Ofcom Future Wireless World + Spectrum - Dean Bubley

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Presentation from Feb 8th Ofcom event defining the "Future Wireless World" and spectrum policy in the era of IoT, 5G & AI. Covers standardisation, redefining the nature of a "service" & the need for spectrum-sharing to support Industrial IoT and other use-cases.

A full discussion & explanation is at http://disruptivewireless.blogspot.com/2017/02/my-presentation-at-ofcom-what-year-2030.html

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Ofcom Future Wireless World + Spectrum - Dean Bubley

  1. 1. Futurism: Resetting Assumptions for 2030 Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis Ofcom Spectrum Forum, 8th February 2017 dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean Image Credits: Pixabay.com / Dean Bubley unless stated
  2. 2. Dean Bubley & Disruptive Analysis  Tech/telecom analyst & strategic consulting since 1991  Futurism, Forecasting, Anti-Forecasting, Policy  Cross-silo, contrarian, independent  Often provocative. Sometimes obscure. Occasionally wrong. Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017 Network Tech, Policy & Business Models Communications Apps & Services Telecom-Futurism
  3. 3. Consumer & social trends forward to 2030…. Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017
  4. 4. Futurist narratives applied to networks assume too much IoT = connected everything! Robots, cities, self-driving cars, homes, wearables, factories, AR/VR, drones Data traffic exponential. Single standard, more capacity, managed QoS, NFV & ultra-low latency Faster/denser connectivity services, inclusion, more subscribers, some wholesale relationships & sharing Govt wins big license fees, efficient market from peers competing, economy benefits from IoT-led productivity Therefore, lots more mobile spectrum needed, in conveniently-large slices, primarily for national MNOs Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017 Assumptions Assumptions
  5. 5. Changing our assumptions & semantics for 2030 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017 Services Capabilities Competition Substitution Harmonisation Diversity Managed Intelligent Ubiquitous Tailored
  6. 6. What is a service provider? Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017 MNO MVNO TowerCo WISP Roaming Car-SP Private MNO PS-Org SliceNO eSIM SP Fixed telco Cable MSO Biz. MSP AltNet Fix-Wireless Wholesale FibreCo SD-WAN Sec-aaS Community Mobile Fixed Broadcast Satellite ISP/Hosting VenueSP cPaaS IndustrySP CDN Call Ctr SaaS IoT-SP Other What is a “service”? Subscription basis? Service vs. feature? Substitution risks? Infrastructure? Boundary with software? Uncertainties
  7. 7. What will the word “service” mean in 2030? “Service” ITU Definition : “A set of functions offered to a user by an organisation” This definition seems to exclude:  A set of functions owned & self-provisioned by a user  A set of functions offered to a developer by an organisation  A set of functions embedded in a 3rd-party product or other non-radio service  A set of functions made available as a public amenity  A set of functions owned & consumed by an autonomous organisation  A set of functions enshrined as a human right Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017
  8. 8. Wireless “service providers” of the future? Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017
  9. 9. Many ways to solve any problem: arbitrage is everywhere Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017 The same is true for connectivity options: Substitution parallels competition
  10. 10. Pervasive AI will deeply impact network demand & supply Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017 Least-cost routing Energy Management Quasi-QoS Multiple variables Autonomous & Offline Path Optimisation Capacity Planning IoT data management
  11. 11. IIoT & Industry 4.0 has many domain-specific requirements Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017
  12. 12. “National” policies & licenses may not always work Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017 Power station Car factory Airport Oil refinery Port Offshore windfarm Shared Spectrum rules could enable private, regional industrial-grade 5G/WiFi networks for IoT & Industry 4.0 (Perhaps with a blockchain register?)
  13. 13. Monocultures: Harmonisation brings efficiency… and risks Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017
  14. 14. Can “one size fit all”? Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017
  15. 15. Multiple platforms & ecosystem diversity adds resilience Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017 image: www.freeimages.co.uk
  16. 16. What might 2030 mean for spectrum policy?  IoT, software & mobile continues to change everything  Revisit the definition of “services” & SPs  Wireless connectivity ownership gets democratised  Substitution = Functional Competition  Industrial IoT will bring many unique requirements  Consider mechanisms for geo-fenced licencing  Many tech pathways for any “outcome”  AI will have profound & unexpected impacts  Question network “monoculture” vs “diversity” Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017
  17. 17. www.deanbubley.com disruptivewireless.blogspot.com @disruptivedean information@disruptive-analysis.com Skype:disruptiveanalysis Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017February 2017

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