numbers의"성장이"필수
  177. 177. 종합평가 3사중"가장"유리한"위치A •풍부한$App •App의$Mac$OS$유입 •iWorks
  178. 178. 또%다른%경쟁Client$Based
  179. 179. 두%가지%고민✓%Apple%보다%앞서%OS통합✓%Hardware를%가져야%하나?
  180. 180. Windows%8
  181. 181. ✓$Hardware를$가져야$하나? 인수합병시$구글처럼 우군이탈$가능성
  182. 182. 종합평가 사용할"수"있는"카드가"많지"않음B •풍부한$App •App의$Mac$OS$유입 •iWorks
  183. 183. 최종%승리의%가능성A B B-
  184. 184. 만약%패배한다면 iOS가"밀린다면"1997년" 최초"시작모드로"돌아갈"것 Windows+Office"결계가" 깨진다해도"오래"버틸듯 검색과"온라인"서비스"부문 만으로"물러나"앉을"것
  185. 185. 소비자가%바라는%것 ‘3자%균형’ ✓"경쟁이"발전을"촉발 ✓"취향에"따라"다양한"선택" Win"8로"개성을" Pure"SVC의"모습잡스나"건강하길 유지하며"버텨줄것 으로"돌아가길
  186. 186. IT Warfare 의"IT삼국지 www.demitrio.com

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