Change through LeadershipLeadership through Change<br />Antwerp – 4th May 2011<br />Peter De KeyzerChief Economist <br />
Leadership and Change after the economic crisis<br /><ul><li>Financial crisis from G20 to G zero
Eurozone : needing change, lacking leadership
The future debt crisis: change requires leadership</li></li></ul><li>From G20 to G-zero<br />
From G20 to G zero<br />G7 /G8 used to be the reference France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, United States, Canada, Russia<b...
Likely failure of WTO Doha round
Reversion to soft protectionism
World imbalances still remain
Incompatible growth models
G zero??</li></li></ul><li>The roots of the crisis are still here<br />
European debt crisis…<br />
…the real European problem<br />
Shifting cargo within Europe<br />
The balance of power has shifted<br />Current Account as % of GDP, IMF Figures<br />
Angela opens Pandora’s box<br />
Future of the EMU<br />Design error in the Monetary Union<br />« No Bail-out » becomes  « No Default »<br />First Politica...
Eurozone crisis<br /><ul><li>For Europe as a whole
…not a European fiscal crisis
…a European governance crisis and a European leadership crisis
Germany is a reluctant leader, if it all…
“Germany has long been one of the most passionate supporters of European integration. Some German analysts fear that if th...
The future Debt Crisis<br />
Belgium: Fiscal efforts needed<br />
Checklist for a succesful fiscal consolidation<br />Easy does it<br />Lower spending, not higher taxes<br />A man with a p...
No further comment…<br />
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Peter De Keyzer

720 views

Published on

Chief Economist of BNP Paribas Fortis, explains how economics need to evolve after the financial crisis has proven the prevailing economic paradigm is no longer valid

0 Comments
1 Like
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total views
720
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
4
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
5
Comments
0
Likes
1
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Peter De Keyzer

  1. 1. Change through LeadershipLeadership through Change<br />Antwerp – 4th May 2011<br />Peter De KeyzerChief Economist <br />
  2. 2. Leadership and Change after the economic crisis<br /><ul><li>Financial crisis from G20 to G zero
  3. 3. Eurozone : needing change, lacking leadership
  4. 4. The future debt crisis: change requires leadership</li></li></ul><li>From G20 to G-zero<br />
  5. 5. From G20 to G zero<br />G7 /G8 used to be the reference France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, United States, Canada, Russia<br />Crisis saw expansion into G20<br />Argentina, Brazil, China, Korea, Indonesia, Mexico, South-Africa, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Australia<br />“Rise of the rest”<br />Safety in number<br />More diverse group<br />Increased legitimacy, but…<br />Decreased effectiveness<br />Once crisis subsided, need for coordination withered away<br /><ul><li>Copenhagen Climate Summit
  6. 6. Likely failure of WTO Doha round
  7. 7. Reversion to soft protectionism
  8. 8. World imbalances still remain
  9. 9. Incompatible growth models
  10. 10. G zero??</li></li></ul><li>The roots of the crisis are still here<br />
  11. 11.
  12. 12. European debt crisis…<br />
  13. 13. …the real European problem<br />
  14. 14. Shifting cargo within Europe<br />
  15. 15. The balance of power has shifted<br />Current Account as % of GDP, IMF Figures<br />
  16. 16. Angela opens Pandora’s box<br />
  17. 17. Future of the EMU<br />Design error in the Monetary Union<br />« No Bail-out » becomes « No Default »<br />First Political Union, followed by Monetary Union<br />Germany<br />Italy<br />United States<br />Monetary Union without Political Union<br />Scandinavian Union (1873 – 1914)<br />Latin Union (1865 – 1927)<br />Bretton Woods (1944 - 1971)<br />
  18. 18. Eurozone crisis<br /><ul><li>For Europe as a whole
  19. 19. …not a European fiscal crisis
  20. 20. …a European governance crisis and a European leadership crisis
  21. 21. Germany is a reluctant leader, if it all…
  22. 22. “Germany has long been one of the most passionate supporters of European integration. Some German analysts fear that if the country finds itself both dominant and disliked, it could abandon that commitment”</li></ul>“Germany: a test of strength”, Financial Times, 12th April 2011<br /><ul><li>“Once [reunification] was realised, what is the German tradition? You have a huge country, stronger than ever since 1989, in the centre of Europe, not knowing what to do”</li></ul>Joschka Fischer, Financial Times, 12th April 2011<br />
  23. 23. The future Debt Crisis<br />
  24. 24. Belgium: Fiscal efforts needed<br />
  25. 25. Checklist for a succesful fiscal consolidation<br />Easy does it<br />Lower spending, not higher taxes<br />A man with a plan<br />A hopeless situation helps<br />
  26. 26. No further comment…<br />
  27. 27. Belgium<br />Belgium<br />Hungary<br />Hungary<br />France<br />Germany<br />Germany<br />France<br />Italy<br />Austria<br />Greece<br />Italy<br />Austria<br />Sweden<br />Sweden<br />Finland<br />Turkey<br />Czech Republic<br />Finland<br />Greece<br />Denmark<br />Denmark<br />Spain<br />Spain<br />Czech Republic<br />Netherlands<br />Norway<br />Slovakia<br />Portugal<br />Turkey<br />Netherlands<br />Norway<br />OECD<br />Portugal<br />Slovakia<br />OECD<br />Poland<br />Poland<br />United Kingdom<br />Luxemburg<br />Canada<br />United Kingdom<br />Japan<br />Canada<br />United States<br />United States<br />Switzerland<br />Switzerland<br />Iceland<br />Japan<br />Australia<br />Ireland<br />Luxemburg<br />Iceland<br />Ireland<br />Australia<br />Korea<br />Korea<br />New Zealand<br />New Zealand<br />Mexico<br />Mexico<br />0<br />5 <br />10<br />15<br />20<br />25<br />30<br />35<br />40<br />45<br />50<br />0<br />10<br />20<br />30<br />40<br />50<br />60<br />Work is heavily taxed<br />Tax wedge<br />(income tax + social security contributions,OECD)<br />Single, no children, AW<br />Married, 2 children, AW + 67% AW<br />
  28. 28. The Generous Generation<br />
  29. 29. Lagging behind<br />Global Competitiveness Index 2010–2011 rankings<br />
  30. 30. Average age at labour force exit<br />(Men) <br />68<br />66<br />64<br />62<br />60<br />58<br />56<br />54<br />52<br />ITA<br />FIN<br />IRL<br />PRT<br />BEL<br />FRA<br />AUT<br />LUX<br />NLD<br />USA<br />GBR<br />DEU<br />ESP<br />GRC<br />More workers needed, older workers needed<br />
  31. 31.
  32. 32. Structural reforms shopping list<br /><ul><li>Have more people work…
  33. 33. Have people work longer…
  34. 34. Encourage entrepreneurship…
  35. 35. Don’t hike wage taxes…
  36. 36. Find alternative sources of taxation…
  37. 37. Put government on a diet…
  38. 38. Government should invest, government should not consume…
  39. 39. Improve government efficiency…
  40. 40. Invest much more in R&D…
  41. 41. Invest in education…
  42. 42.
  43. 43. Make tough, difficult, painful and hard choices
  44. 44. “The most expensive investment is no investment at all”</li></li></ul><li>Structural reforms: change management<br />Create Urgency<br />Form a powerful coalition<br />Create a vision for Change<br />Communicate the Vision<br />Remove obstacles to change<br />Create short-term wins<br />Build on the change<br />Anchor the changes in corporate culture<br />Source: John Kotter<br />
  45. 45. Concluding remarks: Leadership and Change<br /><ul><li>Financial crisis from G20 to G zero
  46. 46. Eurozone : needing change, lacking leadership
  47. 47. The future debt crisis: change requires leadership</li></li></ul><li>

×