Anticipated climate change effects:- effects:-• major population increases at coasts with rising sea level and land loss• more extreme physical forces lead to more frequent and intense floods, hurricanes, landslides, tornadoes...• major changes in food chain: chain: crop production, soil erosion, etc.• disease reservoirs change geographically• less available coastal land. land.
Wind speed and hurricane damage arenon-linearly related: small increases in windspeed can lead to huge increases in damage
What does the old magnitude-frequency rule mean in real-life situations?Magnitude Logarithm of Frequency Magnitude return period
Risk: value of probable costs and losses Falling hazard Rising vulnerability Hazard: probability of occurrence with diminishing Y IT Vulnerability: potential damage probability of B IL with increasing RA seriousness of occurrence E LN potential Vertical axis scales: V U consequences HA ZA RIS RD K Risk as product of hazard and : vulnerability Total annual : predicted costs and losses : Severity Fat-tailed distribution
Hazard or risk amplified Arbitrarily defined disaster threshold by lack of mitigationFREQUENCY OF HAZARD Frequency / impact level RISK (R) OR Hazard or risk mitigated VULNERABILITY (V) OR IMPACT LEVEL
HURRICANE KATRINAA balance sheet computed with hindsight:- hindsight: • impact scenarios ignored • forecasts shrugged off • wind loading factors not taken into account sufficiently in structural design• reliance on fallible structural protection • inadequate emergency plan • inadequate evacuation planning and management • slow and inefficient Federal response• Hurricane Ivan lessons not implemented. implemented.
Squatter settlementin Bangladesh Flood level Normal river level Rather than mitigating the sources of vulnerability to disaster, globalisation is maintaining, exporting and reinforcing them by its divide-and-rule strategies
Disaster risk and other risk:-• Intensive risk: high concentration of mortality and disaster losses• Extensive risk: geographic dispersal of population to low-intensity risk• Everyday risk: crime, political violence, food insecurity, pollution, lack of clean water and sanitation• Poverty: relative and absolute, leading to marginalisation• Poverty and vulnerability are almost (but not quite) synonymous.
A double standard: $3,500,000,000 to save hedge funds, $100,000,000 to save the victims of Hurricane Mitch
In 2005 the rich countries donated $4.5 billion to the countries affected by the Indian Ocean tsunami At the same time, the U.N. was not able to raise $30 million for themajor crisis in Dafur
Total: Total: life isNewly generallygenerated:generated: precarious Economic: Economic:caused by people lackchanges in adequatecircumstances occupation Vulnerability TechnologicalDelinquent:Delinquent: technocratic: technocratic:caused by caused bycorruption,corruption, the riskinessnegligence, Residual:negligence, Residual: caused by of technologyetc. lack of modernisation
The components of risk MagnitudePhysical disaster Frequency Duration Location of hazard Exposition Environment Lifestyle and earningsHuman Resistance Healthvulnerability Adjustments Resilience Risk reduction activities Preparations for disaster After Ian Davis (2005)
Hazard x Vulnerability x Exposure = Risk → Disaster Hazard x WASTE x Exposure = Risk → Disaster
Trends in disaster losses are unsustainable. Over the period 1950-2000 the world saw increases of:• 250% in the number of recorded disasters• 500% in number of disasters with victims• 500% in the number of affected people 100• 1500% in the total 80 152 bn US$ cost of disasters U.S$ billion 60• 1640% in the cost 40 of insured damage. 20 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Economic losses in disasters
Then (1950s) Now (2011)Under-reporting of More completedisasters recordingCounting only direct Quantifying indirecteffects effectsSmaller population of Larger population,hazardous places greater densitiesLess inequality Growing inequality and marginalisationLess fixed capital at Relentless accumulationrisk of fixed capitalSimpler socio-economic More complex networksnetworks
Armed aggression on the part of states Natural disasters Civil defence Civil protection"Homeland security" "Civil contingencies" (civil defence) (resilience) Armed aggression "Generic" disasters on the part of groups of dissidents
"Civil Civil contingencies" protection The management security industry Emergencies and disasters"Homeland Business security" continuity Complex management emergencies
Civil protection: protection: What are the what degree of What role for limits of civil political support? the security contingencies industry in management? management? the general emergency? Emergencies Homeland and disasters What security: security: relationship is reduction of businessin civil liberties continuity acceptable? Complex emergencies: emergencies: management How much aid from with civil donor countries? authorities?
Hazard monitoring & Disaster forecastingmanagement Policies Major Plans Human & incident Procedures materialmanagement Protocols resources Incidentmanagement Population (community) protection
An asset is not A hazard is notvulnerable unless hazardous unlessit is threatened Resilience it threatens by something something Hazard RISK VulnerabilityExtreme Elements events at risk Exposure
Knowledge Knowledge of of hazards community and their vulerability impacts DRR Knowledge of copingDisaster capacity and Risk resilienceReduction
Population (community) Plans, protection procedures, protocols Disaster risk reduction Hazardforecasting, Human monitoring, Incident and material etc. management resources
needs to be needs to be shortened lengthenedpreparation repair offor the warning Emergency basicnext event management Reconstruction services impact Sustainable reduction of risks and impacts
Sustainable emergency management:- management:-• is centred upon the local level (but is harmonised from above) above)• has the support and involvement of the population• is based on plans that are fully disseminated and frequently revised• is a fundamental, every-day service every- for the population and is taken seriously. seriously.
Attitude:• positive outlook RESILIENCE• ingenious approaches• searching for solutions• involving other people Redundancy • expensive but worthwhile • alternative solutionsPreparedness: • extra capacity• emergency plans• monitoring & forecasting• warning & evacuation• public information
Mitigation Preparation and risk and reduction warning Linkages Recovery Emergency and actionreconstruction Integration through planning and training
Global drivers e.g. weak governance Underlying risk drivers e.g. vulnerability Poverty Everyday risk Intensive risk Extensive riskDisaster risk and poverty Poverty Disaster outcomes impacts
Conclusions: what we need:• governance: the action or governance: manner of governing (OED)• participatory democracy and using the concept of stakeholders• transparency, freedom from corruption, transparency,economic probity and good government• the importance of protecting livelihoods• linking the disaster risk reduction agenda to the climate change adaptation one. one.
The disaster manager needs...• to have a political profile• to be adaptable to rapid and profound changes in political priorities, environmental and demographic circumstances• to monitor the climate change agenda, science and debate• to ensure that his or her programmes are sustainable. sustainable.