2011 ISCRAM Summer School Tom De Groeve


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Presentation used for the lecture at the 4th ISCRAM Summer School in Tilburg, the Netherlands.

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2011 ISCRAM Summer School Tom De Groeve

  1. 1. Developing disaster alert and impact systemsLecture at the ISCRAM Summer School19 August 2011<br />Tom De Groeve<br />Joint Research Centre of the European Commission<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  2. 2. Red earthquake alert<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  3. 3. ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  4. 4. ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  5. 5. ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  6. 6. Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS)<br />GDACS: system for international disaster response community<br />Information gap in the initial response phase<br />Monitoring<br />Impact / risk analysis<br />Information integration<br />15000 active users of 212 countries<br />Secretariat: OCHA<br />Open access, standards<br />OGC, RSS<br />GLIDE number<br />JRC’s role: alert and monitoring system<br />Earthquakes and tsunamis<br />13 scientific partners<br />Tsunami modelling<br />Impact modelling<br />Tropical cyclones<br />2 scientific partners<br />Wind modelling<br />Impact modelling<br />Floods<br />16 scientific partners<br />Detection<br />Impact modelling<br />Extra-tropical windstorms<br />Volcanoes<br />Expert meeting on Early Warning Systems, 28 April 2011<br />
  7. 7. Japan tsunami<br />20 minutes: Orange tsunami alert (2.1m waves, M7.9)<br />42 minutes: Red tsunami alert (8.6m waves, M8.8)<br />Alerts sent to 15000 users<br />Only global system sending alerts based on tsunami wave heights<br />Later, JRC released several manual reports on the risk in Japan and the Pacific<br />Expert meeting on Early Warning Systems, 28 April 2011<br />
  8. 8. ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  9. 9. ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  10. 10. ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  11. 11. Lecture overview<br />Developing disaster alert and impact systems<br />Introduction<br />Humanitarian assistance, response and GDACS<br />Natural hazards<br />Basic physics<br />Consequence analysis<br />GIS data and models<br />Community Remote Sensing<br />Use of Social media<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  12. 12. Joint Research Centre of the European Commission<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />RELEX<br />ECHO<br />ENV<br />JRC<br />...<br />7 Institutes<br />IRMM – Geel, Belgium<br />- Institute for Reference Materials and Measurements<br />IE – Petten, The Netherlands<br />- Institute for Energy<br />ITU – Karlsruhe, Germany <br />- Institute for Transuranium elements<br />IPSC - IHCP - IES – Ispra, Italy<br /> - Institute for the Protection and the Security of the Citizen<br /> - Institute for Health and Consumer Protection<br /> - Institute for Environment and Sustainability <br />IPTS – Seville, Spain<br /><ul><li>Institute for Prospective Technological Studies</li></li></ul><li>Global Security and Crisis Management<br />Global Security and Crisis Management Unit<br />Preparedness<br />Response<br />Recovery<br />Prevention and risk reduction<br />Technology<br />Text mining (open source intelligence)<br />Image mining (remote sensing)<br />Data mining (statistics)<br />Physical / epidemic modelling<br />System integration (GIS, ICT)<br />Humanitarian & Disaster Response Technologies, Cape Town, 17 Sept 2010<br />Response<br />Recovery<br /> Prevention Risk reduction<br />Preparedness<br />
  13. 13. International Emergency Management<br />Partner organisations<br />European Union<br />United Nations<br />World Bank<br />African Union<br />Social Networking Technologies for Emergency Management, October 27, 2010, Washington<br />International Humanitarian and Emergency Response<br />
  14. 14. Global Disaster Alert and Coordination Systemfor more effective and efficient humanitarian responsewww. .org<br />an example of a disaster alert and impact system for international humanitarian assistance<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  15. 15. International humanitarian aid<br />A complex system with many stakeholders<br />No “Command and Control Centre”<br />Help is based on scarce information on the disaster<br />What, when, how, who?<br />Decisions must be made very quickly (within 72h)<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Coordination: UN OCHA<br />Humanitarian Aid Flow<br />Donors<br />ECHO, etc.<br />Charity<br />UN<br />WFP,HCR…<br />Int. NGOs<br />IFRC, MsF<br />Local<br />Government<br />Local <br />NGOs<br />Victims<br />
  16. 16. ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Evacuation<br />Search and rescue<br />
  17. 17. ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Refugee management<br />Refugee camp, Lukole, Tanzania<br />
  18. 18. Inefficiencies in humanitarian response<br />Monitoring disasters<br />24/7 monitoring capacity is expensive<br />Many heterogeneous sources of natural hazard monitoring  hard to keep up to date<br />Response can be delayed because<br />Not alerted / monitored<br />Affected government does not appeal<br />Not sure if others respond<br />Size and type of response must be needs driven (Madrid Declaration 1995)<br />Size of disaster can be under/overestimated<br />Information on needs can be incomplete, vague, lacking<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Is it a disaster??<br />How many people??<br />What are the needs??<br />Who will respond??<br />What is offered??<br />What is needed now??<br />What is the damage??<br />time<br />
  19. 19. Needs-driven response: what are the needs?<br />OCHA Cluster approach*<br />Camp Coordination and Camp Management<br />Logistics<br />Early Recovery<br />Emergency Telecommunications<br />Emergency Shelter<br />Health<br />Nutrition<br />Protection<br />Water, Sanitation and Hygiene<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Information needs for responders<br />Relief needs for affected population<br />(with information need, e.g. <br />affected population)<br />* OCHA, 2006. Appeal for improving Humanitarian Response Capacity: Cluster 2006<br />
  20. 20. Sources of situational information<br />Early warning and alert systems<br />Timely knowledge about the occurrence of a natural hazard<br />Geophysical, meteorological measurement systems<br />Automated consequence analysis<br />Modelling the likely impact<br />Social media<br />Timely source, not always reliable<br />Very hard to turn into useful information<br />International media <br />Rich source, very timely<br />but not always true and complete<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  21. 21. Sources of situational information<br />Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN-OCHA): <br />Mandate to coordinate humanitarian response<br />Sends disaster assessment and coordination (UNDAC) teams, search and rescue teams (through the INSARAG network) <br />Sets up an On Site Operations Coordination Centre (OSOCC), humanitarian information centres (HIC) <br />Disseminates all information through ReliefWeb<br />Local government, with its local emergency management authority (LEMA): <br />Main source for official information on the scale of the disaster<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  22. 22. Sources of situational information<br />Alert systems<br />CAT<br />Social Media<br />Media<br />UN-OCHA <br />LEMA<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Reliability <br />Timeliness<br />
  23. 23. Information needs versus sources<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Early warning or alert<br />Automated consequence analysis<br />Media<br />OCHA<br />LEMA<br />Situation<br />Source contains information for need<br />X<br />
  24. 24. Information needs versus sources<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Need clusters<br />Source contains information for need<br />X<br />
  25. 25. Role of information systems<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Early warning or alert systems<br />Automated consequence analysis <br />GIS based analysis, real-time or based on scenarios<br />Media<br />Automated intelligent monitoring<br />OSOCC / LEMA<br />Web based “Virtual” OSOCC<br />Web Portal technology<br />Addressed (partially) by GDACS<br />
  26. 26. Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System a EU and UN initiative<br />European Union<br />Humanitarian aid 2004<br />Member states: € 867 million<br />European Commission € 570m<br />53% of official dev. Aid (ODA)<br />Joint Research Centre<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs<br />
  27. 27. Sharing a global system for alerting and coordination?<br />Global<br />Disaster<br />Alert<br />Coordination<br />System<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br /><ul><li>International humanitarian aid community</li></ul>Is interested in disasters anywhere on Earth<br />Intervenes if local authorities cannot cope<br />Is not a homogeneous community: big players and small players <br /> not all have similar information gathering capacity<br />Is not coordinated on all levels: funding, deployment, reporting…<br />Does not collect information systematically<br />
  28. 28. Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System<br />GDACS provides a systematic approach for<br />Predictable information of<br />Predictable quality at<br />Predictable time<br />Through<br />A network of computer systems and<br />Internet technology; Computer modeling<br />Mainly task of JRC<br />A network of disaster managers<br />24/7 duty; connected to authorities<br />Mainly task of OCHA<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Alert<br />Model results<br />Media <br />analysis<br />Field Missions (Search & Rescue)<br />Remote Sensing damage analysis<br />time<br />
  29. 29. Objective: “What are the latest disasters?”<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  30. 30. Objective: “Is an event of humanitarian concern?”<br />The objective is to distinguish between <br />large earthquake in unpopulated or resilient regions<br />smaller earthquake in highly populated and vulnerable regions<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />M 6.7<br />M 6.0<br />
  31. 31. GDACS automatic and manual event analysis<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Automatic information collection<br />Alert<br />Coordination<br />Tsunami<br />Warning<br />Networks<br />Disaster<br />Level II Alert<br />Disaster<br />Level I Alert<br />Earthquake<br />Observation<br />Networks<br />Automatic Evaluation of scale of disaster <br />Manual Evaluation of scale of disaster <br />Start of coordi-nation<br />Flood<br />Watch<br />Networks<br />Event Alerts<br />Trop. Cyclone<br />Observation<br />Networks<br />Geographical,<br />Socio-economic, population data<br />Eye witness and Field information<br />Gov, IFRC, ECHO, NGO<br />
  32. 32. Disaster alert: systematic impact analysis<br />Event magnitude and affected area<br />Collected from specialized sources through Internet technology<br />Modelled if required<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br /><ul><li>People and vulnerability
  33. 33. Critical infrastructure</li></ul>Nuclear plants<br />near New Orleans<br />
  34. 34. Disaster alert<br />Automatic monitoring:<br />Earthquake, Tsunami, Cyclone, Floods, Volcanoes<br />Automatic <br />GIS consequence analysis<br />Classification: <br />Alerting system<br />SMS, Fax, Email<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  35. 35. Critical infrastructure: e.g. tropical cyclones<br />Bottleneck: global databases<br />Now: Roads, airports, ports, nuclear plants, hydrodams<br />Near future: industrial plants (to some extent)<br />Collaboration with Joint UNEP/OCHA team on environmental risk<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  36. 36. Consequence analysis: e.g. earthquakes<br />Where?<br />Circle of 100km<br />Affected people?<br />Sum up pixel values inside affected area<br />Weight with indicators for vulnerability and resilience<br />Damage? Secondary effects?<br />List “critical infrastructure” in affected area<br />Fast alerting is very important for earthquakes<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  37. 37. Consequence analysis: e.g. tsunamis<br />When?<br />Together with earthquakes<br />Tsunami propagation model<br />Where?<br />Coastal areas, low elevation, cities near coast<br />Affected people?<br />Sum up pixel values inside affected area: timing<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  38. 38. GDACS: timeline<br />Near real-time<br />Event scraping: delay of ~20 min<br />Consequence analysis: max 5 min<br />Alerting (email, fax, SMS): 1500 SMS / 3 min<br />Web site: maps, analysis, Google Earth <br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Started upon event and ongoing<br />Model runs (e.g. tsunami wave height model)<br />Media monitoring<br />Map creation / collection <br />Situation and field information sharing<br />Virtual OSOCC portal<br />Virtual OSOCC<br />Alert & CA<br />Information scraping<br />1h<br />1day<br />1week<br />
  39. 39. GDACS Media monitoringEuropean Media Monitor<br />Automatic collection of news from over 1000 on-line media sources<br />Fully Multilingual: باكستان تعلن وقفا أحاديا لإطلاق النار في كشمير<br />Query interface: <br />“Show me news with the words ‘earthquake’ and ‘Iran’ from after the earthquake date”<br />GDACS, for each disaster<br />automatically creates a query <br />keeps this updated for 3 weeks<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  40. 40. GDACS disaster mappingUNOSAT and JRC<br />Maps from many organisations are catalogued automatically<br />GDACS users can request a new map (UNOSAT service)<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  41. 41. GDACS Virtual OSOCCCoordination and information sharing<br />Chat room: “what’s happening?”, “who’s going?”<br />Structured information<br />Teams<br />Team status (monitoring, deployed, mobilising…)<br />UNDAC reports<br />Relief items (in kind, pledges)<br />Content moderation<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Started around 2000 and is now part of GDACS<br />~12000 professional users<br />Closed site with registration<br />Trusted information<br />Trust in members<br />Routinely used by many LEMA’s and Donor countries<br />GDACS antenna offices in Tunesia, Fiji…<br />
  42. 42. ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  43. 43. ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  44. 44. Evaluation of GDACS<br />Overall<br />More effective or efficient process?<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Outcomes<br />Usage statistics<br />Number of partnerships<br />Components<br />Alert component: rate of missed and false alerts<br />
  45. 45. Usage<br />Around 15000 users<br />Mostly from <br />international aid organisations<br />Donors / governments<br />OCHA<br />INGOs<br />Red Cross / Red Crescent<br />NGO’s<br />Some from<br />Local emergency management agencies / citizens<br />Media<br />Insurance & commercial companies<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Travel, <br />general <br />interest<br />commercial<br />
  46. 46. Usage<br />Users by geographical area<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Middle East<br />Oceania<br />Latin America<br />1%<br />3%<br />2%<br />United Nations<br />European <br />North America<br />10%<br />Parliament<br />10%<br />Africa<br />0%<br />1%<br />Asia<br />13%<br />5%<br />Other<br />37%<br />Unknown<br />7%<br />European <br />Europe<br />Commission<br />32%<br />16%<br />
  47. 47. Alert component<br />Missed events<br />Missed aid $<br />EQ: 0.02%<br />TC: 50%<br />VO: 0%<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  48. 48. Partnerships<br />Early warning and alert<br />USGS, EMSC, WAPMERR, GEOFON…<br />Hawaii University, Pacific Disaster Centre<br />Dartmouth Flood Observatory<br />WFP (HEWSWeb)<br />PTWC<br />Global Volcanism Program<br />SWVRC/IntlVRC<br />IFA/SOLAR<br />Tropical Storm Risk<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Alert communication<br />UMTS (Norway)<br />Information<br />Maps: JRC, UNOSAT<br />Joint UNEP/OCHA PPER: environmental impact reports<br />USGS Shakemaps<br />And many for the Virtual OSOCC…<br />
  49. 49. Conclusions<br />For needs-based response, situational and other information is critical, in particular in the first 72h<br />Various information systems can address large parts of the information needs in the early onset of a disaster<br />GDACS was a UN/EU initiative to build such a system and is running successfully<br />Standards based<br />Community based (professionals, including LEMAs)<br />http://www.gdacs.org<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  50. 50. Introduction to Natural hazards and disasters<br />Earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanoes, tropical cyclones, floods<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  51. 51. Existing hazardmonitoring systems<br />Expert meeting on Early Warning Systems, 28 April 2011<br />
  52. 52. JRC’s role in GDACS Bridging gaps<br />Expert meeting on Early Warning Systems, 28 April 2011<br />
  53. 53. Natural disasters cannot be avoided<br />Over 800 disasters affect near 300 million people yearly and kill hundreds of thousands<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Source: EM-DAT Emergency Disasters Data Base, www.em-dat.net<br />
  54. 54. More people are affected by disasters each year<br />But they are not distributed equally<br />Poor countries are affected more<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Source: EM-DAT Emergency Disasters Data Base, www.em-dat.net<br />
  55. 55. Earthquakes<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  56. 56. Earthquake mechanism<br />Plate tectonics<br />Relative motion of plates<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Terminology<br />Hypocentre and epicentre (on surface)<br />Magnitude: logarithmic measure of energy<br />Intensity: energy on surface at given distance from epicentre<br />
  57. 57. Earthquake mechanism<br />Energy propagates<br />P and S waves<br />Attenuation functions<br />Depends on local geology<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Energy shakes buildings<br />Earthquake engineering<br />Vulnerability curves<br />
  58. 58. Earthquake occurrence<br />Earthquakes, each year<br />500 000 detectable<br />100 000 can be felt<br />100 cause damage<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  59. 59. Earthquake effects<br />Shaking and ground rupture<br />damage to buildings or other rigid structures. <br />Site or local amplification (Mexico City effect): <br />transfer of the seismic motion from hard deep soils to soft superficial soils<br />Landslides and avalanches<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Soil liquefaction <br />water-saturated granular material temporally loses their strength and transforms from a solid to a liquid<br />buildings or bridges tilt or sink into the liquefied deposits<br />Tsunamis<br />Fires <br />break of the electrical power or gas lines<br />
  60. 60. Earthquake data<br />Occurrence<br />Near real time (<15 min)<br />Location and magnitude, with uncertainty<br />USGS NEIC (US)<br />EMSC (Europe)<br />GEOFON (Germany)<br />JMA (Japan)<br />…<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Propagation<br />Shakemaps (USGS)<br />ESRC (Russia)<br />Missing datasets<br />Building stock<br />Location, number, type of buildings<br />Localized attenuation functions<br />
  61. 61. Tropical cyclones<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  62. 62. Tropical cyclone mechanism<br />Mechanism<br />energy released by the condensation of moisture in rising air causes a positive feedback loop over warm ocean waters<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Movement<br />Steering winds; Coriolis effect<br />Horizontal wind speed profile<br />
  63. 63. Tropical cyclone occurrence<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />1985-2005<br />
  64. 64. Tropical cyclone effects<br />High winds<br />people, mobile homes, unsound substandard structures<br />Storm surge<br />Abnormal rise in the water level caused by the wind and pressure forces <br />90% of death<br />Heavy rain<br />Thunderstorm activity  intense rainfall<br />Rivers and streams flood, roads become blocked, and landslides can occur<br />Tornado activity<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  65. 65. Tropical cyclone data<br />World Meteorological Organisation<br />Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres<br />Official advisories<br />severe.worldweather.org/rsmcs.html<br />Compilations at global level<br />Pacific Disaster Center (Hawaii)<br />MetHaz of the University of Central Florida (based on commercial data product)<br />Tropical Storm Risk (http://tropicalstormrisk.com)<br />forecasting the risk<br />modelled wind fields and rainfall.<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Modelling data<br />Wind field equation<br />location<br />central pressure  lacking<br />Storm surge<br />Detailed coastal DEM  lacking<br />Rainfall<br />Available from radar observations (e.g. TRMM)<br />
  66. 66. Volcanic eruptions<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  67. 67. Volcanic eruptions: mechanism<br />A volcano is an opening in the Earth's surface<br />12: lava flow<br />15: ash cloud<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Plate tectonics<br />
  68. 68. Types of volcanoes<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  69. 69. Volcanic eruptions: occurrence<br />How many active volcanoes known? <br />Erupting now: perhaps 20 <br />Each year: 50-70 <br />Each decade: about 160 <br />Historical eruptions: about 550 <br />Known Holocene eruptions (last 10,000 years): about 1300 <br />Known (and possible) Holocene eruptions: about 1500 <br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  70. 70. Volcanic eruptions: effects<br />The different types of ("primary") eruptive events are:<br />Pyroclastic explosions<br />Hot ash releases<br />Lava flows<br />Gas emissions<br />Glowing avalanches (gas and ash releases)<br />Secondary events are<br />Melting ice, snow and rain accompanying eruptions are likely to provoke floods and hot mudflows (or lahars); <br />Hot ash releases can start fires. <br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Factors of Vulnerability<br />Topographic factors; <br />The proximity of a population to the volcano; <br />Structures with roof not resistant to ashes accumulations; <br />The lack of warning system and evacuation plans<br />
  71. 71. Volcanic eruptions: data<br />Global Volcanism Program<br />Smithsonian Institute<br />Weekly bulletins<br />Local volcano observatories<br />Volcano Ash Advisories (VAAC)<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Modelling<br />Local data needed<br />Volcano types<br />Eruption types: <br />http://volcano.und.edu/vwdocs/vwlessons/kinds/kinds.html<br />
  72. 72. Tsunamis<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  73. 73. Tsunamis mechanism<br />Tsunamis are giant sea waves that are produced by submarine earthquake or slope collapse into the seabed.<br />Tsunamis can travel thousands of kilometers at 500-800km/h with very little loss of energy. <br />Successive crests can arrive at intervals of every 10 to 45 minutes and wreak destruction for several hours.<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  74. 74. Tsunami mechanism<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Uplift of continental crust<br />Length of rupture: increases with higher magnitude<br />Initial height: proportional to length of rupture<br />Shallow water<br />
  75. 75. Tsunami wave propagation (SWAN code)<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Swan code by C. Mader used as basis<br />Mass conservation equation<br />Momentum conservation equations<br />Unknowns are H, Ux, Uy<br />The programme solves the equations in explicit form with a fixed time step, which depends on the size assumed for the bathymetry<br />
  76. 76. Tsunami occurrence and effect<br />Continental coasts<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Shallow water <br />Slows down wave<br />Amplifies wave height<br />http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/seg/hazard/tsu.shtml<br />
  77. 77. Tsunami data<br />Real time<br />UNESCO/IOC<br />Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC, US)<br />JMA (Japan)<br />Relies on seismological data<br />Historical<br />National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA, US<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Modelling<br />Bathymetry<br />Rough: ok<br />Detailed: not<br />Run up: DEM needed<br />
  78. 78. Floods<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  79. 79. Flood mechanism<br />Principle<br />Hydrology / hydraulics<br />Modelling is data intensive<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  80. 80. Flood mechanism<br />Types<br />Flash floods<br />River floods (mostly seasonal)<br />Coastal floods, associated with tropical cyclones, tsunami, storm surges<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  81. 81. Flood occurrence<br />Floods cause major human suffering<br />78% of population affected by disasters<br />46% of disasters are floods<br />International aid for floods<br />1/3 of all humanitarian aid<br />93% of flood deaths in Asia<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Figures from EM-DAT, OCHA, ECHO<br />
  82. 82. Flood effects<br />Direct effects: <br />Drowning<br />Injuries during evacuation<br />Indirect effects:<br />Agriculture: loss of crops<br />Destruction of transport and energy infrastructure<br />Contamination by toxic chemicals<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Factors of Vulnerabilities<br />Location of settlements on floodplains<br />Non resistant buildings and foundations<br />Lack of warning system and awareness of flooding hazard <br />Land with little capacity of absorbing rain<br />erosion due to deforestation<br />concrete covering<br />
  83. 83. Flood data<br />Real time<br />Hydrographs<br />Met Offices<br />Media<br />Dartmouth Flood Observatory<br />Satellite based…<br />Historical<br />Dartmouth Flood Observatory<br />Disaster databases<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Modelling<br />Detailed DEM<br />Real time weather data<br />
  84. 84. Conclusions<br />Mechanisms of natural hazards are well known<br />Occurrence of natural hazards<br />Geographical patterns<br />Random occurrence<br />Data on natural hazards<br />Some data about occurrence and location of disaster is available in near-real time<br />Not all data needed for modelling hazard is available<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Effects of natural hazards on society depend on<br />Hazard<br />Affected area<br />Vulnerabilities<br />Consequence analysis must take these into account<br />Limited by global data availability<br />
  85. 85. Consequence analysis<br />Near real time GIS for disaster management<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  86. 86. GIS<br />GIS = Geographic information system (or science)<br />Mapping<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  87. 87. GIS<br />Handling, storing geospatial data<br />Coordinate in 2D or 3D space<br /> special database techniques<br />Spatial Reference System  projection<br />Imagery  large volumes of data<br />Most (>80%) data has geospatial component<br />Manipulating, querying geospatial data<br />Nearby point, line, polygon<br />“In” area, “intersecting” with line<br />Raster statistics  sum of population in pixels<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  88. 88. GIS systems: network enabled<br />Web mapping<br />Web querying<br />Web processing<br />Routing<br />Nearest objects<br />GIS Model<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />My system<br />
  89. 89. GIS for disaster management<br />Disaster management<br />Typical questions in early onset<br />Where? What is affected? Who is affected? How many people?<br />How do we get there? What response capacity is nearby?<br />Get me a map. Get me a BIG map!<br />I need information for my briefing: SMALL maps!<br />Detailed geospatial information is required<br />Street level base data in Europe; less for Global<br />Application specific data: transport, energy, health, vulnerability<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Generating stations<br />Substations<br />Power lines<br />
  90. 90. Global datasets<br />Population<br />Raster, 1km<br />Digital Elevation<br />Raster, 90m<br />Bathymetry<br />Raster, 2 arcmin (~3.6km)<br />Topography<br />Vector, 1km<br />VMAP0, Global Discovery…<br />Roads, railways, rivers, populated places, airports, mountains…<br />Land cover, land use<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Satellite coverage<br />Meteorological<br />Clouds<br />Rainfall, winds…<br />Not available<br />Hospitals, medical infrastructure<br />Energy infrastructure, industrial plants<br />Critical roads, bridges<br />Detailed DEM (for flood, tsunami modelling)<br />Building stock, urban areas<br />
  91. 91. Why automating tasks?<br />Disasters happen always at night, in the weekend or on Christmas<br />It is always the same work<br />In early stages all crises have similar requirements<br />Computers can pre-calculate things or make things according to a template<br />And they work faster than humans<br />Automated things have limitations<br />Cannot handle unforeseen cases<br />Can break down over the weekend<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  92. 92. Earthquakes<br />Where?<br />Circle where ground motion longer than 1 second<br />Circles with varying radius<br />Affected people?<br />Sum up pixel values inside affected area<br />Weight with indicators for vulnerability and resilience<br />Damage? Secondary effects?<br />List “critical infrastructure” in affected area<br />Fast alerting is very important for earthquakes<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  93. 93. Tsunamis<br />When?<br />Together with earthquakes<br />Tsunami propagation model<br />Tsunami wave height model<br />Where?<br />Coastal areas, low elevation<br />Affected people?<br />Sum up pixel values inside affected area, with timing<br />Damage? Secondary effects?<br />List “critical infrastructure” in affected area<br />Animation<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  94. 94. Tsunamis<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Play<br />
  95. 95. Tsunamis<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Seismic event<br />Event notification<br />EWS detection<br />1’<br />Quick analysis and reports (propagation time)<br />Max 30’<br />First analysis (height and population affected) <br />Max 1h<br />More detailed analysis (run-up calculations) are not of our interest at the moment<br />0<br />+30<br />Time (min)<br />
  96. 96. Tropical cyclones<br />Where?<br />Track, including forecast<br />Buffers for Saffir-Simpson categories (wind speed)<br />Affected people?<br />Sum up pixel values inside affected area: past, future<br />Damage? Secondary effects?<br />List “critical infrastructure” in affected area<br />Early warning is possible<br />Animation<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  97. 97. Tropical cyclones<br />Impact<br />List critical infrastructure<br />Population<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Risk (probabilities)<br />
  98. 98. Volcanoes<br />When?<br />Significant change in eruption status<br />Where? Affected people?<br />Can be pre-calculated<br />Real time ash cloud information<br />Damage? Secondary effects?<br />List “critical infrastructure” in affected area<br />Future<br />Imagery…<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  99. 99. Volcanoes<br />Ash plumes<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  100. 100. Conclusions<br />GIS can store and manipulate information useful for disaster management<br />GIS is a good basis to implement models to calculate or infer information for disaster management<br />Standards are essential for distributed systems<br />OGC, GLIDE, CAP, RSS<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Real time models depend on<br />Real time input data<br />Accuracy, timeliness<br />Available background data<br />Precision, Fit-for-use<br />Processing time<br />Distributed systems<br />Operational systems<br />Redundancy, resilience<br />
  101. 101. System design<br />Operational alerting systems<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  102. 102. Automating GIS<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Web site<br />Alerter<br />Queuer<br />Scraper<br />Reporter<br />Models<br />DMA<br />Input<br />Output<br />GIS Analysis<br />
  103. 103. In reality more complex<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />SMS <br />Server<br />Email <br />Server<br />Fax <br />Server<br />SMS <br />Server<br />Asgard<br />Lite<br />GDACS<br />Tsunami<br />SWAN<br />Servers<br />DMA: Spatial Data Infrastructure<br />Monitor<br />Develop<br />ment <br />
  104. 104. Alerting<br />Technology<br />SMS<br />Individual messages (rate 10/sec)<br />Cell broadcast<br />Email<br />Fax<br />RSS, web<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Authority to Authority<br />Reliable<br />Training assumed; content can be difficult<br />Authority to Population<br />Reliable<br />Culture bound<br />Trust, authority, source<br />
  105. 105. Operational system<br />Reliable: <br />stable servers, not for development<br />Monitoring<br />When is something down<br />Action plan to recover<br />Redundancy: <br />copy of system and automatic switch<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  106. 106. Developing disaster alert and impact systems<br />Conclusions<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />
  107. 107. Conclusions<br />Disaster alert and impact systems are a combination of<br />Hazard science<br />Geophysics<br />Meteorology<br />Modelling<br />GIS models<br />Physical models<br />Mathematical models<br />GIS<br />Spatial data infrastructure<br />Data collection<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />Disaster management<br />Requirements analysis<br />Reporting<br />Communication technology<br />Alerting<br />Web systems<br />Operational systems<br />Monitoring and recovery<br />Maintenance<br />
  108. 108. Some links<br />http://www.gdacs.org<br />GDACS website <br />http://www.gdacs.org/flooddetection<br />Global Flood Detection System<br />http://dma.jrc.it/map<br />Mapping tool<br />ISCRAM Summer School 2011<br />