2010 Norgard Amateur Econ Barcelona

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2010 Norgard Amateur Econ Barcelona

  1. 1. SUSTAINABLE DEGROWTH THROUGH MORE AMATEUR ECONOMY Jørgen Stig Nørgård Technical University of Denmark DK 2800 Lyngby, Denmark Second Degrowth Conference, 2010 BARCELONA 26. March to 29 March, 2010 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 1
  2. 2. THE WHOLE ECONOMY 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 2
  3. 3. GENUINE PROGRESS INDICATOR, GPI 40000 USA $ (2000) per Capita 35000 30000 25000 GDP 20000 15000 GPI 10000 5000 0 19503 1 5 7 9 1960 15 17 19197023 25 27 29 1980 35 37 39 41 43YEAR 49200053 55 11 13 21 31 33 1990 45 47 51 Talberth, J., Cobb, C. and Slattery, N.; The Genuine Progress Indicator 2006 . w w w .rprogress.org. 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 3
  4. 4. GENUINE PROGRESS INDICATOR, GPI 40000 USA $ (2000) per Capita 35000 30000 25000 GDP CLIMATE 20000 SAVINGS ? 15000 GPI 10000 5000 0 19503 1 5 7 9 1960 15 17 19 1970 25 27 29 1980 35 37 39199043YEAR 49200053 55 11 13 21 23 31 33 41 45 47 51 Based on: Talberth, J., Cobb, C. and Slattery, N.; The Genuine Progress Indicator 2006 . 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 4
  5. 5. INCOME AND HAPPINESS (USA) 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 5
  6. 6. A. EINSTEIN: “Not everything that can be counted counts, and, not everything that counts can be counted” 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 6
  7. 7. HAPPINESS VS GDP/CAP, COUNTRIES NEF, 2009: The (Un)happy Planet Index 2.0. www.happyplanetindex.org 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 7
  8. 8. HAPPY LIFE YEARS vs ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT NEF, 2009: The (Un)happy Planet Index 2.0. www.happyplanetindex.org 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 8
  9. 9. HAPPINESS (ultimate benefits) WHOLE ECONOMY (UTILITARIAN ECONOMY, WELFARE ECONOMY, C ECONOMIC OR ? ACTIVITIES NATURE EXPLOIT. (ultimate cost) 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 9
  10. 10. HAPPY PLANET INDEX, HPI Satisfaction Whole Economy’s Efficiency = ------------------------------ Nature’s Exploitation can be approximated with: Life Satisfaction x Life Expectancy HPI = ----------------------------------------------------- Ecological Footprint NEF, 2009: The (Un)happy Planet Index 2.0. www.happyplanetindex.org 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 10
  11. 11. HAPPY PLANET INDEX, HPI Life Satisfaction x Life Expectancy HPI = --------------------------------------------------- Ecological Footprint = 76.1 for Costa Rica # 1 in the world = 65.7 for Cuba # 7 = 58.5 for Bhutan # 17 = 57.1 for China # 20 = 43.2 for Spain # 76 = 35.5 for Denmark # 105 = 34.5 for Russia # 108 = 30.7 for USA # 114 = 16.6 for Zimbabwe # 143 NEF, 2009: The (Un)happy Planet Index 2.0. www.happyplanetindex.org 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 11
  12. 12. THE ROLE OF WORK 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 12
  13. 13. HISTORY OF WORK Church campaign succeeded slowly. Holidays reduced dramatically. During 1800s: Annual work-time peaked at around 4000 hours. Late 1800s till late 1900s: Dramatic decline in annual work-time to 1700 in N.Europe and around 2000 hours in Japan and USA. 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 13
  14. 14. HARD WORK IS A PROTESTANT VIRTUE © Claus Deleuran, 1982 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 14
  15. 15. HARD WORK IS A PROTESTANT VIRTUE IMPLEMENTED 500 YEARS AGO TO SAVE THE ENVIRONMENT ? NOW POSING A THREAT TO THE ENVIRONMENT ! © Claus Deleuran, 1982 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 15
  16. 16. LIMITS TO GROWTH Meadows DH, Meadows DL, Randers J and Behrens III WW. (1972) The Limits to Growth, Universe Book, New York 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 16
  17. 17. SIMPLE SD- MODEL FOR ENERGY CONSERVATION , 1974 Nørgård, J.S.(1974): ”Technological and Social Measures to Conserve Energy”. Report #DSD 26, Thayer School of Engineering, Dartmouth College, N.H. USA Labor Efficiency in Computer Run for Sustainable Development 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 17
  18. 18. LABOUR INPUT FACTORS • Population, POP • Labor Force Fraction, LFF • Working Time, WT • Employment Rate, ER • Labor Productivity, PROD Labor Input to Production, LIP, is then: LIP = POP LFF WT ER PROD 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 18
  19. 19. WORK SHARING IN HISTORY 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 19
  20. 20. WORK SHARING IN THE USA During 1800s : Labor Unions organized a quest for shorter working time. 1920s : Working hours continue to decline and work sharing was seen as the way to avoid unemployment and to increase wages and wellbeing. 1930s : The next step was a 30 hours work week, and it almost passed congress, but……….. 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 20
  21. 21. NEW DEAL DRAMA President F. D. Roosevelt in 1933: Proposal to solve unemployment by reducing work week from 40 to 30 hours. Almost passed Congress, but by pressure from industry 30 hours work week was stopped few days short of passing. The road not taken, not YET Instead, 40 hours week have been fixed ever since and efforts have been concentrated on work creation rather than work sharing. 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 21
  22. 22. THE BIRTH OF CONSUMERISM The decision in 1933 in USA to abandon Work Sharing as the way to avoid unemployment and instead aim for Work Creation can be considered a turning point, the birth of todays Consumerism 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 22
  23. 23. THE ROLE OF GDP The newly in 1930s developed Gross Domestic Product, GDP, seems to have played a significant role. Before then the progress was not well defined, although the reduced work time was one progress indicator. With GDP, one clear indicator was established, although economists warned about using it to measure progress. 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 23
  24. 24. DEGROWTH WITHOUT TEARS 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 24
  25. 25. WHOLE ECONOMY HAPPINESS CAN BE DIVIDED INTO: (ultimate benefits) PROFESSIONAL AMATEUR “GRATIS” ECONOMY ECONOMY GDP AMATEUR ECON. (DRIVEN BY LOVE, AFFECTION, ETC) and PROFES. ECONOMY NATURE EXPLOIT. (DRIVEN BY MONEY) (ultimate cost) 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 25
  26. 26. AMATEUR ECONOMY AND HAPPINESS Maybe lower productivity in output per hour, BUT: Higher productivity in satisfaction 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 26
  27. 27. HAPPINESS (ultimate benefits) MONEY ECONOMY HAS TAKEN OVER MORE AND MORE, …for good and for bad. “GRATIS” e,g. PROFESSIONAL AMATEUR cooking, ECONOMY GDP ECONOMY childcare, old people care, health care, family parties, gardening, entertainment NATURE EXPLOIT. etc….. (ultimate cost) 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 27
  28. 28. MULTI-TASK AMATEUR ECONOMY Copyright: Claus Deleuran 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 28
  29. 29. MULTI-TASK AMATEUR ECONOMY He is growing strawberries He is caring for the child He is caring for the old She is entertaining grandad She is studying nature He is caring for the child He is feeding the birds Copyrights: Claus Deleuran 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 29
  30. 30. MULTI-TASK AMATEUR ECONOMY He is growing strawberries He is caring for the child He is caring for the old She is entertaining granddad She is studying nature He is caring for the child He is feeding the birds All driven by love… Copyrights: Claus Deleuran missing “good”GDP ! 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 30
  31. 31. HAPPINESS DEGROWTH BY (ultimate benefits) REVERSING MONEY ECONOMY ? “GRATIS” PROFESSIONAL TAKE BACK YOUR TIME ECONOMY AMATEUR GDP ECONOMY REGAIN CONTROL MORE SECURITY MORE SATISFACTION NATURE EXPLOIT. (ultimate cost) etc….. 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 31
  32. 32. TOWARDS A RICHER LIFE “The more we extend the sphere of activities about which we can say ‘This is not for sale’ or ‘I can’t put a price on this’, the richer are our individual and social lives” André Gorz 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 32
  33. 33. LESS WORK OR MORE INCOME 1 PREFERENCE FOR LESS WORK OR MORE INCOME 100 % More 90 pay, Same 80 work 70 Don't know ? 60 50 Same pay, 40 Less work 30 20 10 0 1964 1975 1987 2002 Year 2007 1 2 3 4 5 Nørgård, J.S. (2008): ‘Avoiding Rebound through a Steady State Economy’ chapt. 10 in book Energy Efficiency and Sustainable Consumption.. The Rebound Effect. Palgrave Macmllan UK,. 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 33
  34. 34. LESS WORK OR MORE INCOME 2 PREFERENCE FOR LESS WORK OR MORE INCOME 100 % More 90 pay, Same 80 work 70 Don't know 60 50 Same ? pay, 40 Less work 30 20 10 0 1964 1975 1987 2002 Year 2007 1 2 3 4 5 Nørgård, J.S. (2008): ‘Avoiding Rebound through a Steady State Economy’ chapt. 10 in book Energy Efficiency and Sustainable Consumption.. The Rebound Effect. Palgrave Macmllan UK,. 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 34
  35. 35. WHY DON’T PEOPLE DO IT ? • They usually do not have a free choice • Most of them don’t bother to go into the hard work in unions • The surveys are not always clear whether the question is asking for a collective reduction. • Etc. 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 35
  36. 36. THE BEST ARGUMENT FOR WORKING LESS The present public quest for turning productivity gains into shorter work time, as well as the similar trend in 1930s USA, is NOT based on concerns for environment. The physical limits to growth is just one extra argument for working less, ---- and a very serious one. 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 36
  37. 37. DEGROWTH POLICIES ON WORK 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 37
  38. 38. GENERAL STRATEGIES • Increase equity in work and income by tax, etc. • Re-educate economist • Teach children sustainable ‘amateur’ activities • • Worksharing can be a leverage for degrowth because the lower consumption is immediately rewarded with more freedom and joy. 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 38
  39. 39. 4 REASONS FOR MORE EQUITY 1) MORAL REASON: In a limited world ethics call for more sharing. 2) POLITICAL REASON: Reducing social unrest and international conflicts. 3) ECONOMIC REASON: More equal distribution of wealth increase total satisfaction. 4) ENVIRONMENTAL REASON: Equality tends to promote saturation. 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 39
  40. 40. RE-EDUCATE ECONOMIST -Learning to use freedom of speech to voice how meaningless GDP is as a measure of prosperity. -Learning to be more interdiciplinary -Learning how to ‘land’ the economy safely at a steady state 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 40
  41. 41. RE-EDUCATE ECONOMIST -Learning to use freedom of speech to voice how meaningless GDP is as a measure of prosperity. -Learning to be more interdiciplinary -Learning how to ‘land’ the economy safely at a steady state - not like (other) terrorists, who did not care to learn how to land the airplanes. 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 41
  42. 42. TRANSITION WITHOUT TEARS OBVIOUSLY, A TRANSITION FROM AN UN- ECONOMIC GROWTH TO AN ECONOMIC DEGROWTH NEED NOT BE A PAINFUL PROCESS - EXCEPT FOR SOME CONVENTIONAL GROWTH ECONOMISTS. (and it is probably cheaper to provide emergency help to the depressed economists than to a whole depressed economy !) 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 42
  43. 43. A Limerick Sigh TECHNIQUE, PROFIT, ETHIC TECHNIQUE, PROFIT, ETHIC TECHNIQUE, PROFIT, ETHIC In the affluent OECDe’den, Life could be like in Garden of Eden. But with ‘Apple’s of Eve, we in numbers believe, so the joy and the ethics is eaten. Jorgen S. Norgard, 2008 28. March 2010, Sust. Degrowth w Amateur Econ. , Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark Degrowth Conference 2010, Barcelona DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 43

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