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N.Ireland Education and Business Breakfast Meeting, Nov 2019

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Full set of slides from Education & Employers Business Breakfast meeting on 20th November 2019. The event was organised by Prospects Events and Dr Deirdre Hughes OBE, DMH Associates. Addressing skills gaps and skills mismatch, including labour market intelligence, careers, choices and future preferences.

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N.Ireland Education and Business Breakfast Meeting, Nov 2019

  1. 1. Education and Business Networking Breakfast Sponsored by Edge Foundation Headline Sponsor:
  2. 2. Introduction and welcome Gabrielle McEvans & Dr Deirdre Hughes OBE, Skills Northern Ireland
  3. 3. The future of work and skills Olly Newton, Edge Foundation Sponsor of Skills Northern Ireland Business Breakfast
  4. 4. 1. Skills shortages are large and have grown significantly Source: Employer Skills Survey 2017
  5. 5. Source: Open University Business Barometer 2018 2. Skills shortages are have high costs to the economy and society
  6. 6. 3. Employers are looking for technical and transferable skills (1) Source: Employer Perspectives Survey (2016)
  7. 7. Source: Research by Edge, Education & Employers, NEU (to be published) 4. Employers are looking for technical and transferable skills (2)
  8. 8. 5. The labour market has already experienced rapid change Source: World Economic Forum, Davos
  9. 9. 6. There is significantly more change to come (1) Source: ONS
  10. 10. 7. There is significantly more change to come (2) Source: World Economic Forum
  11. 11. Developing solutions – International Examples
  12. 12. Developing solutions – Schools in the UK
  13. 13. Contact details Olly Newton Director of Policy and Research onewton@edge.co.uk @UkEdgePolicy
  14. 14. Forecasting future skill needs 2018-28 Mark Magill, Ulster University
  15. 15. NI Skills Barometer 2019 Skills NI business breakfast Mark Magill, Senior Economist, Ulster University Economic Policy Centre
  16. 16. The demand for skills
  17. 17. 17 Net requirement by sector Health and social work requires the largest volume of qualifiers and migrants (net requirement) Source: UUEPC Average annual net requirement from education and migration by sector (1-digit), NI (2018-2028) -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 People employed by households Mining Elect' & gas Water supply & waste Real estate Agriculture Arts & entertainment Other service activities Finance & insurance Transport & storage Public admin & defence Education Construction Information & communication Professional scientific & technical Restaurants and hotels Admin' & support services Manufacturing Wholesale & retail Health & social work Number of people demanded Expansion demand Net replacement demand Net requirement from education and migration refers only to the number of people required to meet demand from education institutions and migration flows.
  18. 18. 18 The demand for skills Over the next decade 33% of job opportunities for education leavers will require at least degree level qualifications Average annual net requirement from education and migration by qualification (NQF), NI (2018-2028) Source: UUEPC 2,710 5,960 5,930 2,910 8,780 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 Below NQF 2 NQF Level 2 NQF Level 3 NQF Level 4-5 NQF Level 6+ Number of people 33% of the net requirement require degree level qualifications Total = 26,300 p.a. Only 10% of the net requirement will require qualifications below NQF level 2
  19. 19. How many people will the skills system supply?
  20. 20. 20 Supply side – school leavers 70,000 pupils are expected to leave school without achieving 5+ GCSEs including English and maths over the next decade Forecast Source: School leavers survey, DE School leavers, achieving versus not achieving 5+ GCSEs including English and maths, 2003/04-2027/28 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 Numberofschoolleaversbyhighestqualification Does not have at least 5 GCSEs A*-C including English and maths At least 5 GCSEs A*-C inc English and maths
  21. 21. 21 Supply side – quantum and qualifications of FE leavers High concentration of NQF level 2 qualifiers from FE Source: DfE Source: DfE Further Education qualifiers by NQF, NI (2017/18) Further Education qualifiers by NQF, NI (2009/10-2027/28) 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 Below NQF level 2 NQF level 2 NQF level 3 NQF level 4-5 NQF level 6+ 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 Below NQF level 2 NQF level 2 NQF level 3 NQF level 4-5 NQF level 6+ Forecast
  22. 22. Is the demand and supply of skills in equilibrium? Demand and supply (Im)balances
  23. 23. 23 Supply gap by NQF level Significant undersupply of NQF level 3-5 qualifications Note: The supply gaps in the above chart have been calculated based on ‘effective supply’. This takes account of migration patterns amongst qualifiers at NI institutions and NI domiciled qualifiers qualifying from GB institutions, in addition to labour force participation. A supply adjustment is then applied to subtract tertiary qualifiers who require additional skills development to effectively fulfil the requirements of tertiary level employment. Source: UUEPC Average annual labour market supply gap by qualification (NQF), NI (2018-2028) 740 0 -2020 -1470 -210 -2,500 -2,000 -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 Less than NQF level 2 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4-5 Level 6+ Average annual supply gap by qualification OversupplyUndersupply Marginal undersupply Significant undersupply Oversupply Balance
  24. 24. 24 Supply gap by degree subject Engineering and technology is the most undersupplied subject grouping Source: HESA, UUEPC Annual average effective supply gap by NQF level 6+ subject (JACS, 1-digit), NI (2018- 2028) -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 Annualaverage(2018-2028) Oversupply Undersupply
  25. 25. Employability and earnings An overview of Labour market Intelligence
  26. 26. 26 Employment rate by qualification The undergraduate employment rate is 20 percentage points above the NI average Masters/PhD Degree Foundation degree/HNC/HND A-level 5+GCSEs A*-C Below5+ GCSEsA*-C Masters/PhD Degree Foundation degree/HNC/HND A-level 5+GCSEs A*-C Below5+ GCSEsA*-C Employment rate (%) by qualification level, NI (4 quarter rolling average to 2018) Source: Labour Force Survey Note: 4 quarter rolling average to Q3 2018 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Below NQF level 2 Level 2 NQF Level 3 NQF Level 4-5 NQF Level 6 NQF Level 7-8 NQF Employmentrate(%) NI average = 71% Masters/PhD Degree Foundation degree/HNC/HND A-level 5+GCSEs A*-C Below5+ GCSEsA*-C
  27. 27. 27 Earnings progression by age and qualification Earnings increase as qualification levels increase Source: Labour Force Survey Note: Figures refer to total employment Gross weekly earnings progression by NQF qualifications, NI (4 quarter rolling average to Q3 2018) £200 £300 £400 £500 £600 £700 £800 £900 £1,000 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 Grossweeklywage(£) Age Below NQF level 2 NQF Level 2 NQF Level 3 NQF Level 4-5 NQF Level 6+
  28. 28. The importance of employability skills and placement experience Demand and supply (Im)balances
  29. 29. 29 Preparedness for work FE college leavers are more prepared for work compared to school leavers of the same age 53% Well/very well prepared 62% 81% 86% There is often a mismatch between perceived work readiness among employers and students. The OECD* reported on a study which found 48% of employers reported young people lacked written communication skills. However, only 6% of young people recognised lacking these skills. Similar mismatches emerged for being self-critical, knowing one’s own strengths and weaknesses, conflict management and knowing when to listen and when to speak. *OECD (2016) Soft Skills for the Future, Available at: https://oecdskillsandwork.wordpress.com/2016/06/17/soft-skills-for-the-future/ Source: Employer Perspectives Survey Preparedness for work of education leavers at different ages, NI, 2016 65% 69% 55% 43% 21% 12% 7% 10% University or HE leavers 17-18 year old FE college leavers 17-18 year old school leavers 16 year old school leavers Poorly prepared Very poorly prepared Well prepared Very well prepared 36% 32% 11% 5% 17%2% 12%2%
  30. 30. Final thoughts
  31. 31. 31  Jobs are created in all sectors of the economy – people retire and need replaced.  Careers information - Provide careers information to school pupils at an early stage to enable informed choices to be made.  Advice to students – young people should always be encouraged to study in an area for which they have a passion. But should understand the supply and demand dynamics of the subject area in which they want to study.  Professional & Technical v Academic – choose the course that is right for the person, not one based on status.  Sector attractiveness – some sectors need to work harder to market their industry to potential recruits.  Students and Employers need internship and work placement programmes – Developing soft skills.  Lifelong learning – Addressing changing skill needs in the economy is essential to shield workers across the skills spectrum from the negative effects of job loss and structural change. Final thoughts
  32. 32. Thank you Formoreinformationpleasesee: https://www.economy-ni.gov.uk/publications/northern-ireland-skills- barometer-2019-update
  33. 33. The 14-19 Review: Update James Hutchinson, Dept of Education
  34. 34. Transition of Young People into Careers (14-19) Project Educating all of our young people to develop their knowledge and skills, enabling them to fulfil their potential and contribute to a prosperous Northern Ireland Transition of Young People into Careers (14-19) Project James Hutchinson Head of Transformation, Department of Education
  35. 35. Transition of Young People into Careers (14-19) Project Transition of Young People into Careers (14-19) Project Background • DE/ DfE Ministerial Agreement in 2017 that the development of a ‘coherent education policy for those in the 14-19 age group’ should be a priority area of work for both Departments. • Innovation Lab event in August 2018 bringing together over 50 stakeholders (including employers and educationalists) to identify the key challenges in the 14-19 education and training landscape. • Transition ofYoung People into Careers (14-19) Project established in January 2019. • Draft 14-19 strategy for consideration by Ministers.
  36. 36. Transition of Young People into Careers (14-19) Project Transition of Young People into Careers (14-19) Project Outputs By March 2020 • Strategic Outline Case; • Draft high level 14-19 Strategy including draft Vision, Guiding Principles, with the current approach and the key features and benefits of a more strategic, joined up approach. By October 2020 • Options paper, including costings, outlining key actions that could be taken to a more strategic joined up approach to 14-19 education and training; • Action plan for implementation; and • Communications Plan.
  37. 37. Transition of Young People into Careers (14-19) Project Vision and Guiding Principles The Project’s draft vision was developed in consultation with stakeholders “Educating all of our young people to develop their knowledge and skills, enabling enabling them to fulfil their potential and contribute to a prosperous Northern Ireland” To guide the development of a draft 14-19 strategy, a critical element of the Project’s work to date has been to agree a set of guiding principles. • Young Person Centred: Put young people at the heart of what we do and deliver a strategy that meets the needs of every individual. • Parity: Ensure all of our young people have access to open and flexible pathways that enable progression and encourage equality of recognition for professional, technical and academic routes. • Collaborative: Work in partnership to deliver improved outcomes for all of our young young people. • Innovative: Use data and evidence to develop sustainable and innovative options to to transform the 14-19 education and training landscape. • Efficient and Effective: Ensure the efficient and effective use of resources throughout the 14-19 education and training landscape.
  38. 38. Transition of Young People into Careers (14-19) Project Project Work Streams In order to progress the development of a draft 14-19 strategy, the Project has identified a number of work streams / key areas of focus based on the original Ministerial correspondence, the issues that arose both through the Innovation Lab in August 2018 and subsequent engagement with stakeholders. • Strategy Development • Funding • Progression and Pathways • Post 16 Education • Curriculum Delivery • Careers The Project is currently finalising the baseline (current position) in respect of the work streams and has begun a period of stakeholder engagement to test assumptions and identify/substantiate key challenges.
  39. 39. Transition of Young People into Careers (14-19) Project Stakeholder Engagement • Engagement with stakeholders has commenced. • Purpose of engagement is to enable the Project to identify challenges and to build an evidence base which will support the development of the draft 14-19 Strategy. • Initial stakeholder engagement will be with the following groups: • Young People • Parents • Schools (including Principals,Area Learning Communities) • Further and Higher Education sectors • Training Organisations and Work Based Learning Providers • Employers
  40. 40. Young people’s careers, choices and future preferences Dr Deirdre Hughes OBE, Chair of Skills Northern Ireland & Helen Bready, City & Guilds 20th November 2019
  41. 41. Respondents came from all 6 counties in Northern Ireland of schools were represented 21% 60% agreed that they knew what career they would like to go into after they finish education This is an increase of 8.55% on the previous year
  42. 42. Most respondents were considering remaining in education FE College Sixth Form University Employment Apprenticeship 29% were not confident about securing their IDEAL JOB when they finished education There is a lot of people entering the field and so a lot of competition I don’t know where to start exactly Uncertain on whether I will be appealing to businesses or if I will be capable to secure a job in my preferred career I may mess up something and have to take another job I feel as if I’m too shy to go into it
  43. 43. 43% of the female respondents selected the “going to university” option compared to 36% of the male respondents. Only 3% of females selected the “apprenticeship” option compared to 15% of males. 65% Female respondents were slightly less confident than their male counterparts. 80% FEMALE MALE Females 57% Males 43% Less than £20,000 in their first year of work More female respondents thought they would earn a lower salary than their male counterparts Females 33% Males 38% £20,000-£30,00 in their first year of work Females 36% Males 20% Less than £30,00 after five years in work
  44. 44. The most popular career choice of respondents were… 9% identified engineering as their top choice followed by 7.5% choosing teaching, and 5% nursing Respondents were not considering careers in social care where many of the future jobs are predicated to be with the growth of an ageing population
  45. 45. Concerns about securing a career when leaving education varied Not enough jobs I will not have enough experience I will not earn enough to pay rent and bills I don't know the right contacts/people I don't have the right soft skills Other 66% of respondents accessed careers information via Google 66% of respondents asked family members for help with career planning 56% of respondents didn’t know how Brexit will have an impact on your future job opportunities while 28% thought it would make it harder to find a job
  46. 46. The young people were fairly realistic in their anticipated earnings expectations for their first year of employment 49.38% £10,000 to £19,999 35.30% £20,000 to £29,999 7.15% £30,000 to £40,000 3.97% More than £40,000 reliability having a positive attitude having good qualifications having good communication skills Being good at numeracy attitude to work aptitude for work general academic ability Students perception of what is important to employers compared to employers requirements 52% of respondents stated a variety and interest as job as the thing that most influenced their ideal job choice, with only 6% stating that they were influenced by being seen as important and prestigious.
  47. 47. To obtain a copy of the full report Visit: www.dmhassociates.org/blog To receive our Newsletter: http://eepurl.com/glOP2f Contact: Dr Deirdre Hughes OBE, Chair Skills NI Email: deirdre.hughes3@btinternet.com Tel: 0044 (0) 7533 545057 Twitter: @deirdretalks
  48. 48. Q&A with Paula Leathem, NIE Networks and Panel Members Headline Sponsor of Skills Northern Ireland
  49. 49. NIE Networks Paula Leathem Senior HR Business Partner
  50. 50. 50 nienetworks.co.uk Why is Skills NI important for NIE Networks to support as headline sponsor? Skills NI 2019
  51. 51. 51 nienetworks.co.ukSkills NI 2019 NIE Networks is the electricity networks business in Northern Ireland Power cuts Meter reading ConnectionsNetwork Maintenance and Development Connecting Renewables
  52. 52. 52 nienetworks.co.uk Interconnector with RoI Interconnector with Scotland 1,200 EMPLOYEES 300 MAJOR SUBSTATIONS 2,200km OF TRANSMISSION NETWORK 47,000km OF DISTRIBUTION NETWORK 877,000 CUSTOMERS Owner of Electricity Networks in Northern Ireland Interconnector with RoI Interconnector with RoI Skills NI 2019
  53. 53. 53 nienetworks.co.uk Why ? • Extremely important young people possess the right skills and competencies required by employers • Current position is far from satisfactory with NIE Networks and many other employers unable to source appropriately skilled individuals to fill substantive roles • There is still a skills mismatch which we all need to continue to address together • Skills NI gives us all the opportunity to work together collaboratively and showcase what Northern Ireland has to offer our young people Skills NI 2019
  54. 54. 54 nienetworks.co.uk Our focus – opportunities Apprentice to Graduate opportunities Apprentice to Graduate Route Engineering Scholarships Graduate Programmes Engineering Scholarships (QUB) Graduate Programmes Apprenticeships Technical and Higher Level Apprenticeships Professional Support Service Roles - HR - Finance - IT - Comms - Procurement Skills NI 2019
  55. 55. 55 nienetworks.co.uk Apprenticeships Why is the apprenticeship route the pathway many more young people should consider? Skills NI 2019
  56. 56. 56 nienetworks.co.uk Advantages of the apprenticeship pathway • Structured training programmes • On the job work experience – practical hands on experience • Choice – this is a growing area with many more apprenticeships being offered • A varied learning experience – academic/vocational qualifications alongside working • Learn while doing and learning from others in the industry • Earn while you learn • Develop soft skills & transferrable skills • Guidance & support to hand • Employment potential An apprenticeship is all encompassing Skills NI 2019
  57. 57. 57 nienetworks.co.uk Technical Apprenticeship Programme Skills NI 2019
  58. 58. 58 nienetworks.co.uk Diverse career pathways for the NIE Networks Apprentice / Graduate Apprentice Specialist Craftsperson or Planner/Wayleaver/Surveyor Senior Authorised Industrial Staff Team Manager Graduate Engineer Manager Director Technician Training Instructor Specialist Engineer Senior Manager Skills NI 2019
  59. 59. 59 nienetworks.co.uk Find further information on our website at www.nienetworks.co.uk/Careers, Follow NIE Networks on our social media channels for more information: Skills NI 2019
  60. 60. Thank you

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