Hazards Risks Disasters 1


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Hazards Risks Disasters 1

  1. 1. Hazards, Risksand Disasters I David Alexander Global Risk Forum - Davos (CH)
  2. 2. Plan of this two-part lesson:-• Theoretical basis• Organisation of the field• Emergency planning and management• Information, perception and education• Conclusion: challenges for the future.
  3. 3. A basis of theory
  4. 4. Synonyms and approximations Resilience
  5. 5. Some characteristics of large emergencies• events that cannot be managed with normal resources• 90% of emergencies do not require special procedures• 10% require a qualitative change in management techniques• the context of risk and vulnerability can transform an incident into a disaster.
  6. 6. International Catastrophe National Disaster Major incident Regional Municipal Incident...but there are no quantitative definitions...
  7. 7. Partly after Major Incidents Disasters CatastrophesTierney (2008) incidents Very Generally Widespread ExtremelyImpact localised localised and severe large Inter- Major Local Some mutualResponse governmental international efforts assistance response response Standard Emergency Emergency PlansPlans and operating plans plans fully potentiallyprocedures procedures activated activated overwhelmed Interregional Local Local Some outsideResources transfer of resources resources assistance resources overwhelmedPublic Very little Mainly not Public very Extensivelyinvolvement involvement involved involved involved Very few Few Major MassiveRecovery challenges challenges challenges challenges
  8. 8. Emergency Restoration of planning and basic services organisation of security systemsSafety and security measures Emergency Warning and action and preparations; damage damage limitation prevention measures measures
  9. 9. Anatomy of a major incident Funerals Debriefings Anniversaries Plan revision Inquests Public enquiries Major Trials incident Awards Memorials declared Training Court cases Consolidation Recovery phase phaseResponse Emergency Investigation isolation phase Stand-down Time
  10. 10. Hazard monitoring & Disaster forecastingmanagement Policies Major Plans Human & incident Procedures materialmanagement Protocols resources Incidentmanagement Population (community) protection
  11. 11. Population (community) Plans, protection procedures, protocols Disaster risk reduction Hazardforecasting, Human monitoring, Incident and material etc. management resources
  12. 12. Community disaster planning Volunteerism Donations Self-organisation Community resources Organisation Resources Imposed Governmental organisation resources Laws, protocols, directivesStandards, norms, guidelines International resources
  13. 13. International: exchange and support Nation: policies of Volontary compatibility, harmonisation sector: and co-ordinationsupport andintegration Province, region, state, county: co-ordination, assistance Private Municipality or other local sector: authority: emergency operations integration Disaster
  14. 14. Harmonisation from above (national or regional levels) Central Devolution control Organisation and growth from below(local level: municipalities, volunteers, etc.)
  15. 15. Local incident Local response A Threshold of local capacitySmall regional Co-ordinated local response Bincident Threshold of intermunicipal capacityMajor regional Intermunicipal and Bincident regional response Threshold of regional capacityNational Intermunicipal, regional Cdisaster and national response Threshold of national capacityInternational Ditto, with more Ccatastrophe international assistance
  16. 16. Devolution Centrism Nation state Nation state Municipality MunicipalityCivil protection Civil defence
  17. 17. Disaster relief as a barter market for resourcesDONATE ALLOCATE Global National Supernational Regional National LocalREQUEST DEMAND
  18. 18. The pressures of devolution and centrismThe natural tendency The less than naturalfrom above tendency from above subordinate harmonise control negotiate repress support restrict accommodate act autonomously conform empower cede enable comply liberate submitThe natural tendency The less than naturalfrom below tendency from below
  19. 19. Organisational Naturalsystems: systems:management function Hazard Vulnerability ResilienceSocial Technicalsystems: systems:behaviour malfunction
  20. 20. Lesson: There are functional differences between the responsesto each level of incident or disaster.
  21. 21. Civil Protectionand Civil Defence
  22. 22. Emergency preparednesshas reached acrossroads....
  23. 23. A new class Natural: earthquakes, Technological: toxic spills, floods, transportationlandslides, etc. crashes, etc. Forms of disaster Social: Intentional: riots, mass acts of of disaster? gatherings,demonstrations terrorism
  24. 24. "Civil Civil contingencies" protection The management security industry Emergencies and disasters"Homeland Business security" continuity Complex management emergencies
  25. 25. Civil protection: What are the what degree of What role for limits of civil political support? the security contingencies industry in management? the general emergency? Emergencies Homeland and disasters What security: relationship is reduction of businessin civil liberties continuity acceptable? Complex emergencies: management How much aid from with civil donor countries? authorities?
  26. 26. Natural Anthropogenic Techno- Inten- Natural Social logical tional disasters disasters disasters disasters Civil defenceCivilprotectionCivil contingenciesand Resilience "Homeland Security"
  27. 27. Evolving Largestrategic technologicalsituation hazards Instability Complex threats hazards Na-tech Civil Defence (hybrid) Civil Protection hazards Enhanced Natural natural hazards hazardsEvolving Majorclimate geophysicalchange events
  28. 28. Armed aggression on the part of states Natural disasters Civil defence Civil protection"Homeland security" "Civil contingencies" (civil defence) (resilience) Armed aggression "Generic" disasters on the part of groups of dissidents
  29. 29. Paramilitary forces PMF (National Guard) PF MFPolice Militaryforces forces Italy Fire Public FB PAbrigades administrations CVF Civilian volunteer PMF PMF forces PF MFPF MF USA UKFB PA FB PA CVF CVF
  30. 30. Command Locus of function control principleTension of Spectrum of opposites alternatives Locus of Support collaboration function (support) principle
  31. 31. Order..................Chaos Locus of Directed.......Ungovernable control Control.......Loss of control Autonomy.........Constraint Locus ofcollaboration Initiative.......Obey orders (support) Collaboration.."Freelancing"
  32. 32. Military CivilianArmed Civil administrationforces Volunteers (civil society) Emergency services(army) [residual role]Civil defence Civil protectionCommand and control Co-ordination and co-operationChain of command Autonomy
  33. 33. Emergency management: an evolutionary approach Civil defence...............Civil protection Proxy ParticipatoryCommand and control CollaborationVertical chain Task forcesof command Population consultedPopulation excluded and includedLaw and order Problem solvingSecrecy Openness
  34. 34. Military aid to civil authorities and communities Humanitarian Domestic assistance disaster relief Foreign civil Domestic civil institutions: institutions: • local • local • regional • regional • national • nationalInternational organisations and NGOs: UN, IFRC, etc.
  35. 35. Disaster Risk Reduction ResilienceCivil Contingencies Management Civil Protection Disaster Management Broader Changing scope and objectives outcomes of emergency management
  36. 36. Technical Organisational Social Hazard Decision to warn Warning GeneralScientists Administrators Public RiskEvaluation communication Protective action The warning process
  37. 37. Lesson: There are functional differences between the responsesto each level of incident or disaster.
  38. 38. Counter-Terrorism
  39. 39. Homeland security• the age of CBRN?• civil protection with a more restricted scope?• emergency planning dominated by counter-terrorism preparations• the resurgence of civil defence• secrecy: "the public does not need to know".
  40. 40. • Terrorism is a form of teleological disaster (i.e. piloted)• it is potentially infinitely mutable• designing remedies is a very expensive process• the scenarios are highly debatable.
  41. 41. Aum Shinrikyo (the "Religion of Supreme Truth")20 March 1995 attack onfive Tokyo metro trains:-• 5,510 people affected• 278 hospitals involved• 98 of them admitted 1,046 inpatients• 688 patients transported by ambulance• 4,812 made their own way to hospital.
  42. 42. Aum Shinrikyo attack (1995)Dead: 12Critically injured: 17Seriously ill: 37Moderately ill: 984Slightly ill: 332• 110 hospital staff and 10% of first responders intoxicated• "Worried well": 4,112 (85% of patients).
  43. 43. The case of Alexander Litvinenko• a small, concentrated attack with a highly toxic substance: 210Po• 30 localities contaminated• tests on hundreds of people• a strain on many different agencies• problems of determining who was responsible for costs of clean-up.
  44. 44. PPE level A (contaminant unknown) Hot area PPE level B (contaminated) (contaminant known) Warm area Medical (decontamination) staff and PPE level C first responders Cold area PPE level D (clean treatment) >300 m upwindPPE=personal protection equipment
  45. 45. The principal effect of terrorism on the general public could be, not any direct involvement of people in an incident, but the disruption of normal daily life......with huge costs to society.
  46. 46. Laboratory Nuclear error with emission (NR) CBR emissionsIndustrial Terrorist Chemical,or military attack with biological accident C, B, R or N or nuclear with CNR warfare contaminants (CBN) emissions Disease Sabotage with epidemic or poisonous agent pandemic (B)
  47. 47. Industrial Medical Nuclear accident accident accident People (victims) Epiphytotic Epizootic(food chain) (food chain) CBRN attack
  48. 48. Counter-terrorism activityOrganisation Stockpiling• procedures • equipment• event scenarios • supplies• emergency plansIntelligence Training• collection • plan dissemination• interpretation • exercises• warning Involvement of civil protectionSurveillance Analysis• automatic (CCTV) • laboratory• manual (personnel) • forensic
  49. 49. Lesson: counter-terrorism activities havehad a profound impact on the organisation of other forms of disaster response.
  50. 50. Planning
  51. 51. Emergency Emergencyprocedures co-ordination plan Spontaneous imnprovisation Emergency environment
  52. 52. Policies Command systems • operations centres Plans • task forces • communications • chains of commandProceduresOperations Results
  53. 53. Hierarchical Government, divisions healthcare, National,commerce, etc. regional,Functional local, etc. divisions Division and integration Geographical Police, divisions Ambulance, Catchments, Fire, etc. jurisdictions, Organisational areas, etc. divisions
  54. 54. Emergency response planning Incident Permanent emergency plan Contingency planning in the pre-emergency phase (days) Operational planning Short-term strategic planning (hours → days) Short-term tactical planning (hours)
  55. 55. Permanent emergency plan AftermathMonitoring Strategic,prediction tactical & operational& warning planning Business continuity plan Recovery and reconstruction planning Disaster
  57. 57. Disaster Co-ordinated Disaster EMS Disaster in the systemin the medical plans of medical centre centres Disaster Disaster Disaster planning planning for in the external for the system the medical environment of medical centre centres Disaster planning for the external environment
  58. 58. Planning Preparation • scenarios • education & training • risk analysis • exercises • emergency plans • plan dissemination • protocols • revision of plansOrganisation Resources• comand structure • materials• task forces • vehicles, equipment• operations centres • communications• communications • manpower
  59. 59. Lesson: planning for emergencies and crisesshould be a continuous process, not an end.
  60. 60. Thank you for your attention! David Alexander d.alexander@alice.itemergency-planning.blogspot.com www.slideshare.net/dealexander