Climate Change and the Economic Crisis:
  Is prosperity possible without growth?

           Dr. Peter A. Victor

        ...
Can we have full employment, no poverty, fiscal balance,
reduced GHG emissions without relying on economic growth?




   ...
You bet!




           LowGrow
            Canada
‘Business as usual’

                                   GDP per Capita

                     GHG Emissions

         Pover...
A low/no growth scenario
                    How?
                    • Macro demand and supply stabilized
               ...
Generating a Canadian degrowth scenario

1. Maximum sustainable global GDP:
   – GDP with global ecological footprint = bi...
Global biocapacity




Global ecological footprint



Carbon footprint
Global biocapacity




Global ecological footprint




Carbon footprint
                              Carbon footprint
   ...
[2004]


[1995]


[1976]


[1963]
[1976]
A Canadian degrowth scenario


             GDP per Capita

                              Unemployment

                  ...
The scenarios compared: growth drivers
The scenarios compared: growth drivers
Conclusions
1. Simulations suggest that ‘prosperity’ does not require
   GDP growth

2. Depends on level of ‘sustainable’ ...
Climate Change and the Economic Crisis; Is prosperity possible without growth?
Climate Change and the Economic Crisis; Is prosperity possible without growth?
Climate Change and the Economic Crisis; Is prosperity possible without growth?
Climate Change and the Economic Crisis; Is prosperity possible without growth?
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Climate Change and the Economic Crisis; Is prosperity possible without growth?

2,429 views

Published on

  • Be the first to comment

Climate Change and the Economic Crisis; Is prosperity possible without growth?

  1. 1. Climate Change and the Economic Crisis: Is prosperity possible without growth? Dr. Peter A. Victor 26 March 2010
  2. 2. Can we have full employment, no poverty, fiscal balance, reduced GHG emissions without relying on economic growth? LowGrow Canada
  3. 3. You bet! LowGrow Canada
  4. 4. ‘Business as usual’ GDP per Capita GHG Emissions Poverty Debt to GDP Ratio Unemployment
  5. 5. A low/no growth scenario How? • Macro demand and supply stabilized (stable population and labour force) • Carbon price • Shorter work year • More generous anti-poverty programs GDP per Capita GHG Emissions Unemployment Poverty Debt to GDP Ratio
  6. 6. Generating a Canadian degrowth scenario 1. Maximum sustainable global GDP: – GDP with global ecological footprint = biocapacity – Larger if carbon footprint reduced 2. Maximum sustainable average GDP/capita: – Allow for increase in population 3. Canadian sustainable GDP/capita: – Some multiple of average GDP/capita 4. LowGrow simulation for Canada
  7. 7. Global biocapacity Global ecological footprint Carbon footprint
  8. 8. Global biocapacity Global ecological footprint Carbon footprint Carbon footprint for ecological footprint = biocapacity
  9. 9. [2004] [1995] [1976] [1963]
  10. 10. [1976]
  11. 11. A Canadian degrowth scenario GDP per Capita Unemployment Poverty GHG Emissions Debt to GDP Ratio
  12. 12. The scenarios compared: growth drivers
  13. 13. The scenarios compared: growth drivers
  14. 14. Conclusions 1. Simulations suggest that ‘prosperity’ does not require GDP growth 2. Depends on level of ‘sustainable’ income which in part depends on response to climate crisis 3. Changes in the economic system require clarification

×