Iscram Summer School 2009 From Mashups To Modelling (Tom De Groeve)


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Large catastrophes often trigger international humanitarian response. This is a particular context in which many independent actors, including governmental agencies (e.g. search and rescue teams), non-governmental organizations (NGO’s such as Doctors Without Borders), corporations (e.g. Google or Microsoft) and international organizations (including the United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs) work together to provide first response and subsequent relief and reconstruction assistance. In the absence of a clear command and control structure, situational awareness needs to be acquired by each actor independently. Needless to say that this community is eager to develop and use technology and systems to acquire and share information, and that collaboration and information sharing is generally considered as mutually benefitting.
In the early onset of disasters, information is sparse. Traditionally, there are three main sources of information: scientific monitoring systems (e.g. seismological or meteorological networks), official information (briefings by the local emergency management agency) and media reports. Information management for each source requires different technological solutions, respectively focused on modelling, web portals for information sharing, and linguistic processing. However, more recently a fourth source of information is becoming available through Web 2.0: information from citizens, sometimes labelled crowd-sourcing. In case of a disaster, local (and remote) citizens can and do provide information (e.g. eyewitness reports) or analysis (e.g. compiling reports in an information feed). However, this fourth source is not widely used yet by emergency managers because the reliability of the information is not well understood and hard to assess in a time-critical environment.

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Iscram Summer School 2009 From Mashups To Modelling (Tom De Groeve)

  1. 1. From mash-ups to modelling: <br />technology for international crisis situation awareness<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009<br />Tom De Groeve –<br />Joint Research Centre of the European Commission<br />27 August 2009<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  2. 2. ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />European Commission<br />European Commission<br />Directorates General (per policy area)<br />Humanitarian Aid (DG ECHO)<br />External Relations (DG RELEX)<br />Environment and Civil Protection (DG ENV)<br />Research (DG JRC)<br />Research policy and funding (DG RTD)<br />Development aid (DG DEV, DG AIDCO)<br />…<br />Directorate General Joint Research Center<br />7 institutes (per research area)<br />2500 staff<br />Institute for the Protection and the Security of the Citizen<br />IT, Engineering, Statistics, Geomatics<br />Global Security and Crisis Management<br />
  3. 3. ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />European Commission<br />European Commission is a large player in international disaster management<br />Policy and action for disasters<br />Humanitarian aid office (ECHO): <br />largest humanitarian aid donor in the world<br />Civil Protection Mechanism<br />Coordination of European first response<br />Monitoring and Information Center (MIC)<br />External Relations: <br />Prevention, mitigation, reconstruction programmes<br />Development:<br />Reduction of vulnerability and improvement of resilience<br />Humanitarian aid<br />Civil Protection Mechanism<br />Reconstruction<br />
  4. 4. European Commission<br />Role of the European Commission<br />Principle of subsidiarity<br />Need for specific mandate at European level<br />Intermediary between multilateral organisations and EU Member States<br />European institutions<br />European Council <br />Heads of state<br />European Parliament<br />European Court of justice<br />European agencies<br />European Centre for Disease Control<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />Multilateral org’s<br />European Commission<br />EU Member states<br />
  5. 5. European Commission<br />Natural disasters<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />Affected <br />government<br />Assessment<br />UNDAC<br />Response<br />OCHA<br />Response org<br />(e.g. NGO, IFRC)<br />Funding<br />Coordination<br />ECHO (funding)<br />EC Monitoring and<br />Information Centre<br />EU Member state<br />Search & Rescue<br />
  6. 6. European Commission<br />Health<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />WHO<br />Data aggregation<br />ECDC<br />Coordination<br />European Commission<br />DG SANCO<br />Surveillance<br />Policy making<br />EU Member state<br />
  7. 7. Lecture overview<br />International situation rooms<br />Information management roles, capabilities and needs<br />Detection, analysis, briefing, action<br />Information management tools<br />Mash-ups versus Spatial Data Infrastructure<br />Access, analyze and share information<br />Information modelling<br />Make information work for your business processes<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  8. 8. Part 1<br />International Situation Rooms<br />Roles, capabilities and needs<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  9. 9. International situation rooms<br />European Institutions<br />ECHO: humanitarian aid<br />Humanitarian aid funding<br />Civil Protection Mechanism (MIC)<br />International search and rescue<br />Cross-border European disasters<br />Multi-lateral assistance<br />External Relations (RELEX)<br />Community level foreign affairs<br />Reconstruction after war or disaster<br />European Council<br />Political foreign affairs response<br />Health (SANCO)<br />Epidemic control measures<br />Border control (FRONTEX)<br />Border monitoring<br />NATO<br />African Union<br />World Bank<br />United Nations<br />Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs<br />Sudden onset response coordination<br />UNDAC: disaster assessment<br />World Food Program<br />Early warning for food crises<br />Response to food crises<br />Peacekeeping Operations<br />Pre or post conflict<br />World Health Organisation<br />Pandemics<br />International Non Governmental Org’s<br />International Federation of Red Cross<br />National (non) governmental org’s<br />Urban Search and Rescue:<br />Italian Civil Protection<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  10. 10. International situation rooms<br />Roles<br />Primarily an advisory role, rather than an operational role<br />Information processing for situational awareness and political response. <br />Wide Scope<br />Geographically: continental or global<br />Thematically (any kind of crisis)<br />Tasks<br />(Support) rapid decisions for sudden onset disasters or crises<br />Regular briefs on slow onset or continuous crises<br />Staff<br />Generalists or specialists in response<br />Experience in decision making, less in information management<br />Small number of staff, rarely working in 24h shifts<br />Information<br />No access to intelligence information<br />Sometimes access to private network of experts (delegations, regional offices, roster of experts)<br />Operation<br />Not much routine because of the variety of crisis situations<br />No or little standard operating procedures<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  11. 11. ExampleGlobal Disaster Alert and Coordination Systemwww. .org<br />an example of a disaster alert and impact system for international humanitarian assistance<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  12. 12. International humanitarian aid<br />A complex system with many stakeholders<br />No “Command and Control Centre”<br />Help is based on scarce information on the disaster<br />What, when, how, who?<br />Decisions must be made very quickly (within 72h)<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />Coordination: UN OCHA<br />Humanitarian Aid Flow<br />Donors<br />ECHO, etc.<br />Charity<br />UN<br />WFP,HCR…<br />Int. NGOs<br />IFRC, MsF<br />Local<br />Government<br />Local <br />NGOs<br />Victims<br />
  13. 13. Inefficiencies in humanitarian response<br />Monitoring disasters<br />24/7 monitoring capacity is expensive<br />Many heterogeneous sources of natural hazard monitoring  hard to keep up to date<br />Response can be delayed because<br />Not alerted / monitored<br />Affected government does not appeal<br />Not sure if others respond<br />Size and type of response must be needs driven (Madrid Declaration 1995)<br />Size of disaster can be under/overestimated<br />Information on needs can be incomplete, vague, lacking<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />Is it a disaster??<br />How many people??<br />What are the needs??<br />Who will respond??<br />What is offered??<br />What is needed now??<br />What is the damage??<br />time<br />
  14. 14. Visit to NERSS, 29-30 July 2009<br />12 May 2008, 6:41 UTC <br />14 minutes after earthquake<br />4500 emails, 2700 SMSs and 100 faxes sent to first responders globally<br />Department of Earthquake Disaster Emergency Management<br />Red earthquake alert: “high likelihood of a disaster, with need for international assistance”<br />Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System<br />
  15. 15. Visit to NERSS, 29-30 July 2009<br />M 6.7<br />M 6.0<br />“Is an event of humanitarian concern?”<br />The objective is to distinguish between <br />large earthquake in unpopulated or resilient regions<br />smaller earthquake in highly populated and vulnerable regions<br />
  16. 16. Visit to NERSS, 29-30 July 2009<br />
  17. 17. Visit to NERSS, 29-30 July 2009<br />
  18. 18. Visit to NERSS, 29-30 July 2009<br />Cyclone category IV<br />7 million people with high winds<br />1.8 million in storm surge zone<br />Cyclone category I<br />No people affected<br />
  19. 19. Visit to NERSS, 29-30 July 2009<br />
  20. 20. Visit to NERSS, 29-30 July 2009<br />Prior to GDACS: monitoring through bookmarking<br />
  21. 21. Visit to NERSS, 29-30 July 2009<br />With GDACS: One-stop-shop<br />Information standards; added-value systems; System of systems<br />
  22. 22. Source of situational information<br />Example: <br />international humanitarian sudden-onset disaster<br />OCHA system<br />Where can we find information?<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  23. 23. Sources of situational information<br />Early warning and alert systems<br />Timely knowledge about the occurrence of a natural hazard<br />Geophysical, meteorological measurement systems<br />Automated consequence analysis<br />Modelling the likely impact<br />International and social media <br />Rich source, very timely<br />but not always true and complete<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  24. 24. Sources of situational information<br />Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN-OCHA): <br />Mandate to coordinate humanitarian response<br />Sends disaster assessment and coordination (UNDAC) teams, search and rescue teams (through the INSARAG network) <br />Sets up an On Site Operations Coordination Centre (OSOCC), humanitarian information centres (HIC) <br />Disseminates all information through ReliefWeb<br />Local government, with its local emergency management authority (LEMA): <br />Main source for official information on the scale of the disaster<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  25. 25. Sources of situational information<br />Alert systems<br />Consequence Analysis Tools<br />Media<br />UN-OCHA <br />Local Emergency Management Agency<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br /> Reliability <br />Timeliness<br />
  26. 26. Information needs versus sources<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br /> Early warning or alert<br />Automated consequence analysis<br />Media<br />OCHA<br />LEMA<br />Situation<br />Source contains information for need<br />X<br />
  27. 27. Information needs versus sources<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />Need clusters<br />Source contains information for need<br />X<br />
  28. 28. Scope and mandate<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />Health<br />Response<br />Political<br />IFRC<br />Civil Protection<br />UNDPKO<br />Humanitarian<br />NATO<br />WFP<br />Action<br />WHO<br />SANCO<br />RELEX<br />Policy<br />Funding<br />ECHO<br />European Council<br />Sudden onset<br />Slow onset<br />Time scale<br />
  29. 29. Scope and mandate<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />Health<br />Political<br />NATO<br />WFP<br />Humanitarian<br />20<br />IFRC<br />UNDPKO<br />Staff<br />10<br />European Council<br />RELEX<br />Civil Protection<br />5<br />ECHO<br />SANCO<br />National<br />Global<br />Regional<br />Time scale<br />
  30. 30. Responsibilities<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />Monitoring<br />Declare crisis<br />Briefing on state of the world<br />Briefing on crisis (strategic)<br />Gather info for action (tactical)<br />Action<br />Decision<br />
  31. 31. Responsibilities<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  32. 32. Capabilities<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  33. 33. Monitoring<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  34. 34. Briefing on State of the World<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  35. 35. Declare disaster<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  36. 36. Briefing on disaster (strategic)<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  37. 37. Gather info for action (tactical)<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  38. 38. Roles and capabilities in local response<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />Offensive<br />Pre-emptive<br />Exploitative<br />9<br />8<br />3<br />2<br />7<br />1<br />Before<br />After<br />4<br />6<br />10<br />5<br />8<br />11<br />9<br />Protective<br />Corrective<br />Defensive<br />From Bharosa, Janssen (2009)<br />
  39. 39. International situation rooms<br />Responsibilities<br />Capabilities<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />Monitoring<br />Detect<br />Evaluate relevance<br />Declare crisis<br />Briefing on state of the world<br />Map<br />Get data<br />Analyze<br />Brief<br />Briefing on crisis (strategic)<br />Gather info for action (tactical)<br />Communicate<br />Share<br />Collaborate<br />Action<br />Decision<br />
  40. 40. Part 2<br />Geospatial information management tools<br />Mash-up versus Spatial Data Infrastructure<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  41. 41. Mash-up<br />Mash-up<br />Combination of different web services<br />Combination of data and functionality<br />API: application programming interface<br />Mostly map based<br />GeoRSS, KML: geotagged data<br />JavaScript<br />Examples of APIs<br />Google maps<br />Google geocoding<br />Bing<br />Panoramio: photos<br />…<br />Create your own<br /><br /><br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  42. 42. Examples of mash-ups<br /> <br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  43. 43. Examples of mash-ups<br />Reuters AlertNet<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  44. 44. Examples of mash-ups<br />Hungarian Emergency and Disaster Information Service<br />Pandemic map<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  45. 45. Examples of mash-ups<br />Hungarian Emergency and Disaster Information Service<br />Pandemic map<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  46. 46. Examples of mash-ups<br />Ithaca<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  47. 47. Examples of data sources<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  48. 48. Examples of data sources<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  49. 49. Spatial Data Infrastructure<br />Professional GIS system<br />Database technology to store and process geospatial data<br />Handles topology, projections, attributes, metadata, long transactions, conflict resolution<br />Visualization powerful on desktop<br />Functionality can exposed as web services<br />Good for<br />Data creation<br />Data editing and maintenance<br />Data analysis<br />Map creation<br />Not so good for<br />Web-based interactive maps<br />Handling non-GIS data formats (e.g. KML, GeoRSS)<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  50. 50. Spatial Data Infrastructure<br />GIS = Geographic information system (or science)<br />Mapping<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  51. 51. GIS<br />Handling, storing geospatial data<br />Coordinate in 2D or 3D space<br /> special database techniques<br />Spatial Reference System  projection<br />Imagery  large volumes of data<br />Most (&gt;80%) data has geospatial component<br />Manipulating, querying geospatial data<br />Nearby point, line, polygon<br />“In” area, “intersecting” with line<br />Raster statistics  sum of population in pixels<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  52. 52. Visit to NERSS, 29-30 July 2009<br />Rubble(pink) <br />Standing buildings(red)<br />Built up structures (red)<br />Automatic damage assessment using textural analysis<br />
  53. 53. GIS systems: network enabled<br />Web mapping<br />Web querying<br />Web processing<br />Routing<br />Nearest objects<br />GIS Model<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />My system<br />
  54. 54. ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  55. 55. SDI based systems<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  56. 56. What’s needed in the situation room?<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  57. 57. Data<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />Mash-up<br />Own base map<br />Own data<br />Traditional SDI<br />Other base maps<br />Other data<br />Mash-up<br />Unusual<br />
  58. 58. Co-visualize information<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  59. 59. Best available map<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  60. 60. What’s in my area of interest<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  61. 61. What’s in my area of interest<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  62. 62. Functionality<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />SDI<br />Mash-up<br />Data creation<br />Data analysis<br />Data visualization<br />International situation room<br />
  63. 63. Model output; support RSS/KML<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  64. 64. What’s happening here?<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  65. 65. Advanced mash-up<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  66. 66. Mash-up or SDI?<br />Without mash-up?<br />Dynamic information streams cannot be used<br />Web 2.0 data not useful<br />Missing out on lots of new developments, APIs and tools<br />Rigid desktop visualization<br />Without SDI?<br />No advanced modelling<br />Own data can not be stored or displayed<br />Dependent on commercial base maps<br />Can’t create or digitize data<br />Dependent on network availability and information service providers<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  67. 67. Part 3<br />Information modelling<br />Mash-up versus modelling<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  68. 68. Modelling<br />Case studies<br />Impact modelling: GDACS<br />Media mining: EMM<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  69. 69. Modelling<br />Combination of information to obtain more useful information<br />Make use of available information to estimate/calculate useful information<br />Mathematical, physical, statistical<br />Quantitative or qualitative<br />Examples<br />Likelihood for need for international humanitarian intervention after a natural disaster<br />Tsunami wave height at coast given an earthquake<br />Breaking news<br />Filter and cluster information<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009, Tilburg<br />
  70. 70. Visit to NERSS, 29-30 July 2009<br />GDACS automatic and manual event analysis<br />Alert<br />Coordination<br />Volcano<br />Monitoring<br />Networks<br />Disaster<br />Level II Alert<br />Disaster<br />Level I Alert<br />Earthquake<br />Observation<br />Networks<br />Automatic Evaluation of scale of disaster <br />Manual Evaluation of scale of disaster <br />Event Alerts<br />Start of coordi-nation<br />Flood<br />Watch<br />Networks<br />Trop. Cyclone<br />Observation<br />Networks<br />Geographical,<br />Socio-economic, population data<br />Eye witness and information from Local<br />Government, IFRC, ECHO, NGO<br />Models<br />
  71. 71. Visit to NERSS, 29-30 July 2009<br />Disaster alert: systematic impact analysis<br />Risk analysis<br />Risk = Hazard x Population x Vulnerability<br />Hazard = 0 then Risk = 0<br />Population = 0 then Risk = 0<br />Vulnerability = 0 then Risk = 0<br />Impact analysis is similar<br />Impact = Event magnitude x Population in affected area x Vulnerability<br />Volcano<br />Monitoring<br />Networks<br />Earthquake<br />Observation<br />Networks<br />Flood<br />Watch<br />Networks<br />Trop. Cyclone<br />Observation<br />Networks<br />tsunami<br />earthquake<br />Socio-economic Indicators (e.g. UNDP, World Bank)<br />Landscan or GPW<br />
  72. 72. Earthquake mechanism<br />Plate tectonics<br />Relative motion of plates<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009<br />Terminology<br />Hypocentre and epicentre (on surface)<br />Magnitude: logarithmic measure of energy<br />Intensity: energy on surface at given distance from epicentre<br />
  73. 73. Earthquake mechanism<br />Energy propagates<br />P and S waves<br />Attenuation functions<br />Depends on local geology<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009<br />Energy shakes buildings<br />Earthquake engineering<br />Vulnerability curves<br />
  74. 74. Earthquake occurrence<br />Earthquakes, each year<br />500 000 detectable<br />100 000 can be felt<br />100 cause damage<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009<br />
  75. 75. Earthquake effects<br />Shaking and ground rupture<br />damage to buildings or other rigid structures. <br />Site or local amplification (Mexico City effect): <br />transfer of the seismic motion from hard deep soils to soft superficial soils<br />Landslides and avalanches<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009<br />Soil liquefaction <br />water-saturated granular material temporally loses their strength and transforms from a solid to a liquid<br />buildings or bridges tilt or sink into the liquefied deposits<br />Tsunamis<br />Fires <br />break of the electrical power or gas lines<br />
  76. 76. Earthquake data<br />Occurrence<br />Near real time (&lt;15 min)<br />Location and magnitude, with uncertainty<br />USGS NEIC (US)<br />EMSC (Europe)<br />GEOFON (Germany)<br />JMA (Japan)<br />…<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2009<br />Propagation<br />Shakemaps (USGS)<br />ESRC (Russia)<br />Missing datasets<br />Building stock<br />Location, number, type of buildings<br />Localized attenuation functions<br />
  77. 77. GDACS earthquake alert system<br />Scraping of earthquake parameters<br />Agreements with seismological institutes<br />US National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC)<br />European Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC)<br />Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA)<br />Indonesia, Germany, France, Italy…<br />Calculation of impact<br />Population in 100km<br />Landscan dataset<br />Cities<br />Critical infrastructure nearby<br />Nuclear plants<br />Hydrodams database not complete (e.g. in China)<br />Airports<br />Secondary effects<br />Landslides<br />Tsunamis<br />Logistics<br />Airport capacity nearby<br />Visit to NERSS, 29-30 July 2009<br />
  78. 78. Earthquake alert system<br />Reporting<br />Multi-lingual reports: English, French, Spanish, Italian, Turkish, Chinese<br />Full, dynamic web report<br />Short static email report<br />Fax report (PDF)<br />SMS message<br />(Voice messages)<br />Creation fully automatic, based on templates<br />Alerting<br />Professional SMS provider<br />200 SMS/second<br />Global coverage<br />Professional Fax, Voice providers<br />Over 10000 users<br />Alert logic<br />Green, Orange, Red<br />Regional filter<br />No cancellation; only new alert if alert level increases<br />Visit to NERSS, 29-30 July 2009<br />
  79. 79. Visit to NERSS, 29-30 July 2009<br />The JRC Tsunami Early Warning System<br /> After the 2004 Tsunami in Banda Aceh, Indonesia, JRC decided to include Tsunami models for a quick evaluation of the possible impact of a Tsunami as a consequence of an earthquake<br />
  80. 80. Visit to NERSS, 29-30 July 2009<br />The JRC Tsunami Early Warning System<br />Timeline:<br />December 2004: no Tsunami model, only earthquake alerts<br />March 2005: rough estimation of Tsunami probability, Travel time model <br />October 2006: <br />SWAN-JRC Model for height distribution and locations identification<br />International Tsunami Workshop, Ispra 5-6 October<br />March 2007: full integration of the Tsunami model in GDACS<br />August 2007: start of the grid calculations for over 30000 tsunami scenarios<br />March 2008: integration of matrix calculations in GDACS<br />JRC Models:<br />Travel Time model – March 2005<br />SWAN-JRC Model – October 2006<br />Tsunami Grid system – March 2008<br />
  81. 81. Visit to NERSS, 29-30 July 2009<br />Model characteristics<br />fast running<br />reliable unbreakable <br />automatically activated on request (web service)<br />integrated in the GDACS<br />Based on the integration of the shallow water propagation speed<br />Similar to the x-ray technique<br />Provides the time in each point, starting from a source<br />Run-time: 20 seconds<br />-60<br />20<br />8<br />JRC Travel Time model<br />
  82. 82. Visit to NERSS, 29-30 July 2009<br />SWAN-JRC Tsunami Model<br />Automatic calculation of wave generation and propagation to the coast<br />Triggered by GDACS <br />Automatic fault generation<br />Direction, length, height<br />Based on initial earthquake parameters (lat/lon/magnitude)<br />Wave propagation <br />SWAN code (C. Mader) rewritten in C language for faster processing<br />Post processing:<br />List of affected cities (with wave height)<br />The code does not calculate the run-up to the coast<br />much finer bathymetry is necessary<br />not relevant for early warning<br />Run-time: 20 minutes<br />Indonesia Magnitude 8.4 <br />12 September 2007 11:10 UTC<br />Major locations identified:<br />Kandan, 3.3 m<br />Belowa, 2.7 m<br />Pandangaget, 1.9 m<br />
  83. 83. Visit to NERSS, 29-30 July 2009<br />Tsunami Grid<br />Historical epicenter<br />Bounding box<br />(Ring n. 0)<br />Ring n. 1<br />Ring n. 2<br />For early warning, 20 minutes is too long.<br />Pre-calculation of scenarios<br />10143 tsunami sources<br />grid around historical Tsunami events (from the NOAA Tsunami sources database) <br />10x10 grid of 0.5 degrees around each data point<br />13 calculations per point <br />magnitude from 6.5 to 9.5 every 0.25<br />131856 calculations<br />2 TB space<br />
  84. 84. Visit to NERSS, 29-30 July 2009<br />Tsunami Grid<br />10184 data points in a grid of 0.5 degrees<br />
  85. 85. Integration in GDACS<br />GDACS tsunami alert<br />Logic: <br />earthquake in sea, <br />magnitude &gt; 6.5<br />Look up tsunami scenario, and associated maximum wave height<br />If wave height &gt; 3: Red alert<br />If wave height &gt; 1.5: Orange<br />Otherwise: Green<br />Take maximum of earthquake and tsunami alert<br />Reduction of false tsunami alerts by 90%<br />Tsunami Analysis Tool<br />Combine<br />Real-time sea surface buoy data<br />Tsunami scenarios<br />Earthquake monitoring<br />New tsunami calculations<br />Allows to confirm tsunamis, based on buoy data<br />Visit to NERSS, 29-30 July 2009<br />
  86. 86. GDACS<br />Impact calculation allows to filter important events from unimportant ones<br />Uses well-chosen information feeds, from sensor networks<br />Provides information feed of high (or known) quality<br />Visit to NERSS, 29-30 July 2009<br />
  87. 87. But don’t underestimate crowd-sourcing<br />USGS uses information collected from local people through the web to adjust their shaking models<br />Visit to NERSS, 29-30 July 2009<br />
  88. 88. But don’t underestimate crowd-sourcing<br />EMSC does the same<br />And uses hit peaks as a confirmation of a strong earthquake<br />Visit to NERSS, 29-30 July 2009<br />
  89. 89. But don’t underestimate crowd-sourcing<br />Network of hard disk sensors<br />Network of iPhone or Andoid phones<br />Visit to NERSS, 29-30 July 2009<br />
  90. 90. Visit to NERSS, 29-30 July 2009<br />
  91. 91. Europe Media Monitor<br />What is the News Brief?<br />Summary of news stories from around the world, automatically classified according to thousands of criteria. It is updated every 10 minutes, 24 hours a day.<br />&quot;Top Stories&quot; automatically detects the stories that are the most reported in each language at the moment.<br />Search: previous news stories (over 20 million articles are indexed).<br />How does it work?<br />Generated automatically by software algorithms without any human intervention. <br />alert definition consists of a list of multilingual keywords<br />What info is extracted?<br />Clustering<br />Geotagging, place names<br />Named entities: people, organizations, titles, functions<br />Quotes<br />Related clusters in other languages; in time<br />Visit to NERSS, 29-30 July 2009<br />
  92. 92. Event detection<br />Visit to NERSS, 29-30 July 2009<br />
  93. 93. What is MedISys?<br />MedISys (Medical Information System) is a real-time news alert system for medical and health-related topics. <br />MedISys: <br />processes over 20000 articles per day from over 4000 sites of approximately 1600 news sources (news and medical sites) in 45 languages, <br />dynamically updates statistics on all news topics every 10 minutes, <br />categorises articles in pre-defined medical topics in 25 different languages, <br />How does it work?<br />MedISys turns news into a signal. Over time stories come into the news then gradually disappear. Some topics appear regularly whereas other topics occur infrequently. MedISys keeps track of these topics comparing current news events with those in the past in order to quickly identify breaking news. <br />What does MedISys offer over other news providers?<br />The system uses dynamic statistical modelling techniques to: <br />suppress news noise, i.e. stories that are regularly in the news,<br />enhance stories with a poor signal, and<br />identify individual events on a temporal and locational basis.<br />Visit to NERSS, 29-30 July 2009<br />
  94. 94. Visit to NERSS, 29-30 July 2009<br />
  95. 95. Visit to NERSS, 29-30 July 2009<br />
  96. 96. Mash-up versus modelling<br />Visit to NERSS, 29-30 July 2009<br />Modelling<br />Mash-up<br />Quality<br />Trust<br />Customized<br />Quantity<br />Flexibility<br />General<br />International situation room<br />