Infectious disease modelling - the math behind Corona
Presentatie bij Stork Sail 2010
1. "... any business enterprise has two - and only these two - basic functions: marketing and innovation" (Drucker 1954)
2. If you want to have a copy of these slides, or if you need additional information, please sent an e-mail to deheij@top-bv.nl or take a look at www.top-bv.nl Hiddenslide, notshownduring the presentation at the symposium
16. Novel trends in juice and dairy Juicesfromconcentrates & heat-pasteurised >50 years Heat pasteurisedsmoothies (e.g. Innocent) 5-10 years Freshjuices and smoothies (6-8 daysshelf-life) 10-15 years Trend: freshnon-heated, all-natural, sustainableand 30-40 daysshelf-life.
17. Status NT – Juices and dairy products UHT / pasteurisation In-line RF/MW/ohmic heating Membranes / filters
34. PEF (PurePulse) technology now availible PEF 1.0 Smallscalepilot-facilities No commercial application No scale-up to industrialthroughput’s Temperatures of product are too high (>>60oC) No qualitybenifit PEF 2.0 800 L/hravailablefor NPD. Low temperaturetreatment (<40 oC) Sufficientshelf-life (>30 days) First linescommisioned Sustainanble (energysufficient) Excellent, premium product quality Price level similar to UHT Applications: juices, smoothies,milk, vegetables
35. Status NT – Juices and dairy products UHT / pasteurisation In-line MW/ohmic heating Membranes / filters Pascalisation (HPP) PurePulse (PEF)
36. Comparison of Pascalisation versus PurePulse Pascalisation (HPP) pilotfacilitiesavailable Up to 3000 Liter / hr Batch process No asepticfillingreq. High investmentcosts Costs per Liter 6-40 cent Applicationsonmarket PurePulse (PEF) 800 L/hravailablefor NPD. Commercial 1500-2000 L / hr In-lineprocess Asepticorhigh-hygenicfilling Low(er) investmentcosts Costscomparablewith UHT Applicationsnot (yet) onmarket
40. Innovation bottlenecks & innovation background Don’t focus on your current technology (only) Cultural fit Chicken and the egg problem Knowledge is useful, entrepreneurial spirit key Crossing the chasm Open innovation Blue ocean strategy
41. From principle to system solutions year 2010 2015 2020 2025 Basic research New principles New principles Applicationoriented research Noveltechnologies Noveltechnologies Noveltechnologies Equipment design New Equipment New Equipment New Equipment Proces development and NPD novelprocess Novelprocess Novelprocess System integration novelsystems novelsystems novelsystems
42. Classical Food Innovations & company culture Product Process Ingredient Context Supplier Portfolio Packaging Claims Current Current New Current Current New New Current Current Current New New Current New New Current Current Current New Current Current New New New Current Current New New New Current New New
43. Increasing complexities of innovation projects Products and packaging Recipe optimisation A new raw-material or ingredients Changing the current packaging design New packaging shape/design/looks Machines and processes. Installation of new equipment Adaptation of the production lines New factories New production technologies (will introduce new products, new markets, ...) Increasing complexity Increasing t.t.m. Increasing budgets
44. Disruptive innovation of technology Technology High quality use performance Disruptive Innovation Low quality use Market development Technology Technology Time Hiddenslide, notshownduring the presentation at the symposium
45. The most challenging innovation objective Development Research Technology Suppliers (equipment and processes) 100 - 1000 kg 1 gr - 1 kg 0.1 - 10 kg 1 - 100 kg Production series Sales of technology (Industry) Labscale system Pilot scale 0-serie Laboratory test 300-3000kE 150-1500kE 15-50kE 40-200kE 100-750kE Marketsurvey Marketsurvey sales(R&D) Sales of Innovative foodproducts (Industry) Product challenge tests Laboratory product tests Food Productions (products and recipes) 1 gr - 1 kg 10 kg - 100 kg Chicken-and-the-egg : who will invest first?
46. From research to innovation € Innovation Development Production Sales Market (perspective) Research Engineering Costs of input (hr) Design Methods & procedures
47. A warning to industry : you want development! R &D: Industry R&D: University & CRO
48. A warning to CRO : Make, Buy or Ally Business Roadmap X no Fully internal top Development plan internally Identify Science & Technology areas Need for Capabilities Potential position in 5 years no high Similar capability existing externally? Alliance yes Strategic fit average high R&D Roadmap Competitive impact Acquire externally low yes Acquire externally low Source : Unilever R&D Hiddenslide, notshownduring the presentation at the symposium
49. Innovation bottlenecks & innovation background Don’t focus on your current technology Cultural fit Chicken and the egg problem Knowledge is useful, entrepreneurial spirit key Crossing the chasm Open innovation Blue ocean strategy
56. Innovation bottlenecks & innovation background Don’t focus on your current technology Cultural fit Chicken and the egg problem Knowledge is useful, entrepreneurial spirit key Crossing the chasm Open innovation Blue ocean strategy -> new ideas & inventions
57.
58. The ‘knowledge tree’ and new combinations Increase knowledge at the front of each disiplines + Neue Kombinationen (of knowledge) to solve problems and to realise new innovations that can not be solved witin the excisting siences When a disipline become more mature the ‘distance’ between experts will become larger The gap between alfa- en bèta-sciences Ref. Groen et.al, Innoveren, 2006
59. Some examples of “neue kombinationen” Fresh(cut) andlongershelf-life (mild preservation) Low CO2andexoticfoods Fresh(cut) andA-brand Multinationals andchilledfoodchains Outsourcing design and R&D andcreatinginternalvalue Foodtechnologyandcreativity (food design) & sales Individualproductsandmassproduction
61. Business Model Innovation Sell products or ingredients Sell equipment Sell research capacity Hiddenslide, notshownduring the presentation at the symposium
62. Business Model Innovation Sell products or ingredients Sell equipment Sell research capacity Innovation as services Open innovation Toll manufacturing Licensing of new concepts Finance and maintain equipment Joint ventures (share risk) Promote the technology (logo) Hiddenslide, notshownduring the presentation at the symposium
63. Business Model Innovation Sell products or ingredients Sell equipment Sell research capacity Innovation as services Open innovation Toll manufacturing Licensing of new concepts Finance and maintain equipment Joint ventures (share risk) Promote the technology (logo) Hiddenslide, notshownduring the presentation at the symposium
