Gresham "Group 150" - December 2011 (Print Pdf)

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ASX Resources Gresham Group 150 - December 2011

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Gresham "Group 150" - December 2011 (Print Pdf)

  1. 1. DECEMBER 2011 Gresham Group 150 December 2011 Darren Martin Gresham Advisory Partners dmartin@gresham.com.au +61 8 9486 7077 +61 412 144 719ASX ReSouRceS - GRoup 150We are pleased to present the December edition of ‘Gresham Group 150’, a ranking of the top 150 ASX listed resourcescompanies (excluding oil and gas), by market capitalisation.The performance at “ASX Casino” continued for November.The Gresham Group 150 lost $32.2 billion or 6.8% during the month, with the cumulative market value falling from $474.6billion to $442.5 billion. The gains recorded in October, were all but nearly wiped out.The entry threshold for December’s list fell further to $87.5 million, down from $94.42 million last month. The ASX/S&P200 Resources Index decreased 6.5%, while the ASX All Ordinaries and ASX/S&P 200 Index decreased 4.0% and 4.1%respectively. We have updated the consensus commodity prices forecasts and replaced the tin analysis with iron ore fines.Building on the September 2011 edition of Gresham Group 150 where we summarised our study results of the takeoverpremiums offered in recent M&A transactions, we investigated the thesis that M&A activity was value creative in themining industry.The measure of value creation was assessed by the change in market capitalisation of the predator and the target between1 week prior and 1 week and then 3 months after the announcement of the transaction. The analysis covers the M&Atransactions announced in the past 2 years.Although there is considerable “noise” in the dataset, in the form of varying forms of offer consideration, commodity specificfactors, transaction rationale/size and market dynamics, the evidence supports the value of the target firm increases as themarket evaluates and understands the transaction and the completion risk reduces.The review of the predators suggests that the market, especially in scrip offers initially sells the stock down as shareholdersswitch into the target.In certain circumstances, both the target and the predator increase in value, hence meeting the transaction objective ofcreating shareholder value in the mining industry.Gresham Advisory partners Limited Gresham Advisory Partners is a leading Australian mergers and acquisitions/corporate advisoryEdition 20 business and one of Australia’s largest and highest ranking independent corporate advisors. 1
  2. 2. Group 150 Top 150 asX LisTed resource companies - november By Market Capitalisation Mkt cap (A$m) % Mkt cap (A$m) % Nov oct company 30-Nov-11 31-oct-11 change Nov oct company 30-Nov-11 31-oct-11 change 1 1 BHP Billiton Ltd. (ASX:BHP) $185,932.3 $201,266.9 (7.6%) 51 42 Bathurst Resources Ltd (ASX:BTU) $455.0 $537.2 (15.3%) 2 2 Rio Tinto Ltd. (ASX:RIO) $118,355.9 $130,801.2 (9.5%) 52 49 Beadell Resources Ltd (ASX:BDR) $454.0 $516.5 (12.1%) 3 3 Newcrest Mining Ltd. (ASX:NCM) $26,448.7 $25,639.7 3.2% 53 41 Mineral Deposits Ltd. (ASX:MDL) $450.3 $540.5 (16.7%) 4 4 Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. (ASX:FMG) $14,136.6 $15,101.9 (6.4%) 54 56 Gryphon Minerals Ltd. (ASX:GRY) $448.5 $418.7 7.1% 5 5 Coal & Allied Industries Ltd. (ASX:CNA) $10,781.5 $10,710.5 0.7% 55 54 Gold One International Limited (ASX:GDO) $445.1 $441.1 0.9% 6 6 Iluka Resources Ltd. (ASX:ILU) $6,088.4 $6,755.6 (9.9%) 56 59 Cockatoo Coal Limited (ASX:COK) $421.6 $391.2 7.8% 7 7 New Hope Corp. Ltd. (ASX:NHC) $4,898.4 $4,939.9 (0.8%) 57 64 Ramelius Resources Ltd. (ASX:RMS) $391.2 $358.9 9.0% 8 8 MacArthur Coal Ltd. (ASX:MCC) $4,836.5 $4,890.9 (1.1%) 58 66 Troy Resources NL (ASX:TRY) $387.6 $355.2 9.1% 9 10 Alumina Ltd. (ASX:AWC) $3,306.4 $3,611.5 (8.4%) 59 61 Summit Resources Ltd. (ASX:SMM) $381.5 $381.5 0.0% 10 9 OZ Minerals Limited (ASX:OZL) $3,287.0 $3,674.7 (10.6%) 60 62 Indophil Resources NL (ASX:IRN) $378.3 $378.3 0.0% 11 13 Aquila Resources Ltd. (ASX:AQA) $2,668.5 $2,470.8 8.0% 61 58 Kingsrose Mining Limited (ASX:KRM) $376.0 $413.2 (9.0%) 12 11 Whitehaven Coal Limited (ASX:WHC) $2,621.0 $2,942.3 (10.9%) 62 63 Ampella Mining Limited (ASX:AMX) $357.4 $371.0 (3.7%) 13 12 Atlas Iron Limited (ASX:AGO) $2,566.9 $2,791.6 (8.0%) 63 67 Metals X Limited (ASX:MLX) $345.0 $319.1 8.1% 14 15 Lynas Corporation Limited (ASX:LYC) $2,082.3 $2,065.2 0.8% 64 57 Guildford Coal Limited (ASX:GUF) $335.7 $415.5 (19.2%) 15 17 Extract Resources Ltd. (ASX:EXT) $2,011.1 $1,935.9 3.9% 65 71 Adamus Resources Ltd. (ASX:ADU) $324.9 $311.0 4.5% 16 16 PanAust Limited (ASX:PNA) $1,864.8 $1,936.1 (3.7%) 66 65 Bougainville Copper Ltd. (ASX:BOC) $322.9 $356.9 (9.6%) 17 14 Aston Resources Limited (ASX:AZT) $1,692.6 $2,157.8 (21.6%) 67 55 Bandanna Energy Limited (ASX:BND) $311.8 $438.6 (28.9%) 18 20 Gloucester Coal Ltd. (ASX:GCL) $1,560.3 $1,389.9 12.3% 68 80 Cape Lambert Resources Limited (ASX:CFE) $309.8 $277.2 11.8% 19 22 Regis Resources Limited (ASX:RRL) $1,429.4 $1,302.9 9.7% 69 100 Northern Star Resources Ltd. (ASX:NST) $308.9 $199.5 54.8% 20 18 Mount Gibson Iron Ltd. (ASX:MGX) $1,347.8 $1,672.6 (19.4%) 70 70 Tiger Resources Ltd. (ASX:TGS) $308.7 $315.4 (2.1%) 21 25 Paladin Energy, Ltd. (ASX:PDN) $1,295.0 $1,252.5 3.4% 71 69 Noble Mineral Resources Ltd. (ASX:NMG) $306.1 $316.0 (3.1%) 22 19 Perseus Mining Ltd. (ASX:PRU) $1,294.5 $1,413.9 (8.4%) 72 76 Panoramic Resources Ltd. (ASX:PAN) $304.1 $305.2 (0.4%) 23 21 Aquarius Platinum Ltd. (ASX:AQP) $1,154.7 $1,331.9 (13.3%) 73 98 Galaxy Resources (ASX:GXY) $294.2 $210.2 40.0% 24 - Evolution Mining Limited (ASX:EVN) $1,114.8 $309.0 260.8% 74 90 Red 5 Ltd. (ASX:RED) $288.8 $237.5 21.6% 25 23 Sundance Resources Ltd. (ASX:SDL) $1,108.2 $1,260.7 (12.1%) 75 88 Perilya Ltd. (ASX:PEM) $281.5 $241.7 16.5% 26 24 Medusa Mining Limited (ASX:MML) $1,085.8 $1,255.7 (13.5%) 76 89 Brockman Resources Limited (ASX:BRM) $276.5 $240.2 15.1% 27 26 Zimplats Holdings Ltd. (ASX:ZIM) $1,076.4 $1,184.0 (9.1%) 77 85 Focus Minerals Limited (ASX:FML) $254.9 $254.9 0.0% 28 29 Western Areas NL (ASX:WSA) $1,017.3 $1,044.0 (2.6%) 78 68 Alkane Resources Limited (ASX:ALK) $252.9 $317.5 (20.3%) 29 27 Coalspur Mines Limited (ASX:CPL) $959.5 $1,084.2 (11.5%) 79 74 Metminco Limited. (ASX:MNC) $244.8 $307.1 (20.3%) 30 31 Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR) $950.7 $1,032.0 (7.9%) 80 73 Aditya Birla Minerals Limited (ASX:ABY) $241.3 $308.7 (21.8%) 31 35 Resolute Mining Ltd. (ASX:RSG) $931.3 $781.2 19.2% 81 84 Tanami Gold NL (ASX:TAM) $240.1 $257.1 (6.6%) 32 30 Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (ASX:KCN) $921.3 $1,042.0 (11.6%) 82 95 Greenland Minerals and Energy Ltd (ASX:GGG) $240.1 $217.5 10.4% 33 28 Independence Group NL (ASX:IGO) $892.8 $1,079.5 (17.3%) 83 91 BC Iron Limited (ASX:BCI) $224.0 $228.6 (2.0%) 34 34 CGA Mining Limited (ASX:CGX) $757.0 $783.7 (3.4%) 84 60 Northern Iron Limited (ASX:NFE) $221.8 $388.2 (42.9%) 35 39 Silver Lake Resources Limited (ASX:SLR) $738.5 $597.3 23.6% 85 83 Equatorial Resources Limited (ASX:EQX) $217.3 $260.0 (16.4%) 36 48 Ivanhoe Australia Limited (ASX:IVA) $731.4 $519.4 40.8% 86 78 Kagara Ltd (ASX:KZL) $215.5 $290.8 (25.9%) 37 33 Mirabela Nickel Ltd. (ASX:MBN) $727.8 $816.4 (10.8%) 87 108 Azimuth Resources Limited (ASX:AZH) $212.2 $171.8 23.5% 38 32 Energy Resources of Australia Ltd. (ASX:ERA) $719.6 $872.5 (17.5%) 88 96 Base Resources Limited (ASX:BSE) $207.2 $216.4 (4.3%) 39 36 ST Barbara Ltd. (ASX:SBM) $713.1 $713.1 0.0% 89 82 Rex Minerals Limited. (ASX:RXM) $202.0 $260.4 (22.4%) 40 47 Jupiter Mines Ltd. (ASX:JMS) $644.8 $523.0 23.3% 90 93 Straits Resources Limited (ASX:SRQ) $201.4 $225.7 (10.8%) 41 45 Sphere Minerals Limited (ASX:SPH) $635.5 $529.5 20.0% 91 113 ABM Resources NL (ASX:ABU) $200.1 $165.4 21.0% 42 50 CuDeco Ltd. (ASX:CDU) $583.6 $499.9 16.7% 92 97 Iron Ore Holdings Limited (ASX:IOH) $199.3 $210.9 (5.5%) 43 38 Discovery Metals Ltd. (ASX:DML) $570.0 $612.6 (7.0%) 93 87 Gujarat NRE Coking Coal Limited (ASX:GNM) $198.3 $242.9 (18.4%) 44 37 Gindalbie Metals Ltd. (ASX:GBG) $567.8 $627.0 (9.4%) 94 75 OM Holdings Limited (ASX:OMH) $195.8 $306.3 (36.1%) 45 40 Intrepid Mines Limited (ASX:IAU) $549.4 $595.5 (7.7%) 95 112 Norton Gold Fields Limited (ASX:NGF) $178.4 $165.7 7.7% 46 46 Grange Resources Limited (ASX:GRR) $542.2 $524.9 3.3% 96 106 Astron Ltd. (ASX:ATR) $175.9 $179.0 (1.7%) 47 51 Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited (ASX:SAR) $522.6 $447.0 16.9% 97 120 Murchison Metals Limited (ASX:MMX) $174.8 $132.7 31.7% 48 43 Kangaroo Resources Limited (ASX:KRL) $515.2 $532.3 (3.2%) 98 81 Aspire Mining Limited (ASX:AKM) $173.7 $263.7 (34.1%) 49 79 Flinders Mines Limited. (ASX:FMS) $510.0 $282.3 80.6% 99 107 Carabella Resources Limited (ASX:CLR) $172.7 $178.8 (3.4%) 50 53 Integra Mining Ltd. (ASX:IGR) $481.0 $443.0 8.6% 100 92 Nucoal Resources NL (ASX:NCR) $172.5 $227.8 (24.3%)Includes ASX Resource companies excluding oil and gas 2
  3. 3. DECEMBER 2011 Mkt cap (A$m) % Mkt cap (A$m) % Nov oct company 30-Nov-11 31-oct-11 change Nov oct company 30-Nov-11 31-oct-11 change 101 102 Blackgold International Hold. Ltd (ASX:BGG) $169.9 $197.2 (13.9%) 126 115 Highlands Pacific Limited (ASX:HIG) $109.6 $147.3 (25.6%) 102 94 Arafura Resources Limited (ASX:ARU) $165.6 $224.5 (26.2%) 127 167 Dragon Mountain Gold Ltd (ASX:DMG) $108.5 $81.5 33.2% 103 99 Marengo Mining Limited (ASX:MGO) $165.4 $200.5 (17.5%) 128 135 Doray Minerals Limited (ASX:DRM) $108.5 $113.8 (4.7%) 104 118 Deep Yellow Ltd. (ASX:DYL) $163.6 $141.1 16.0% 129 128 Sylvania Platinum Limited (ASX:SLP) $108.5 $123.5 (12.2%) 105 109 Cokal Limited (ASX:CKA) $161.7 $171.0 (5.5%) 130 121 Alcyone Resources Ltd (ASX:AYN) $107.2 $132.1 (18.9%) 106 119 African Iron Limited (ASX:AKI) $158.1 $140.5 12.5% 131 146 Stanmore Coal Limited (ASX:SMR) $106.2 $98.6 7.7% 107 104 Hillgrove Resources Ltd. (ASX:HGO) $150.8 $190.5 (20.8%) 132 125 Tigers Realm Coal Limited (ASX:TIG) $105.5 $129.2 (18.3%) 108 129 Orocobre Limited (ASX:ORE) $150.7 $122.8 22.7% 133 131 Robust Resources Limited (ASX:ROL) $104.8 $120.7 (13.2%) 109 105 Atlantic Ltd (ASX:ATI) $148.3 $182.9 (18.9%) 134 150 Red Hill Iron Ltd (ASX:RHI) $102.3 $94.4 8.4% 110 44 White Energy Company Limited (ASX:WEC) $147.0 $531.1 (72.3%) 135 141 Finders Resources Limited (ASX:FND) $100.8 $106.3 (5.2%) 111 103 Moly Mines Ltd. (ASX:MOL) $146.3 $194.4 (24.8%) 136 145 Dragon Mining Limited (ASX:DRA) $99.2 $99.2 0.0% 112 111 Mincor Resources NL (ASX:MCR) $145.1 $166.8 (13.0%) 137 126 Resource Generation Limited (ASX:RES) $98.0 $126.4 (22.4%) 113 123 Papillon Resources Limited (ASX:PIR) $143.3 $130.7 9.6% 138 133 Cerro Resources NL (ASX:CJO) $97.3 $119.8 (18.8%) 114 142 Kentor Gold Limited (ASX:KGL) $138.1 $105.1 31.3% 139 137 Tribune Resources Limited (ASX:TBR) $94.6 $111.7 (15.3%) 115 114 Kula Gold Limited (ASX:KGD) $132.9 $158.8 (16.3%) 140 140 Mungana Goldmines Ltd (ASX:MUX) $94.6 $110.3 (14.3%) 116 130 Crusader Resources Limited (ASX:CAS) $130.0 $121.2 7.3% 141 160 Resource and Investment NL (ASX:RNI) $93.7 $85.0 10.3% 117 101 South Boulder Mines Ltd. (ASX:STB) $127.3 $198.4 (35.8%) 142 136 African Energy Resources Limited (ASX:AFR) $93.1 $112.6 (17.3%) 118 117 Ausgold Limited (ASX:AUC) $126.7 $142.0 (10.8%) 143 139 Ironbark Zinc Ltd. (ASX:IBG) $92.1 $110.5 (16.7%) 119 122 Gold Road Resources Limited (ASX:GOR) $124.7 $131.3 (5.0%) 144 153 Iron Road Limited (ASX:IRD) $91.1 $93.9 (3.0%) 120 127 Metrocoal Ltd. (ASX:MTE) $121.1 $126.0 (3.9%) 145 165 Hot Chili Limited (ASX:HCH) $90.1 $82.8 8.8% 121 144 Rocklands Richfield Limited (ASX:RCI) $117.1 $100.9 16.1% 146 152 Centrex Metals Limited (ASX:CXM) $89.4 $94.1 (5.0%) 122 138 Azumah Resources Ltd (ASX:AZM) $117.0 $111.4 5.1% 147 151 Pacific Niugini Ltd (ASX:PNR) $89.3 $94.3 (5.3%) 123 124 Altona Mining Limited (ASX:AOH) $116.7 $129.7 (10.0%) 148 143 Voyager Resources Limited (ASX:VOR) $89.2 $101.6 (12.2%) 124 116 Cobar Consolidated Resources Ltd (ASX:CCU) $115.2 $146.1 (21.1%) 149 159 Venturex Resources Limited (ASX:VXR) $88.1 $85.9 2.5% 125 132 YTC Resources Limited (ASX:YTC) $114.6 $120.6 (5.0%) 150 162 PanTerra Gold Limited (ASX:PGI) $87.5 $84.1 4.0%Source: Capital IQnew enTranTs - november eXiTs - november24 Evolution Mining Limited (ASX:EVN) Hunnu Coal Limited (ASX:HUN)127 Dragon Mountain Gold Ltd (ASX:DMG) Conquest Mining Limited (ASX:CQT)141 Resource and Investment NL (ASX:RNI) Catalpa Resources Limited (ASX:CAH)144 Iron Road Limited (ASX:IRD) Exco Resources Ltd. (ASX:EXS)145 Hot Chili Limited (ASX:HCH) NKWE Platinum Ltd. (ASX:NKP)146 Centrex Metals Limited (ASX:CXM) Australasian Resources Ltd (ASX:ARH)147 Pacific Niugini Ltd (ASX:PNR) IMX Resources Ltd. (ASX:IXR)149 Venturex Resources Limited (ASX:VXR) Centaurus Metals Limited (ASX:CTM)150 PanTerra Gold Limited (ASX:PGI) Reed Resources Ltd. (ASX:RDR)Based on market capitalisation as at 30 November vs 31 OctoberGroup 150 Leaders and LaGGers - markeT capiTaLisaTion performance - november Leaders Laggers * Included material placement, acquisition and/or option conversion during month 3
  4. 4. Group 150Group 150 markeT capiTaLisaTion -5.2% 442.5 +23.0% Market Valuation (A$b) - Group 150asX indeX performance - november Group 150 mkT cap - by commodiTymerGer & acquisiTions - announced in november & ocTober percent premium - premium - Date Value consideration Target Acquirer Sought 1 Day prior 1 Month prior Announced (A$m) offered (%) (%) (%) 29-Nov-2011 Accent Resources N.L. (ASX:ACS) Xinyang Resources (HK) Limited 52.1 91 -12.0 3.1 Cash Magnitogorsk Iron & Steel Works 25-Nov-2011 Flinders Mines Limited. (ASX:FMS) 553.4 100 81.8 106.9 Cash (MICEX:MAGN) 31-Oct-2011 Laguna Resources NL (ASX:LRC) Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (ASX:KCN) 11.2 30 107.2 107.2 Cash 13-Oct-2011 Signature Metals Limited (ASX:SBL) LionGold Corp Ltd (SGX:A78) 48.9 100 49.3 29.4 Equity Iron Ore Holdings Limited, Phils Creek, Lamb 13-Oct-2011 Process Minerals International Pty Ltd. 42.0 100 - - Cash Creek, and Yandicoogina Creek 2-Oct-2011 Aston Resources Limited, Maules Creek Project J-Power Australia Pty. Ltd. 374.5 10 - - CashSource: Capital IQAnnounced Australian Resources (excluding oil and gas) Mergers and Acquisitions >A$10m4
  5. 5. DECEMBER 2011does m&a acTiviTy creaTe sharehoLder vaLue in The mininG indusTryBuilding on the September 2011 edition of Gresham Group 150 where we summarised our study results of the takeoverpremiums offered in recent M&A transactions, we investigated the thesis that M&A activity was value creative in the miningindustry. The measure of value creation was assessed by the change in market capitalisation of the predator and the targetbetween 1 week prior and 1 week and then 3 months after the announcement of the transaction.Although there is considerable “noise” in the dataset, in the form of varying forms of offer consideration, commodity specificfactors, transaction rationale/size and market dynamics, the evidence supports the value of the target firm increases as themarket evaluates and understands the transaction and the completion risk reduces.The analysis covers the M&A transactions announced in the past 2 years. Target change in Market capitalisation 1 week prior and 1 week 1 week prior and 3 months after announcement after announcement Bidder/predator 29% Average Bidder/predator 32% AverageSource: Capital IQ 5
  6. 6. Group 150does m&a acTiviTy creaTe sharehoLder vaLue in The mininG indusTryTThe review of the predators suggests that the market, especially in scrip offers initially sells the stock down as shareholdersswitch into the target. In certain circumstances, both the target and the predator increase in value, hence meeting the objectiveof creating shareholder value in the mining industry. predator change in Market capitalisation 1 week prior and 1 week 1 week prior and 3 months after announcement after announcement Bidder/predator -2% Average Bidder/predator 6% AverageSource: Capital IQ6
  7. 7. DECEMBER 2011base meTaLs - secTor performance Share price performance - November 2011 Copper Nickel ZincShare Price Performance Share price performance - Since 30 June 2011Share Price Performance Share price performance - Since 31 December 2010Share Price Performance 7
  8. 8. Group 150coaL - secTor performance Share price performance - November 2011Share Price Performance Share price performance - Since 30 June 2011Share Price Performance Share price performance - Since 31 December 2010Share Price Performance8
  9. 9. DECEMBER 2011diversified - secTor performance indusTriaL mineraLs - secTor performance Share price performance - November 2011Share Price Performance Share Price Performance Share price performance - Since 30 June 2011Share Price Performance Share Price Performance Share price performance - Since 31 December 2010Share Price Performance Share Price Performance 9
  10. 10. Group 150GoLd - secTor performance Share price performance - November 2011Share Price Performance Share price performance - Since 30 June 2011Share Price Performance Share price performance - Since 31 December 2010 159% 173% 126%Share Price Performance10
  11. 11. DECEMBER 2011iron ore - secTor performance Share price performance - November 2011Share Price Performance Share price performance - Since 30 June 2011Share Price Performance Share price performance - Since 31 December 2010Share Price Performance 11
  12. 12. Group 150pLaTinum - secTor performance uranium - secTor performance Share price performance - November 2011Share Price Performance Share Price Performance Share price performance - Since 30 June 2011Share Price Performance Share Price Performance Share price performance - Since 31 December 2010Share Price Performance Share Price Performance12
  13. 13. DECEMBER 2011consensus commodiTy price forecasTs - novemberGold (US$/oz) Silver (US$/OZ) $2,500 $60 $1,747 $1,825 $1,808 $2,000 $1,600 $50 $37.00 $36.75 $1,400 $32.80 $31.13 $40 $30.47 $1,500 $30 $1,000 $20 $500 $10 $0 $0 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015Copper (US$/lb) Nickel (US$/lb) $5.00 $3.97 $3.97 $16.00 $3.76 $3.90 $3.58 $11.20 $4.00 $12.00 $9.51 $9.53 $9.75 $7.94 $3.00 $8.00 $2.00 $1.00 $4.00 $0.00 $0.00 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015Zinc (US$/lb) Lead (US$/lb) $2.00 $2.00 $1.50 $1.13 $1.50 $1.20 $1.19 $1.18 $0.99 $1.08 $1.09 $1.06 $0.94 $0.96 $1.00 $1.00 $0.50 $0.50 $0.00 $0.00 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015Iron Ore Fines 62% (US$/mt) Uranium (US$/lb) $200 $167.50 $100 $140.00 $70.00 $75.00 $130.90 $130.00 $64.50 $150 $75 $52.25 $100 $50 $50 $25 $0 $0 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015AUD:USD NYMEX (US$/bbl) $1.25 $1.00 $1.00 $1.02 $1.00 $150 $126.50 $0.99 $113.00 $109.00 $1.00 $100.36 $96.00 $100 $0.75 $0.50 $50 $0.25 $0.00 $0 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015 Spot 2012 2013 2014 2015Source: Bloomberg Consensus Estimates - Median / High / Low 13
  14. 14. recenT resources TransacTions Group 150 Mergers and Acquisitions Mergers and Acquisitions 2010 2009 GRAM 2009 2009 2008 2008 2006 Advised BHP Advised BG Advised Guandong Advised Allied Gold Advised Kalahari Advised Gem Advised IAMGOLD Billiton on its Group on its $1bn Rising on its $216m on its $54m Minerals on its Diamonds on its Corporation on its $204m offer for takeover offer for cornerstone acquisition of $140m proposed $300m acquisition $265m acquisition United Minerals Pure Energy investment in Pan Australian merger with of Kimberley of Gallery Gold. Corporation. Resources Aust. Solomons Gold. Extract Resources. Diamonds. Limited. TakeoverDefence Takeover Defence 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2007 2007 Advised Polaris Advised Indophil Advised Advised Energy Advised Brandrill Advised Summit Advised Tethyan on Metals NL on on $545m Centaurus Metals on its $86m Limited on its Resources on its its $220m $178m takeover recommended Resources on its proportional takeover $45m takeover A$1.2bn takeover competing takeover offer by Mineral offer from Zijin $20m merger offer by China offer by Ausdrill by Paladin Energy. offer by Crosby and Resources with Glengarry Guangdong Nuclear Limited. Antogafasta/Barrick. Limited. Resources. Power Group. Strategic Advisory, JointJoint Ventures and Capital Markets Strategic Advisory, Ventures and Capital Markets 2010 2010 2009 2008 2009/08 2008 2008 Advised BHP Introduced Advised BHP Advised Advised Iluka on its Advised Advised Iluka Billiton on its Denham Capital to Billiton on the Bannerman $114m Murchison Metals Resources on its US$116bn iron Trans Tasman disposal of the Resources on its institutional on its joint venture $54m Narama coal ore production Resources resulting Yabulu Nickel financing with placement and with Mitsubishi. divestment to joint venture with in NZ iron sands refinery. Resource Capital $353m accelerated Xstrata. Rio Tinto. investment. Funds. right issue. Gresham Advisory partners Limited A.B.N. 97 003 344 269 Level 17, 167 Macquarie Street, Level 10, 1 Collins Street, Level 3, 28 The Esplanade, Sydney NSW 2000 Melbourne VIC 3000 Perth WA 6000 Telephone: 61 2 9221 5133 Telephone: 61 3 9664 0300 Telephone: 61 8 9486 7077 Facsimile: 61 2 9221 6814 Facsimile: 61 3 9650 7722 Facsimile: 61 8 9486 7024 Website: www.gresham.com.auTerms and ConditionsInformation contained in this publicationThe opinions, advice, recommendations and other information contained in this publication, whether express or implied, are published or made by Gresham Advisory Partners Limited (ABN 88 093 611 413), Australian financial services license (247113), and by its officers and employees(collectively “Gresham Advisory Partners”) in good faith in relation to the facts known to it at the time of preparation.Gresham Advisory Partners has prepared this publication without consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any individual investor, and you should not rely on the publication for the purpose of making a financial decision.To whom this information is providedThis publication is only made available to persons who are wholesale clients within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. 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