...and recentRecovery from Disaster events inThe LAquila, Padang and EmiliaChristchurch earthquakes David Alexander University College London
Causes of disaster natural geophysical, technological, social RESILIENCE History Human Adaptation single and cultures to risk cumulative constraints impact and of pastopportunities disasters IMPACTS
We need an evidence-based approach to:-• the performance of structures in earthquakes status of knowledge: systematic • the behaviour of people in earthquakes status of knowledge: unorganised • the economics of seismic risk and impact status of knowledge: patchy • the epidemiology of injuries in earthquakes status of knowledge: haphazard • the nature and remediation of multi- faceted vulnerability to earthquakes status of knowledge: unsystematic .
What was this absurd structure doing in a seismic zone?SantAgostino di Ferrara (FE), 20-5-2012
LAquilacentral Italy6 April 2009magnitude 6.3308 dead Christchurch New Zealand 22 February 2011 Padang magnitude 6.3 Sumatra, Indonesia 185 dead 30 September 2009 magnitude 7.6 1,115 dead
The LAquila earthquake of 6 April 2009 • magnitude 6.3, duration 25 seconds • acceleration on hard rock 0.3g, on soft sediments 0.7-1.0g • part of an earthquake swarm that has lasted many months • the first earthquake with epicentre very near a major urban centre in Italy since 1915.
Government policy on shelter• 22,000 people in hotels: common solution - unsuccessful in Irpinia, 1980• 21,000 people in tents for 6-8 months: radical departure• transitional accommodation ready for 65% of survivors in 8 months: major achievement, but controversial.
• 4,600 apartments in 184 buildings on 19 sites - for 15,500 residents • €280,607 per apartment (€3,875 per square meter of living space).C.A.S.E. - Complessi Antisismici Sostenibili ed Ecocompatibili
€1,427 per base isolator, €55,000 per building
M.A.P. - Moduli abitativi provvisori• standard prefabs without base isolation• 54 sites, half of them in LAquila city• 8,500 people accommodated.
Problems with CASE and MAP sites• social fragmentation leads to depression, isolation and marginalisation• total lack of services and transportation• induced dependence on private transport without infrastructure improvement• exclusion of single person families.
Problems with LAquila recovery policy• stagnation of reconstruction through lack of funds and planning• political paralysis and intimidation by central government• massive rise in unemployment plus severe economic deflation• local inflation, especially of house rents• loss of basic services.
SpontaneousSome publicstakeholders Individualin disaster citizensresponse Kinship groups Disaster Workplace subcultures groups Citizens Emergent organisations Charitable groups Schools NGOsOrganised Established
Western Sumatra earthquake• magnitude 7.6• 1,115 dead, 1,250,000 affected• 2,902 injured: 1,214 grave, 1,688 slight• 75 public buildings destroyed• 279,000 houses damaged: 135,000 severe, 65,000 moderate, 79,000 light.
Prevailing style of public buildings• heavy structure but weak frame• poor column-beam joints, soft ground floor• high vulnerability to total collapse• possible high death toll• certain loss of critical functions.
...giving rise to characteristic patterns of collapse.
Serious damage put Pariaman town hall out of action.
Government Satisfaction paternalism Social Inclusive ...or... exclusion outcomes Public participation in Discontent decision making Discontent(must be informed)
What is welfare?The provision ofcare to a minimumacceptable standardto people who areunable adequatelyto look afterthemselves.But we also needto focus on whatwelfare is NOT...
Hazards and risks: disaster preparedness Uncertain future:Governance: long-term democratic Livelihoods: trendsparticipation diversity climate in decision and security change making capacity to adapt RESILIENCE: managing risks adapting to change securing resources
Good Amelioration (functionality maintained) Suff- Reco- ering Transitional veryEarth- Permanent housing and quake reconstruction settlement Public image Bad of politicians (functional National problems)Political Political impact Regional Electionsresponse on reconstruction Local A reconstruction model
Five key messagesProvision of welfare should not inhibitprocesses of recovery and growth.Resilience is multi-faceted: are inter-connections more important than facets?Sustainability applies to disasterrisk reduction as well as daily life.Governance and protection oflivelihoods are the root of DRR.Common sense logic doesnt necessarilydrive the politics of disaster recovery.
The creation of a culture of civil protection HABIT INSTRUMENTS OF DISSEMINATION MASS • mass media EDUCATION CULTURE • targeted campaign PROGRAMME • social networks • internet SOCIAL CAPITAL Augmentation
Sustainable development and livelihoodsPublic and Sustainable political funding support Sustainable civil protection programmes
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