Future of Voice - Next Generation Service Platforms & WebRTC Conference 2014

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Presentation by Dean Bubley of Disruptive Analysis at IIR Next Generation Service Platforms & WebRTC conference in Munich.

Covers challenges faced by telecoms / mobile operators in maintaining / increasing revenues in face of flat or declining telephony, data & SMS revenues. Focuses on new areas for voice/video "beyond the phone call" including WebRTC, Hypervoice, Telecom APIs

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Future of Voice - Next Generation Service Platforms & WebRTC Conference 2014

  1. 1. The Future of Voice Services Beyond the Phone Call Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis IIR NextGen Service Platforms & WebRTC Munich, June 2014 dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean
  2. 2. About Disruptive Analysis  London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm  Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors  Covering VoIP since 1997 & 3G/4G mVoIP since 2007  Published report on “Telco-OTT Strategies”, 2012  Full report & updates on WebRTC, Feb/Jun/Oct’13 & Mar’14  Non-Neutral Mobile Broadband Report, June 2014  Workshops on Future of Voice & TelcoOTT Twitter @disruptivedean Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014June 2014
  3. 3. Telecoms industry in a nutshell Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014June 2014 Flat/falling telephony Declining SMS Direct/Internet competition Substitutes & alternatives Costly infrastructure Regulatory impact Data still growing Digital content Verticals Telco-OTT APIs & partnerships Better segmentation
  4. 4. The big problem for the mobile industry… Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014June 2014 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Voice telephony VAS / digital Internet/data access SMS/MMS $bn – Global Mobile Operator Revenue ? New/partner services? Voice/video-based? Verticals? Source: Disruptive Analysis
  5. 5. Demand & elasticity for core telecom services Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014June 2014 Time Demand Unconstrained demand Price-constrained demand Behaviour changes, alternatives emerge: peak theoretical demand Price-elasticity takes time to catch up Peak Telephony / Messaging
  6. 6. SMS volumes & revenues falling off a cliff Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014June 2014 Source; BNetzA Growing A2P volumes isn’t going to help much
  7. 7. RCS/joyn isn’t going to rescue messaging either Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014June 2014 Attribution (Creative Commons): https://www.flickr.com/photos/dhollister/2596483147
  8. 8. Net/Not neutrality won’t stop data flattening too Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014June 2014 Data connectivity will soon saturate in developed markets Source: Disruptive Analysis Non-Neutral MBB Report
  9. 9. The bad news: we’re past “peak telephony” Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014June 2014 Total German telephony minutes fell 1.5% in 2013 Mobile minutes grew just 1% (Source: BNetzA) More supply, flat/lower demand = Price & value erosion
  10. 10. 2 problems: competition & substitution Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014June 2014 Price, functionality, integration, coolness etc – but still a voice app More effective ways to perform tasks than a phone call or voice interaction
  11. 11. Old distant voice [Tele-phone] >100 years ago Pretty good for the 19th century... But apart from mobility, not much has changed
  12. 12. The question telco execs can never answer Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014June 2014 Why do people make phone calls, or use other voice capabilities, anyway? And can we encourage them to do it more?
  13. 13. Two charts you’ll never see… Calls by purpose Gossip Meeting up Flirting B2C Cust Svc B2B internal Spam Showing off Work Wasting time Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014June 2014 Must have Nice to have Meh. I want free I'll call back Importance of QoS, % calls Diagrams are illustrative, not actual data Telecom industry doesn’t understand demand for its core product Makes it impossible to defend vs. competition & substitution
  14. 14. For some users, Quality = “cuteness” not QoS Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014June 2014
  15. 15. Voice: From Telephony to “Rich Voice” & VAS  Basic standalone telephony “voice transport”  Sustained demand for basic “calls” although volume & value will fall  Success needs feature, quality, convenience etc  New forms of standalone communication eg ephemeral  Unlikely to be standards-based or interoperable  Contextual voice in apps, websites, processes  APIs, plug-ins, mashups etc  Some can use telephony as a “raw ingredient”, but not all  Voice processing, analytics etc. on top of transport  Recording, translation, sentiment, concierge, agents etc  Also non-voice audio, video, other realtime comms Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014June 2014 All need understanding of “purpose” and platforms
  16. 16. Standards & interoperability aren’t everything Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014June 2014 Standard & interoperable Silo or proprietary Transport (calls) Value-adds (conferencing , 1-800 etc) Transport Value-adds (Cloud, context, analytics etc) Much (not all) future voice value derived from silos or proprietary implementations
  17. 17. Future 4G telephony standards & approaches Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014June 2014 GSM / SS7 LTE CSFB VoLTE NGN-VoIP Wholesale VoIP BYOV 8 out of 290 networks Huge complexity Only ToLTE anyway Business case? Good enough
  18. 18. Hypervoice Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014June 2014 Voice as two-way audio Voice as information AUDIO DATA ONLY FULL CONTEXTUAL DATA TRANSMISSION STORAGE & PROCESSING
  19. 19. Telco-OTT voice/messaging applications Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014June 2014 + also TelcoOTT content, cloud, advanced comms, TV, developer platforms… Orange Libon Swisscom iO NTT 050 plus Comcast Xfinity Connect China Mobile JegoTelefonica Tuenti (WebRTC) Rogers One-Number
  20. 20. The vision: voice & video comms everywhere Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014June 2014
  21. 21. Service e.g. SMS, Telephony Product e.g. Viber, Uberconference Feature e.g. In-game chat Function Voice/video moving from service to function Cloud Voice Platforms & APIs
  22. 22. WebRTC on >4bn devices by 2016 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014June 2014 Source: Disruptive Analysis WebRTC Strategy Report update April 2014 Lack of explicit MS & Apple browser support less important than some believe
  23. 23. Lead WebRTC use-cases Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014Source: Disruptive Analysis WebRTC report update April 2014 Customer service & developer platforms Consumer web apps & enterprise UC Live & commercial Verticals, CDNs, full conferencing Pilots / pre- commercial Trials & demos Telco IMS, entertainment, M2M
  24. 24. For telcos WebRTC is really a magnifier/catalyst Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014April 2014 Now With WebRTC Bigger opportunities Worse threats Faster speed
  25. 25. Comms ubiquity is dead. And that’s a good thing. Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014June 2014 Why do I want to do it?: Management by rolling about. What do I want to do? “Make a video call”
  26. 26. Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2014June 2014 www.disruptive-analysis.com disruptivewireless.blogspot.com @disruptivedean information@disruptive-analysis.com Stay for the WebRTC workshop, Tuesday 6.30pm

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