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WebRTC: Overview, Status & ForecastAn extract of Disruptive Analysis’ groundbreaking new research report on WebRTC More detail available for report purchasers/subscribers April 4th 2013 dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean

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About Disruptive Analysis London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm Covers mobile, voice, service provider technology Cross-silo, contrarian, visionary, independent Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors Covering VoIP since 1997 & WebRTC since June 2011 Published report on “Telco-OTT Strategies”, Feb 2012 **New** Report on WebRTC, Published Feb 2013 see http://disruptive-analysis.com/webrtc.htmTwitter @disruptivedeanBlog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.comApr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

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Remember these? Video & IM move to web Many previous “standalone” functions are now integrated with web pagesApr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

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Coming next: voice, video, data in browser (Yes, you can sort-of do it with plug-ins and Flash already.... But it’s not very good)Concept: a simple set of Javascript APIs so web devs can use it without fuss Complexities of codecs, media engine, firewall traversal etc all “sorted”Apr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

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What is WebRTC & why does it matter? In-browser comms, “realtime web” Catalysed by Google & open-sourcing of GIPS engine W3C WebRTC = API & IETF RTCWeb = protocols In theory – no separate apps or plug-ins Aimed at allowing developers to add voice/video etc easily Part of HTML5 & based on Javascript Better than Flash for RTC 3 main APIs  1. GetUserMedia (camera and microphone access)  2. PeerConnection (sending and receiving media)  3. DataChannels (sending non-media direct between browsers)  Also ties in with “Websocket” IP connections W3C Last Call Working Draft expected in Q3 2013. Specification is likely to be standardized in 2014Apr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

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For the technically-minded....  WebRTC is a set of 3 W3C JavaScript APIs on top of...  RTCWeb, which is IETF’s on-the-wire protocol standard  Google open-sourced GIPS media engine for WebRTC  Standards debates: codecs (VP8/H264) & API flexibility GetUserMedia PeerConnection DataChannels Yes Yes Developer builds Yes Yes, but not default Yes, but not default Yes Timing unclear Timing Unclear Unknown if/when Unknown if/when Unknown if/whenDisruptive Analysis expects IE & Safari to start supporting WebRTC by end-2013.Neither auto-updates: there will remain a large non-supporting base for some time Apr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

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WebRTC implementation: fixed & mobile Most WebRTC on PCs will be “inside the browser” On mobile, it’s much more complicated Native browser Natively in OS 2nd browser 3rd party SDKWebRTC is one area that is definitely not “mobile-first”. PCs about 18 months ahead Apr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

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Device base supporting WebRTC 4000 3500 Tablets 3000 Smartphones 2500 PCs Million 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Source: Disruptive Analysis WebRTC Strategy Report, Feb 2013 Definitions & methodology in report - See disruptivewireless.blogspot.com for detailsWebRTC base will grow rapidly, catalysed by auto-updated Chrome & Firefox browsers Apr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

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Voice/video moving from service to function Servicee.g. SMS, Telephony Product e.g. Lync, Uberconference Feature e.g. Business social Function

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WebRTC? But we’ve had VoIP apps for years! Most VoIP apps are standalone “calling” tools Contextual / in-app opportunity slow & fragmented Complexity for developers  X-Platform hassles  Rocket-science for SIP, acoustics etc  Immaturity of voice/telephony APIs  “Telephony” model inflexible WebRTC fit with HTML5/apps should enable “beyond the call” voice & video with less heavy lifting Similar to Flash video replacing Real for in-browser streaming Plus cool new stuff like realtime data Mashups + comms may shift shape of the curveApr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

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Voice ≠ Telephony Past: 2G / 3G / PSTN / UC Future: WebRTC, apps, APIs, 4G Voice Voice Telephony Telephony Voicemail Gaming, CEBP,Conferencing surveillance, social PTT Video voice, TV voice etc Video, context, sense Expect a shift away from “standalone” to “contexualised” communications Apr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

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Only a slight exaggeration: Phone calls are 120 years old The “call” is reaching obsolescence Poor fit with real human behaviour WebRTC & mobile apps enable better, but fragmented communicationsApr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

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WebRTC key use cases Browser-to-browser Browser-to-Telco Browser-to-Telco CS Browser-to-UC(or web-app) comms VoIP/IMS/3Telco- / PSTN or IP-PBX OTT IMS Browser-to- Browser-to-contact Browser/app Verticals webserver centre conferencing Web Healthcare Plus: M2M, gaming, TV-based, data-centric & various others Apr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

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What use-cases lead? Existing Adding real-time web comms capabilities services Existing Extending via the web, realtime blending web capabilities comms services ?Apr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

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Developer world is fragmented VoIP & Mobile Video App WebRTC is trying devs devs to please all the people, all the time Corp Web IT devs devsApr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

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WebRTC is a 3-legged (& therefore stable) stool WebRTCEnterprise Telco Consumer Can survive even if one of the “legs” takes too long: especially as each area has 3-5 major subsets Enterprise Telco ConsumerApr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

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Enterprise benefits of WebRTC as platform Many use-cases & “angles”  Your website becomes your call centre  New models for customer interaction (eg contextual support via video)  Browser becomes flexible/updateable softphone  Easier federation / interconnect between companies  Slick web-based conferencing, inc. easier integration with web tools like LinkedIn & DropBox  Easier 2-way comms within mobile apps  Various new possibilities with realtime data sharing Don’t just think about WebRTC in terms of today’s telephony Think more adding comms to any company website or appApr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

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Enterprises? Never mind BYO Device..... How about BYO voice? Or BYO messaging & UC? Or BYO conferencing? Or BYO contact centre? Voice & video comms about to be democratised Traditional enterprise teams needs to understand/exploit Or else the web & users will do it independentlyApr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

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For telcos, it’s all looking pretty grim anyway Downsides Voice & SMS saturation & cannibalisation Regulation & competitive impacts Weak content & VAS propositions Economic pressures Ecosystem competition Upsides Connecting the last unconnected Smartphones & data growth Better segmentation, pricing & promotion Innovative services & enablers Embracing & exploiting fragmentationApr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

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For telcos WebRTC is really a magnifier/catalyst Now With WebRTC Bigger opportunities Worse threats Faster speedFeb 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

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Voice & messaging go in-context Telephony and messaging is increasingly done “in- context” or “in-app”. But in many cases, telco APIs don’t offer the right “raw ingredients” or business model.Apr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

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Fragmentation is valuable Convergence & Fragmentation & standards innovation It will fragment “because it can”. Consumer need for ubiquity is over-rated… new standardised services are neither necessary, nor sufficient. They are irrelevant at best, and actively damaging at worst. Ubiquity is dead. Apr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

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Telcos developing “digital services” armsMany operators have business units developing their own “Telco-OTT” services. WebRTC can help time-to-market, functionality & ease of developmentMarch 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 23

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Key success factors for Telco-OTT/WebRTCOrganisation & governance Managing cannibalisation Network awareness Design Software mindset Synergies March 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 24

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Multiple telco angles/oppo’s for using WebRTC Enterprise VoIP / UC / conferencing moving to WebRTC Ground-up Telco-OTT interest in reach improved WebRTC (in by WebRTC labs etc) Extension of Telco Apps, developer IMS / RCS / & HTML5 VoLTE over WebRTC initiatives WebRTC interest adding WebRTC + Policy / broadband teams: Can we detect / block / bill for it? Regulatory: What does this mean, how do we do 911 etc? IMS extension currently “loudest” Telco/WebRTC domain, but not necessarily most important. Execs should ensure it is exploited across the organisationApr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

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Key question: New ecosystem battleground? + growing vendor support Traditional comms tools & services in the crossfire?Microsoft CU-RTC-WEB WebRTC or not?Apple & Microsoft not yet aligned – will they use WebRTC as a way to fight Google? If so, will telcos and classical voice networks be collateral damage? Apr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

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Use-case summary: WebRTC exploitation factors Contact Calling centres UC Conferencing IMS extension Social Telco-OTTWebRTC-OnlyControl over usersRisk AppetiteEnd-to-end controlPSTN integrationDevice diversity expectedDirection of commsNovelty valueOrganisational issuesBusiness model clarityGeek factorWealthy users only?Broadband requirementsTarget platform diversityBehaviour change neededLegacy integration problemsImportance of UI/UXPerson-to-person, or A2P?Litigation/regulatory risksCompetitive threatsIncumbency obstaclesSource: Disruptive Analysis, Feb 2013Factor descriptions/detail in full report:See disruptive-analysis.com Favourable Moderate Challenging Difficult Apr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

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Conclusion WebRTC is real and here now Still very new but evolving at super-speed  Standards issues, mobile & even MS/Apple worked around Supported by almost all “big names” from comms & Web  “Buzz” from incumbents, startups, investors; few dissenters Browser support on PCs fairly fast, mobile more patchy Multiple use-cases  Enterprise  Telco  Consumer web  Niche / vertical / disruptive plays Use-cases with many “moving parts” will take longer  So start now!Apr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

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www.disruptive-analysis.com  WebRTC report detailsdisruptivewireless.blogspot.com@disruptivedeandean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com+44 (0) 7941 100016Skype: disruptiveanalysis Apr 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013